Gunner's 2024 Mock Draft - FINAL v3.0 NOW LIVE (p.13)

[GunnerBill]

34 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Do you think this is a top-heavy WR draft or a deep draft?

 

I only ask because I felt that in 2020, there were some great first round players, but the real strength of the WR class was that there would be guys in the later rounds that would’ve gone much higher in different years. Do you think that’s the case this year? Or is the strength truly in the first 10 or so prospects? 

 

I think it is definitely stronger at the top than 2020. This top 3 is better than that top 3. The next tier - Higgins, Aiyuk and Pittman is comparable to the next tier this year.

[Dr. Who]

52 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think it is definitely stronger at the top than 2020. This top 3 is better than that top 3. The next tier - Higgins, Aiyuk and Pittman is comparable to the next tier this year.

To be honest, the more I research, the more I think I would be willing to pay a fairly high price to move up and grab one of the top 3 if someone slips to 8 or 9.

[gonzo1105]

41 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think it is definitely stronger at the top than 2020. This top 3 is better than that top 3. The next tier - Higgins, Aiyuk and Pittman is comparable to the next tier this year.

I’m not gonna skim because I don’t recall your 2020 rankings and maybe that’s what you’re going off of but Higgins and Pittman were WRs 7 and 8 in that draft. 

 

Was your grouping 5 deep after Ruggs, Jeudy , Lamb? Like I said can’t recall. I know I was higher on Jeudy and Jefferson than Ruggs for sure but man that draft while deep was very boom or bust probably a lot like this one. I wonder what Ruggs would have been if he didn’t do stupid crap 

[TPS]

On 3/29/2024 at 8:46 AM, frostbitmic said:

I like the Mitchell pick to the Bills, at least he hasn't shrunk two inches like Franklin and Legette.

 

I see a lot of people that want Newton @28 but the Bills are already paying Oliver as the 3tech and drafting another 3tech in the first to play maybe 1/3 of snaps probably isn't the best idea. I think Newton will be long gone before #28 anyways.

Given @GunnerBill’s scenario here, I think Beane would take Newton, because he sticks to his board, not decisions about possible playing time. Newton is a top half talent and Mitchell a (very) back half one. 

if the Bills are truly set on picking a WR, then I would think the optimal decision is to trade back if Newton is there. 

[section122]

Nice mock @GunnerBill.  I do think mhj to the cardinals is as much of a lock as williams is to the bears.  I think the vikings trade with the chargers right after.

 

Worthy to the Dolphins would be trouble imo that's a great pick and justification I agree with that I hadn't thought of yet.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, TPS said:

Given @GunnerBill’s scenario here, I think Beane would take Newton, because he sticks to his board, not decisions about possible playing time. Newton is a top half talent and Mitchell a (very) back half one. 

if the Bills are truly set on picking a WR, then I would think the optimal decision is to trade back if Newton is there. 

 

I agree in terms of their talents. And three years ago I might have agreed with what they'd do. But I suspect they do feel just a little bit of urgency given everything. Maybe Newton just goes much earlier (I'd take him at #9 if I was Chicago and the top 3 WRs were gone - he is my top ranked defensive player) and it saves any debate.

32 minutes ago, section122 said:

Nice mock @GunnerBill.  I do think mhj to the cardinals is as much of a lock as williams is to the bears.  I think the vikings trade with the chargers right after.

 

Worthy to the Dolphins would be trouble imo that's a great pick and justification I agree with that I hadn't thought of yet.

 

McDaniel was trying to be his "bro" at the pro day too. That was very cringe but possibly also telling.

[Chaos]

22 hours ago, FireChans said:

Does Josh remain a cautionary tale on trading up?

No. Most people understand the difference between a linebacker and a quarter in terms of risk / reward.  Maybe someday everyone will grasp that. 

 

[foreboding]

I think Nabers is the #1 reciever. He's way more explosive than MHJ.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, foreboding said:

I think Nabers is the #1 reciever. He's way more explosive than MHJ.

 

Definitely more explosive. Not as polished or nuanced. I wouldn't be stunned if in 5 years he is the better NFL player. I still have Harrison and Nabers closer than I do Nabers and Odunze.

