Why the Josh Allen hate (draft reaction)?

[Wayne Arnold]

10 hours ago, Gman10 said:

Im a newer football fan, but came across this Josh Allen draft reaction. Was everyone really upset when he was drafted?

 

 

 

The analytics nerds hated Josh Allen coming out of college. And groupthink is contagious. 

 

These analytics nerds failed to take into account that Allen was playing in the worst system/program for a quarterback in the country (because Wyoming was his only offer), surrounded by limited talent (especially his final season), and he was 110% gunslinger who didn't give a crap about completion percentage or TD:INT ratios. 

 

Not a good mix if you want to show the stats that the analytical nerds consider high probability of success in the NFL.

 

(And normally coaches who have old-school, archaic systems will coach the gunslinger out of their quarterbacks and tell them to protect the ball at all times. But Wyoming's coaches let Allen do whatever the hell he wanted. I think they thought it was funny.)

 

But old school scouts drooled over Allen's physical tools. Big, strong, rocket for an arm. Allen became the posterboy for Old School Scouting vs. 'Moneyball' Analytical Concepts of Scouting. If you were smart, you knew Allen wouldn't pan out. If you were an old meathead, you were fooled by his size and strong arm. 

 

Fast-forward seven years later, and it's crazy how the analytical nerds now LOVE Josh Allen, whereas the old-school dudes who have permanent brainworms over how they value the importance of turnovers do not love him.

[ddaryl]

10 hours ago, Gman10 said:

Im a newer football fan, but came across this Josh Allen draft reaction. Was everyone really upset when he was drafted?

 

There were concerns about a colege QB who has never thrown for more than a 56% completion percentage going on to the pros and doing what Allen is doing now. Basically Allen is well over 60% completion % as a pro, and anybody and everybody had to be concerned because he is an anomally

Edited January 31 by ddaryl

[HamSandwhich]

Well, they were right, the pundits are always right and they said he sucks. Just saying and all that happy horsesh*t that kids say these days 

[2003Contenders]

Looking back it is amazing the way things fell into place.

 

First, we went into the draft -- or rather into the draft season -- with 2 first round picks, but both of them were late (back-to-back in the 20s). One of those picks came via the trade with KC on the swap of 1st round picks the year before, where KC netted Mahomes 10th overall. The other came via the Bills having made it to the playoffs for the first time in 17 seasons the year before. Beane also traded Tyrod Taylor to Cleveland in exchange for the 1st pick in the 3rd round.

 

Beane traded Cordy Glenn to the Bengals to move up 10 spots, which had us sitting at 12 on draft day. When the Jets made the move with Indy to move up from 6 to 3, everyone knew they were going QB there. Everyone also knew that Cleveland was going QB at #1 overall. Knowing that at least 2 QBs would be off the board by the time the 4th pick came along, Beane had tried all through the pre-draft to move up. He tried to work out a deal with his old mentor from Carolina (who in 2018 was GM of the Giants) to move up to 2, but they were not willing to budge.

 

After having taken their QB at #1 (Mayfield), Beane thought he had a deal in place with the Browns to move up for their next pick (at 4) but they reneged and took Denzel Ward. The Ward pick had a rippling affect, because the Broncos (like most pundits) thought that the Browns would take Bradley Chubb there -- and when Chubb was available, the Broncos themselves backed off the trade they had in the works with the Bills (at least the Broncos made it clear ahead of time that the trade was contingent on the one player they coveted NOT still being on the board). Both of those deals would have involved Beane parting ways with that other 1st round pick.

 

At #6, the Colts were dead set on Nelson and were unwilling to move down. Tampa was willing to trade down to 12 but they wanted the same deal that had been in place with Cleveland/Denver, the Bills other first round pick. The two sides eventually agreed to the Bills' two second round picks.

 

On an unrelated note, Beane used that pick acquired from Cleveland in the Tyrod trade to move up in the 1st to net Edmunds. Funny that Edmunds was almost as polarizing a figure in Buffalo as Josh. LOL

 

[Jay_Fixit]

11 hours ago, Low Positive said:

You don’t have to wonder what people thought. Here it all is in glorious detail:

 

A lot of posters I don’t think are terrible made some really terrible posts in here. 
 

None of us know anything. At all.

[Jay_Fixit]

10 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

There wasn't universal unhappiness or universal happiness.  

 

The situation was this:   The Bills hadn't had a good quarterback since Kelly retired - 20 years.   The one year they had a top 10 pick, the only guys arguably good enough to go in the first round were EJ Manuel and Geno Smith.   Bills took Manuel, and the pain continued.  

 

So, finally, by virtue of a lousy finish and a trade up, the Bills had, I think, the 12th pick in a draft that had four guys deemed to be true first-round talent, plus Lamar Jackson, who was intriguing but not rated that highly.  So, Bills fans had a lot invested in who the team would draft.  The question really was, who would be left at 12?  As the draft approached, it seemed the Browns were going to take Mayfield, the Giants were going to go running back, the Jets would take Darnold, and probably one of the two Joshes would fall to the Bills at 12.  Everyone had a favorite between those two, and of course everyone hoped that some miracle would happen and Mayfield or Darnold would fall.   

