Should the Bills trade up for their own “Julio Jones”

[Dick_Cheney]

17 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Buffalo selected Watkins at the #4 spot before Mack at #5, and Evans at #7. Barr was selected by Minn at #9.

 

The kid had one season of 1047 yards and 9 TDs, and that was with 96 targets, 60 receptions a 62.5 catch percentage. In three seasons in Buffalo and played in 37 of 48 games. 

 

Mike Evans has played for Tampa for 10 seasons and has yet to have less than 1000 yards in a season. 

This is indeed correct and true, but at the same time I have a hard time directly comparing the last 10 years of WR performance in the AFC East vs the NFC South.

 

The NFC South has got to be the easiest division for a WR to rack up stats, given the general level of competition, the weather, and the indoor playing environments.

[Logic]

I voted "yes".

I understand the argument of all who don't want to see it happen. I understand the "we have lots of needs" and "it could just be another Watkins situation" arguments.

I'm just here to say: I think fans sometimes overrate draft picks. They clutch them their chest like pearls and refuse to give them up. Sometimes I think giving up those picks is warranted. Case in point: I was fine with the Bills trading a 1st for CMC. I felt he was the rare RB that warranted a big trade and monetary investment because he impacts the passing game so much as well, and because he would take an ENORMOUS amount of pressure off of Josh Allen. The Bills didn't do it, and instead used their 1st round pick on Kaiir Elam. CMC, meanwhile, was a finalist for league MVP and helped his team reach the Super Bowl.

The point is that yes, there is risk in trading away draft picks or trading up in a draft. There is ALSO risk that the premiere player you DON'T make the big time trade for could post elite production, while the player you stand pat and draft instead winds up being a nothing burger. 

With where the Bills are in their build right now and with a full youth movement in effect, I'm okay with them making a big jump up the draft board and taking a swing on a game changing offensive playmaker. I have faith in Beane to fill in the roster gaps with bargain free agents, as he always does.

 

[SoCal Deek]

4 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Yes I covered that.  The evaluations of some of those guys was even worse.

 

 

I’ve always wondered if the problem is evaluation BEFORE they’re selected or training/coaching AFTER they’re on the team. I believe it’s as much or more of the latter, than the former. 

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

 

This is just a silly take.

• He traded for Stefon Diggs, who in 4 seasons has put together the 4 best receiving seasons in Bills history.  
• In free agency, he landed a premium slot receiver in Cole Beasley.  He also got very good value for John Brown, who put up 1,000 yards in his first season here.
• So far, he hasn't drafted a WR before the 4th Round.  Yet we got starting-level production from Gabe Davis and Khalil Shakir had a nice breakout season this year.

If you want to argue that Brandon Beane hasn't used enough resources on the WR room, I guess that's fair.  But we also need to remember that we have 53 roster spots and 22 starting roles, with only so many draft picks and limited cap space.  You can't address everything every single year.  Beane has admitted he wanted a WR in last year's draft, but he didn't want to trade up and they were all gone.  So he took the best receiving threat remaining, which was Dalton Kincaid.  Looking at the upcoming draft, he probably made the correct decision.  Kincaid is developing into an elite Tight End, and this year's draft is absolutely loaded with talent.  We will get at least one, if not multiple WR prospects.

 

 

 

Again, bringing a steady stream of short timer FAs and Diggs isn't evidence of ability to evaluate draft WR talent.  This conversation (and every other thread discussing the desperate situation of the WR roster would not exist if they had possibly considered spending real draft capital on WR picks.  Brown and Beasley were bandaids.  Bringing them back a second time was just embarrassing. 

3 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I’ve always wondered if the problem is evaluation BEFORE they’re selected or training/coaching AFTER they’re on the team. I believe it’s as much or more of the latter, than the former. 

 

then that's an ongoing problem...

[Doc]

10 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

Obviously it was not a good move.  Hoping your 4th round pick would become a leading WR2 isn't a great 7 year plan.  That's how not good at drafting WR they are.  Need more? Proehl, McCloud, Hodgins, Stevenson, Shakir, Shorter.  Out of 51 draft picks. 

 

Dorsey obviously has nothing to do with this.  

 

You've admitted here and elsewhere that you "like" Gabe Davis.  Considering he's been the #2 WR the past 2 seasons, what did you like about him?  Now you're saying it wasn't a great plan?  Pick a side and stick with it.

 

What about Shakir?  A pretty good #3 WR wouldn't you say? 

 

They, along with the rest of the players you listed were taken on Day 3, when the odds of hitting on a WR decrease substantially.  Which was the point.  There is no proof Beane "has shown no aptitude to evaluate WR talent" because he hasn't taken a WR high and in fact there is evidence to the contrary, above.

