Gunner's 2024 Mock Draft - FINAL v3.0 NOW LIVE (p.13)

[Chaos]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Yea Mitchell is good. And he has arguably the best hands in the class.

After watching Kincaid make catches look fairly routine, that others on the Bills routinely don't catch, I have become a huge believer that good hands is at the top of the list for what the Bills need.  Maybe just fan frustration.  But if he lived up to the "best hands in class" billing, I could live with other limitations. 

[GASabresIUFan]

3 minutes ago, Chaos said:

After watching Kincaid make catches look fairly routine, that others on the Bills routinely don't catch, I have become a huge believer that good hands is at the top of the list for what the Bills need.  Maybe just fan frustration.  But if he lived up to the "best hands in class" billing, I could live with other limitations. 

He also has size, decent speed, runs quality routes, and has a habit of getting open.  There are faster players, but his size and hands are huge reasons to look at him early in the draft.  

 

I think he has also suffered from being in offenses that spread the ball.  As a freshman, UGA had Bowers, McConkey, Jermaine Burton, Darnell Washington, George Pickens, and Rosemy-Jacksaint, and Mitchell was 3rd in catches (29) and 4th in yards.  RB James Cook also grabbed 27 balls that year.  

 

From that group alone 3 players have already been drafted in the top 100. - Washington (3rd rd 2023), Pickens (2nd rd in 2022), and Cook (2nd rd 2022).  Bowers is a top 10 pick this year.  Mitchell will probably go late 1st.  Burton is likely a 2nd rd pick.  McConkey should go somewhere between 50 and 100 and I expect someone to take Jacksaint late (and get a steal in the process).   That's one heck of a collection of talent, with Mitchell, McConkey, Bowers, and Jacksaint all freshmen and Burton a sophomore.

[Dan in Owego]

Keon Coleman for some reason keeps me coming back, just an incredible athlete great hands. Separation concerns but was it a component of the scheme? Could totally see Allen and this offense be an elite fit for him.

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

He also has size, decent speed, runs quality routes, and has a habit of getting open.  There are faster players, but his size and hands are huge reasons to look at him early in the draft.  

 

I think he has also suffered from being in offenses that spread the ball.  As a freshman, UGA had Bowers, McConkey, Jermaine Burton, Darnell Washington, George Pickens, and Rosemy-Jacksaint, and Mitchell was 3rd in catches (29) and 4th in yards.  RB James Cook also grabbed 27 balls that year.  

 

From that group alone 3 players have already been drafted in the top 100. - Washington (3rd rd 2023), Pickens (2nd rd in 2022), and Cook (2nd rd 2022).  Bowers is a top 10 pick this year.  Mitchell will probably go late 1st.  Burton is likely a 2nd rd pick.  McConkey should go somewhere between 50 and 100 and I expect someone to take Jacksaint late (and get a steal in the process).   That's one heck of a collection of talent, with Mitchell, McConkey, Bowers, and Jacksaint all freshmen and Burton a sophomore.

I'd love to get Mitchell in the first and McConkey on day 2, but I think McConkey will go before 60.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Dan in Owego said:

Keon Coleman for some reason keeps me coming back, just an incredible athlete great hands. Separation concerns but was it a component of the scheme? Could totally see Allen and this offense be an elite fit for him.

I don't know why he's falling so much. He was elite at FSU earlier in the season.

 

I have zero interest in McConkey. I don't think he'll be a bust, but he's the exact kind of solid but not good enough WR that we don't need any more of.

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, Dan in Owego said:

Keon Coleman for some reason keeps me coming back, just an incredible athlete great hands. Separation concerns but was it a component of the scheme? Could totally see Allen and this offense be an elite fit for him.

 

I will say I definitely want the Bills targeting WRs with elite physical traits as long as we're in the Josh Allen era. His whole career he's been playing with smurfs with a low catch radius. An elite physical QB throwing to an elite physical WR just fits better.

 

As much as I normally hate the idea of contested catch specialists, if the Bills think Allen can launch the ball downfield to Coleman in 1v1 coverage and he'll come down with it more often than not, I'm good with that. Coleman is also a bully with the ball in his hands and that is not a skill set we've ever had in the Allen era. It might be a case where his skill set is too limited for 90% of offenses, but for ours it's perfect. At least that's how I'll talk myself into liking the pick if we draft him.

