Get excited... change is NOW with a youth wave!!!

[Aussie Joe]

25 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Why do you presume a year of Edwards and Rapp not starting will convince people to pay them to start? Especially on Edwards. His ability to remain healthy was the question mark. Has playing a few snaps as a 6th OL convinced people his body can hold up to the rigours of a full NFL season? 

 

 

 

Edward’s is a starter in this league … he was injured in 2022… but before that had started 40 games on his rookie deal  the prior three years including all 21 games in the Rams SB year ..

 

He is very clearly behind McGovern and Torrence here …. Even if he is not leaving for the money then he needs to go elsewhere  to increase playing opportunities…in the hope of making some money in his prime years ..

 

Rapp was playing pretty well by the end of the year .. I would be interested in what was said when he came to the Bills about whether he had a starting role with the team when Poyer/Hyde moved on… if that’s not going to happen then I can’t see him staying again at the same money …

 

 

Edited February 5 by Aussie Joe

[cage]

9 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

ya the OL especially was a massive concern that changed immediately into a strength after 1 off season..

Also hopeful for guys like Shorter and Darien in 43 situations can be more added youth. I'm very optimistic for the future

 

Dorian is going to be a good player!  Very fast... he made some mistakes last year at times, but he'll grow and be much improved next season

[The Jokeman]

8 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Are you willing to move on from some or all of

 

white

poyer

morse

knox?

 

if they did it would help the cap now and in the future. 

White, I love him but he's just worn down, last year he wasn't himself and now he's coming off another injury. I'd keep him but at a lesser cap number otherwise I'd move on.

 

Poyer, he's under contract keep him 2024 but after that it's time to say goodbye.

 

Morse like Poyer keep him the season but afterwards time to go.

 

Knox he's breaking down and until we have a good backup TE I keep him around maybe sign a younger vet to develop as a 3rd TE eventual 2nd (see Irv Smith type). 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

11 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

I thought you wanted to  trade away our draft picks though to move up in the first and take a WR? 

 

We have 10 draft picks.

 

If you think Beane drafts 10 players and doesn't use any of those assets to trade up throughout the draft, you're nuts.

 

If we were to trade our 1st & 4th again to move up a couple spots or even our 1st, 3rd, & 4th to move up 6 or 7 spots to get OUR guy, the Bills would still have 8 or 9 total draft picks.  At that point you rely on your scouting team.

 

And here's the thing... Beane has been drafting guys in the later rounds who still end up playing on active rosters in the NFL.  The problem has been that the Bills have been such a veteran team that those players can't displace the older Bills players.

 

I could see the Bills getting serious contributors at RB, WR and DT in the mid to late rounds.  Maybe the Safety of our future.

[DCofNC]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Brandon Beane and the Bills?

Along with all the idiots here convinced he was the next great WR in the league.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

Edward’s is a starter in this league … he was injured in 2022… but before that had started 40 games on his rookie deal  the prior three years including all 21 games in the Rams SB year ..

 

He is very clearly behind McGovern and Torrence here …. Even if he is not leaving for the money then he needs to go elsewhere  to increase playing opportunities…in the hope of making some money in his prime years ..

 

Rapp was playing pretty well by the end of the year .. I would be interested in what was said when he came to the Bills about whether he had a starting role with the team when Poyer/Hyde moved on… if that’s not going to happen then I can’t see him staying again at the same money …

 

But the reason Edwards didn't get a better deal last year still stands. I agree he is a decent starting level guard.... but there is a reason he was there for the Bills when he was in free agency last year. What makes you think after zero starts and a limited role he is more likely to have interest this time around? 

 

Similar with Rapp. There was a reason he was available. And maybe someone likes what they saw from him in a dime role and wants to pay him as a starter. Not sure I see it personally. I don't want him starting here. Maybe another team feels different. 

[hondo in seattle]

12 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I'm gonna be honest... it took me some time to get over our season.

 

I'm good now.

 

Now I'm excited not just for next season, but our future.

 

First of all, Buffalo has the 2nd youngest OC/DC combo in the NFL. Players advocate for these guys who have plenty of juice, so let em shake us all season long! 

 

Second, and most important, a lot of people are worried about our CAP while ignoring the 10 draft picks plus 9 future reserves we have in the waiting. Combine those with young stars already on the team like Bernard, Kincaid, Shakir, Brown, Benford & Rousseau and this team is about to get a lot younger as guys like Hyde, Poyer, Miller and Diggs exit in the next 2 or 3 years.

 

To me, the future looks bright. Our most important player is about to become the veteran presence as everyone else around him gets younger. And it's by necessity because of our CAP situation.

