AFC futures pre offseason moves

[corta765]

With KC repping the AFC... AGAIN ugh I am doing my futures as things stand now for the conference pre moves:

 

Gold Standard:

KC. They exist unfortunately a cut ahead of everyone and will invest into their offense as their D is young and really good. Everyone is chasing.

 

Contender/Hunting:

Buffalo - Unlike last offseason where it felt very doom and gloom future wise, despite the loss the Bills have many young pieces that have emerged to feel good about. The offense will get the TLC needed and while the cap will force some tough decisions and names to leave, the track record is strong that may be luck shines on Buffalo in 24. Buffalo might be the 21st Century Brooklyn Dodgers, a team that takes it on the chin before finally getting their one big moment.

Cincy - Only team to beat KC and they seem to get up really well for them. Tee Higgins potentially leaving is tough on their offense if it happens, ownership has never been known to spend which always is a question on seriousness to win even with Burrow, and Burrows return from injury can't be assumed to be perfect out of the gate. Still this team is well coached and once Burrow is going they are a different animal.

 

Good, But More To Prove:

Baltimore- I had for years been on the Lamar train, but after yesterday he has more to prove and the criticisms seem a bit more fair. In four playoff losses he has 4 TDs 5 Ints and as a whole they have scored 42 pts on offense. Additionally as a 1 seed twice now they have collapsed big time adding more questions. No doubt this is a very complete team, but every playoff loss with Lamar is just riddled with questions about him in a way Burrow and Allen do not prompt with their performances. They will go as far as Lamar, he has more to prove.

Houston- Stroud burst on the scene like a shooting star, can he match it in 24 as the pressure becomes real and the investment in this team expands? So much to like here, no real criticism as much as do it again.

 

Potential Is There To Be A Contender... Maybe:

Miami- Tua made the season and at points looked like a true franchise QB. At other times he looked mortal and the calls of him being a system QB felt real. The roster has talent but also is aging as some of the star players brought in are not young anymore. The big decision is Tua which if Miami spends the money will hit their cap even more. Can he prove he can take it to the next level? Feels like that has been the question for 4 years.

Cleveland- If this team can get solid QB play the sky is the limit... the problem is their best QB was a 38 year old vet and the other has injuries 24/7 and a albatross of a contract. Perhaps Watson can truly get back to his former self, but it feels like this is a team that is a plucky fight but can't go much further.

LA Chargers - Bottom caved in last year between injuries and coaching, it was worst case scenario to the max. I am not a believer that Herbert is to the level some say, but he is a top 10 QB and Jim Harbaugh's track record is sensational as a coach. Step one is consistency and beating KC, but the outlook with Jim as coach looks pretty solid and KC maybe just maybe will have a true challenger from within the West.

 

Playoffs Maybe, .500 or 7-11:

NY Jets - Even if Rodgers didn't blow his tendon week 1 I am not sure he would've survived the season. The OL is atrocious to the point even their RB's are struggling. The lack of skill players after Hall and Wilson is not talked about enough and this defense can only do so much. They will do what they can and I can see them passing Miami, but this operation just feels shaky as heck

Pittsburgh - Arthur Smith as a possible new OC is just hilarious. They need a new QB as the rest of the lineup has talent... problem is they are too low in the draft to make a pick. The Steelers always seem to find a way to be around end of year, but it seems at the detriment of creating long term growth at the most important positions or being able to move in the draft for said position.

Jacksonville Jaguars - The offense never found its true potential and their feels like internal strife at this point. Once Lawrence got hurt they seem to lose their way and I do not think they were ever the same nor was Lawrence healthy. Still things change fast and with HOU passing them and IND seemingly looking good, have the Jags missed their easy window without internal division competition?

Indianapolis Colts - Football is rarely linear. Stechen did an amazing job and Richardson showed so much potential. They also had some real luck go their way in some games this year and Richardson only got to play 4 games. A 7-11 season where Richardson gets a full year to grow may be a small step back that would pay major dividends long term.

Denver Broncos - Payton got them playing at least a more competitive competent game, but truthfully what is their plan at this point? Wilson isn't returning, the talent is just being cycled in yearly at this point, and their at best probably 3rd in divisional talent. Feels like 2024 will just be more of a repeat of 2023 were they hang around as they wait for more cap space to free.

 

Draft & 24 Is About Growth

New England - It is known they have lacked a lot of blue chip talent. but I am curious how deep that goes because of BB covering the defense up in scheme. BB is a huge change and for roster mgmt an improvement, but for game day he is the ultimate X's and O'x coach. QB, improved line, and some real weapons should allow their new guy to find his way. Can Mayo just keep them fighting weekly? 

Las Vegas Raiders - Pierce as coach makes sense as his team played hard for him and Telasco did well with the Chargers. Step back to reset the deck especially with Mahomes feels like the right way to set themselves up long term.

Tennessee Titans - Vrabel is gone, Henry is gone, more vets to follow as they build with Levis who had some good moments. They need to replenish the deck on this roster and just build a culture before competing.

[Chris from Rochester]

Great write up. After watching how great Browning was for Cinci I'm not so sure they're ahead of Baltimore if they lose Higgins. I'm really curious to see how Burrow is without so many talented weapons. I also think the Chargers are going to give KC a run for their money next year with Harbaugh. If we can get a stud WR1 who can get us YAC, sky is the limit for us

[Rubes]

Love the writeups, @corta765. You have a good overall perspective on the conference.

 

[corta765]

18 hours ago, Chris from Rochester said:

Great write up. After watching how great Browning was for Cinci I'm not so sure they're ahead of Baltimore if they lose Higgins. I'm really curious to see how Burrow is without so many talented weapons. I also think the Chargers are going to give KC a run for their money next year with Harbaugh. If we can get a stud WR1 who can get us YAC, sky is the limit for us

 

Burrow has had two major injuries now and with his contract kicking in they don't have the same freedom as before and without Higgins I think their offense is different. But they have beat KC in KC, went to a SB, and when healthy they are a different animal so I think that keeps them for now ahead of BAL. Could change come offseason.

 

Chargers I think have a good outlook, but I have been burned for years saying this is their breakout so I hesitate even with Harbaugh. I don't doubt him as much as when do they take the next step. Making the playoffs would be big at this point let alone going for the division.

Should be fun regardless and thank you for the nice remarks