Warriorspikes51 Posted February 3 Posted February 3 Get multiple dynamic WR’s in the draft that can consistently win with deep speed. Allen develops chemistry with them we become terrifying 1 Quote
Thurman#1 Posted February 3 Posted February 3 7 hours ago, Shaw66 said: This is one of those deep dives into stats that I think is pretty meaningless. What are we, or the Bills, supposed to do with this data? Redesign the offense to make sure they complete some deep passes over the middle? To what end? Think about it: First, remember that all teams have gone to defenses to stop deep throws, and against the Bills they double down on those efforts, because Allen can so deadly. When teams have two deep safeties, throwing down the middle is the last place you want to go, because both safeties have a chance to make a play. The sidelines deep offer better opportunities. I would guess that deep middle throws are prone to higher interception rates. Second, if the Bills were reasonably successful on the 15 deep balls they threw in the middle, that's like 40%. So that's six more completions on the season, and if each was for 30 yards, that's 180 yards, or on average 10 yards per game. Now, I'm just as interested as the next guy in getting 10 yards more per game, but how much time should Bills invest in deep middle throws to get those ten yards? Third, has anyone looked at the stats? I haven't, but I'm sure some other team had an abysmal record on deep left throws, and some other team did on deep right throws. These throws are a sliver of the offensive attempts in a game - one or two plays out of fifty, and that smaller of a sample size is always going to generate interesting - but not meaningful - outliers. I would expect that the Bills have seen this data, and I expect that they are studying it, like everything else, to see whether anything meaningful is behind. But as I said, if there were something meaningful and if it were corrected, at best it's going to have incidental impact on production. Yes, of course, the team should improve in every area, but this hardly should be a focal point. Fans wanted to get rid of Tyrod Taylor when he had bad numbers throwing into the middle middle. Should we now move on from Josh Allen because he has bad numbers in the deep middle? Slicing and dicing data into smaller and smaller pieces rarely leads to any useful knowledge. While I largely agree with everything here, when teams run two safeties deep, the middle is absolutely one of the places teams go to hit a weak spot. They try to exploit the seam between the two, as well as the sidelines. Having said that, you're dead right that teams have put huge amounts of effort into stopping Josh from throwing deep. As for your question about looking at the stats for deep right and deep left and so on, it's easy to look at that kind of stat with NextGenStats and you're right, some teams are weaker in some areas than others, as you'd expect. So many things might affect that, from QB habitual preference to having a stronger receiver on one side, but I'm sure that's exactly what you're pointing at here. Here's Josh's "QB Grid," as they call it. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/single/qb-grid/team/2023/week/josh-allen/ALL529264 And Mahomes' https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/single/qb-grid/team/2023/week/patrick-mahomes/MAH401939 Mahomes' QB rating was worse, though this is again probably only between the hashes. Here's the page with all of the QB grids for quick comparison. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/list/qb-grid Oh, and Tyrod had bad numbers in the deep middle. But also the intermediate middle, which gets a lot more throws. That really did allow teams to allocate less resources to that large area and make things tougher elsewhere. Plus, Tyrod had this problem consistently throughout his career. Josh was much better to the deep middle in other years. He was excellent there in 2022, for example, according to the same QB grids. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/josh-allen/ALL529264/2022 Josh had a hard time with long balls this year. He overthrew a lot of them, where in some other years he was terrific. 1 1 Quote
ChronicAndKnuckles Posted February 3 Posted February 3 13 hours ago, BarleyNY said: that’s rough. you’d think that Kincaid would eat well on seam routes Give him time. Kincaid is going to have a monster season next year. 1 Quote
nedboy7 Posted February 3 Posted February 3 13 hours ago, artmalibu said: JA was 4th in the league in passing yards and 5th in passing TDs, so I dont care where he did or didnt complete passes.🤣 You are not maximizing your whining potential. Read some more threads. You will figure out how to do it. 1 1 Quote
Don Otreply Posted February 3 Posted February 3 Well, for starters, we have only one functioning boundary receiver, which allows defenses that double up the most likely mid to deep receiver, or who ever they want to bracket, combined that with the drops and an offensive scheme that is so obviously in transition you get what we have, very likely all this will change for the better this upcoming season, in which Brady will have set in place his offensive game plan/scheme, and we will have a couple new receivers in the stables which will compliment our current functioning pass catchers, me, I’m optimistic going forward. 2 2 Quote
