BillsFanForever19 Posted April 14 Posted April 14 (edited) 47 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said: That's a really cheap trade-up into the top-10, isn't it? For a Top 5 pick? Yes, that's not nearly enough. To 8 though? It's a fairly solid deal. 8 is worth 406. 28, 128, and 160 are worth 238. Let's say next year, Minnesota's 2nd is Pick 43 and ours is Pick 60 (which is a fair estimate) - that's 230 points. Bringing the total to 468 - 406. We'll call the 62 point differential a depreciation based on them being picks next year. But both those 2nd's are worth a 1st next year. If they wanted our 1st instead of the 2 2's, I'd definitely do that too - knowing I could probably move them to get back into the 1st if I wanted to. https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp Edited April 14 by BillsFanForever19 1 Quote
Richard Noggin Posted April 14 Posted April 14 19 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said: For a Top 5 pick? Yes, that's not nearly enough. To 8 though? It's a fairly solid deal. 8 is worth 406. 28, 128, and 160 are worth 238. Let's say next year, Minnesota's 2nd is Pick 43 and ours is Pick 60 (which is a fair estimate) - that's 230 points. Bringing the total to 468 - 406. We'll call the 62 point differential a depreciation based on them being picks next year. But both those 2nd's are worth a 1st next year. If they wanted our 1st instead of the 2 2's, I'd definitely do that too - knowing I could probably move them to get back into the 1st if I wanted to. https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp That's a fair retort. To be even MORE fair you could automatically downgrade each future year's pick by a full round (30ish picks). That would make 2025 2nd rounders actually worth ~90 pts (#72+#90). That would leave a value deficit of roughly 80 pts... ...But now I realize I've been referencing Hill's 2022 updated value chart. Yours is from 2024. Damn. The chart below tells a slightly different story. But no matter which chart you use, the trade you made HEAVILY favors the Bills. Quote
BillsFanForever19 Posted April 14 Posted April 14 (edited) 30 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said: That's a fair retort. To be even MORE fair you could automatically downgrade each future year's pick by a full round (30ish picks). That would make 2025 2nd rounders actually worth ~90 pts (#72+#90). That would leave a value deficit of roughly 80 pts... ...But now I realize I've been referencing Hill's 2022 updated value chart. Yours is from 2024. Damn. The chart below tells a slightly different story. But no matter which chart you use, the trade you made HEAVILY favors the Bills. There's no set rule on the valuation of picks the following year. I think the concept of taking the estimated area of pick and doing a full 32 pick depreciation from there is a little steeper than reality and how they've been valued in recent years. I'd say, at most, you'd say each 2nd is valued as the last two picks in the 2nd - as it's guaranteed to be at least that and almost *definitely* will be worth a lot more (especially since one of them is Minnesota's pick). If we were to do that, the tally would be 406 from Atlanta to 399 from Buffalo. Maybe up the 160 to 144 (keeping the 160) and throwing in 163. That would be 412 from Buffalo and 406 from Atlanta (if we're working on the idea of next year's 2nd's being worth 63 and 64). With 28, 128, 143, 163, and both 2nd's (or next year's 1st, if they preferred that) next year going to Atlanta for Pick 8. Either way, it doesn't "HEAVILY" favor Buffalo. There's a MAJOR difference between trading to 4 and trading to 8. While i'd agree that Sim's often allow trades that are not based in reality, this one isn't unrealistic based on chart values and recent trades. Edited April 14 by BillsFanForever19 1 Quote