 

But don't be afraid of that... the Bills since McBeane have been in place have maintained one of the oldest rosters in the NFL. Always low to mid 20s, as far as ranking in the NFL... not as far as age.  That means we've always been one of the 10 oldest teams in the NFL. 

 

Now we inject youth. This offseason it's inevitably going to come in the WR corps & DL especially, but it'll shift across positions moving forward.

 

And we'll have a young OC & DC with a lot of juice to connect with them and a hypercompetitive QB with a handshake for everyone and Richard jokes to get them playing for him

 

This team is actually going through some drastic changes this offseason... it has me excited!!!

 

I love the enthusiasm!

 

But I'm not convinced the youth of our OC/DC duo gives us a competitive advantage.  

 

If I was a soldier going to war, I'd be worried about being led by some kid fresh from the academy who's never been under fire before.  I'd rather go to war with the grizzled old vet with a reputation as a tactical genius who's already fought and won many battles.  

 

But who knows?  Maybe both Brady and Babich turn out to be tactical geniuses.   I can only hope.  

[Aussie Joe]

37 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But the reason Edwards didn't get a better deal last year still stands. I agree he is a decent starting level guard.... but there is a reason he was there for the Bills when he was in free agency last year. What makes you think after zero starts and a limited role he is more likely to have interest this time around? 

 

Similar with Rapp. There was a reason he was available. And maybe someone likes what they saw from him in a dime role and wants to pay him as a starter. Not sure I see it personally. I don't want him starting here. Maybe another team feels different. 

Because something happened one year .. doesn’t mean that it will the next … Edward’s survived the year with no concussions… with limited playing time admittedly..

 

Edward’s would be crazy to stay here entrenched on the bench behind young established starters wasting his prime years …he signed before they drafted Torrence last year… probably saw a path to starting by beating out Bates .. that’s gone now …if he needs to show more playing time then here is not the best place … 

 

Didn’t Rapp start games this year when Hyde was injured ? They are going to have to get by on the cheap in a few positions in 2024 … seeing if Rapp can be a starter at Safety could be something they might go with … perhaps in conjunction with a third round safety and Poyer  in the mix … would need to throw him a bit more extra money if they head down this path .. Not my preferred solution … just putting it out there as a cheap option for one of several problems they have in 2024 

 

Edited February 5 by Aussie Joe

[transplantbillsfan]

13 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Hyde & Tre are likely gone this spring.  Von, Diggs, Knox and Poyer will probably only be around one more year then we wave goodbye.  We absolutely must emphasize offense (wrs) this April.  We've neglected Josh long enough. The core is solid with Josh, Cook and Kincaid/Shakir. But reliable supplemental wrs better than Gabe and an aging Diggs are necessary. The youth movement will start this year. As will Josh's 2nd window.  

 

Hyde is gone.  I think people need to come to grips with the fact that it's way more likely that Tre is still on the roster next season, just under a reworked deal.

 

If you listen to any of the experts on the CAP stuff like Mike Giniti from Spotrac or Greg Thompsett from Cover_1, they say what will almost certainly happen with Tre is a reworked deal

11 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

ya the OL especially was a massive concern that changed immediately into a strength after 1 off season..

Also hopeful for guys like Shorter and Darien in 43 situations can be more added youth. I'm very optimistic for the future

 

I think Dorian Williams is going to be an important X-factor moving forward.  So many NFL offenses shifting to 21 and 12 personnel and so many NFL defenses are going back to using 3 and even 4 LBs pretty frequently.  The Chiefs and Lions are 2 great examples of that.

[dpberr]

I'd love to see the Bills reduce their dependency on old vets.  They get you through most of the season, but they don't show up in January so what's the point? 

 

I don't want to see Poyer, Floyd or Jones with 2 year contracts with starting roles.  I'd prefer the Bills not sign them at all.  

 

They should get out of the Tre White business too.  

[transplantbillsfan]

11 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Are you willing to move on from some or all of

 

white

poyer

morse

knox?

 

if they did it would help the cap now and in the future. 

 

Moving on from Knox this year doesn't financially make sense.  Ask the CAP experts.  Also, Knox is actually a huge asset for this team in 12 Personnel, which we're likely to use a lot of.

 

I could see us moving on from Poyer, but probably not because I think McDermott will want him in there as a veteran presence to teach everyone else.

 

See my other comments about White.  I doubt we move him, but we'll restructure his contract.

 

No, I think Morse stays for similar reasons as Poyer.  He's also still playing at a pretty high level.