Shaw66 Posted February 3 Posted February 3 9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: While I largely agree with everything here, when teams run two safeties deep, the middle is absolutely one of the places teams go to hit a weak spot. They try to exploit the seam between the two, as well as the sidelines. Having said that, you're dead right that teams have put huge amounts of effort into stopping Josh from throwing deep. As for your question about looking at the stats for deep right and deep left and so on, it's easy to look at that kind of stat with NextGenStats and you're right, some teams are weaker in some areas than others, as you'd expect. So many things might affect that, from QB habitual preference to having a stronger receiver on one side, but I'm sure that's exactly what you're pointing at here. Here's Josh's "QB Grid," as they call it. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/single/qb-grid/team/2023/week/josh-allen/ALL529264 And Mahomes' https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/single/qb-grid/team/2023/week/patrick-mahomes/MAH401939 Mahomes' QB rating was worse, though this is again probably only between the hashes. Here's the page with all of the QB grids for quick comparison. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/list/qb-grid Oh, and Tyrod had bad numbers in the deep middle. But also the intermediate middle, which gets a lot more throws. That really did allow teams to allocate less resources to that large area and make things tougher elsewhere. Plus, Tyrod had this problem consistently throughout his career. Josh was much better to the deep middle in other years. He was excellent there in 2022, for example, according to the same QB grids. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/josh-allen/ALL529264/2022 Josh had a hard time with long balls this year. He overthrew a lot of them, where in some other years he was terrific. Hey, Thurm, thanks for this. I knew this stuff was out there, but I don't do much stat diving and never have played around on NextGenStats. That's excellent. And I agree about all of what you say. I remember when the Tyrod discussion was going on, I thought Tyrod's numbers weren't good but weren't exactly a crisis. What Tyrod's numbers suggested (if I recall it correctly) was that if he were going to be average in the middle of the field, he'd have one more completion per game. That's 20 yards per completion and it's material, but still not a crisis. It doesn't matter all that much where he gets 20 yards per game, but it would be important to the team's performance if somehow the team got 20 yards more per game. And, of course, teams weren't fearful that Tyrod was going to hurt them deep over the middle, nothing like what they think about Josh, so Tyrod should have been able to get more completions in that area. The unfortunate reality for Tyrod is that he never grew much as QB beyond what he was when he started for the Bills. Some guys progress, some don't. I really think this is the kind of data that is important to coaches, not because of the yardage not gained by going 0-15 (as I noted, at a 40% completion rate, that's only 120 yards or so on the season), but because the coaches then can pull up those plays and study and understand something that the defense is doing. That is, the data allows them to ask why this happened and give them further perspective on their offense. For example, when they understand why Josh went 0-15, they actually may not be interested in how to get his completion percentage up in the deep middle; they may ask themselves, "if the defenses are doing this to us when we try to go there, what have they left open that we can attack?" Thus, the coaches may actually use the 0-15 to adjust route trees and to improve the numbers in OTHER areas of the field. As they begin hurting defenses because the defenses are overloaded in the middle, the defenses will adjust and THEN Josh's numbers over the middle may start to improve. The point is, as someone pointed out, these 15 throws are 1% of the total offense. Improving the results on these 15 throws is less important than improving the offense's results generally. These numbers may provide an insight into how to do that, regardless of whether Josh's performance on these 15 throws improves. 1 Quote
Jimmy Harris 69 Posted February 3 Posted February 3 This is an instructive stat, it indicates a need for deep speed to me. Though as the KC playoff game showed, unless there is a catch at the end, deep incompletions can leave you wanting completion of a nice 7 yard crossing route on 2nd down. Quote
Mat68 Posted February 3 Posted February 3 A lot of nothing heading into next season. Year over year deep passing is like projecting turnover margin. I would like to see Buffalo load up on offense. Get great on offense. Vs the be good at both. Mcdermott will have to Mcgiver his defense with lower FA and late day 2 and day 3 picks. Quote
