Should the Bills trade up for their own “Julio Jones”

[Doc]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

Goal posts not moved. no obvious talent for evaluating a position of significant need, category WR.  If you can't diagnose the problem, you probably are not very good at solving the problem, logic dictates.

 

The roster needed and needs WRs...tell me, if they let Davis walk, how many Beane drafted WRs (all time) are still on the roster?

 

Beane has treated the WR draft as an afterthought, relying instead on an endless stream of FA WRs parading through for short stints in Buffalo on their way out of the league.  

 

Sure he's shown a talent for evaluating WR.  He traded a 1st for Diggs and drafted a #2 and #3 WR in the 4th and 5th rounds.  Since Diggs has been the undisputed #1 WR, they weren't going to draft a WR high but now that he's getting older, that will change.  And Davis, who you like and they’ve been hoping develops into a dependable #2, would have been too expensive to keep anyway.  

 

When Davis walks, they'll have at least 2 drafted WRs: the high round pick this year and Shakir.  It could even be 3 with Shorter.

 

 

Edited February 5 by Doc

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

This was because we had a porn watcher as a GM...he was also an idiot. Watkins made most of his yards out of screenplays and Buffalo didn't run those at that time. If that wasn't enough...right after drafting Sammy the Bills stated that they were still looking for a big, tall red zone target at WR. Hello, Mike Evans at @ #7...

 

 LBer Kahlil Mack, OT Jake Matthews, and 13 others went on to make the Pro Bowl in the first round that year 2014. Doug Whaley wanted to bolster his personal pick at QB in EJ with Watkins... who never made the Pro Bowl.

Just to clarify, Mike Evans was gone by the time the Bills would have picked (at #9). Beckham was still on the board, however. He went at #11. 

 

I will say this about Sammy Watkins: before the injuries began to chronically diminish his game, Watkins looked as good as any of those other receivers.  People forget how Watkins could at times utterly dominate opponents in his first couple of seasons. 

[Mr. WEO]

23 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Sure he's shown a talent for evaluating WR.  He traded a 1st for Diggs and drafted a #2 and #3 WR in the 4th and 5th rounds.  Since Diggs has been the undisputed #1 WR, they weren't going to draft a WR high but now that he's getting older, that will change.  And Davis, who you like and they’ve been hoping develops into a dependable #2, would have been too expensive to keep anyway.  

 

When Davis walks, they'll have at least 2 drafted WRs: the high round pick this year and Shakir.  It could even be 3 with Shorter.

 

 

 

Why wouldn't you draft another WR high even with Diggs?  That's an odd take.

 

Cinci took Burrow and Higgins in the same draft, despite having Tyler Boyd--and then drafted Chase (#5 overall) one year after Burrow and Higgins (33rd overall).   Dallas drafted Lamb (5th overall) despite having Cooper.  Miami brought in Hill, even though they drafted a 1000+ WR (Waddle at #6 overall) the year before.  SF drafted Aiyuk (in the 1st), despite drafting Samuel the year before and Kittle 2 years before.  That's 3 teams that spent high on WR despite having a solid room already.

 

Anyway...2 drafted WR on the roster after 7 drafts?--and both of them in the last 2 drafts.  

 

There were 3 drafts before the Diggs trade.  WR was a need.  They drafted Zay Jones in 2017, then got rid of him 2 years later.   The next year they took Josh Allen...and traded up for Edmunds, with Ridley and DJ Moore just below.  Still needing a true WR1 (John Brown was a flash in the pan for 2 teams) in 2019, Beane went with Cody Ford AJ Brown and Metcalf there. 

 

Can anyone demonstrate that Beane has recognized the need for WR and addressed it significantly in the draft (with picks, not picks given away)the past 7 years?

 

Currently, an aging Diggs ("1st rounder"), Shakir as a #3/4, and a guy drafted straight to the IR.

 

 

[Doc]

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

Why wouldn't you draft another WR high even with Diggs?  That's an odd take.

 

Cinci took Burrow and Higgins in the same draft, despite having Tyler Boyd--and then drafted Chase (#5 overall) one year after Burrow and Higgins (33rd overall).   Dallas drafted Lamb (5th overall) despite having Cooper.  Miami brought in Hill, even though they drafted a 1000+ WR (Waddle at #6 overall) the year before.  SF drafted Aiyuk (in the 1st), despite drafting Samuel the year before and Kittle 2 years before.  That's 3 teams that spent high on WR despite having a solid room already.

