Gunner's 2024 Mock Draft - FINAL v3.0 NOW LIVE (p.13)

[FireChans]

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

While that is true, he is about to turn 24, that is still comfortably a two contract guy at QB.... he could play until 33. But you draft a 21 or 22 year old you might get three full contracts.

 

I do think less of an issue at QB than at say receiver, or corner though. 

I think this year is going to be a total referendum on how we discuss QB development in college football.

 

If Bo Nix, who was horrific at Auburn, ends up being an NFL caliber QB after playing CFB for 6 years, it will go a long way to support longer development for young QB’s 

[NeverOutNick]

25 minutes ago, FireChans said:

You’re forgetting that Bo Nix is going to be collecting social security pretty soon. That harms his draft status.

 

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

While that is true, he is about to turn 24, that is still comfortably a two contract guy at QB.... he could play until 33. But you draft a 21 or 22 year old you might get three full contracts.

 

I do think less of an issue at QB than at say receiver, or corner though. 

 

exactly! If he’s a franchise quarterback, and I believe he is, you’re getting more than 10 years production out of him and unlike some of the other quarterbacks in this class you’re getting a very mature plug-and play guy from day one. I hope he doesn’t end up in the AFC

[DCOrange]

35 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

While that is true, he is about to turn 24, that is still comfortably a two contract guy at QB.... he could play until 33. But you draft a 21 or 22 year old you might get three full contracts.

 

I do think less of an issue at QB than at say receiver, or corner though. 

Yeah, I don't think the age is a concern from a contract perspective. It's more about how much room to grow Nix (and Penix for that matter) have after 6 years in college. I think Nix is relatively pro-ready, though probably in the mold of a game manager/Shanahan type of QB but I'm fairly skeptical he'll improve in the areas that he needs to in order to become an upper echelon player. Likewise with Penix, whose issues are a bit bigger IMO. I ultimately landed on a 3rd round grade for both of them, but if I had to take one, it would definitely be Nix.

Edited January 30 by DCOrange

[GASabresIUFan]

CBS has a mock up today with the Bills taking an OT in the 1st.  In the comment the author doesn’t talk the player or why OT is a need, but talks instead about the Bills losing to KC.  If this what AI is coming to, then maybe we need to take the I out of AI. 
 

Bulger has us with a WR (Coleman) and S (Kinchens) in his two round Mock.

 

The Athletic’s Lee has us with a DT (Newton), which is also a need.  
 

Mel Kiper has the Bills taking Mitchell.

 

 

Edited January 30 by GASabresIUFan

[NeverOutNick]

10 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Yeah, I don't think the age is a concern from a contract perspective. It's more about how much room to grow Nix (and Penix for that matter) have after 6 years in college. I think Nix is relatively pro-ready, though probably in the mold of a game manager/Shanahan type of QB but I'm fairly skeptical he'll improve in the areas that he needs to in order to become an upper echelon player. Likewise with Penix, whose issues are a bit bigger IMO. I ultimately landed on a 3rd round grade for both of them, but if I had to take one, it would definitely be Nix.

You haven’t watched Nix if you’re calling him a game manager. 

[DCOrange]

10 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

You haven’t watched Nix if you’re calling him a game manager. 

I mean more for his pro prospects than his college play, but he was mostly a first-read, screen pass/RPO type of QB at Oregon. Definitely seemed like he did a little more playmaking this season but he's still doing more basic stuff than most of the class IMO. He does it very, very well though. I currently have him as my #4 QB in the class after studying the projected top 6 guys.

Edited January 30 by DCOrange

[GunnerBill]

30 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Yeah, I don't think the age is a concern from a contract perspective. It's more about how much room to grow Nix (and Penix for that matter) have after 6 years in college. I think Nix is relatively pro-ready, though probably in the mold of a game manager/Shanahan type of QB but I'm fairly skeptical he'll improve in the areas that he needs to in order to become an upper echelon player. Likewise with Penix, whose issues are a bit bigger IMO. I ultimately landed on a 3rd round grade for both of them, but if I had to take one, it would definitely be Nix.

 

Yea think that's fair. I haven't really started on evaluating the QBs so far and to be honest didn't see much of any of them in the season (other than Penix and Caleb) so I don't have any strong views on the relative merits of them yet. 

[pennstate10]

I like your top 10, but I’m pretty sure Penix ends up pushing one of those guys out. There’s always at least one QB who surprises and gets picked top 10. 
 

