Mock draft simulators.

[mrags]

14 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

Would ya?

 

 

Board showing this:

 

 

(With Legette, McConkey, and Franklin still available)

 

I'd have to at least seriously consider the move. The long-term org value is solid (despite the "draft" value being bad IF you automatically downgrade future picks at least a round), plus they could obviously try to leverage picks to get back in it. Gotta consider Seattle's 2024 outlook, too. Hidden value there. 

I’ve had that offered a bunch of times. I agree, Seattles outlook for 2024 isn’t too good so these are prime picks. Likely in the mid teens range each round or maybe better. I’d have to say, do the trade but prepare to trade up to get back into the 2nd round 3 times somehow. Might end up with 3 potential studs at positions like WR, DT, OC, S. 
 

I’ve tried the trade myself in the mocks. Unfortunately like I said earlier, I am great at trading back and picking up extra picks but I am not so good at trading back up. At least not without giving up more than I like. 

[mrags]

Just managed to get this mock done. Multiple times I kept trying to trade back up for the players I wanted but kept being denied. Turns out they fell to me anyway. Only had to give up a 3rd round pick next year for extra picks. 
 

41.

Troy Franklin

WR Oregon

 

49.

T'Vondre Sweat

DT Texas

 

60.

Jackson Powers-Johnson

OC Oregon

 

89.

James Williams

S Miami (FL)

 

128.

Brenden Rice

WR USC

 

161.

Tahj Washington

WR USC

 

197.

Kitan Oladapo

S Oregon State

 

201.

Marshawn Kneeland

EDGE Western Michigan

 

205.

Anim Dankwah

OT Howard

 

252.

Brennan Jackson

EDGE Washington State

 

253.

Rayshad Williams

CB Texas Tech

 

I feel like I walked away with 2 starting WRs within a year or so with another WR being a gadget players in the McKenzie/Harty role as well as a backup to Shakir if he ever goes down. Got our new starting C for the next 10+ years. Starting DT for the foreseeable future. Replacements for both Hyde and Poyer. And some Tackle, corner, and DL depth. 

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, mrags said:

Just managed to get this mock done. Multiple times I kept trying to trade back up for the players I wanted but kept being denied. Turns out they fell to me anyway. Only had to give up a 3rd round pick next year for extra picks. 
 

41.

Troy Franklin

WR Oregon

 

49.

T'Vondre Sweat

DT Texas

 

60.

Jackson Powers-Johnson

OC Oregon

 

89.

James Williams

S Miami (FL)

 

128.

Brenden Rice

WR USC

 

161.

Tahj Washington

WR USC

 

197.

Kitan Oladapo

S Oregon State

 

201.

Marshawn Kneeland

EDGE Western Michigan

 

205.

Anim Dankwah

OT Howard

 

252.

Brennan Jackson

EDGE Washington State

 

253.

Rayshad Williams

CB Texas Tech

 

I feel like I walked away with 2 starting WRs within a year or so with another WR being a gadget players in the McKenzie/Harty role as well as a backup to Shakir if he ever goes down. Got our new starting C for the next 10+ years. Starting DT for the foreseeable future. Replacements for both Hyde and Poyer. And some Tackle, corner, and DL depth. 

 

This would be great. But I find PFN's board placement of Troy Franklin unrealistic. 

 

I don't see any way he's the 10th Ranked WR and available in the mid to bottom of Round 2. A lot of mocks and other simulators have him not even on the board at 28.

Edited February 9 by BillsFanForever19

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

This would be great. But I find PFN's board placement of Troy Franklin unrealistic. 

 

I don't see any way he's the 10th Ranked WR and available in the mid to bottom of Round 2. A lot of mocks and other simulators have him not even on the board at 28.

 

The bigger whiff there is post Senior Bowl there is zero point zero chance that JPJ makes it to 60. He is going round 1 IMO. I think he is a bigger first round lock than Franklin tbh.

[BillsFanForever19]

42 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The bigger whiff there is post Senior Bowl there is zero point zero chance that JPJ makes it to 60. He is going round 1 IMO. I think he is a bigger first round lock than Franklin tbh.

 

Yeah, PFN's Mock Simulator Boards are way off right now. They'll update it as things get closer to the Draft, but right now it's completely unrealistic to use them.

 

9 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

If we draft  DL with our 3rd pick, I'm going to officially hunt down McD.

 

You'll hunt him down for taking a DL in Round 3? You are aware that we only have 1 DT total on our roster right now, right?