 

Anyway...2 drafted WR on the roster after 7 drafts?--and both of them in the last 2 drafts.  

 

There were 3 drafts before the Diggs trade.  WR was a need.  They drafted Zay Jones in 2017, then got rid of him 2 years later.   The next year they took Josh Allen...and traded up for Edmunds, with Ridley and DJ Moore just below.  Still needing a true WR1 (John Brown was a flash in the pan for 2 teams) in 2019, Beane went with Cody Ford AJ Brown and Metcalf there. 

 

Can anyone demonstrate that Beane has recognized the need for WR and addressed it significantly in the draft (with picks, not picks given away)the past 7 years?

 

Currently, an aging Diggs ("1st rounder"), Shakir as a #3/4, and a guy drafted straight to the IR.

 

The only odd take is that you believe the Bills haven't drafted a WR on Day 1 or 2 because Beane and/or McD believe that Beane has no talent for evaluating WRs.  What other teams do has no bearing on what the Bills' strategy has been at WR, and in the draft in general, since Diggs arrived.

 

Now, you can criticize their strategy.  And if they don't take a WR high this year, most will do just that.  But if he does, best to wait and see how that pick turns out before passing judgment on his WR evaluation skills.

 

Edited February 5 by Doc

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

 

The only odd take is that you believe the Bills haven't drafted a WR on Day 1 or 2 because Beane and/or McD believe that Beane has no talent for evaluating WRs.  What other teams do has no bearing on what the Bills' strategy has been at WR, and in the draft in general, since Diggs arrived.

 

Now, you can criticize their strategy.  And if they don't take a WR high this year, most will do just that.  But if he does, best to wait and see how that pick turns out before passing judgment on his WR evaluation skills.

 

 

no I believe they can't understand the need AND draft for it based on their evaluation of guys who are available.  The failure to draft a single WR higher than the 4th round despite the chronic need is simple stark proof of this.  

 

So you believe they have been correct in not drafting one "high" because they got Diggs....but now they should draft high despite having Diggs.  Because he's in decline?

 

If they are really good at evaluating draft talent, then they aren't very good at evaluating guys they picked over WRs.

 

Edited February 5 by Mr. WEO

[Nihilarian]

6 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Just to clarify, Mike Evans was gone by the time the Bills would have picked (at #9). Beckham was still on the board, however. He went at #11. 

 

I will say this about Sammy Watkins: before the injuries began to chronically diminish his game, Watkins looked as good as any of those other receivers.  People forget how Watkins could at times utterly dominate opponents in his first couple of seasons. 

Buffalo selected Watkins at the #4 spot before Mack at #5, and Evans at #7. Barr was selected by Minn at #9.

 

The kid had one season of 1047 yards and 9 TDs, and that was with 96 targets, 60 receptions a 62.5 catch percentage. In three seasons in Buffalo and played in 37 of 48 games. 

 

Mike Evans has played for Tampa for 10 seasons and has yet to have less than 1000 yards in a season. 

[Doc]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

no I believe they can't understand the need AND draft for it based on their evaluation of guys who are available.  The failure to draft a single WR higher than the 4th round despite the chronic need is simple stark proof of this.  

 

So you believe they have been correct in not drafting one "high" because they got Diggs....but now they should draft high despite having Diggs.  Because he's in decline?

 

If they are really good at evaluating draft talent, then they aren't very good at evaluating guys they picked over WRs.

 

I don't know if not drafting a WR high until now was a good move.  I think they were hoping Davis would solidify the #2 spot.  And they did provide Josh with a receiver (Kincaid) last draft.  Also remember that they had to fire Dorsey mid-season.

 

In any case, we'll see how good they are at drafting WRs.  I fully expect one to be taken with their first pick this year.

Edited February 6 by Doc

[Alphadawg7]

On 2/3/2024 at 10:54 AM, DJB said:

In the 2012 draft Atlanta traded up to get Julio Jones. Here is the breakdown of the deal;

 

 #6: Cleveland → Atlanta. (D) Cleveland traded this pick to Atlanta for Atlanta's first (27th overall, which later became #26), second (59th) and fourth-rounder (124th) and also Atlanta's first- and fourth-round selections in 2012.

