Ben Johnson Staying in Detroit

[MrEpsYtown]

11 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

That team just gave up all their talent and has nothing set at QB, what’s good? A new owner who’s proven to be ruthless in pursuit of winning?  Yeah, not where I’m starting my HC career if I have a choice. 

 

My view is that they have a bunch of skill players and a ton of picks which includes the 2nd pick in the draft. So a coach coming in essentially gets to draft his own QB, has guys like McLaurin, Dotson, and B. Robinson, plus 2 excellent DTs, 5 top 100 picks, and their 6th is 102. So 6 draft picks in the top 102.  So if you are a coach you have a ton of picks, including the QB to choose, some established big-time players, and a roster whose average age is 26. Plus an owner with money and 83 million in cap space. It's a great job

 

They gave up Montez who they didn't want to pay for a high 2nd rounder, and an underachieving Chase Young who may be a healthy scratch for the Super Bowl. Gave up all their talent is overstated. 

[HappyDays]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

But then in context is losing playoff games that come down to one or two plays to Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid underperforming?

 

That's where the disconnect is. I don't agree that our losses to the Chiefs in the playoffs have come down to one or two plays. In every respect but the final score, the games were not close. It's like the Ravens/Texans wildcard game this year. The score may have been equal at halftime, but the teams were not close even in the 1st half.

 

We talk about luck mattering in the playoffs. Well, the Bills got lucky against the Chiefs both times. In the divisional round in 2022 the Chiefs lost 4 points on a missed FG and a missed XP. Without that, instead of being an all-time classic it's just a frustrating game where the Chiefs slowly pull ahead and never let up. This year we again got lucky when Mecole Hardman stupidly fumbled the ball through the endzone. Without that, they go up by 10 and the game is effectively over. Today we're all talking about a horrific fake punt effort and abysmal defense ending the game, instead of hemming and hawing over how the Bills should have handled the final 2 minutes.

 

I get that the natural inclination is to boil any one score game down to the final series, but that's not really accurate. That final series only mattered because we got lucky. The truth is the Chiefs dismantled us in that game from start to finish. Our offense kept up for as long as it could thanks to an unreal effort by Allen (with honorable mention to Shakir), but ~8 yards per play versus ~4 yards per play, eventually the first team is just naturally going to pull away, unless the turnover margin or something like that is heavily favoring the 2nd team. So it was not a game that just came down to one or two plays. It was an abysmal defensive showing from start to finish, along with an abysmal special teams play, that gave us almost no chance to win.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

It was an abysmal defensive showing from start to finish, along with an abysmal special teams play, that gave us almost no chance to win.

 

But that's the thing..... it didn't. The awful defense and the awful special teams still left us a 73% win percentage probability by the analytics at the 2 minute warning. 

[MJS]

I don't blame him. With only Washington left, he'd be back coordinating in two years and might not get another shot as HC.

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But that's the thing..... it didn't. The awful defense and the awful special teams still left us a 73% win percentage probability by the analytics at the 2 minute warning. 

 

Where do you see 73%? ESPN's win probability never has us at more than 48.5% win probability on that final drive, but that's besides the point. The only reason we got there is because we got incredibly lucky on one single play that completely changed the game.

 

Teams that dominate their opponent can still occasionally lose because of one or two very swing-y plays. Still the domination happened. Our defense has been dominated by the Chiefs every time we've faced them in the playoffs. Eventually that has to change. Relying on an absolutely perfect showing from the offense AND one or two very lucky plays is not a realistic standard for victory.

 

Our TDs came on drives of 11 plays, 12 plays, and 15 plays. Our last drive even if Allen had hit Shakir it would have been a 14 play TD drive. That's an incredicly difficult needle to thread consistently and not realistic to expect it to keep up. The Chiefs on the other hand had TD drives of 5 plays, 6 plays, and 8 plays. So again, the game did not just come down to the final series. Any way you choose to look at it, they dominated us.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Where do you see 73%? ESPN's win probability never has us at more than 48.5% win probability on that final drive, but that's besides the point. The only reason we got there is because we got incredibly lucky on one single play that completely changed the game.

 

Teams that dominate their opponent can still occasionally lose because of one or two very swing-y plays. Still the domination happened. Our defense has been dominated by the Chiefs every time we've faced them in the playoffs. Eventually that has to change. Relying on an absolutely perfect showing from the offense AND one or two very lucky plays is not a realistic standard for victory.