 

I got news for you - Round 3 is about the latest we'll be addressing that position with the amount of holes we have there.

Edited February 9 by BillsFanForever19

[BillsFanForever19]

3 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Would ya?

 

 

Board showing this:

 

 

(With Legette, McConkey, and Franklin still available)

 

I'd have to at least seriously consider the move. The long-term org value is solid (despite the "draft" value being bad IF you automatically downgrade future picks at least a round), plus they could obviously try to leverage picks to get back in it. Gotta consider Seattle's 2024 outlook, too. Hidden value there. 

 

It really depends on how the board falls. 

 

76 & 78 are good for 49 on the trade Value Chart. So you could have 60, 76, 78, and 128 or ~49, 60, and 128, in conjunction with an extra 1st next year.

 

The problem is we have so many holes to fill at multiple positions. So we're going to need to come out with probably at least 2 starters this Draft. Waiting until the 49-60 range to make our first pick would make that tough to do. And with the amount of starting holes we have, odds are there's going to be a player of value at 28 at one of the many positions we need.

 

However, if the board falls in a way where there isn't a player at 28 at WR, DE, DT, or S that's all that different of a prospect from guys in Mid-Round 2 - you'd have to seriously think about it. But I doubt that happens.

Edited February 9 by BillsFanForever19

[BillsWest]

Here you go Josh, plenty of wr help.  What are your thoughts on Xavier Thomas?

 

 

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, BillsWest said:

Here you go Josh, plenty of wr help.  What are your thoughts on Xavier Thomas?

 

 

 

We discussed Thomas somewhere the other day. Former 5 star recruit who has underachieved his talent at Clemson. I think there is still a lot of physical potential if you can refine technique but it was rightly pointed out that he is an older prospect and there is also the question of his "want to". 

[balln]

3 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

This would be great. But I find PFN's board placement of Troy Franklin unrealistic. 

 

I don't see any way he's the 10th Ranked WR and available in the mid to bottom of Round 2. A lot of mocks and other simulators have him not even on the board at 28.

Yea - I agree. Hes a top 16. DEFINITELY a top 20 pick. Do we have any shot of him at 28? ???? 
 

can this finally be the year where there are a million qbs taken so we can get some blue chippers? 

[mrags]

5 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

This would be great. But I find PFN's board placement of Troy Franklin unrealistic. 

 

I don't see any way he's the 10th Ranked WR and available in the mid to bottom of Round 2. A lot of mocks and other simulators have him not even on the board at 28.

That may be true. I think he’s right around 6-8. But I also don’t think there will be 6+ Wars taken in the first round. All it takes is for someone to fall in love with someone larger, or someone faster, someone who has an incredible combine, etc. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, balln said:

Yea - I agree. Hes a top 16. DEFINITELY a top 20 pick. Do we have any shot of him at 28? ???? 
 

can this finally be the year where there are a million qbs taken so we can get some blue chippers? 

 

I think there is very much a shot Franklin is there at #28. I don't expect him to go top 20 personally. Partly because once you get out of the top 10, where the three top guys will go, I don't see a ton of likely WR in the first teams. I think the right range for Franklin is probably in the 20s. 

[mrags]

1 hour ago, balln said:

Yea - I agree. Hes a top 16. DEFINITELY a top 20 pick. Do we have any shot of him at 28? ???? 
 

can this finally be the year where there are a million qbs taken so we can get some blue chippers? 

Kind of where I’m at. Some will say guys like JPJ and some others won’t be there as late as I drafted because of their senior bowl but don’t want to lower the rankings of some others. There’s only 32 picks in the first round. When someone else moves up, someone else has to move down. Right now I’d say that almost everyone has Franklin rated as the 6th-8th WR at this point. Anyone have the numbers on past drafts. How many’s the most of ANY position drafted in the first round. I bet it’s not more than 6-8. There are a ton of terms that need QBs and will be jockeying for position for QB. I’d bet as many as 5 or 6 get drafted in the first round. Corners are always a hot commodity, and so are offensive linemen. I just can’t see more than 6WRs, especially in a draft that’s so deep at WR will be going in the first round. 

