DCOrange Posted January 30 Posted January 30 (edited) 55 minutes ago, HurlyBurly51 said: Wasn't it a 45 yarder? Seems Nate is massaging his stats to support his case. The 4th and 3 would have been a 48 yarder I believe. The other one was 45. Regardless, I do agree that 48 is different from 48+. But even just looking at his career stats without diving too deep, he's at 78% for his career in the 40-49 range and 38% from 50+. I reckon it's probably around a 50-60% chance of him making the 48 yarder in normal conditions, which is probably slightly worse than their chances of converting on 4th down (I'm not going to pretend the 75% number that everyone is citing is a large enough sample size to really be informative). Of course even after converting, they still had to continue moving the ball to score, which is probably why all those "Should they go for it?" calculators had it as a pretty negligible difference. Edited January 30 by DCOrange Quote
Simon Posted January 30 Posted January 30 29 minutes ago, Chaos said: What we do know is that fully adjusted for the game pressure of the NFL Championship game, Did you also adjust for the pressure of making a 45-48 yrd FG in the pressure of the NFC Championship game? Outdoors? On bad grass? Or are you just selecting your data so that it will reach the conclusion of the narrative you've already decided on? Quote
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