Richard Noggin Posted April 14 Posted April 14 8 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said: There's no set rule on the valuation of picks the following year. I think the concept of taking the estimated area of pick and doing a full 32 pick depreciation there is a little steeper than reality and how they've been valued in recent years. I'd say, at most, you'd say each 2nd is valued as the last two picks in the 2nd - as it's guaranteed to be at least that and almost *definitely* will be worth a lot more (especially since one of them is Minnesota's pick). If we were to do that, the tally would be 406 from Atlanta to 399 from Buffalo. Maybe up the 160 to 144 (keeping the 160) and throwing in 163. That would be 412 from Buffalo and 406 from Atlanta (if we're working on the idea of next year's 2nd's being worth 63 and 64). With 28, 128, 143, 163, and both 2nd's (or next year's 1st, if they preferred that) next year going to Atlanta for Pick 8. Either way, it doesn't "HEAVILY" favor Buffalo. There's a MAJOR difference between trading to 4 and trading to 8. While i'd agree that Sim's often allow trades that are not based in reality, this one isn't unrealistic based on chart values and recent trades. You're consistently making rational points. Very happy to read your rebuttals. I just don't think 2 FUTURE 2nds and a current 4th and 5th/6th comes even close to enticing a team at 8 to fall back to 28. It's gonna cost a 1st next year in addition to one of those 2nds, and/or a 2nd this year in addition to those 2nds. (You've even allowed for that 1st next year already, if necessary, so we're not really disagreeing much.) 1 1 Quote
ExWNYer Posted April 14 Posted April 14 NFL Mock Draft Database Simulator: Trade Recap: Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 1, Pick 30 2024: Round 3, Pick 93 Baltimore Receives: 2024: Round 1, Pick 28 2024: Round 5, Pick 163 Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 2, Pick 63 2024: Round 4, Pick 124 2024: Round 5, Pick 135 San Francisco Receives: 2024: Round 2, Pick 60 Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 5, Pick 136 2024: Round 5, Pick 147 Denver Receives: 2024: Round 4, Pick 133 Buffalo Receives: 2025: Round 4 2025: Round 5 2025: Round 7 2025: Round 7 Detroit Receives: 2024: Round 5, Pick 136 Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 5, Pick 161 2025: Round 6 Philadelphia Receives: 2024: Round 5, Pick 160 Buffalo Receives: 2024: Round 5, Pick 167 2025: Round 5 2025: Round 7 2025: Round 7 Minnesota Receives: 2024: Round 5, Pick 161 1 Quote
Dr. Who Posted April 14 Posted April 14 (edited) Traded our 2025 second to move up in the second. Detroit moved up one and gifted #98. That was nice of them. 29. Adonai MitchellWR Texas 40. Ladd McConkeyWR Georgia 98. T'Vondre SweatDT Texas 128. Tykee SmithS Georgia 133. Jaylen WrightRB Tennessee 144. Zak ZinterOG Michigan 160. Cedric JohnsonEDGE Ole Miss 200. Brevyn Spann-FordTE Minnesota 204. Nehemiah PritchettCB Auburn 248. Frank CrumOT Wyoming Edited April 14 by Dr. Who 3 Quote
ScorpionZero Posted April 14 Posted April 14 PFN, this feel like a dream. No trades and what a haul. 28. Adonai MitchellWR Texas 60. Xavier LegetteWR South Carolina 128. Austin BookerEDGE Kansas 133. Mason McCormickOG South Dakota State 144. Javon SolomonEDGE Troy 160. Kitan OladapoS Oregon State 163. Isaac GuerendoRB Louisville 200. Tip ReimanTE Illinois 204. Dwight McGlothernCB Arkansas 248. Fabien LovettDT Florida State 1 1 Quote
ScorpionZero Posted April 14 Posted April 14 (edited) MDD 1 trade. That's allot of beef on the right side of center. 33 Amarius Mims OT | Georgia TRADE 39 Xavier Worthy WR | Texas TRADE 60 Xavier Legette WR | South Carolina 128 Ben Sinnott TE | Kansas State 133 Nehemiah Pritchett CB | Auburn 144 Mason McCormick IOL | South Dakota State 160 Isaac Guerendo RB | Louisville 163 Tyler Davis DL | Clemson 200 Joe Milton QB | Tennessee 204 Jalyx Hunt EDGE | Houston Baptist Edited April 14 by ScorpionZero Quote