Shaw66 Posted February 3 Posted February 3 9 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said: Give him time. Kincaid is going to have a monster season next year. Whenever I think wonder what Brady is going to do with the passing game, I always seem to come back to Kincaid. I mean, the Bills need quality play from their wideouts, and I think they will get it. I think Diggs will return to form. I think the Bills will get a better receiver (not a better blocker) than Davis to be the #2. It's said over and over here, but the Bills really could use a Robert Woods-type #2 - decent size, speed, route running, hands, blocker - an all-round good football player. I think Shakir will continue to produce, but his size limits him a bit. I think Kincaid is key. His physical tools are great, but what I really like is his intelligence. He seemed to do a really good job running routes the way they needed to be run. He had a good sense of how to get open. Still, he had to spend a lot of his rookie season just figuring out the pro game, the offense, and life in the league. It's the same issue that all rookies have, like Cook, for example. I think we're going to find that with his off-season workouts and then with his training camp work with Josh, Kincaid's going to jump into the status of being a true threat. (And, as an aside, I think we can look for O'Cyrus to improve, too, which is a very nice thought.) It should be obvious to Brady that he has a special talent in Kincaid, and I'm sure Brady's already working on how to make him a 1000-yard receiver. I watched the video someone posted about why Kelce is so good, about 15 minutes. It was very easy to see Kincaid doing what Kelce does. KIncaid seems to have the same feel for the game. Several months ago some people here educated me about why "smooth" is a real thing that matters. Kincaid is no doubt smooth, and I think one of things that makes Kelce so good is that he's smooth, too. He's bigger all around than Kincaid, so Kelce doesn't have the quickness, but they are similar in that they both seem to do things effortlessly. Kelce can run almost any kind of route; he cuts and changes directions really well, and whatever his body's been doing, when the ball arrives he's ready for it. It's interesting me that the Chiefs even throw him the ball on those wide quick screens, because he can make the catch and make the quick cuts. I see all the same things in Kincaid. I'm not worried about the receiving corps. Why? (1) I think Diggs was injured in the second half of the season, and will be back to the normal Diggs in August. (2) Kincaid will become a true feature receiver. (3) Shakir will continue to be a problem. (4) The Bills will find a solid utility #2, maybe a decent free agent, maybe a 1st or second round pick who contributes as a rookie. Whether that crew catches more deep balls (more than zero) over the middle, I don't know. What is expect is that the passing game will be better. Because of Kincaid, a major overhaul in the receiving room will not be necessary. 1 Quote
LABILLBACKER Posted February 3 Posted February 3 22 hours ago, Old Coot said: We did not connect on may of the deep shots we took this year. Josh seemed to overthrow his receivers plus occasional drops. It's execution, man. These guys are elete pro athletes. They should be better than this. Josh needs to practice dropping deep balls into trash cans with a guy waving his hands in Josh's face. Unfortunately Josh's deep throws still lack trajectory. They're still too flat. That canon of an arm has no height allowing open wrs to run under. Quote
zow2 Posted February 3 Posted February 3 46 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said: Unfortunately Josh's deep throws still lack trajectory. They're still too flat. That canon of an arm has no height allowing open wrs to run under. I felt like he improved that a couple years ago, and then this past season he regressed back to those flatter deep passes. those throws have to be absolutely perfect to connect. Our WRs need a chance to run under it. All that being said, he threw 2 great downfield balls late to Sherfield and Diggs. We could have beaten KC and our WRs blew it in the biggest moment. ugh. Quote
Dr. Who Posted February 3 Posted February 3 (edited) 1 hour ago, Shaw66 said: Whenever I think wonder what Brady is going to do with the passing game, I always seem to come back to Kincaid. I mean, the Bills need quality play from their wideouts, and I think they will get it. I think Diggs will return to form. I think the Bills will get a better receiver (not a better blocker) than Davis to be the #2. It's said over and over here, but the Bills really could use a Robert Woods-type #2 - decent size, speed, route running, hands, blocker - an all-round good football player. I think Shakir will continue to produce, but his size limits him a bit. I think Kincaid is key. His physical tools are great, but what I really like is his intelligence. He seemed to do a really good job running routes the way they needed to be run. He had a good sense of how to get open. Still, he