Gunner's 2024 Mock Draft - FINAL v3.0 NOW LIVE (p.13)

[Kirby Jackson]

6 minutes ago, CNYfan said:

I am hoping Penix will be there at 28.  Maybe get a good price for the pick.  

Based on the draft value chart the Raiders could trade 44 & 77 to get to 28. The point value is roughly the same.

[gonzo1105]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

Based on the draft value chart the Raiders could trade 44 & 77 to get to 28. The point value is roughly the same.

But are they willing to drop down to 44 and miss out on their WR. If they are open to DT as the pick at 44 than I agree but if their looking solely at WR like a lot of people think 44 might be too big of a drop 

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, RobbRiddick said:

I think worthy to dolphins is a good prediction.  As soon as I read about his speed and watched some tape I thought he had miami written all over him

 

It also has Chris Grier written all over it. To me he is the closest modern equivalent of Doug Whaley. He gets easily bamboozled by "off the bus" talent but has no clue how to build a team for a playoff run.

[TheWeatherMan]

27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He certainly could, but in reality 6 QBs in the first feels a lot. But there is still the Giants and Raiders there who I don't have taking one who could.

6 QBs is a lot, but WRs in the first round would also tie the record.  It’s looking like 30-40% of the first round will be QBs and WRs which is insane. 

[Process]

I would hate Bowers to the Jets but if he's there for them it seems like such an obvious pick

[mannc]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

After yesterday I think Penix goes before Nix.  Much higher ceiling IMO.

Penix to Seattle at 16 makes a lot of sense.

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

28. Buffalo Bills – Adonai Mitchell – Wide Receiver, Texas

I can see a scenario where the Bills move from this spot, either up or down. But if they stay here I still think it will be a receiver. Mitchell’s tape is not as impressive as his combine numbers but the physical talent is obviously there. If the consistency in his play can follow he has true WR1 potential.

 

I have warmed up to Mitchell. I'm not sure he has a single elite trait but his all around package plus his combine numbers make me think there is upside there to be a true #1. The only thing is I don't know if he'll be on our board if the reported work ethic/football character issues are true. That is one factor that the Bills have simply not been willing to look past.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Okay here is version 2.0, post free agency and with FOUR trades!!! Flame away!!

 

 

1. Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams – Quarterback, USC

It was a tentative pick in version 1.0, but trading away (maybe that should be “giving away”?) Justin Fields to the Steelers has set this in stone. Also, while I do believe the smoke that there are teams who don’t have Caleb Williams as QB1 the Bears are not one of them. He will be the pick.

 

2. Washington Commanders – Jayden Daniels – Quarterback, LSU

Teams have tried sniffing around the number 2 pick looking at trade possibilities and have been firmly knocked back – the Commanders are taking a Quarterback. I had Drake Maye here in version 1.0 but it increasingly feels like the momentum is behind Daniels to Washington.

 

3. New England Patriots – Drake Maye – Quarterback, North Carolina

The trendy move here has been to have the Patriots trading out (normally with the Vikings). But I just don’t understand why they would do that. The Patriots have Jacoby Brissett, Bailey Zappe and Nathan Rourke as the Quarterbacks on the roster. They have to take a Quarterback and I believe they’d prefer Maye to Daniels in any event.

 

4. TRADE!! Minnesota Vikings – JJ McCarthy – Quarterback, Michigan (Minnesota gets #4 – 1800 value; Arizona gets #11, #23 & #167 – 2034 value)

Which means the draft starts here. Let me be clear I think #4 is too early for JJ McCarthy but it is the law of supply and demand. He seems to be the consensus 4th QB off the board and there as many as four teams potentially in the mix so if you don’t come up to take him here one of the others will. I suspect Minnesota are the most desperate and they have those two first rounders to dangle but keep an eye on the Giants as a dark horse for this trade because they have less distance to go to this pick and it would mean Arizona still gets one of the top two receivers at #6.

  

5. Los Angeles Chargers – Marvin Harrison Jnr, Wide Receiver, Ohio State

When Marvin Harrison Snr was an NFL rookie his Quarterback was Jim Harbaugh. In a scenario where the first four guys off the board are Quarterbacks the NFL will go full circle and in Marvin Harrison Jnr’s rookie season in the NFL his Head Coach will be Jim Harbaugh.