 

The funny thing about this whole discussion over which of the WRs we should draft is that it might not even matter. Any WR we take gets the benefit of immediately being in an offense with Josh Allen. Unless they're a total bust, it's almost impossible for them to fail. Kincaid was the first pass catcher we've drafted on day one or two in the Allen era and he immediately broke a couple franchise records... It's not complicated. Just make an actual effort to put great pass catching talent on the field with Josh Allen, and prosper.

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

I will give you the bolded... Don't think hes off the board here.. huge assumption, There are multiple draft profiles that have him going late first round....  Bullard as more of what we need.  we have plenty of underneath players. Diggs, Shakir, Kincaid. I am for sticking to one player that does one thing REALLY WELL  rather than a player that does a bunch of things good. We need a Really good deep threat, that has moves in his rout running game. this guy is that answer. 

 

Well he was off the board HERE. Could he still be there for real? Sure. But here in this mock he was already gone. 

4 hours ago, Chaos said:

After watching Kincaid make catches look fairly routine, that others on the Bills routinely don't catch, I have become a huge believer that good hands is at the top of the list for what the Bills need.  Maybe just fan frustration.  But if he lived up to the "best hands in class" billing, I could live with other limitations. 

 

Understood. Personally I think explosiveness is the #1 need, but hands is #2. 

[billsfan89]

Don't hate it, like the idea of grabbing a WR in round one, not sure on the specific prospect but the position is a good fit. Would rather address the safety position in free agency and maybe draft one around round 4 so to speak. Would rather get younger on the defensive line and take one in round 2. But not a bad first draft.

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

Don't hate it, like the idea of grabbing a WR in round one, not sure on the specific prospect but the position is a good fit. Would rather address the safety position in free agency and maybe draft one around round 4 so to speak. Would rather get younger on the defensive line and take one in round 2. But not a bad first draft.

 

So would I... but really the advantage in mock drafts is they give you a chance to work through scenarios. I did not go into this expecting to pick a safety for the Bills in round 2. I expected to be picking a defensive lineman. But as the round unfolded the run on DL had happened ahead of the Bills. I never try and "save" a player for the Bills I try and treat every team seriously and look at realistic options for what they might do. What ended up happening was the defensive line talent was hollowed out and when I looked at where the next cluster of players was on the board there were 2 or 3 safeties there among the best remaining. Maybe in the real world the Bills would trade back, I don't know, but here it felt like I'd have been forcing it to take a DL and a safety was the logical pick.

Edited January 30 by GunnerBill

[machine gun kelly]

18 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

I always get jealous seeing guys go to other teams, but ending up with Legette and Bullock would be a decent take. Especially with all the competition for WRs.

Agreed and GB I always look forward to your off season mock drafts.  Thanks for the time you put into it.

[Not at the table Karlos]

14 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Other than age and one year of production, two things that I've seen in scouting reports:

 

1) Inability to win off the line against press coverage

 

2) Inability to separate at the top of his route against man coverage

 

In general he seems to lack nuance in his release package and route running. More just a pure straight line guy. Those guys tend to fail at the NFL level unless they are total alphas like DK Metcalf.

 

So I think NFL scouts see a raw physical package but already 23 years old and only one year of college production... Which raises the question, does he still have upside to develop into a true WR1/WR2, or will he permanently be stuck in a very specific rotational role?

 

Your own scouting of him may differ, but those are the concerns I've seen.

 

I think Dane Brugler may be underselling him when he lists him as a 3rd round prospect. WRs have never been more important than they are right now so I'd be surprised if he drops even into the bottom half of the 2nd round. Somebody will bet on those traits.

This drove me nuts when watching him. He didn’t separate from the defender until he caught the ball. Then he’d pull away. Seems to take a while to get to full speed.  

[NeverOutNick]

I’ll dig into this more later. I know you do your homework so I applaud that but my biggest criticism is Bo Nix. There is NO WAY he falls all the way to 42. I could make a case for him going in the top 3. He is the most nfl ready QB in this class and has gotten better every year of his college career. He reminds me of Joe Burrow just not yet as elite as Joe as a decision maker (yet…hopefully he can get there because he’s taken huge strides with it since Auburn). He’s got everything you want in a franchise QB and teams know this. Watch Bo’s name keep skyrocketing as media members start hearing and seeing what scouts already know. 