 

It was the most important draft for the Bills in 20 years.   (Well, if the Bills hadn't traded up for JP Losman and just sat tight, the next year Aaron Rodgers would have fallen in their laps, so that was a pretty important draft decision.)   

 

And then Beane traded up to get to #7.  Mayfield and Darnold were gone, but now Beane had his pick between Allen and Rosen.  The suspense for a few minutes was agonizing.  Who would it be?

 

Going into the draft, if I had to choose, I'd always said I'd take Rosen.   Then, literally as the Commish walked to the podium, I thought, "Allen.  Allen!  ALLEN!!!"   I wanted the body and the arm over Rosen's supposed brain.  So, I was smiling that night.  

It was probably 80% unhappiness. Just look through that old thread. So if 80% isn’t universal, you may be technically correct. Even through you’re not.

[Low Positive]

6 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

A lot of posters I don’t think are terrible made some really terrible posts in here. 
 

None of us know anything. At all.

I think so many of us had spent so much time “scouting” QBs in the lead up to that draft that we thought that we knew more than we did. I’ll admit that I was a Rosen guy, mostly because I thought that he fit the Tom Brady role. When we traded up, I stood up out of my chair. Then when the pick was announced, it was like time stopped for a beat on the word “Josh.” I was sure that we had our franchise pocket passer. Then when the word “Allen” left Goodell’s lips I let out a loud “No!!!!!!!” But I think I came around later that night after I heard him speak. 

[Don Otreply]

11 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I actually wanted him. I was relieved when they said "Allen" and not the wanna be Josh.

I too was in on Allen, one of the few times I was right about a draft pick 😂

[GunnerBill]

I have been back and watched some of his Wyoming games again since. I missed on how good his legs were. I definitely missed that in my original scouting of him. The rest? I still don't like the college film. I still see throws that are erratic at best and sail miles over receivers heads. But I will credit the recently returned for a guest appearance @thebandit27 because he and I had quite a detailed conversation pre-draft and he said the inaccuracy is not what I term "natural inaccuracy" it is a technical issue - he has an over striding problem and it throws his mechanics off and if he can get that fixed accuracy will not be a problem.

 

After that first NFL season I remember hearing Jordan Palmer on a podcast say of his work with Josh "we are focussing on his lower half mechanics we think the inconsistent accuracy is caused by a slight over striding that throws the sync between his feet and his upper body off." So Bandit nailed it. There were a few who liked Josh Allen quite a bit but Bandit was the only one I remember here (and frankly I don't remember any of the main talking heads saying it at the time either although I've heard a couple refer to it since) who correctly diagnosed the one critical element that was going to make or break it for Josh. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I have been back and watched some of his Wyoming games again since. I missed on how good his legs were. I definitely missed that in my original scouting of him. The rest? I still don't like the college film. I still see throws that are erratic at best and sail miles over receivers heads. But I will credit the recently returned for a guest appearance @thebandit27 because he and I had quite a detailed conversation pre-draft and he said the inaccuracy is not what I term "natural inaccuracy" it is a technical issue - he has an over striding problem and it throws his mechanics off and if he can get that fixed accuracy will not be a problem.

 

After that first NFL season I remember hearing Jordan Palmer on a podcast say of his work with Josh "we are focussing on his lower half mechanics we think the inconsistent accuracy is caused by a slight over striding that throws the sync between his feet and his upper body off." So Bandit nailed it. There were a few who liked Josh Allen quite a bit but Bandit was the only one I remember here (and frankly I don't remember any of the main talking heads saying it at the time either although I've heard a couple refer to it since) who correctly diagnosed the one critical element that was going to make or break it for Josh. 

Can you imagine if Allen, instead of Mayfield, went to OU for 2-3 years? Damn...

[Jay_Fixit]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I have been back and watched some of his Wyoming games again since. I missed on how good his legs were. I definitely missed that in my original scouting of him. The rest? I still don't like the college film. I still see throws that are erratic at best and sail miles over receivers heads. But I will credit the recently returned for a guest appearance @thebandit27 because he and I had quite a detailed conversation pre-draft and he said the inaccuracy is not what I term "natural inaccuracy" it is a technical issue - he has an over striding problem and it throws his mechanics off and if he can get that fixed accuracy will not be a problem.

 

After that first NFL season I remember hearing Jordan Palmer on a podcast say of his work with Josh "we are focussing on his lower half mechanics we think the inconsistent accuracy is caused by a slight over striding that throws the sync between his feet and his upper body off." So Bandit nailed it. There were a few who liked Josh Allen quite a bit but Bandit was the only one I remember here (and frankly I don't remember any of the main talking heads saying it at the time either although I've heard a couple refer to it since) who correctly diagnosed the one critical element that was going to make or break it for Josh. 