 

Our TDs came on drives of 11 plays, 12 plays, and 15 plays. Our last drive even if Allen had hit Shakir it would have been a 14 play TD drive. That's an incredicly difficult needle to thread consistently and not realistic to expect it to keep up. The Chiefs on the other hand had TD drives of 5 plays, 6 plays, and 8 plays. So again, the game did not just come down to the final series. Any way you choose to look at it, they dominated us.

 

It was Next Gen Stats.

 

I have never said the game just came down to the final drive. That has never been my argument. But after 58 minuted of football the Bills were in position and if they had executed 2 or 3 plays at the end they would have won.

 

[Aussie Joe]

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It was Next Gen Stats.

 

I have never said the game just came down to the final drive. That has never been my argument. But after 58 minuted of football the Bills were in position and if they had executed 2 or 3 plays at the end they would have won.

 

I agree with you ..: but perhaps we should say “in a position to take the lead and win the game”..given some of the scenarios we have seen before..

 

 

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

34 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It was Next Gen Stats.

 

I have never said the game just came down to the final drive. That has never been my argument. But after 58 minuted of football the Bills were in position and if they had executed 2 or 3 plays at the end they would have won.

 

 

 

I'd say they were about 10 executable plays away from winning that game.    It was do-able and it was the route to victory.   But 2-3 is seriously downplaying it.   But OK,  if 1 was the TD to Shakir.......the other 2 were what?   A sack that they have never had in 3 playoff games against Mahomes?   An interception when they hadn't turned the ball over offensively and his receivers were largely running wide open all day?  

 

 

Edited January 31 by BADOLBILZ

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Where do you see 73%? ESPN's win probability never has us at more than 48.5% win probability on that final drive, but that's besides the point. The only reason we got there is because we got incredibly lucky on one single play that completely changed the game.

 

Teams that dominate their opponent can still occasionally lose because of one or two very swing-y plays. Still the domination happened. Our defense has been dominated by the Chiefs every time we've faced them in the playoffs. Eventually that has to change. Relying on an absolutely perfect showing from the offense AND one or two very lucky plays is not a realistic standard for victory.

 

Our TDs came on drives of 11 plays, 12 plays, and 15 plays. Our last drive even if Allen had hit Shakir it would have been a 14 play TD drive. That's an incredicly difficult needle to thread consistently and not realistic to expect it to keep up. The Chiefs on the other hand had TD drives of 5 plays, 6 plays, and 8 plays. So again, the game did not just come down to the final series. Any way you choose to look at it, they dominated us.

 

 

I will say I think the 13 seconds game was a closer fight.   Coin luck gave KC two extra possessions in that game.  That mattered more than the missed 4 points off of kicks(which happened early enough to perhaps change the Bills offensive strategy in the 3rd quarter, which is where they really lost that game).  

 

But your point stands though, IMO.

 

The Bills haven't been the better team in any of the 3 playoff losses to KC.

 

And as closely as the teams are matched,  you'd think that once in 3 times the lesser team would win.   That's how the NFL works and when you see such a game the clock was quite often a big ally of the team that springs the upset.   The Bills had it in their hand but they only proved less competent in defeat because of it, IMO.  I'm still aghast at 2nd and 9.   That's the same as 13 seconds to me. 

 

 

Edited January 31 by BADOLBILZ

[Einstein]

25 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

I'd say they were about 10 executable plays away from winning that game.    It was do-able and it was the route to victory.   But 2-3 is seriously downplaying it.   But OK,  if 1 was the TD to Shakir.......the other 2 were what?   A sack that they have never had in 3 playoff games against Mahomes?   An interception when they hadn't turned the ball over offensively and his receivers were largely running wide open all day? 

 

Wasn't there another TD drop in the endzone? Or was that against Pitt? It was in the corner of the endzone .

[colin]

imo if mcd misses the playoffs next year, someone like johnson could come in ala dungy going to indy w manning and just be gift wrapped a race car ready to run.

 

we should be past our biggest cap hurdle next season, and will have a bunch of new young talent and less heavy contracts.  

 

i don't think it's that likely tho, because mcd has shown he should be able to get decent performance on d from lack luster talent through the reg season, so any improvement on O and we are basically a better team next season than this season.

[BADOLBILZ]

12 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Wasn't there another TD drop in the endzone? Or was that against Pitt? It was in the corner of the endzone .