 

Bills are in win now mode. We need an elite WR to put us over the top. Enter one of Malik Nabers (who I prefer) or Odunze. 
 

Is the time right now to do this with Josh and our window ?

 

Or should I put down the pipe and stick to trashing Tua? 

 

We have an insane amount of FA's on the defensive side of the ball, we really need our draft capital this year.  So I don't think any type of big trade up is something Beane is going to look at for any position.  

 

However, Beane isn't afraid to make smaller moves to go get the guy he covets.  So its possible we make a small move up, but I just don't find any sort of expensive move up plausible, especially given the riches in this draft at WR.  This is a very deep class and there are going to be WR's who come from all over this draft that turn into real players in the NFL.  Id rather double up on WR in this draft than trade a bounty to get one.  

[Thurman#1]

On 2/5/2024 at 3:48 AM, FireChans said:

Imo, saying if they won the Super Bowl, it was a good tactic is a very simplistic and again, imo, wrong way to evaluate personnel decisions.

 

The Chiefs drafted CEH in the first and went to two SB’s and won one, potentially two, while he was on the team. Does that make drafting him the right decision? I don’t think so.

 

 

 

It is indeed very simplistic. Like many things that are obviously correct.

 

And I wasn't saying saying that winning the Super Bowl validates every single decision you've made, of course.

 

I was saying that if you take a massive risk, make a decision to break one of the standard rules of football, and it doesn't clearly work out

 

And don't trade up and give away major valuable picks for a non-QB is one of the standard draft rules. Break it and you had better be right. Whether they were right on that trade is at best questionable, but winning a Super Bowl after making that kind of a decision puts that decision beyond reasonable criticism. Taking that risk, ignoring the rule that had been proven again and again over time, didn't prevent you from reaching the ultimate goal.

 

The Chiefs WON the Super Bowl. The Falcons did NOT. There's a massive difference there.

 

 

Edited February 6 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

We have an insane amount of FA's on the defensive side of the ball, we really need our draft capital this year.  So I don't think any type of big trade up is something Beane is going to look at for any position.  

 

However, Beane isn't afraid to make smaller moves to go get the guy he covets.  So its possible we make a small move up, but I just don't find any sort of expensive move up plausible, especially given the riches in this draft at WR.  This is a very deep class and there are going to be WR's who come from all over this draft that turn into real players in the NFL.  Id rather double up on WR in this draft than trade a bounty to get one.  

 

 

Yup. This.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It is indeed very simplistic. Like many things that are obviously correct.

 

And I wasn't saying saying that winning the Super Bowl validates every single decision you've made, of course.

 

I was saying that if you take a massive risk, make a decision to break one of the standard rules of football, and it doesn't clearly work out

 

And don't trade up and give away major valuable picks for a non-QB is one of the standard draft rules. Break it and you had better be right. Whether they were right on that trade is at best questionable, but winning a Super Bowl after making that kind of a decision puts that decision beyond reasonable criticism. Taking that risk, ignoring the rule that had been proven again and again over time, didn't prevent you from reaching the ultimate goal.

 

The Chiefs WON the Super Bowl. The Falcons did NOT. There's a massive difference there.

 

 

 

While I agree with all of this I don't think it means the Falcons were wrong on Julio Jones. First - they would have won a Superbowl if Kyle Shanahan had literally just called a run instead of a pass. They didn't even need to gain yards on the run. Second - Julio Jones was the best receiver in the NFL in his prime and top 3 or 4 for almost his entire run with the Falcons. 

 

They ignored what I agree is a sound rule not to trade up with big assets for a non-QB - but they WERE right. It did clearly work out for them and Julio Jones will end up in the Hall of Fame. 

 

I agree that when you do it and you get it wrong then winning a Superbowl gets you a free pass in a sense, but when you do it you don't only get it right if you win a Superbowl. 

 

It is a sound principle to draft by, but the Falcons and Julio are an example where ignoring that sound principle was still the right decision. 