 

6. New York Giants – Malik Nabers – Wide Receiver, LSU

The Giants have to add playmakers for their passing game whoever the Quarterback is. They have spent day two picks on Wan’Dale Robinson and Jalin Hyatt the last two years but so far the contributions have been modest. They need a legit #1 threat. Nabers can be used the way Brian Daboll used Stefon Diggs in Buffalo.

 

7. Tennessee Titans – Joe Alt – Offensive Tackle, Notre Dame

As I said in version 1.0 the Titans tried to get by with Andre Dillard at left tackle in 2023 and it was a predictable car crash.  This season is all about evaluating Will Levis for new Head Coach Brian Callahan and that starts with giving him protection. Callahan Snr is coaching the offensive line and will love working with Alt who is a mean, nasty plug and play left tackle.

 

8. TRADE!! Arizona Cardinals – Rome Odunze – Wide Receiver, Washington (Arizona gets #8 – 1400 value; Atlanta gets #11, #90 & #186 – 1407 value)

We saw the Cardinals do this last year, when they traded back from #3 to #12 and then up again from #12 to #6. I think they want to sell #4 but also want to still snag one of the top 3 receivers which means getting ahead of the Bears and Jets. Odunze is an immediate upgrade for them.

 

9. Chicago Bears – Dallas Turner – EDGE, Alabama

The Bears traded for Montez Sweat mid-season and it paid off - his 6 sacks in 9 games led the team. However, the fact that someone who only joined at the trade deadline led the team in sacks is a concern in itself. Turner had 10 sacks for the Crimson Tide last year and adds some juice to that unit.

 

10. New York Jets – Brock Bowers – Tight End, Georgia

I had Bowers here in version 1.0 because the top two tackles were off the board. Since then the Jets have attacked their offensive line in free agency leaving them free to take Bowers here as an offensive match up weapon for Aaron Rodgers.

 

11. (From Minnesota via ARZ) Atlanta Falcons – Jared Verse – EDGE, Florida State

Having addressed Quarterback with Kirk Cousins the Falcons are the favourite to win the NFC South. However, they still have a need for additional pass rusher help. 37-year-old Calais Campbell led the team with 6.5 sacks in 2023, he is a free agent and hasn’t been replaced.

 

12. Denver Broncos – Bo Nix – Quarterback, Oregon

The Broncos are in a horrible spot. They have to get a QB (Jarret Stidham and Ben DiNucci are all that’s on the roster). They don’t have the capital to compete with other teams who might trade up; they don’t have a second rounder and can’t wait and hope to get one in round three and they can’t even trade back to maximise value because the Raiders, another Quarterback needy team, are right behind them at #13. I feel like they have to pick Best Quarterback Available at #12 and the consensus is that will be Bo Nix.

 

13. Las Vegas Raiders – Terrion Arnold – Cornerback, Alabama

The Raiders roster is pretty bad. They could go almost any direction at this spot and there isn’t a single pick here that would surprised me. It could come down to interior defensive line or corner and I think that ultimately their need in the secondary is even greater.

 

14. New Orleans Saints – Olu Fashanu – Offensive Tackle, Penn State

The noises from inside the building sound like the Saints are done with 2022 first round pick Trevor Penning and now we learn that right tackle Ryan Ramczyk’s could miss the season with a degenerative knee condition. Fashanu would be an immediate starter at left tackle.

 

15. Indianapolis Colts – Quinyon Mitchell – Cornerback, Toledo

The Colts have a solid roster and have been quiet in free agency. But one obvious hole is at corner where return specialist Dallis Flowers, with five career starts to his name, is top of the depth chart opposite second-year man JuJu Brents. Mitchell is trending towards being CB1 and is a great scheme fit.

 

16. Seattle Seahawks – Troy Fautanu – Offensive Tackle, Washington

I list Fautanu as a tackle but it is likely the Seahwaks would see him at guard where the interior offensive line needs significant work. This is becoming a popular mock choice not least because Fautanu’s college Offensive Coordinator, Ryan Grubb, now occupies the same position in Seattle.