I like the Bills picks, provided Bullick runs a 4.5 or better. I’m not sure he’s got adequate straight line speed. 
 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

CBS has a mock up today with the Bills taking an OT in the 1st.  In the comment the author doesn’t talk the player or why OT is a need, but talks instead about the Bills losing to KC.  If this what AI is coming to, then maybe we need to take the I out of AI. 
 

Bulger has us with a WR (Coleman) and S (Kinchens) in his two round Mock.

 

The Athletic’s Lee has us with a DT (Newton), which is also a need.  
 

Mel Kiper has the Bills taking Mitchell.

 

 

 

DT is a need but Newton is strictly a 3T. That means you are taking Ed Oliver off the field to get Newton on it. I'm not sure that is a route to getting better. I like the player, like him quite a lot, but his skillset is so similar to Ed's that I'm not sure even in a nascar type package you'd put them both on the field. 

[GASabresIUFan]

20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

DT is a need but Newton is strictly a 3T. That means you are taking Ed Oliver off the field to get Newton on it. I'm not sure that is a route to getting better. I like the player, like him quite a lot, but his skillset is so similar to Ed's that I'm not sure even in a nascar type package you'd put them both on the field. 

I'm not sure Newton will even be there when we draft.  If the Bills take someone like him, they would have to believe he could step into DaQuan Jones' spot, even if he didn't play there is college.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I'm not sure Newton will even be there when we draft.  If the Bills take someone like him, they would have to believe he could step into DaQuan Jones' spot, even if he didn't play there is college.  

 

 

I don't think he will either. And he can't play the DaQuan Jones role. I'm certain of it. 

[KOKBILLS]

I like it!

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Well done! I have no idea what you do or did for a living but I’m glued to these posts every year. Your research and writing style are both top notch! 
 

I’m not going to comment on the specific picks or order but I’d love your comments on the overall trends and tendencies in this year’s draft class. For example there are no RBs or LBs in the first round. Is that because of the college class or do you just think the League has evolved away from them? 
 

PS: Even though I said I wouldn’t comment, I did my graduate work at USC so watch them pretty consistently. Their defense has been beyond TERRIBLE for the last few years so if Beane can find an actual NFL starter amongst those totally inept losers he gets my vote as Genius of the Decade! 

 

Ha. I work for the Government and I confess the second round of this mock may have been partly drafted on Government time yesterday..... writing is kinda my stock in trade though. I was a journalist and am now a policy maker. Words are the tools of my trade. 

 

On the overall trends... it is a while since I have had a heavily offense slanted top 100. I haven't got that far yet this year but my gut instinct is my top 100 grades will be offense heavy in 2024. There could legit by 20-25 receivers in that top 100 (average is around 15) and I think it is a decent OL class too - especially at tackle. When you add then there might be up to six Quarterbacks you'd consider in the top 100 and it is a draft lacking in true defensive difference makers I think it will probably be looked back on as an offensive draft. I can see a scenario where the entire top 10 ends up being offense. Minnesota at #11 is the first team where I think "that pick will be defense."

 

On RBs and LBs.... the league definitely values those positions less but this is just not a great class for either, particularly at the top. Not sure either position will end up with a player in my top 50 grades. Both classes even out a bit after that I think but I'm not deep enough into my work on the guys lower down the draft to know how many guys at those spots could go later and still end up starting in the NFL. 

 

 

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Zach Frazier - C, West Virginia (Dane has #51 to the Steelers) - I had Pittsburgh going linebacker and I do think that is a bigger need. But they could upgrade Mason Cole at center. Frazier was a guy I was trying to get into round 2 but he is strictly a gap scheme player and so many places as soon as you look at oline they are running a Shanahan type scheme and you are looking for zone blockers. I do think he goes round 2 though, so I like this pick from Dane (kinda wish I'd thought of it!)

 

 

Okay I like this fit less now. Arthur Smith is also mainly a zone blocking offensive coordinator. The Steelers just hired him. 

[djp14150]

On 1/29/2024 at 12:09 PM, DCOrange said:

I doubt Legette will be my preferred choice (or even one that I'd be happy with in general), but I wouldn't be surprised if he's one of the guys we consider. Having said that, Dane Brugler reported earlier this morning that most teams have a 3rd round grade on Legette, and that could potentially fall further after he measured 2-3 inches shorter than expected. He does admittedly have the physical traits to potentially really impress people, but I think there's a lot of physical traits types in this class and I'd probably rather opt for one of the younger ones if we go that route.