Edited January 30 by NeverOutNick

[aristocrat]

Not down with the one year production guy. Rather go with jalynn Polk and maybe reach a bit with him at 28

[NeverOutNick]

1 minute ago, aristocrat said:

Not down with the one year production guy. Rather go with jalynn Polk and maybe reach a bit with him at 28

I do like polk and I haven’t done a huge dive in WRs yet but my early gut call is Franklin will be there and he will be the pick and I’ll be happy

[GunnerBill]

@DCOrange mentioned Dane Brugler's initial 2 rounder I think earlier in this thread or possibly elsewhere. Last night I did a count up for comparison purposes. We are 11 players different out of the 64 we have as potential 1st and 2nd rounders at this stage. I can't answer for what Dane thinks of the guys I have and he doesn't but thought it might be interesting to look at the guys he has that I don't. Will say before I do that I have huge respect for Dane he is one of the best pro draft guys out there, but here goes:

 

Jaden Hicks - S, Washington State (Dane has at #41 to the Packers) - We both have safeties at this spot. Hicks is a guy I need to do more on I haven't really got into him, but from a cursory look last night I am concerned about his play speed. When you look at what Green Bay has generally looked for on defense in recent years speed has been their thing - whether Wyatt at DT, Walker at linebacker or Savage at safety - they have gone for guys who are fast for their position so not convinced this is a fit. 

 

Ruke Orhorhoro - DT, Clemson (Dane has at #42 to the Vikings) - I have Minnesota going Quarterback here, I did consider defensive tackle as a possibility though I see the logic. Don't love the player he is very raw to me. Doesn't have the bulk to play the run consistently and I don't think his pass rush package makes him a viable starting 3T at this stage. Provisionally I actually have more of a day 3 developmental grade on him. 

 

Dominick Puni - OT/G, Kansas (Dane has at #45 to the Saints) - I have a receiver for the Saints. I see the point on a left tackle for them but that would mean they are already out on Trevor Penning, a first rounder from two years ago who has had injuries and I'm not sure I see that (if they have I'd love Beane to get on the phone and see what it might take...). On Puni though I really like him. I actually do have a provisional late 2nd on him and really wanted to give him to the Chiefs at the end of the round but thought I might be way off the consensus. Intrigued to see Dane has him so high. 

 

Javon Bullard - S, Georgia (Dane has #47 to the Giants) - I had a defensive tackle here but I considered safety too. Xavier McKinney is a free agent and probably won't be retained. I considered Bullard for the Bills pick at #61 (was a toss up between him and Bullock) and had I carried on to the third round he'd have come off the board within the first few picks. One of the better guys I just didn't find a home for. 

 

Cooper Beebe - G, Kansas State (Dane has #48 to the Jaguars) - I liked Beebe when he was potentially coming out last year but maybe not quite this high. More like a third rounder. I haven't circled back to him to look at his 2023 performance yet so maybe I'd bump him up once I have. I think the Jags have too many potential needs at premium spots to spend a mid-second rounder on a guard (we both gave them Brian Thomas in round 1).

 

Junior Colson - LB, Michigan (Dane has #50 to the Eagles) - Obviously know the name from watching Michigan games on tv but haven't really looked at him at all yet as a draft prospect so don't have a strong view. I thought he was more of a MLB, which would mean shifting Nakobe Dean to WLB. Maybe that's the plan? They definitely need depth at linebacker.

 

Zach Frazier - C, West Virginia (Dane has #51 to the Steelers) - I had Pittsburgh going linebacker and I do think that is a bigger need. But they could upgrade Mason Cole at center. Frazier was a guy I was trying to get into round 2 but he is strictly a gap scheme player and so many places as soon as you look at oline they are running a Shanahan type scheme and you are looking for zone blockers. I do think he goes round 2 though, so I like this pick from Dane (kinda wish I'd thought of it!)

 

Kalen King - CB, Penn State (Dane has #58 to the Packers) - As with his previous Packers pick I had the same position, different player at this spot. Coming into this season I would have said King was a lock to go in the first two rounds of the draft but he reminds me a bit of Kristian Fulton and Kelee Ringo in previous cycles in that his final year in college was his worst. Fulton still squeaked into the end of round 2. Ringo fell to round 4. My gut says King is gonna slide further than this spot.

 

Malachi Corley - WR, Western Kentucky (Dane has #59 to the Texans) - I had the Texans adding a tight end (and I dunno it feels a bit to me like Dane was really trying to get that tight end to fall to Kansas City) and I still think that makes more sense. Corley would be competing for snaps with Tank Dell who was electric for them as a rookie. I also think it is too early for Corley but there could be what I'm going to call "the inverse Jonathan Mingo effect." Last year's WR draft class was so full of slot receivers and YAC guys that a big downfield type like Mingo got artificially inflated because there was a lack of that type of receiver. This year's class is full of vertical receivers near the top and fewer slot / YAC specialists so it wouldn't surprise me if a team looking for that type reached a bit on a Corley or a Roman Wilson or a Jacob Cowing in round 2. 