had to spend a lot of his rookie season just figuring out the pro game, the offense, and life in the league. It's the same issue that all rookies have, like Cook, for example. I think we're going to find that with his off-season workouts and then with his training camp work with Josh, Kincaid's going to jump into the status of being a true threat. (And, as an aside, I think we can look for O'Cyrus to improve, too, which is a very nice thought.) It should be obvious to Brady that he has a special talent in Kincaid, and I'm sure Brady's already working on how to make him a 1000-yard receiver. I watched the video someone posted about why Kelce is so good, about 15 minutes. It was very easy to see Kincaid doing what Kelce does. KIncaid seems to have the same feel for the game. Several months ago some people here educated me about why "smooth" is a real thing that matters. Kincaid is no doubt smooth, and I think one of things that makes Kelce so good is that he's smooth, too. He's bigger all around than Kincaid, so Kelce doesn't have the quickness, but they are similar in that they both seem to do things effortlessly. Kelce can run almost any kind of route; he cuts and changes directions really well, and whatever his body's been doing, when the ball arrives he's ready for it. It's interesting me that the Chiefs even throw him the ball on those wide quick screens, because he can make the catch and make the quick cuts. I see all the same things in Kincaid. I'm not worried about the receiving corps. Why? (1) I think Diggs was injured in the second half of the season, and will be back to the normal Diggs in August. (2) Kincaid will become a true feature receiver. (3) Shakir will continue to be a problem. (4) The Bills will find a solid utility #2, maybe a decent free agent, maybe a 1st or second round pick who contributes as a rookie. Whether that crew catches more deep balls (more than zero) over the middle, I don't know. What is expect is that the passing game will be better. Because of Kincaid, a major overhaul in the receiving room will not be necessary. I am in partial agreement. I do think there's a decent chance Diggs was injured and will play better next year. Kincaid should be a major focal point of the offense going forward. Two things I would add. Part of this you can't replicate, because Andy Reid is an offensive genius. Even in a down year, folks were afraid of Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. And in the playoffs, they proved that concern legitimate. Given adequate OC coaching, there's no good reason that Josh Allen should not have an offense that can also inspire habitual fear in the opponent. Allen's been held back by a lot of things, sometimes of his own making, but very much largely due to Beane's attempt to build a balanced roster. It's great to have depth, but in the post-season, you better have multiple playmakers. Yes, you need them on both sides of the ball, but when Josh Allen is your qb, there should be multiple receiving threats that scare the opponent. I don't have certitude Diggs will become the player he was several years ago. Regardless, I think they require more than a solid #2. They need someone who has a plausible #1 WR ceiling. Diggs may return to form, but he's still at that age where you should be preparing for a young guy to ascend as Diggs slows down. And this is a very good draft class for WR. They should take one early and at least one more relatively early. Blocking ability is important, but speed and exceptional hands are my top qualities that need to be there. Edited February 3 by Dr. Who 2 Quote
Nephilim17 Posted February 3 Posted February 3 Could this be related to our overall lack of YAC? Quote
ChronicAndKnuckles Posted February 3 Posted February 3 2 hours ago, Shaw66 said: Whenever I think wonder what Brady is going to do with the passing game, I always seem to come back to Kincaid. I mean, the Bills need quality play from their wideouts, and I think they will get it. I think Diggs will return to form. I think the Bills will get a better receiver (not a better blocker) than Davis to be the #2. It's said over and over here, but the Bills really could use a Robert Woods-type #2 - decent size, speed, route running, hands, blocker - an all-round good football player. I think Shakir will continue to produce, but his size limits him a bit. I think Kincaid is key. His physical tools are great, but what I really like is his intelligence. He seemed to do a really good job running routes the way they needed to be run. He had a good sense of how to get open. Still, he had to spend a lot of his rookie season just figuring out the pro game, the offense, and life in the league. It's the same issue that all rookies have, like Cook, for example. I think we're going to find that with his off-season workouts and then with his training camp work with Josh, Kincaid's going to jump into the status of being a true threat. (And, as an aside, I think we can look for O'Cyrus to improve, too, which is a very nice thought.) It should be obvious to Brady that he has a special talent in Kincaid, and I'm sure Brady's already working on how to