 

Again what you're arguing about is their draft strategy, i.e. eschewing taking WRs high.  And that will likely change this next draft and then we can properly assess his ability to evaluate WR talent.  Not based on Day 3 draft picks or lower-tier/cheaper FAs.

 

And yes Dorsey has something to do with it.  He was fired mid-season and Brady had to adopt his offense.  And in that vein, you don't need All-Pros or even Pro Bowlers at every receiving position on offense. 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

A smallish move up in Round 1 is fairly likely. I’d be willing to trade our 1st next year to double dip in this years first round and come out with a pair of dynamic WR’s that can carry the offense for 5 years

[DJB]

I think once the group that voted no sees Margin Harrison and Nabers play they will change their vote to yes 

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, DJB said:

I think once the group that voted no sees Margin Harrison and Nabers play they will change their vote to yes 

 

I have not done much research yet, but so far I am less enamored with Nabers than MHJ or Odunze. Sadly, MHJ is out of reach as we’d have to get to 3 (NE) or 4. I’d do a Julio Jones type of trade in a heartbeat for him though. Even if the first team not taking a QB was dumb enough to trade out realistically we don’t have the ammo to get there. I have no issue with making a big move for the right player, but I don’t expect more than a small trade up. As has become typical we will have to do that because the league will know what position we need to address in round 1. Ofc we might have a couple WRs rated closely and not need to do that. Im just hopeful we can get our guy and not have a McDuffy incident again. 

Edited February 7 by BarleyNY

[Kaenon]

We tried that once, remember?

2014 - Sammy Watkins at pick #4 for 2 1st round pics.

[Mr. WEO]

14 hours ago, Doc said:

 

You've admitted here and elsewhere that you "like" Gabe Davis.  Considering he's been the #2 WR the past 2 seasons, what did you like about him?  Now you're saying it wasn't a great plan?  Pick a side and stick with it.

 

What about Shakir?  A pretty good #3 WR wouldn't you say? 

 

They, along with the rest of the players you listed were taken on Day 3, when the odds of hitting on a WR decrease substantially.  Which was the point.  There is no proof Beane "has shown no aptitude to evaluate WR talent" because he hasn't taken a WR high and in fact there is evidence to the contrary, above.

 

Again what you're arguing about is their draft strategy, i.e. eschewing taking WRs high.  And that will likely change this next draft and then we can properly assess his ability to evaluate WR talent.  Not based on Day 3 draft picks or lower-tier/cheaper FAs.

 

And yes Dorsey has something to do with it.  He was fired mid-season and Brady had to adopt his offense.  And in that vein, you don't need All-Pros or even Pro Bowlers at every receiving position on offense. 

 

 

yes I like Davis.  that's one in 7 years--they will probably get rid of him,  what's your point?  Shakir?  maybe a 3/4--again he was drafted in McD's 6th year.  you keep pointing to these two guys, when WR has been an issue since before and now after Diggs trade.  despite this, their "draft strategy" was to keep drafting Defense.

 

This strategy is evidence that they didn't see the value in a highly drafted WR/couldn't assess the value. Having Davis #2 (or Diggs as #1 for that matter) does not preclude them from loading up with more top WR talent.  That's just intuitively true.

 

And "the Brady Offense"?  Throw a million short dump offs to Kincaid and watch Diggs disappear? Not target Davis at all?  What doe that have to with drafting WRs?

 

Imagine if McD was able to find better value in, say AJ Brown than a Tackle (Cody Ford).   Look at all the scrub WRs they've brought in as FAs instead of just drafting higher.  Were they more evidence of Beane's solid ability to evaluate WRs? 

 

If the Brady Offense doesn't need All Pros and Pro Bowlers then why draft a WR in the 1st this year?  Ditto if they still have Diggs and Davis?  Oh wait, you think Davis was a bad pick as WR2.  So for you, in 6 drafts, Shakir is the evidence that Beane is skilled at evaluating WR draft talent. 

 

In summary, your position is that Beane is very good at evaluating day 1 WR talent, but he has consistently chosen to ignore it, asserting the team didn't need it.

[DJB]

42 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

I have not done much research yet, but so far I am less enamored with Nabers than MHJ or Odunze. Sadly, MHJ is out of reach as we’d have to get to 3 (NE) or 4. I’d do a Julio Jones type of trade in a heartbeat for him though. Even if the first team not taking a QB was dumb enough to trade out realistically we don’t have the ammo to get there. I have no issue with making a big move for the right player, but I don’t expect more than a small trade up. As has become typical we will have to do that because the league will know what position we need to address in round 1. Hopefully we can get our guy and not have a McDuffy incident again. 