 

17. Jacksonville Jaguars – Brian Thomas Jnr – Wide Receiver, LSU

The Jags added Devin Duvernay and Gabe Davis to Christian Kirk in their receiver room during free agency, but Calvin Ridley moved on. If Quinyon Mitchell or Arnold were here I might have gone corner but, in their absence, a big, fast, athletic freak of a receiver feels on brand for GM Trent Baalke.

 

18. Cincinnati Bengals – JC Latham – Offensive Tackle, Alabama

Corner and receiver are possibilities (especially if they were to trade away Tee Higgins) but I still think the achilles heel of this team is their offensive line, especially with an injury prone Quarterback. They need a right tackle and they like bigger guys so Lathan fits the bill.

 

19. TRADE!! Dallas Cowboys – Amarius Mims – Offensive Tackle, Georgia (Dallas gets #19 & #196 – 888 value; Los Angeles gets #24 & #87 – 895 value)

If this was a no-trade draft then Amarius Mims to the Steelers at #20 would be as close to a lock as it gets. They appear to have really focussed in on him for some time. However, another team that appear to love his skillset is the Cowboys and they showed when drafting Tyler Smith out of Tulsa two years ago that they are willing to take a risk on raw talent up front. Mims either starts in place of the departed Tyron Smith at left tackle and lets Tyler stay at guard or is an immediate upgrade on the right side.

 

20. Pittsburgh Steelers – Taliese Fuaga – Offensive Tackle, Oregon State

Pittsburgh drafted Broderick Jones last year and started him at right tackle as a rookie but they have one of the worst starting left tackle in the NFL. The plan is surely to switch Jones to the left in 2024 which would create a hole at right tackle that Fuaga would fill.

 

21. Miami Dolphins – Xavier Worthy – Wide Receiver, Texas

This is my wildcard. We know Mike McDonald loves speed on offense and while this feels like a luxury pick given their defensive needs and the fact they have Hill and Waddle already, good luck to the defensive coordinator trying to cover all three of them.

 

22. Philadelphia Eagles – Cooper DeJean – Cornerback, Iowa

The Eagles secondary is a series of question marks. Veterans Darius Slay and James Bradberry struggled in 2023, Kelee Ringo made little impression as a rookie and their safeties were bad. They have brought back CJ Gardner-Johnson from Detroit but DeJean is a versatile playmaker who could become a mainstay on the back end.

 

23. (From Cleveland via HOU and MIN) Arizona Cardinals – Jackson Powers-Johnson – Center, Oregon

The Cardinals would have three firsts in this scenario which might give them the freedom to invest in the center position where they have long since had a hole. Powers-Johnson had an impressive week at the Senior Bowl and vaulted himself right into day 1 contention.

 

24. (From Dallas) Los Angeles Rams – Byron Murphy II – Defensive Tackle, Texas

The Rams didn’t just lose a defensive tackle when Aaron Donald retired, they lost probably the greatest player in franchise history. While it is unfair to ask any rookie to come in and replace that level of impact Murphy is a good penetrative defensive tackle who will replace some of the pass rush juice they have lost.

 

25. TRADE!! Kansas City Chiefs – Jordan Morgan – Offensive Tackle, Arizona (Kansas City gets #25 – 720 value; Green Bay gets #32 & #95 – 710 value)

The Chiefs come up the board, but it is not for a wide receiver. They have tried the vet route to fix the left tackle spot, trading for Orlando Brown and signing a Superbowl winner in Donovan Smith. It might be time to draft a long term answer and Morgan is an out and out left tackle who excels as a pass blocker. He could lock down Mahomes’ blindside for a decade.

 

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Laiatu Latu – EDGE, UCLA

Latu is my #1 edge rusher in the class but the health concerns are likely to push him down the board. I have heard the Packers (who originally have the pick before this one) and the Buccs linked to him frequently so I feel like this is the range he comes off the board.  The Buccs lost Shaq Barrett in free agency so have a need.