make him a 1000-yard receiver. I watched the video someone posted about why Kelce is so good, about 15 minutes. It was very easy to see Kincaid doing what Kelce does. KIncaid seems to have the same feel for the game. Several months ago some people here educated me about why "smooth" is a real thing that matters. Kincaid is no doubt smooth, and I think one of things that makes Kelce so good is that he's smooth, too. He's bigger all around than Kincaid, so Kelce doesn't have the quickness, but they are similar in that they both seem to do things effortlessly. Kelce can run almost any kind of route; he cuts and changes directions really well, and whatever his body's been doing, when the ball arrives he's ready for it. It's interesting me that the Chiefs even throw him the ball on those wide quick screens, because he can make the catch and make the quick cuts. I see all the same things in Kincaid. I'm not worried about the receiving corps. Why? (1) I think Diggs was injured in the second half of the season, and will be back to the normal Diggs in August. (2) Kincaid will become a true feature receiver. (3) Shakir will continue to be a problem. (4) The Bills will find a solid utility #2, maybe a decent free agent, maybe a 1st or second round pick who contributes as a rookie. Whether that crew catches more deep balls (more than zero) over the middle, I don't know. What is expect is that the passing game will be better. Because of Kincaid, a major overhaul in the receiving room will not be necessary. Things are definitely looking up w/ all these players going into their 2nd year starting (Bernard, Kincaid, Torrence.) The first thing that jumped out to me on Kincaid’s college tape was his smoothness as well (and hands.) He seems to almost glide. He only ran a 4.71 40 time, but has that cliche football speed along w/ the intelligence needed to find the soft spots in the zone. The only thing I worry about is his lack of threat in the end zone. Brady transformed the run game and turned Cook into a top 5 RB. I hope he does the same w/ the TE’s. Maybe take some pages out of New Englands old playbook on how to utilize 2 TE sets. Let’s just hope Knox doesn’t go on a killing spree. 1 Quote
Shaw66 Posted February 3 Posted February 3 1 hour ago, Dr. Who said: I am in partial agreement. I do think there's a decent chance Diggs was injured and will play better next year. Kincaid should be a major focal point of the offense going forward. Two things I would add. Part of this you can't replicate, because Andy Reid is an offensive genius. Even in a down year, folks were afraid of Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. And in the playoffs, they proved that concern legitimate. Given adequate OC coaching, there's no good reason that Josh Allen should not have an offense that can also inspire habitual fear in the opponent. Allen's been held back by a lot of things, sometimes of his own making, but very much largely due to Beane's attempt to build a balanced roster. It's great to have depth, but in the post-season, you better have multiple playmakers. Yes, you need them on both sides of the ball, but when Josh Allen is your qb, there should be multiple receiving threats that scare the opponent. I don't have certitude Diggs will become the player he was several years ago. Regardless, I think they require more than a solid #2. They need someone who has a plausible #1 WR ceiling. Diggs may return to form, but he's still at that age where you should be preparing for a young guy to ascend as Diggs slows down. And this is a very good draft class for WR. They should take one early and at least one more relatively early. Blocking ability is important, but speed and exceptional hands are my top qualities that need to be there. Well, I agree a #1 ceiling would be nice, but if Diggs returns to form, not necessary. I've become convinced that the stud #1 isn't necessary and is, in fact, a distraction. Both the Niners and the Chiefs do it without a stud #1. Lions, Eagles, do it with very good receivers but without Chase, Jefferson, Lamb, or one of a handful of others. Two studs, the Miami and Cinci model, isn't sustainable for cap reasons. Hill is a unique combination of a good route runner and world-class speed; give him just Diggs speed, and Hill would still be a very good receiver. What seems to be working now against the defenses that smother the deep ball is having multiple talented route runners on the field. Good one on one guys, for sure, but not necessarily stud burners. They have to know how to run the routes and read the options correctly. If you have a QB who can read the options, then you're good. That's what the Chiefs and the Niners do. I can't even name the Chiefs wideouts, but every one of them will hurt you at some point in the game. And that's why Shakir has been successful. A tad small, so far as I'm concerned, but a good, smart route runner who makes himself available to catch the ball often enough that he's a factor. Quote