 

Not that I recall.   But the Shakir TD catch had to be single digit catch probability.   As with his catch/conversion near the goal line on that low throw.   And another bullet behind the LOS he caught reaching back was incredible.   They executed a lot of plays to get where they were despite only gaining 4 yards per play on offense.   The 2 deep incompletions to Sherfield were just cases of throwing the ball to a bad player who hadn't caught those type of passes all season.    The Diggs deep drop actually may have worked to their advantage by forcing them to work the clock and execute 14 plays and have 2nd and 9 deep in Chiefs territory with just 2 minutes left.   The good players on the offense ultimately didn't leave much on the table, relatively speaking.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'd say they were about 10 executable plays away from winning that game.    It was do-able and it was the route to victory.   But 2-3 is seriously downplaying it.   But OK,  if 1 was the TD to Shakir.......the other 2 were what?   A sack that they have never had in 3 playoff games against Mahomes?   An interception when they hadn't turned the ball over offensively and his receivers were largely running wide open all day?  

 

 

 

Well if they'd found the first down throw on the 2nd and 9 play instead..... then KC is using time outs (they only had 2) you score... I mean I think 2-4 if I stretch it one is realistic. 

 

But equally, had the Shakir play been a touchdown and then the defense had folded in on itself again and let KC score a touchdown that is a different conversation to what happened. Who knows what we might then be considering. 

Edited January 31 by GunnerBill

[GETTOTHE50]

If we can get Ben, then maybe Amon Ra will join him 😍

 

one can dream 

[Einstein]

49 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

The Diggs deep drop actually may have worked to their advantage by forcing them to work the clock and execute 14 plays and have 2nd and 9 deep in Chiefs territory with just 2 minutes left.   The good players on the offense ultimately didn't leave much on the table, relatively speaking.

 

If Diggs catches that ball, we have it near the 20 yard line. Even after our clock-eating drive, we still didn’t get it as far as we would have been had Diggs caught it and stumbled for a couple yards.

 

With Bass being shaky, it’s hard to imagine those extra yards not mattering.

 

That being said it’s likely all moot because I have 0 faith that we would have stopped KC from getting a game winning field goal. 
 

Had we scored a TD, I honestly think we win. Then again, that would require Bass to make the extra point. Yikes.

[Cash]

18 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'd say they were about 10 executable plays away from winning that game.    It was do-able and it was the route to victory.   But 2-3 is seriously downplaying it.   But OK,  if 1 was the TD to Shakir.......the other 2 were what?   A sack that they have never had in 3 playoff games against Mahomes?   An interception when they hadn't turned the ball over offensively and his receivers were largely running wide open all day?  

 

 

 

I'll bite.

1. 2nd and 9, hit Diggs on the short crosser.  Sets up 1st and 10 from the 16, KC calls timeout #2 with about 1:51 remaining
2. 1st and 10, run for 3 yards.  KC calls timeout #3 with about 1:44 remaining
3. 2nd and 7 from the 13, run for 4 yards.  Clock runs down to about 1 minute
4. 3rd and 3 from the 9, run for 4 yards.  Clock runs down to about 25 seconds
5. TD on 1st or 2nd or 3rd down.  Bills have 2 timeouts left so running is still viable.  Maximum time left is about 20 seconds.

There you have it - 5 plays, all on the final drive, and we're up 4 and need to prevent a TD in the last 5-20 seconds.  The runs could also be checkdowns instead.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, Cash said:

 

I'll bite.

1. 2nd and 9, hit Diggs on the short crosser.  Sets up 1st and 10 from the 16, KC calls timeout #2 with about 1:51 remaining
2. 1st and 10, run for 3 yards.  KC calls timeout #3 with about 1:44 remaining
3. 2nd and 7 from the 13, run for 4 yards.  Clock runs down to about 1 minute
4. 3rd and 3 from the 9, run for 4 yards.  Clock runs down to about 25 seconds
5. TD on 1st or 2nd or 3rd down.  Bills have 2 timeouts left so running is still viable.  Maximum time left is about 20 seconds.

There you have it - 5 plays, all on the final drive, and we're up 4 and need to prevent a TD in the last 5-20 seconds.  The runs could also be checkdowns instead.

 

 

Yeah that's about what we were discussing in the stands during the 2 minute warning.

 

Seemed like a pretty obvious strategy.   Especially with a QB who set the NFL record for rushing TD's in a season and 2 TO's.

 

But your 5 plays doesn't include the extra point conversion and 2-4 plays of pass defense.

 

Which is why I say about 10 "executable" plays.   Nothing spectacular was needed.

 

We are in alignment but the last 3-5 plays of regulation aren't a given..........as 13 seconds and HR throwback taught us in prior playoff games.