 

27. Arizona Cardinals – Chop Robinson – EDGE, Penn State

This is a pick I’m leaving unchanged from version 1.0. In a world where the Cardinals have just the two first rounders unlike the three they end up with in this mock it is clear to me that they have to get a wide receiver and a pass rusher. Chop is raw, but his ceiling is high.

 

28. Buffalo Bills – Adonai Mitchell – Wide Receiver, Texas

I can see a scenario where the Bills move from this spot, either up or down. But if they stay here I still think it will be a receiver. Mitchell’s tape is not as impressive as his combine numbers but the physical talent is obviously there. If the consistency in his play can follow he has true WR1 potential.

 

29. Detroit Lions – Jer’Zhan Newton – Defensive Tackle, Illinois

This would be the steal of round one. I have a top 10 grade on Newton but possibly because he didn’t work out at the combine with injury or because he is from unfashionable Illinois he hasn’t had the buzz his talent deserves. The Lions have Alim McNeill and DJ Reader at defensive tackle, but they are both really 1 techs. Here is the interior penetrating 3 tech they require.

 

30. Baltimore Ravens – Graham Barton – Guard, Duke

The Ravens lost both starting guards in free agency – Zeitler to the Lions and Simpson to the Jets. They did draft Andrew Vorhees last year in round seven despite his ACL tear at the combine and he might step into one spot. Barton can arguably play all five spots on the line but would start at guard.

 

31. San Francisco 49ers – Tyler Guyton – Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma

I had Mims here in version 1.0 but this time it is Guyton who slides to San Francisco. The 49ers lost right tackle Mike McGlinchey in free agency last year and Guyton would presumably start there as a rookie but he might even be a long term in-house replacement for Trent Williams.

 

32. (From Kansas City) Green Bay Packers – Nate Wiggins – Cornerback, Clemson

Green Bay have only spent one of their last thirteen first round picks on offense and that was when they drafted Jordan Love. No team has spent more recent first round capital on defensive backs, with five in the last decade. They have a need there again with the Jaire Alexander situation looking dicey and a hole opposite him.

OFC KC trades ahead of us

 

OFC

 

 

[QB Bills]

For someone who watches zero college football, these kinds of write-ups are invaluable. Thanks OP. This was a great read.

[Turbo44]

1 hour ago, nosejob said:

If I'm BB, I'M trading a 4th to TB and grabbing Latu.  If it weren't for the injury history...prior to 2 years of being the best DE in the country, he'd be a top 10 pick.

There's no DE even in the same ballpark. Diggs may have a pro bowl year and be back in 25. Miller won't. Latu would be a steal.

 

I could live with McConkey and Walker. Combining Latu with Groot and A.J while learning from Von...yum.

I agree - Edge is our biggest need and I would definitely try to trade up to TB. Alternatively, what would it cost to trade up to JAX (17) to grab Thomas? Would #30, a 4th and the 2025  2nd be in the ballpark?

[gonzo1105]

1 minute ago, Turbo44 said:

I agree - Edge is our biggest need and I would definitely try to trade up to TB. Alternatively, what would it cost to trade up to JAX (17) to grab Thomas? Would #30, a 4th and the 2025  2nd be in the ballpark?

Prob needs to be a 2025 first 

[Westside]

2 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Worthy going to Miami is    Not. Nice. 

 

 

 

 

 

Would much rather see DT in Round 4-5   (assuming the Longhorns are off the board at 28 and 60) 

 

Beane has signed 3 DT's if you include DaQuan.   

 

IMO he wanted to feel like the position is no longer a desperate need.  

But it’s still a desperate need. We have no long term depth at DT. The two older players they signed are over thirty. So is DaQwan . 

[GunnerBill]

35 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

6 QBs is a lot, but WRs in the first round would also tie the record.  It’s looking like 30-40% of the first round will be QBs and WRs which is insane. 

 

See I think OT is where the first round run will be more than QB and WR.

[gonzo1105]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

See I think OT is where the first round run will be more than QB and WR.

I agree that OT and OL in general is going to have a lot of humans drafted early. Look at how annual deals are going up because there are so few quality lineman in the league 

[mannc]

26 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Based on the draft value chart the Raiders could trade 44 & 77 to get to 28. The point value is roughly the same.