[jkeerie]

11 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

We’re not far away with 10 picks.  Everyone knows we will take WR’s, Safeties, and a DT.

Wouldn't surprise me if they take 2 or more of each position.  The draft isn't as solid at EDGE, but has some depth at DT.

[Mark Vader]

9 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

I’m no cap expert to be sure but if what I’m reading here is true about Von then I’d cut him loose. He contributed literally nothing this past season. While it hurts to pay a guy not to play for you (I absolutely love how Brad Pitt tells an aging David Justice that in the movie Money Ball) , the ‘savings’ sound like they can be well used to buy way more than he’s going to contribute. 

Yes, and look at how many World Series championships the A's have won since then.

[billsfan_34]

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I have said it multiple times but they are in a MUCH healthier roster place this offseason than last. 

 

Yes they will lose their safety axis finally. And they need to re-stock the Dline, but the have some rookie contract contributors. This time a year ago the 2022 draft looked like it might be a dud. Instead we have four starters from it and then the first two picks of 2023 look like hits. The Bills needed that. And they need to stack another class like that now.... while finding that elusive receiver at the same time ideally. 

This receiver crop is deep. Ive been on record saying if Legette is there it is a no brainer.

3 hours ago, cage said:

 

Dorian is going to be a good player!  Very fast... he made some mistakes last year at times, but he'll grow and be much improved next season

Agreed! Williams showed more than adequate at the end of the season. I think he is going to be a stud. The kid can lay the lumber down too!

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Hyde is gone.  I think people need to come to grips with the fact that it's way more likely that Tre is still on the roster next season, just under a reworked deal.

 

If you listen to any of the experts on the CAP stuff like Mike Giniti from Spotrac or Greg Thompsett from Cover_1, they say what will almost certainly happen with Tre is a reworked deal

 

I think Dorian Williams is going to be an important X-factor moving forward.  So many NFL offenses shifting to 21 and 12 personnel and so many NFL defenses are going back to using 3 and even 4 LBs pretty frequently.  The Chiefs and Lions are 2 great examples of that.

Well Tre's deal better be reworked all the way down to align with his lack of production.  Players don't bounce back from consecutive ACL- Achilles injuries. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Hyde is gone.  I think people need to come to grips with the fact that it's way more likely that Tre is still on the roster next season, just under a reworked deal.

 

If you listen to any of the experts on the CAP stuff like Mike Giniti from Spotrac or Greg Thompsett from Cover_1, they say what will almost certainly happen with Tre is a reworked deal

 

I wouldn't say it is "almost certain" but the reason it is a real runner is because it makes too much sense for both sides. Tre has no guarantees left on his deal. The dead money the Bills are on the hook for if they cut him is bonus money that in real terms was paid long ago. 

 

Basically he costs $33m over the next two years in cap charge. $10m of that the Bills are already on the hook for 'cos it is already paid. So essentially the next two years is $23m in new money but Tre wouldn't see a penny of it if he was cut. Of course he could say "well cut me, I back myself to get $11.5m AAV for two years on the open market after playing to games in two and a half years and when I probably can't go until training camp." But that would be foolish on his part IMO. 

 

Much more likely the Bills say let's cut that $23m to $14m. We will guarantee you half of it. And structure it something like: 

 

Year	Guaranteed Salary	Unguaranteed Salary	New bonus (guaranteed)	Already paid bonus	Cap Charge
2024	$2m	$1m	$1.25m	$6m	$10.25m
2025	-	$6.5m	$1.25m	$4m	$11.75m
2026	VOID	VOID	$1.25m	-	-
2027	VOID	VOID	$1.25m	-	-

 

That basically gives you the same saving in 2024 as an outright cut would, Tre pockets $7m right away and gets to stay and rehab in an organisation that knows him, knows his body, knows his personality and ultimately coaches that know his game. And it still means you can get put after 2024 for a dead hit of just over $6m. 

 

Maybe Tre refuses to negotiate and says keep me on my deal or but me but I gotta think this kind of option is attractive to him as well as the Bills. Instead of $10.4m yearly cash that he won't get it is $7m yearly cash that he will plus access to the Bills trainers, medical facility, rehab support and a chance to play and show his worth on a defense he knows. 

 

[rusty shackleford]

[transplantbillsfan]

7 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I love the enthusiasm!

 

But I'm not convinced the youth of our OC/DC duo gives us a competitive advantage.  

 

If I was a soldier going to war, I'd be worried about being led by some kid fresh from the academy who's never been under fire before.  I'd rather go to war with the grizzled old vet with a reputation as a tactical genius who's already fought and won many battles.  