[FireChans]

22 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

I’m not gonna skim because I don’t recall your 2020 rankings and maybe that’s what you’re going off of but Higgins and Pittman were WRs 7 and 8 in that draft. 

 

Was your grouping 5 deep after Ruggs, Jeudy , Lamb? Like I said can’t recall. I know I was higher on Jeudy and Jefferson than Ruggs for sure but man that draft while deep was very boom or bust probably a lot like this one. I wonder what Ruggs would have been if he didn’t do stupid crap 

GB had 17 WR’s in his top 100 in 2020. It will be interesting to see how many there are this year.

 

Also, @GunnerBill are you still doing QB evals? Not as fun when we aren’t in the market, but they are usually a great read.

[TPS]

18 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree in terms of their talents. And three years ago I might have agreed with what they'd do. But I suspect they do feel just a little bit of urgency given everything. Maybe Newton just goes much earlier (I'd take him at #9 if I was Chicago and the top 3 WRs were gone - he is my top ranked defensive player) and it saves any debate.

You did state that you could see the Bills moving up or back here, and I think that is more likely than Beane picking a WR who is a borderline R1/2 talent over a top 15 talent.  Again, this is just based on your scenario. 

 

[GunnerBill]

23 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

I’m not gonna skim because I don’t recall your 2020 rankings and maybe that’s what you’re going off of but Higgins and Pittman were WRs 7 and 8 in that draft. 

 

Was your grouping 5 deep after Ruggs, Jeudy , Lamb? Like I said can’t recall. I know I was higher on Jeudy and Jefferson than Ruggs for sure but man that draft while deep was very boom or bust probably a lot like this one. I wonder what Ruggs would have been if he didn’t do stupid crap 

 

Yea I was Lamb and Jeudy, then Ruggs. I actually then had the next 4 as Higgins, Aiyuk, Jefferson and Pittman.

 

I do think it was similar in that there was consensus wise a top 3 and then a 4th guy who most but not everyone liked (and from LSU as well) then a gap and a group of guys who were seen as late day 1 / early day 2.

[DJB]

17 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I was Lamb and Jeudy, then Ruggs. I actually then had the next 4 as Higgins, Aiyuk, Jefferson and Pittman.

 

I do think it was similar in that there was consensus wise a top 3 and then a 4th guy who most but not everyone liked (and from LSU as well) then a gap and a group of guys who were seen as late day 1 / early day 2.

 

Those were my pre draft rankings. Hugely wrong about Jeudy but nailed everything else pretty much 

 

Do you have a link or a post Gunner which proves that was your order as you had it written above? If so huge respect 

Edited March 31 by DJB

[GunnerBill]

49 minutes ago, DJB said:

 

Those were my pre draft rankings. Hugely wrong about Jeudy but nailed everything else pretty much 

 

Do you have a link or a post Gunner which proves that was your order as you had it written above? If so huge respect 

 

Ha my top 5 will be on here somewhere. I am not sure Kudos is deserved. JJ is the best receiver in the NFL and I had a 2nd round grade on him. I liked Higgins and Aiyuk a bit more than most though.

 

[GunnerBill]

@DJB here is the link to my top 5

 

As I say.... I had Jefferson as a second so I am not claiming a total W. I was right on Higgins and Aiyuk. But wrong on Jeudy, wrong on Jefferson and who knows on Ruggs.

 

Edited March 31 by GunnerBill

[NewEra]

On 3/30/2024 at 1:18 PM, section122 said:

Nice mock @GunnerBill.  I do think mhj to the cardinals is as much of a lock as williams is to the bears.  I think the vikings trade with the chargers right after.

 

Worthy to the Dolphins would be trouble imo that's a great pick and justification I agree with that I hadn't thought of yet.

I don’t see how the chargers will be trading down. I think they traded Allen and let Williams go because they knew they’d be able to get Mhj, Nabers or Odunze.  All look to be close to surefire WR1s.  Huge questions about every other WR.  Quinton Johnston doesn’t look like a WR1.  I don’t think their plan is to seriously downgrade their receiver unit.  Trading down would do just that.