ghostwriter Posted April 15 Posted April 15 28 Troy Franklin WR | Oregon 62 Cooper Beebe IOL | Kansas State TRADE 93 DeWayne Carter DL | Duke TRADE 128 Luke McCaffrey WR | Rice 133 Malik Mustapha S | Wake Forest 144 Ben Sinnott TE | Kansas State 160 Tommy Eichenberg LB | Ohio State 163 Justin Eboigbe DL | Alabama 200 Nelson Ceaser EDGE | Houston 204 Sataoa Laumea IOL | Utah 248 Dwight McGlothern CB | Arkansas 250 J.D. Bertrand LB | Notre Dame 1 Quote
ScorpionZero Posted April 15 Posted April 15 ESPN Round 1, Pick 28 Adonai Mitchell Texas Round 2, Pick 60 Troy Franklin Oregon Round 4, Pick 128 Beau Brade Maryland Round 4, Pick 133 Tip Reiman Illinois Round 5, Pick 144 Isaac Guerendo Louisville Round 5, Pick 160 Myles Cole Texas Tech Round 5, Pick 163 Tyler Davis Clemson Round 6, Pick 200 Kitan Oladapo Oregon State Round 6, Pick 204 Jalyx Hunt Houston Christian Round 7, Pick 248 Andrew Raym Oklahoma Quote
Dr. Who Posted April 15 Posted April 15 1 minute ago, ScorpionZero said: ESPN Round 1, Pick 28 Adonai Mitchell Texas Round 2, Pick 60 Troy Franklin Oregon Round 4, Pick 128 Beau Brade Maryland Round 4, Pick 133 Tip Reiman Illinois Round 5, Pick 144 Isaac Guerendo Louisville Round 5, Pick 160 Myles Cole Texas Tech Round 5, Pick 163 Tyler Davis Clemson Round 6, Pick 200 Kitan Oladapo Oregon State Round 6, Pick 204 Jalyx Hunt Houston Christian Round 7, Pick 248 Andrew Raym Oklahoma I picture you as a bear that comes out of hibernation to mock draft, and then grabs a beer and goes back to sleep after the draft is over. I like this draft, btw, but I'd rather trade up using a 2025 second to go grab McConkey to go along with Mitchell. Quote
BillsFanForever19 Posted April 15 Posted April 15 (edited) 23 hours ago, Richard Noggin said: You're consistently making rational points. Very happy to read your rebuttals. I just don't think 2 FUTURE 2nds and a current 4th and 5th/6th comes even close to enticing a team at 8 to fall back to 28. It's gonna cost a 1st next year in addition to one of those 2nds, and/or a 2nd this year in addition to those 2nds. (You've even allowed for that 1st next year already, if necessary, so we're not really disagreeing much.) There isn't an exact baseline for the trade. As the two big trades that are used as a basis are moves to 6 and 10. This is to 8. But to review: 2011 Trade from 27-6: 1st, 2nd, and 4th in 2011 1st and 4th in 2012 2017 Trade from 27-10: 1st and 3rd in 2017 1st in 2018 So a move from 28-8 should be less than the 2011 Trade, but more than the 2017 Trade. My proposal was: 1st, 4th, 5th, and 5th in 2024 2nd and 2nd in 2025 Or 1st, 4th, 5th, and 5th in 2024 1st in 2025 Again, If the 21 picks from 27 to 6 was two 1sts, a 2nd, and 2 4ths - moving 20 picks from 28 to 8 needs to be less. Maybe it should be: 1st, 4th, and 5th in 2024 1st and 3rd in 2025 This would be more than the Two 1sts and a 3rd cost in the Mahomes trade to 10 and less than the Julio Jones trade to 6. I may or may not pay that price for Odunze. But in the insane scenario that either Harrison or Nabers were there - I think I'd do it. Especially with the extra picks we have this year, the extra 2nd from Diggs next year, and the projected 4th and 5th comp picks for Davis and Floyd next year. That would still leave us with: Pick 8 in Round 1, Round 2, Round 4, Round 5, Round 5, Round 6, Round 6, and Round 7 this year Round 2, Round 2, Round 4, Round 4, Round 5, Round 6, and Round 6 next year. Edited April 15 by BillsFanForever19 Quote
gonzo1105 Posted April 15 Posted April 15 I've said it once and I'll say it again. While simulators are fun to do, they involved unrealistic trades and player rankings that are severely out of date at this time of year. 2 1 Quote
Richard Noggin Posted April 15 Posted April 15 (edited) Effectively traded UP in next year's first round (Tenn) by trading BACK into this year's 2nd and then UP higher into both 2nd and 3rd this year. Got a LOT of offensive prospects (at STRONG values) while still adding much needed defensive depth/contributors. This draft emphasizes what most fans want it to: OFFENSE. What would we think of adding JPJ and Worthy and Pearsall in first two days (when we only had 2 picks to begin with)? And then a bunch of early day three depth dudes on both sides of the ball. Trading back always ends up being the most rewarding total haul, even though it involves voluntarily surrendering a pool of awesome prospects to other teams and then painfully watching those players get selected one-by-one ahead of our later pick. Edit: 1st rd trade-back Edited April 15 by Richard Noggin Quote