 

But who knows?  Maybe both Brady and Babich turn out to be tactical geniuses.   I can only hope.  

 

McDermott is the General leading them. The Coordinators are the Captains.

 

How did it work with a geriatric DC in Frazier?

[transplantbillsfan]

@GunnerBill I agree with several of your takes in this thread, but not on Von.

 

He had an ACL tear and finally started showing something in the last couple games of the season. Outside of Groot, Von may have been the best DL against KC.

 

The financials to cut him just don't make sense knowing that he was exactly what we signed him for before his injury in 2022 and that he was less than a year and 2 months out of his injury in the KC game.

 

He's a 1st ballot HOFer who was still playing like one at age 33 until he got injured.

 

If he's 75-80% of Von Miller, he's worth it to keep under that CAP hit. Floyd was a lottery ticket this year we hit on. A lot of those same vet Edge Rushers that signed in that late wave were total busts.

 

Bird in the hand...

[HappyDays]

17 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Tre - I'd be willing to part ways but I'd try and renegotiate first, give him some guaranteed money (he has none) in exchange for an actual pay cut; 

Poyer - I'd keep another year, small restructure to turn $3m of his $4.7m base salary into restructure bonus adding a void year in 25 saving us $1.5m in cap space and getting his hit down to c. $6m (I just think losing both of your two mainstay safeties in one year is best avoided and Poyer still had a good season and was an above average starting safety even his best days are behind him)

Morse - I'd be willing to part ways if needs be - again you could add a void year and spread the hit out if you wanted to but I think I'd hold onto him until I see whether I get a guy in the draft (either at guard or center, because McGovern can play center as well)

Knox - No. We didn't see the best of Dawson this year with the injuries. I still think for now we need an all rounder with his skillset while we focus on Dalton as a receiving weapon. 

 

 

The guy I am more willing than most to move on from and take my medicine this offseason is Von Miller. He saves me c.$7m against the cap as a post 1 June cut. Okay it is $17m additional dead cap on what they were originally planning for (the $15m dead money next year is already baked in) and that isn't ideal but I don't think he is any more than a backup at this point. So can I get a younger rotational player using that c.$7m? I think I can. 

 

Tre - I think cutting him is a no-brainer, and the way McDermott and Beane talked about him in their final presser I expect it to happen. I wouldn't even offer a paycut as ruthless as that sounds. Our CB room without him is still as sound as any position group on the roster. I'd also not bring Dane back, not after his abysmal divisional round performance. Just draft another zone CB in the 6th/7th like we've done in recent years and I'm sure they'll be fine if called upon for spot duty.

I would also extend Rasul Douglas in a way that lowers his $9 million cap hit this year. Ditto for Taron Johnson and his $12 million cap hit. When all is said and done we should be spending a total of maybe $20 million on the entire CB room (EDIT: $30 million with Tre's dead cap hit). This is the clearest spot on the roster to create cap space.

 

Poyer - A few weeks ago I would have said cut him, but I agree having to replace him and Hyde in one offseason would be a real challenge. Cutting him only saves $5.4 million which would just go to signing his replacement anyways. Can't say I feel too strongly one way or the other though. Most importantly I just don't want them to pay more than $5.4 million for the position... No big game hunting for a safety in FA. We have way more important needs. If keeping Poyer helps them resist that temptation, I'm good with it.

 

Morse - Morse at his season ending presser said "I would love to come back if they'll have me." This made me raise an eyebrow. Players still under contract don't usually talk like that unless they have some inkling that the team is preparing to move on. Bates is a capable center and we may be able to get him to agree to a paycut, plus we have Alec Anderson who seemed to perform well last year (albeit in training camp & preseason), and we still have the draft where you can find decent center prospects on day 3. So yeah I would definitely cut Morse, this is pretty close to a no-brainer for me as well. For a cap strapped team you have to start with the least important positions on the roster... Center fits that bill.

 

Knox - There is no scenario where unloading Knox helps our cap situation, so however I feel about the player it's not even a conversation. Next offseason however I feel he is very likely to be cut unless he rebounds big time.

 

Von - I am torn on Von. On one hand I thought I saw some flashes in the final 3 games (including playoffs). I can see the argument to just move on and eat our losses, but that glimmer of hope that he could rebound to something close to what he was in 2022 gives me pause... All things considered I would personally accept the risk of keeping him and hope for the best. As sad as it is to say he is probably our best possibility of having a top tier edge rusher next year and that role is too important to give up on.

 

Edited February 6 by HappyDays