That seems like a long way to drop for a mid-third.

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, mannc said:

That seems like a long way to drop for a mid-third.

The value actually favors the Bills by 5 points. I’m not saying that I would or wouldn’t do it but according to the chart, the Bills would “win” that trade.

Edited March 29 by Kirby Jackson

[mrags]

23 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

I agree - Edge is our biggest need and I would definitely try to trade up to TB. Alternatively, what would it cost to trade up to JAX (17) to grab Thomas? Would #30, a 4th and the 2025  2nd be in the ballpark?

 

22 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

Prob needs to be a 2025 first 

They had Chris Trapasso on WGR yesterday. He said #28 and next years 2nd gets you right around the 15-18 range.

 

also said #28 and next years 1st gets you right around 10-12 range. 
 

don’t shoot the messenger. Just going by what he said. 

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The value actually favors the Bills by 5 points. I’m not saying that I would or wouldn’t do it but according to the chart, the Bills would “win” that trade.

Could probably end up with Franklin and Sweat after a few smaller trades to move back up. Could probably have 44, 60, and 77 and trade that 77 along with something later (I don’t know the grades/chart) to move up. Getting 3 picks in the top 60. That would be huge. 
 

if Mitchell is there at 28 I say take him because you don’t know what’s going to happen. But if you told me now Mitchell and xx as it stands, or I could have Sweat, Franklin, and xx. I’d definitely take the Sweat and Franklin deal. 

[BillsFan130]

1 hour ago, CNYfan said:

I am hoping Penix will be there at 28.  Maybe get a good price for the pick.  

I see where you are coming from, but I am hoping for the opposite.

 

I hope 6 QBs go before the bills pick so there is better value at other positions.

 

Realistically as well, I think it is extremely unlikely BB will trade down in the 1st

 

History has shown he will move up if anything

[gonzo1105]

4 minutes ago, mrags said:

 

They had Chris Trapasso on WGR yesterday. He said #28 and next years 2nd gets you right around the 15-18 range.

 

also said #28 and next years 1st gets you right around 10-12 range. 
 

don’t shoot the messenger. Just going by what he said. 

Could probably end up with Franklin and Sweat after a few smaller trades to move back up. Could probably have 44, 60, and 77 and trade that 77 along with something later (I don’t know the grades/chart) to move up. Getting 3 picks in the top 60. That would be huge. 
 

if Mitchell is there at 28 I say take him because you don’t know what’s going to happen. But if you told me now Mitchell and xx as it stands, or I could have Sweat, Franklin, and xx. I’d definitely take the Sweat and Franklin deal. 

All you have to do is look at a draft value chart to know that’s wrong unless a team is desperate. 
 

Jacksonvilles pick is worth 950 points 

 

Bills pick worth 660 for a difference of 290 points. If the Bills gave up 60 this year then yes of would make sense. To give up a 2025 2nd rounder is the equivalent of a 2024 3rd rounder which will be about 130 points for the Bills leave them about 160 short

[mrags]

2 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

All you have to do is look at a draft value chart to know that’s wrong unless a team is desperate. 
 

Jacksonvilles pick is worth 950 points 

 

Bills pick worth 660 for a difference of 290 points. If the Bills gave up 60 this year then yes of would make sense. To give up a 2025 2nd rounder is the equivalent of a 2024 3rd rounder which will be about 130 points for the Bills leave them about 160 short

I’m just going by Chris Trapasso who uses a well known chart and was on the show yesterday and confirmed based on his charts that’s where they lined up. Again. Don’t shoot the messenger, I’m just relaying what he said on air, as a guest of Tasker yesterday. They spoke about these 2 trades for about 10 minutes 

Just now, mrags said:

I’m just going by Chris Trapasso who uses a well known chart and was on the show yesterday and confirmed based on his charts that’s where they lined up. Again. Don’t shoot the messenger, I’m just relaying what he said on air, as a guest of Tasker yesterday. They spoke about these 2 trades for about 10 minutes 

There might have been a 5th rounder thrown in there. Regardless, it was generally doable