This is nice considering your post in the original thread was a gigantic yikes.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

This is nice considering your post in the original thread was a gigantic yikes.

 

Oh I was completely wrong on Josh Allen. Never disputed that. I even said in that thread I want to be the guy known as being wrong on Josh Allen. So mission accomplished. All I ever do is give my honest view. You get some right, you get some wrong. That's life. Never be afraid of making a mistake. 

[BritBill]

You got the day off today, @GunnerBill? 😀

[Captain Hindsight]

11 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

That and Rosen felt Brady esque in that he didn't have an elite arm but was good at reading defenses. Able to lead his team back (see win at USC). He just seemed to be the safest QB to draft. 

I loved Rosens tape. He was like a machine and did his reads perfectly, good mechanics, good enough arm  all that good stuff. 
 

Mayfield was just fun. I thought he’d be successful wherever he went and he sorta has. Two playoffs wins for two organizations is pretty impressive. 
 

Darnold had the turnovers issues. I didn’t really have an issue with his INTs. At least he trusted his arm, you can work on reads with a guy like that, but he was so careless with the ball and his fumbles were very concerning. He never seemed to sense the pressure well and protect the ball and himself
 

Allen had some serious wow plays but also some serious wtf plays. His talent was eye popping, but tons of guys had his talent that couldn’t put it together. 
 

The 2018 Draft changed how I looked at QB Prospects. Started looking at what they could do vs what they had done. Rosen, In hindsight, couldn’t do anything off script. Couldn’t improvise. He was mechanical, coached to do things a certain way and couldn’t adjust. That works in college, but not in the pros.  Allen could sit in the pocket and throw a dime, or he could run backwards, throw a DT off of him, spin around and then throw a dime. One of those guys has a much better shot in the pros

 

It’s why this last draft I saw nothing in Bryce Young didn’t look like a 1st round pick to me, much less number one overall. I would have taken Richardson, then stroud, then Levis. All those guys had issues and their game wasn’t as “clean” as young.  But give me a guy that can run through a wall and rip a pass into double coverage. Those are the throws you have to make in the pros. Young looks like Rosen in the pros and Carolina doesn’t get a mulligan like AZ got 

[Westside]

11 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

Nah the good ol' days was ICE wanting to fire everyone in sight after a loss 😄 or the board getting Jay Rosen'd or endless Belinda posts.

LOL! You're correct sir! I miss those days. Do you remember hogboy? I think that was his name. Didn't he call volunteer Firefighters arsonists? OMG, That was hilarious!

[T master]

12 hours ago, Gman10 said:

Im a newer football fan, but came across this Josh Allen draft reaction. Was everyone really upset when he was drafted?

 

 

 

This just goes to show us all how much the Bills Mafia doesn't know about choosing football players or management & staff !!

 

I was one on the Rosen train & man am i glad Beane didn't go that way even though Rosen would have had a better shot at developing here than where he went i still don't think he is in any way as good as Josh Allen .

 

Which this reaction to the Bills drafting him tells me all i need to know about the McD hate here ...

[Man with No Name]

It honestly impresses me that the scouts could see through the stats, over throws, etc. seems like a guy they would peg as a "RAW" talent and slot in a later round. but there was a pretty strong consensus that he was a top 10 guy. 

Though i wonder how many teams that obsessed over analytics wouldn't have seen him as anything more than 3rd round or worse

[Roundybout]

On a related note, can’t believe Rosen isn’t even a BACKUP in the league 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Jay_Fixit said:

It was probably 80% unhappiness. Just look through that old thread. So if 80% isn’t universal, you may be technically correct. Even through you’re not.

First - LOL funny!   Thanks.  I'm on my first cup of coffee and needed an extra jolt!

 

Second - that thread really is something.  

 

Third - I think you're falling into the trap of thinking that the posts in any popular thread reflect the opinion of all Bills fans, or even all people who post here.  Two months ago it was 80-20 here to fire McDermott.   I never believed 80% of Bills fans wanted him gone.  It was just that a lot posters decided they didn't want to waste time responding to the hysterical cries of some fans.

 

 

2 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

But old school scouts drooled over Allen's physical tools. Big, strong, rocket for an arm. Allen became the posterboy for Old School Scouting vs. 'Moneyball' Analytical Concepts of Scouting. If you were smart, you knew Allen wouldn't pan out. If you were an old meathead, you were fooled by his size and strong arm. 

 

There's a great story about an old scout who was, I think, the head scout for the Astros.   He had been sending reports to the team for two or three years telling them that this shortstop was the greatest prospect he had seen in his entire career.  Best player ever, can't miss.  Astros had the first pick and went another way.  Yankees had the second pick and took Jeter.  The scout quit.  

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

14 minutes ago, Man with No Name said:

It honestly impresses me that the scouts could see through the stats, over throws, etc.

 

Because they are scouts and not arm chair GMs who constantly get their scouting news from the TBD wanna-be General Managers and pundits out to make a name for themselves.