[GunnerBill]

15 minutes ago, mrags said:

Kind of where I’m at. Some will say guys like JPJ and some others won’t be there as late as I drafted because of their senior bowl but don’t want to lower the rankings of some others. There’s only 32 picks in the first round. When someone else moves up, someone else has to move down. Right now I’d say that almost everyone has Franklin rated as the 6th-8th WR at this point. Anyone have the numbers on past drafts. How many’s the most of ANY position drafted in the first round. I bet it’s not more than 6-8. There are a ton of terms that need QBs and will be jockeying for position for QB. I’d bet as many as 5 or 6 get drafted in the first round. Corners are always a hot commodity, and so are offensive linemen. I just can’t see more than 6WRs, especially in a draft that’s so deep at WR will be going in the first round. 

 

I think 6 is the record for receivers in round 1. It has happened multiple times but never more than six. I agree that this class likely won't break that record. The record it could break is 13 in the first two rounds which has happened twice: 2020 and 2022 when 6 went round 1 and 7 went round 2. 

 

On JPJ I think he was borderline day 1 going into the Senior Bowl but I am convinced he is a round 1 guy now. 

Edited February 9 by GunnerBill

[mrags]

Took 2 trade backs and ended up getting a 2nd and 3rd next year. Was hoping to trade back up after acquiring the second trade back to take Sweat but was taken just after I traded back. There was still a ton of interesting guys on the board both times so I felt comfortable getting someone I would like. Didn’t expect Franklin to be there at 41 and definitely didn’t expect Mitchell to be there at 60. Couldn’t pass them up. 
 

45.

Troy Franklin

WR Oregon

 

60.

Adonai Mitchell

WR Texas

 

99.

McKinnley Jackson

DT Texas A&M

 

128.

Jaylon Carlies

S Missouri

 

158.

Jordan Jefferson

DT LSU

 

161.

Tahj Washington

WR USC

 

197.

Omar Speights

LB LSU

 

201.

Austin Booker

EDGE Kansas

 

205.

Nehemiah Pritchett

CB Auburn

 

245.

Clark Barrington

OG Baylor

 

2025 NO 2nd

2025 CAR 3rd

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think 6 is the record for receivers in round 1. It has happened multiple times but never more than six. I agree that this class likely won't break that record. The record it could break is 13 in the first two rounds which has happened twice: 2020 and 2022 when 6 went round 1 and 7 went round 2. 

 

On JPJ I think he was borderline day 1 going into the Senior Bowl but I am convinced he is a round 1 guy now. 

100% agree with all of this about the WRs. I don’t think there will be more than 6 in the first round but I do believe there could be 7+ in the second. However, being so deep at WR some teams may think they can hold out an extra round and still get a good player. It’s going to be a fun draft. And lots of things will change after FA as well. 
 

I generally agree with JPJ however, he’s still an interior OLmen and they are generally not first round guys. I’ll give you this, after his senior bowl you definitely have a point. But we’ll see how the teams think about that come draft day. I think Van Pran would be a nice get in the 3rd round also. If he lasts that long. 

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, mrags said:

 

100% agree with all of this about the WRs. I don’t think there will be more than 6 in the first round but I do believe there could be 7+ in the second. However, being so deep at WR some teams may think they can hold out an extra round and still get a good player. It’s going to be a fun draft. And lots of things will change after FA as well. 
 

I generally agree with JPJ however, he’s still an interior OLmen and they are generally not first round guys. I’ll give you this, after his senior bowl you definitely have a point. But we’ll see how the teams think about that come draft day. I think Van Pran would be a nice get in the 3rd round also. If he lasts that long. 

 

There is a good chunk of teams in the 2nd half of the first round with needs at interior Oline. I agree, not ordinarily a position where teams want to spend 1st round picks but there is often a center late in the first - I'm thinking Linderbaum and Ruiz from the last few years. 

[london_bills]

On 2/1/2024 at 8:55 PM, boyst said:

28 Troy Franklin

WR | Oregon A+

 

60 Johnny Wilson

WR | Florida State B

 

99 Jalen McMillan

WR | Washington B+

 

128 Malachi Corley

WR | Western Kentucky B+

 

158 Luke McCaffrey

WR | Rice B

 

161 Javon Baker

WR | UCF C+

 

197 Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint

WR | Georgia B

 

201 Bub Means

WR | Pittsburgh B

 

205 Jha'Quan Jackson

WR | Tulane B

 

245 Zakhari Franklin

WR | UTSA C+

I see what you did here. Put a RB in there

[mrags]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There is a good chunk of teams in the 2nd half of the first round with needs at interior Oline. I agree, not ordinarily a position where teams want to spend 1st round picks but there is often a center late in the first - I'm thinking Linderbaum and Ruiz from the last few years. 