GunnerBill Posted April 15 Posted April 15 Interesting thought exercise for folks.... I just did one on PFN where when on the clock at #28 the Chiefs made me an offer to trade up. Now normally the answer would be "don't trade with the Chiefs" but to come up from #32 (600 by the JJ chart) to #28 (660) they were offering to swap their second #64 (270) for my fourth #128 (44). So essentially they were essentially overpaying by the chart by 170 points which is the equivalent of a free mid 3rd round pick. I should say WR wise just the top 3 and Thomas were gone. Would you take that trade? I considered it too good to refuse and accepted. They then took Xavier Worthy with the pick and I thought that is going to be a pain for years to come but it allowed me to maximise my value and I ended up with: #32 AD Mitchell #57 (traded up three spots using a 5th) Jackson Powers-Johnson who fell - and I'm not sure he will fall that far but increasingly reading and hearing people say he drops out of the first. #66 Braden Fiske after two small trade downs which allowed me to turn #133 into #104 in the meantime #104 Jaden Hicks So would I want the Bills to take that trade in reality? I mean I think the value is pretty enticing. If I got those first four picks out of it I'd be delighted. 3 Quote
CSBill Posted April 15 Posted April 15 On 2/8/2024 at 12:44 AM, Richard Noggin said: Ergo. "Our linguistic pendulum swings away from the literate and toward the spoken in the ages of Youtube and TikTok, ergo people who call out spelling/grammar mistakes online are sad relics." Harlan Coben wannabes. 1 Quote
nosejob Posted April 15 Posted April 15 On 4/13/2024 at 5:55 PM, ScorpionZero said: PFN What did this cost? Quote
Ralonzo Posted April 15 Posted April 15 First shot trying out the ESPN simulator. Round 1, Pick 28 Brian Thomas Jr. LSU WR Rk: 24 - Lol no-brainer. A perfect start. *** TRADE *** #60 + #133 for #62 + #113 (BAL - JaLynn Polk + Jared Wiley) Round 2, Pick 62 Kingsley Suamataia BYU OT Rk: 44 - Felt 60 was too high for a Hicks or Bishop, so took the small trade down to improve an asset. - But then... there's Suamataia sitting at 62 at a premium position. Kinda gotta. Round 4, Pick 113 Austin Booker Kansas EDGE Rk: 112 - Traitsy underclassman at another premium position. High ceiling, lots of room for physical and technique development. Round 4, Pick 128 Tanor Bortolini Wisconsin C/G Rk: 122 - Another case of rare athleticism for an early enty at a pipeline position. Round 5, Pick 144 Dominique Hampton Washington CB/S Rk: 146 - Has the size and speed for big nickel, and ST applications ala Siran Neal. Round 5, Pick 160 Isaac Guerendo Louisville RB Rk: 153 - Explosive, blazing top-end speed can make one cut and head to the house. Round 5, Pick 163 Decamerion Richardson Miss. State CB Rk: 161 - Long and explosive, he's a projection here. Insofar as he compares to Elam, it's fine for #163OA. Round 6, Pick 200 Jordan Magee Temple ILB Rk: 167 - Fits the rangy and instinctive LB profile the Bills currently favor. Round 6, Pick 204 Myles Cole Texas Tech DE/DT Rk: 117 - He could be Groot or could be Boogie but this isn't much capital to invest to find out. Round 7, Pick 248 Malik Mustapha Wake Forest S Rk: 225 - This is a stupid ranking on the site, irl this probably never happens. Frankly I'm happy with him at 144 if need be. 1 Quote
ScorpionZero Posted April 15 Posted April 15 1 hour ago, nosejob said: What did this cost? A couple back end picks this year and I think 1st & 4th next. I can't be sure though. 1 Quote
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