[mannc]

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

I don’t see how the chargers will be trading down. I think they traded Allen and let Williams go because they knew they’d be able to get Mhj, Nabers or Odunze.  All look to be close to surefire WR1s.  Huge questions about every other WR.  Quinton Johnston doesn’t look like a WR1.  I don’t think their plan is to seriously downgrade their receiver unit.  Trading down would do just that.

I know Johnston wasn’t their pick, but it’s too early to write him off, and I don’t see a Jim Harbaugh team taking a WR in round 1 two years in a row.  I think they trade back, take a tackle and then a WR later, probably on day 2.

[section122]

4 hours ago, NewEra said:

I don’t see how the chargers will be trading down. I think they traded Allen and let Williams go because they knew they’d be able to get Mhj, Nabers or Odunze.  All look to be close to surefire WR1s.  Huge questions about every other WR.  Quinton Johnston doesn’t look like a WR1.  I don’t think their plan is to seriously downgrade their receiver unit.  Trading down would do just that.

 

I think the chargers would be better off with 11 and 23 instead of just 5 and grabbing a wr.  Bowers and another 1st round talent at say rt.  Or maybe odunze slides to 11 and they still have 23.  

 

I don't think it's a full rebuild in la built i do think its a hard reset.  They have a lot of holes on their roster.   

 

On a more personal feeling I dont believe a greg roman offense would really feature back to back 1st round picks at wr.  I think its more likely they look to create a strong oline and defense than a high flying offense as counterintuitive as that may be with herbert at the qb spot.  It would be more in line with his coaching history.

[Norcalbillsfan]

Awesome mock, but I think McDermott would flip a table if beane took Mitchell and Johnny Newton is still on the board. It's a position of need this year, and a massive need in the coming years and he's arguably the best in the draft.

 

I could see McDermott himself sprinting to the podium to turn in the card if Newton is still there.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, section122 said:

 

I think the chargers would be better off with 11 and 23 instead of just 5 and grabbing a wr.  Bowers and another 1st round talent at say rt.  Or maybe odunze slides to 11 and they still have 23.  

 

I don't think it's a full rebuild in la built i do think its a hard reset.  They have a lot of holes on their roster.   

 

On a more personal feeling I dont believe a greg roman offense would really feature back to back 1st round picks at wr.  I think its more likely they look to create a strong oline and defense than a high flying offense as counterintuitive as that may be with herbert at the qb spot.  It would be more in line with his coaching history.

 

If the Chargers go into the season with what they currently have at receiver it will be without question the weakest receiver group in the NFL and not even close. I just can't see how they generate any offense at all with it. 

 

I get the Oline point but they have a left tackle. They also have a first round left guard. As much as I love Joe Alt are they really spending a third first round pick in four years on offensive line? 

 

I think anything other than pick the best receiver available to them is unspeakably dumb. It is by far the biggest roster need and it is where the genuine top 10 talent is in this draft. Talk about value matching need.

 

The other thing to throw into that mix of course is Arizona. If they trade back and the first four picks are QBs I am not sure where the callers are for a trade up. Maybe someone else calls to get up for MHJ. But if the Vikings and their two picks are off the board as a partner then what are the offers? Future picks? I mean maybe Harbaugh is happy to punt on 2024 somewhat... hard to know.

 

 

51 minutes ago, Norcalbillsfan said:

Awesome mock, but I think McDermott would flip a table if beane took Mitchell and Johnny Newton is still on the board. It's a position of need this year, and a massive need in the coming years and he's arguably the best in the draft.

 

I could see McDermott himself sprinting to the podium to turn in the card if Newton is still there.

 

It is not a position of need. Johnny Newton is a 3T. The Bills have one of their best players at 3T, they just paid him and he just had a career year. You can't line Newton up with Oliver in anything more than pure pass rush downs. And if they are going to spend a 1st round pick on a 3T and then force fit him into a 1T shaped hole.... well they deserve everything they get.

Edited April 1 by GunnerBill