I know. And I generally agree with you on it. He could slip to the 2nd rd but he ain’t gonna be there in the late 40s so there’s that. I think there’s a decent shot that Van Pran makes it to the 3rd. If the clock ticks over to the 3rd rd I’d be all for moving up some spots to get him. But that all depends on the offseason as well. If we not only keep Morse but extend him which I think will happen, I’m not sure a 3rd rounder on a C is the right call. 

[Warriorspikes51]

If Diggs was traded to Houston and we went crazy.  In all seriousness,  Franklin & AD would be really exciting

Franklin 6'3 with elite speed & deep threat. Has knack for being QB friendly on "ad-lib" scramble plays. Only 21. 

Mitchell  6'4 with good speed & great hands.  Has proven to make big plays in big games. Only 21. 

Both are quite good at creating separation and makes them likely Bills targets IMO 

 

Edited February 9 by Warriorspikes51

[GASabresIUFan]

I’ve been playing with the simulators, but realized I needed an approach based upon where we might need starters that could reasonably come from the draft.  Given where we are picking I came to the following conclusion.  The only starter we should expect is at WR.  I also think if we grab DT and Edge early in the draft, they should be able to compete for a starters job or at least significant snaps in rotation with vets.  Even Rousseau rotated into the lineup his first season.

 

I also looked at the depth chart to see what positions Beane might target mid way and late in the draft.

 

Here is the depth chart how I think things will go based on position allocation from 2023 opening day roster

QB Allen - FA Backup

RB Cook - Ty Johnson (FA re-sign), Hines (restructured deal)

TE Kincaid, Knox - Late Round Draftee (or UDFA)

WR Diggs, 1st draft pick, - Shorter, Shakir, late rd pick/Hamler

OT Brown, Dawkins - Van Denmark, Mid Round Draft Pick

OG Torrence, McGovern - Anderson, Doyle

C Morse - Bates, Mid to late Rd Draft pick
 

DT - Oliver, FA signee, - Early Rd Pick, Cheap FA signee, Late Rd Pick (Ideally we bring back Epenesa - because he knows the defense)

Edge - Rousseau, Miller - Early Rd Pick, Jonathan, 

LB - Milano, Benard - Williams, Spector, FA or late Pick

CB- Douglas, Benford, T Johnson, Elam, White (IR), Mid to late pick, Cheap FA

S - Poyer, FA Signee - Mid draft pick, Hamlin, late pick/cheap FA

 

Picks 1,2,3 - WR (w size and hands) Edge, DT - I hope we trade from 28 down some to get an extra 3rd to draft a Safety.

Picks  4,5,6 - S, OT, C, or CB - These are priorities positions to draft because Poyer, T Johnson, Douglas, Dawkins, Brown, and Morse are currently on one year deals.  This may change as some of these guys are extended to reduce their 2024 cap hit.

Picks 7,8,9,10 - CB, DT, WR (speed), LB, S

UDFAs - RB, TE, OLine, Punter?

 

This is my first result using this analysis.  I traded 28 for 35, 71 and 136.  I thought it came out pretty well.

35 - Mitchell, WR Tex - Size, Hands and decent speed

60 - Hall, DL OSU - Good run stuffer who can get to the QB.

71 - Bullock, S USC - I think he could start immediately

99 - Van Pran, C/IOL UGA - Would allow us to possibly trade Bates to save 4+ in cap and get an asset back

128 - Booker, Edge Kan

136 - Pearl, OT Ill

158 - Wingo, DT LSU - Value pick who can rush the passer and stop the run

161 - McCaffrey, WR Rice - good hands and speed

197 - J Jones, CB FSU
201 - Wiley, TE TCU

205 - Jacobs, LB PSU

245 - McClellan, RB Bama

 

Edited February 9 by GASabresIUFan

[mrags]

58 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

If Diggs was traded to Houston and we went crazy.  In all seriousness,  Franklin & AD would be really exciting

Franklin 6'3 with elite speed & deep threat. Has knack for being QB friendly on "ad-lib" scramble plays. Only 21. 

Mitchell  6'4 with good speed & great hands.  Has proven to make big plays in big games. Only 21. 

Both are quite good at creating separation and makes them likely Bills targets IMO 

 

I’d do it in a heartbeat but I don’t think they would ever go into the season with Shakir as the only known vet for Allen. I’d probably leave Corley off the list and try and grab another position of need like DT or S first then try and come back with someone like Rice, Baker, McCaffrey, Burton, Pearsall a round or 2 later.