 

Kiran Amegadjie - OT, Yale (Dane has #63 to the 49ers) - I had the 9ers taking a tackle in round 1 and a guard in round 2... Dane has it the other way around. I have heard a lot of people talking this kid up but I have not seen a single snap of him playing football, so he won't be on my board for that reason. I was expecting him to be at the Senior Bowl but injury is going to keep him out. The combination of small school and big injury make me think he might slide further down the draft through.

 

Darius Robinson - DE, Missouri (Dane has #64 to the Ravens) - I went running back here for the Ravens having gone pass rusher in round one. Robinson is more a round 3 type to me. I think his appeal to 4-3 teams will be limited but I do see the fit for Baltimore because he could play OLB in base and then reduce down and play with his hand in the dirt in obvious passing situations.

 

49 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:

I’ll dig into this more later. I know you do your homework so I applaud that but my biggest criticism is Bo Nix. There is NO WAY he falls all the way to 42. I could make a case for him going in the top 3. He is the most nfl ready QB in this class and has gotten better every year of his college career. He reminds me of Joe Burrow just not yet as elite as Joe as a decision maker (yet…hopefully he can get there because he’s taken huge strides with it since Auburn). He’s got everything you want in a franchise QB and teams know this. Watch Bo’s name keep skyrocketing as media members start hearing and seeing what scouts already know. 

 

May well be that Nix ends up the 4th guy in round one and Penix is a day two guy. I haven't really dug into the Quarterbacks at all yet. 

Edited January 30 by GunnerBill

[NeverOutNick]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

May well be that Nix ends up the 4th guy in round one and Penix is a day two guy. I haven't really dug into the Quarterbacks at all yet. 

I haven’t done a deep dive on any of the positions yet. Just started the WRs because that’s my favorite but just from watching the past few years I know I’d rather have Bo Nix over Jayden Daniels or Penix. I could make a case for him as the QB who has the best career in this class but Williams and Maye have unlimited potential so I get why they’re going to be 1 and 2. Better hope a great QB mind works with Williams though because all the talent in the world isn’t going to make up for the erratic way he plays the QB position. Also I really do like Penix a lot. With a clean pocket there isn’t a better QB in this class but without a great o line he is going to struggle. He’s the bigger stronger version of Tua which is a good thing if you know that going in

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

This drove me nuts when watching him. He didn’t separate from the defender until he caught the ball. Then he’d pull away. Seems to take a while to get to full speed.  

 

Hmm. I think that was more a Spencer Rattler problem. 

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, NeverOutNick said:

I’ll dig into this more later. I know you do your homework so I applaud that but my biggest criticism is Bo Nix. There is NO WAY he falls all the way to 42. I could make a case for him going in the top 3. He is the most nfl ready QB in this class and has gotten better every year of his college career. He reminds me of Joe Burrow just not yet as elite as Joe as a decision maker (yet…hopefully he can get there because he’s taken huge strides with it since Auburn). He’s got everything you want in a franchise QB and teams know this. Watch Bo’s name keep skyrocketing as media members start hearing and seeing what scouts already know. 

You’re forgetting that Bo Nix is going to be collecting social security pretty soon. That harms his draft status.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

You’re forgetting that Bo Nix is going to be collecting social security pretty soon. That harms his draft status.

 

While that is true, he is about to turn 24, that is still comfortably a two contract guy at QB.... he could play until 33. But you draft a 21 or 22 year old you might get three full contracts.

 

I do think less of an issue at QB than at say receiver, or corner though. 

[SoCal Deek]

Well done! I have no idea what you do or did for a living but I’m glued to these posts every year. Your research and writing style are both top notch! 
 

I’m not going to comment on the specific picks or order but I’d love your comments on the overall trends and tendencies in this year’s draft class. For example there are no RBs or LBs in the first round. Is that because of the college class or do you just think the League has evolved away from them? 
 

PS: Even though I said I wouldn’t comment, I did my graduate work at USC so watch them pretty consistently. Their defense has been beyond TERRIBLE for the last few years so if Beane can find an actual NFL starter amongst those totally inept losers he gets my vote as Genius of the Decade! 

Edited January 30 by SoCal Deek