starrymessenger Posted February 3 Posted February 3 On 2/2/2024 at 11:34 AM, sven233 said: He would have, but they didn't really even start to incorporate him in the offense on those types of routes until the last couple weeks of the season. He may have run a few of those routes earlier in the year here and there, but they didn't really start utilizing him in those situations until late. It was really strange because it was one of his biggest talents coming out of college in the first place. I thought we'd see it more from the beginning of the season, but they never did it. They seemed to take a step back against KC. Kincaid had 5 receptions on 5 targets but only for around 50 yards. Quote
Dr. Who Posted February 3 Posted February 3 1 hour ago, Shaw66 said: Well, I agree a #1 ceiling would be nice, but if Diggs returns to form, not necessary. I've become convinced that the stud #1 isn't necessary and is, in fact, a distraction. Both the Niners and the Chiefs do it without a stud #1. Lions, Eagles, do it with very good receivers but without Chase, Jefferson, Lamb, or one of a handful of others. Two studs, the Miami and Cinci model, isn't sustainable for cap reasons. Hill is a unique combination of a good route runner and world-class speed; give him just Diggs speed, and Hill would still be a very good receiver. What seems to be working now against the defenses that smother the deep ball is having multiple talented route runners on the field. Good one on one guys, for sure, but not necessarily stud burners. They have to know how to run the routes and read the options correctly. If you have a QB who can read the options, then you're good. That's what the Chiefs and the Niners do. I can't even name the Chiefs wideouts, but every one of them will hurt you at some point in the game. And that's why Shakir has been successful. A tad small, so far as I'm concerned, but a good, smart route runner who makes himself available to catch the ball often enough that he's a factor. That's an interesting alternative strategy. I am open to the idea, but I would still want to add two young receivers with plus talent. I like Shakir. He's a nice piece. Obviously, you need a bigger guy for the X. It shouldn't be impossible to find someone with more consistent hands than Davis and a larger route tree. I won't talk about the top 3 WR in the draft, because I think the price to move up would be exorbitant, and I don't expect Beane to invest that much draft capital in one player. There should still be a viable receiver at #28 that can upgrade the outside receiver. And there are a lot who will probably go day 2 that are difference makers. It's a deep draft, so OBD should have plenty of opportunities to add weapons for Josh. 1 Quote
Capco Posted February 3 Posted February 3 15 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: On Wild Card weekend they went 1/2 on those. I also wonder about what is meant, precisely, by "middle." My guess is that some people mean between the numbers and others between the hashes. Maybe others attempt to divide the field into equal thirds. The guy in the article is probably referring to between the hashes. It's easier to quickly check that way. In week 3, Allen hit one that went 26 air yards and was in the middle of the field. (NextGenStats). https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/single/pass/team/2023/3/josh-allen/ALL529264 In Week 5, he hit one that was 45 air yards in the middle third was completed. Week 10 21 yards in the middle third completed but not within the hashes. I also think this isn't really a fair comparison without looking deeper. If one guy threw 20 passes to the deep middle, 80% of which were between 20 and 25 yards long, and another guy threw 20 passes to the deep middle, 80% of which were over 40 yards, the fact that the first guy was more accurate than the second doesn't mean he's a better thrower to the deep middle. It just means he threw passes that were easier to complete than the 2nd guy did. It's an interesting stat. Worth a further look, probably, but I don't have more time to do that. How wide is a football field anyway? And the hash marks? I'm honestly surprised I don't know that off the top of my head. Quote
Old Coot Posted February 3 Posted February 3 4 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said: Unfortunately Josh's deep throws still lack trajectory. They're still too flat. That canon of an arm has no height allowing open wrs to run under. I agree. When he started out his deep throws were also flat. Then he seemed to have worked to get some height on his throws. Perhaps he has regressed. Time to work with the QB whisperer Quote
3rdand12 Posted February 3 Posted February 3 On 2/2/2024 at 2:34 PM, sven233 said: He would have, but they didn't really even start to incorporate him in the offense on those types of routes until the last couple weeks of the season. He may have run a few of those routes earlier in the year here and there, but they didn't really start utilizing him in those situations until late. It was really strange because it was one of his biggest talents coming out of college in the first place. I thought we'd see it more from the beginning of the season, but they never did it. DORSEY ! Quote
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