[Mr. WEO]

11 hours ago, Doc said:

 

I don't know if not drafting a WR high until now was a good move.  I think they were hoping Davis would solidify the #2 spot.  And they did provide Josh with a receiver (Kincaid) last draft.  Also remember that they had to fire Dorsey mid-season.

 

In any case, we'll see how good they are at drafting WRs.  I fully expect one to be taken with their first pick this year.

 

Obviously it was not a good move.  Hoping your 4th round pick would become a leading WR2 isn't a great 7 year plan.  That's how not good at drafting WR they are.  Need more? Proehl, McCloud, Hodgins, Stevenson, Shakir, Shorter.  Out of 51 draft picks. 

 

Dorsey obviously has nothing to do with this.  

[dave mcbride]

13 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Buffalo selected Watkins at the #4 spot before Mack at #5, and Evans at #7. Barr was selected by Minn at #9.

 

The kid had one season of 1047 yards and 9 TDs, and that was with 96 targets, 60 receptions a 62.5 catch percentage. In three seasons in Buffalo and played in 37 of 48 games. 

 

Mike Evans has played for Tampa for 10 seasons and has yet to have less than 1000 yards in a season. 

I am assuming no trade, which is the real issue because they lost a first round pick in the process. Not good.

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Obviously it was not a good move.  Hoping your 4th round pick would become a leading WR2 isn't a great 7 year plan.  That's how not good at drafting WR they are.  Need more? Proehl, McCloud, Hodgins, Stevenson, Shakir, Shorter.  Out of 51 draft picks. 

 

Dorsey obviously has nothing to do with this.  

All true but it’s not as if the Bills simply took a pass each round. The real problem is who they drafted instead of a WR. So fast forward to 2024 and our Defensive roster (where we chose to spend our draft picks) is STILL in worse shape than the offensive side. That’s the real problem. 

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

All true but it’s not as if the Bills simply took a pass each round. The real problem is who they drafted instead of a WR. So fast forward to 2024 and our Defensive roster (where we chose to spend our draft picks) is STILL in worse shape than the offensive side. That’s the real problem. 

 

 

Yes I covered that.  The evaluations of some of those guys was even worse.

 

 

[QCity]

It's easy to justify trading up for a WR if you pretend you're getting Julio Jones. But you aren't guaranteed that.

[billsfan89]

It depends on various factors such as,  what needs the Bills have remaining after free agency, the cost of a trade-up, and for what player are they trading up. I have no issues with packaging picks 28, 60, and 205 for a pick in the 10-12 range for a really good WR if the Bills are not having many glaring needs on the roster. However, I am not going to trade up to pick 4 to get Marvin Harrison Jr, if the cost is picks 28, 60, 99, 128, and two future firsts. As good of a prospect as Harrision Jr is giving up most of your draft picks in one draft and mortgaging a big portion of your draft future in giving up back-to-back picks is not a great idea as with injuries and the chance a player is good not great (like Sammy Watkins) giving up so much for a non-QB is more likely to backfire than work. 

 

The Julio Jones trade was a trade that while the Falcons gave up a lot to go from pick 27 (a 2nd and 4th in that year's draft plus a 1st and 4th in the following year's draft) it wasn't that bad a mortgage of their future for a piece they needed. 

 

TLDR: Going for a big trade up might work but it is going to depend on a lot of factors. 

[Shaw66]

On 2/3/2024 at 3:11 PM, Gunsgoodtime said:

I just can't get behind this any longer after watching the last 4 years playoffs

I see a lot of posters expressing a similar sentiment.  I don't understand it.  

 

There are pretty much teams winning Super Bowls by simply outscoring their opponents.   In December and January football, scoring drops because everyone knows the style of each team's offense, and everyone has access to film of defenses succeeding against the offenses.

 

When I think of the Bills' late season games, it's the defense, not the offense, that has let the team in the fourth quarter.  @warrior9 posted recently that in four of the Bills' six regular season losses, the last time the Josh Allen touched the ball, the Bills had the lead or were tied.   That means, of course, that the defense lost the game at the end (except the Jets game, which was a special teams TD.   What does that mean?   It means that generally, the offense is good enough to win games.  And, in fact, that's what KC had this season - an offense that is good enough to win games.   What KC had and the Bills didn't was a defense that shut down teams in the fourth quarter. 