 
Go watch more film of Nabers. He is elite after the catch. Has incredible hands and body control. His route running is superb. 
 

I have him rated as the #1 WR in the class 

[42Knuck]

On 2/3/2024 at 2:19 PM, buffaloboyinATL said:

I voted No Way! I am still shell shocked from the trade up for Sammy Watkins.  Pass…

I trust Bean way more than I trust the last guy.  Not saying we should trade up, but if Bean did, I believe it would be a Home Run.

 

[Brand J]

27 minutes ago, 42Knuck said:

I trust Bean way more than I trust the last guy.  Not saying we should trade up, but if Bean did, I believe it would be a Home Run.

 

Like Elam? Cody Ford? Dawson Knox? Tremaine Edmunds?
 

Just messing with you. No GM gets home run picks on every trade up. I’d rather he trade down and accumulate capital in the early rounds. 

[boyst]

On 2/6/2024 at 12:23 PM, Dick_Cheney said:

This is indeed correct and true, but at the same time I have a hard time directly comparing the last 10 years of WR performance in the AFC East vs the NFC South.

 

The NFC South has got to be the easiest division for a WR to rack up stats, given the general level of competition, the weather, and the indoor playing environments.

you're forgetting that through much of the mid 10's New Orleans had a quality pass defense, carolina had one of the best defenses of the decade.

 

during that time in the afc east the we had the patriots - who by the mid 10's was more offense and overall talent than it was defense.

[starrymessenger]

4 hours ago, DJB said:

 
Go watch more film of Nabers. He is elite after the catch. Has incredible hands and body control. His route running is superb. 
 

I have him rated as the #1 WR in the class 

You are right imo about Nabers. I really don't think there is much to differentiate him from MHJ. Not saying they are the same player. They are not. I mean in terms of what they can bring to a team by way of value added. Nabers too is absolutely phenomenal. You can nit pick all you like but there are no holes in his game. He's as impressive a route runner as MHJ and he's better after the catch. Both these guys are lights out.

Edited February 7 by starrymessenger

[henry jones]

We tried this once with Watkins.  Didn’t turn out so well

[Warriorspikes51]

There are so many quality WR’s in this class, I’d rather take 2 swings as high as possible

[Doc]

8 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

yes I like Davis.  that's one in 7 years--they will probably get rid of him,  what's your point?  Shakir?  maybe a 3/4--again he was drafted in McD's 6th year.  you keep pointing to these two guys, when WR has been an issue since before and now after Diggs trade.  despite this, their "draft strategy" was to keep drafting Defense.

 

This strategy is evidence that they didn't see the value in a highly drafted WR/couldn't assess the value. Having Davis #2 (or Diggs as #1 for that matter) does not preclude them from loading up with more top WR talent.  That's just intuitively true.

 

And "the Brady Offense"?  Throw a million short dump offs to Kincaid and watch Diggs disappear? Not target Davis at all?  What doe that have to with drafting WRs?

 

Imagine if McD was able to find better value in, say AJ Brown than a Tackle (Cody Ford).   Look at all the scrub WRs they've brought in as FAs instead of just drafting higher.  Were they more evidence of Beane's solid ability to evaluate WRs? 

 

If the Brady Offense doesn't need All Pros and Pro Bowlers then why draft a WR in the 1st this year?  Ditto if they still have Diggs and Davis?  Oh wait, you think Davis was a bad pick as WR2.  So for you, in 6 drafts, Shakir is the evidence that Beane is skilled at evaluating WR draft talent. 

 

In summary, your position is that Beane is very good at evaluating day 1 WR talent, but he has consistently chosen to ignore it, asserting the team didn't need it.

 

No.  Why would I say that when he hasn't done it yet?  That would be like saying he has no aptitude..." which has been my point all along. 

 

And again, he traded for Diggs, drafted Davis and Shakir and signed Beasley and Brown.  To expect him to hit on every pick, especially Day 3 ones, and every FA signing is fanciful at best. 

 

Also remember that when Beane joined, the Bills had Sammy Watkins and had just drafted Zay Jones in the 2nd round.  Then they traded Watkins and in 2019 traded Jones when it was apparent neither were process guys. 

Edited February 7 by Doc

[BarleyNY]

6 hours ago, DJB said:

 
Go watch more film of Nabers. He is elite after the catch. Has incredible hands and body control. His route running is superb. 
 

I have him rated as the #1 WR in the class 

 

Thanks. I’ll do that. How’s his separation?

[DJB]

27 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Thanks. I’ll do that. How’s his separation?

One of the best in the class in my opinion. His stop start ability is top notch.