 

A few thoughts on the QBs as that's really the only position I've really scouted thus far:

• I'm very early in my Penix review but I really liked what I've seen thus far. We'll see if that continues.
• Along the same wavelengths as the Brugler report on Legette, he also discussed Penix vs. Bo Nix and basically said Penix is currently viewed as a late 2nd or 3rd round prospect. He also added that he wouldn't be surprised if Michael Pratt ultimately jumps over Penix. Nix is viewed as a borderline 1st and could potentially go as high as top 10 if he has a strong Senior Bowl week.
• I ended up with a 4th round grade on Jayden Daniels (though I may watch some more film to try to understand what other people are seeing that I'm not), so needless to say, I'd be thrilled if the Patriots take him in the top 3.
• I have JJ as my #3 QB at the moment but only a 2nd round grade on him. I know most of the draft media thinks he'll be a 1st rounder, potentially to Seattle.

 

Lastly, I think I'd lean towards Odunze over Nabers at the moment, but that's really just based off of some stuff I noticed while watching their QBs on All 22 as well as some of the metrics that I've posted in the WR thread.

Who had him as a third round grade?   I don’t know his numbers in terms of speed/ strength.
 

Outside of issues of system fit like team already has a big WR and wants more of a slot one.  I think he fits ehst buffalo is looking for.

 

if he seems to have dropped on boards, buffalo might be inclined to trade down and still pick him.

[Mat68]

22 hours ago, noacls said:

6'3" 190 is an undersized safety?  Put him in NFL S&C program and nfl nutrition,  this guy will be 210 in a year

Seems like a project not an immediate starter. I have faith in McBeane when it comes to dbs so I would get behind it if they ultimately went that way.  From my limited information he doesn't sound like their type of guy early. 

[GunnerBill]

17 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Seems like a project not an immediate starter. I have faith in McBeane when it comes to dbs so I would get behind it if they ultimately went that way.  From my limited information he doesn't sound like their type of guy early. 

 

I think that is fair but then nor did Kaiir Elam. It was the best combination of position of need and value on the board. I can take the argument that Bullard from Georgia might be more naturally their type (i.e. probably more akin to Hyde) it was a bit of a toin coss of the two. But they do tend to like "big" which was my thinking on Bullock. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 1/29/2024 at 9:15 AM, Nephilim17 said:

I'm not a college fan but after some cursory reading/viewing on various prospects be very pleased with Legette. The dude is in the 220's and would be a beast to bring down and could offer elite speed. That means he can both separate and win in 50/50 battles. That's worth the 23 age factor. He should have about 8 prime years which coincides with Josh's prime years. 

I'd be really afraid of drafting a speed guy who is 180 pounds soaking wet.

Let's get a WR who is a beast and who can outrun and outmuscle anyone's CB or safety. 

 

Maybe he can be a bit like Deebo? Both were SC Gamecocks. Deebo draft profile 5'11" 214 lbs. Legette before the combine 6'3" 227. But if reports are true that he is a couple inches shorter then he is closer to Deebo's frame and build. 

[DCOrange]

4 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Maybe he can be a bit like Deebo? Both were SC Gamecocks. Deebo draft profile 5'11" 214 lbs. Legette before the combine 6'3" 227. But if reports are true that he is a couple inches shorter then he is closer to Deebo's frame and build. 

He just doesn't really move like Deebo at all. If we're looking for a Deebo type in this draft, it would probably be Malachi Corley from Western Kentucky, who is also at the Senior Bowl.

 

[FireChans]

12 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Maybe he can be a bit like Deebo? Both were SC Gamecocks. Deebo draft profile 5'11" 214 lbs. Legette before the combine 6'3" 227. But if reports are true that he is a couple inches shorter then he is closer to Deebo's frame and build. 

Deebo is the biggest 5’11 214 guy I have ever seen. 

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

He just doesn't really move like Deebo at all. If we're looking for a Deebo type in this draft, it would probably be Malachi Corley from Western Kentucky, who is also at the Senior Bowl.

 

Agree he doesn't move like Deebo. He is much more of a long strider (I think that is why he looks taller than he is - he has long limbs).