 

Just look at the offensive and defensive regular season stats.  The Bills are top 10 in offense and defense, both yards and points.   That's good enough to win championships.   What don't the Bills do?   They don't finish games.   And when they don't finish games, which side of the ball is the problem?   The defense.  

 

What was the problem against KC this season?  The Bills didn't get to Mahomes, at all.  What's the solution?  Among other things, it's better pass rush.  Well, Beane signed his answer to the get-Mahomes problem two years ago:  Von Miller.   The Bills didn't have the Von Miller they hoped for in the playoffs this season.  (In the Super Bowl against the Bengals, he had 2 sacks, 3 qb hits, and one pass defended.  When the Bills beat the Chiefs in the 2022 regular season, Miller had two sacks.  Those numbers for the Bills would have changed the game.  In fact, the score of the 2022 game was 24-20 - same as this year's divisional round game, except Miller wasn't the same Miller and the Bills gave up one more TD.)  On top of that, there was a tremendous drop off in talent from the Bills' starting linebackers to the people they put on the field at linebacker against the Chiefs.  

 

Medical technology will, we hope, solve the linebacker problem, and there's a good chance we'll see prime Miller in 2024.   But the safeties are on their way out the door, corner back is looking a little iffy (whither White?, Elam's last chance (more or less), and not much behind Douglas and Benford).  And the Bills need an impact player on the line (Oliver isn't quite it, Miller isn't every down, Jones may be gone, Rousseau hasn't emerged, and the others are placeholders).  

 

Bills need help on offense, sure.  But it's the defense that needs something that looks like a minor overhaul.   And it's the defense that has let them down in January. 

 

 

[Beck Water]

On 2/3/2024 at 12:54 PM, DJB said:

In the 2012 draft Atlanta traded up to get Julio Jones. Here is the breakdown of the deal;

 

 #6: Cleveland → Atlanta. (D) Cleveland traded this pick to Atlanta for Atlanta's first (27th overall, which later became #26), second (59th) and fourth-rounder (124th) and also Atlanta's first- and fourth-round selections in 2012.

 

Bills are in win now mode. We need an elite WR to put us over the top. Enter one of Malik Nabers (who I prefer) or Odunze. 
 

Is the time right now to do this with Josh and our window ?

 

Or should I put down the pipe and stick to trashing Tua? 

 

I think you should put down the pipe.

 

The problem is that the Bills badly need to re-stock at Safety and DL as well as at WR.  And their premier pathway to do that with the cap situation, is through the draft.  Throwing all-in with our draft picks for a WR when we have needs across the board, is probably not gonna be good enough.

 

The other problem is you seldom know who that truly great WR in the draft is gonna be.  The 2018 first round was good for QB - and the best QBs were the 3rd and 5th QBs drafted.  The best WR in the 2023 1st round were the 3rd and 4th WR drafted.  But arguably the best WR in the draft was taken at the end of the 5th round (Puka Nacua) , and the 2nd best was the 3rd WR drafted in the 2nd round (I think, the 7th WR drafted overall).

 

 

[mjt328]

On 2/3/2024 at 1:40 PM, Mr. WEO said:

he's shown no aptitude for evaluating WR talent.

 

This is just a silly take.

• He traded for Stefon Diggs, who in 4 seasons has put together the 4 best receiving seasons in Bills history.  
• In free agency, he landed a premium slot receiver in Cole Beasley.  He also got very good value for John Brown, who put up 1,000 yards in his first season here.
• So far, he hasn't drafted a WR before the 4th Round.  Yet we got starting-level production from Gabe Davis and Khalil Shakir had a nice breakout season this year.

If you want to argue that Brandon Beane hasn't used enough resources on the WR room, I guess that's fair.  But we also need to remember that we have 53 roster spots and 22 starting roles, with only so many draft picks and limited cap space.  You can't address everything every single year.  Beane has admitted he wanted a WR in last year's draft, but he didn't want to trade up and they were all gone.  So he took the best receiving threat remaining, which was Dalton Kincaid.  Looking at the upcoming draft, he probably made the correct decision.  Kincaid is developing into an elite Tight End, and this year's draft is absolutely loaded with talent.  We will get at least one, if not multiple WR prospects.