Playoff defense not just bad, next level awful

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Rudolph was light years beyond trubisky and Pickett…it’s not even remotely close.  Their offense was above average with Rudolph which was the only reason they found themselves in the playoffs.  Dropped 34 on the bengals and 30 on the Seahawks who were both fighting for their playoff lives

 

this is the kind of revisionist history about bills wins that I’m talking about lol 

 

Like Joe Flacco being hot until he throws back to back pick sixes right? The bottom line is nobody believes Rudolph was the long-term answer and that includes for the 2023 season. It was only a matter of time until he turned back into a pumpkin. God help the Steelers if they go into the season with Rudolph as their 2024 starter. If the answer is Rudolph, Pickett or Trubitzky, then it is time to re-evaluate the question. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

15 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

You're just going to play dumb on this and expect people to take you seriously?

I think the answer is in between both arguments somewhere…the chiefs average a ridiculous 32 ppg in the playoffs since mahomes took over it’s not terribly surprising they score points against defenses that were good in the regular season..  I don’t think the bills are failing much worse than anyone else in their path but they certainly need to improve obviously 

 

Its easy to be pessimistic based on the playoff h2h I can’t argue that but I think bills chiefs games are gonna be toss ups for the foreseeable future..  If we had one of Milano/bernard for that game I really think that was a likely win 

 

 

4 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Like Joe Flacco being hot until he throws back to back pick sixes right? The bottom line is nobody believes Rudolph was the long-term answer and that includes for the 2023 season. It was only a matter of time until he turned back into a pumpkin. God help the Steelers if they go into the season with Rudolph as their 2024 starter. If the answer is Rudolph, Pickett or Trubitzky, then it is time to re-evaluate the question. 

Flacco was a pumpkin the whole time…the dude was turning the ball over like crazy but no one was paying any attention for whatever reason.  I think he had 10 turnovers in 5 games 

 

nobody is saying Rudolph is the long term answer lol you’re kind of changing the question there.  He was just the best qb on that roster by a long shot.  To hear people say ‘you’re lucky you didn’t see Pickett’ is absolutely laughable 

Edited January 29 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

8 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

 

 

nobody is saying Rudolph is the long term answer lol you’re kind of changing the question there.  He was just the best qb on that roster by a long shot.  To hear people say ‘you’re lucky you didn’t see Pickett’ is absolutely laughable 

 

Well that I agree with. They are all garbage. 

[billsfan714]

11 hours ago, Billsturfwars said:

"Sean McDermott's Bills Defense in the last four playoff eliminations: (Chiefs x 3, Bengals x 1)

 

38 Drives

 

16 Touchdowns

8 Field Goals

6 Punts

6 Kneel-downs/End of Half

1 Missed Field Goal

1 Turnover

 

134 Points allowed"

 

yeah; I think the playoff defense has pretty much sucked.

 

The only thing that post was missing was a mike drop.   Very telling numbers.  I'm reading those and take out the kneel-downs and end of halves, and teams have scored/attempted to score(missed FG) on 25 of 32 drives, not good at all.   The 134 points is 33.5 a game, that's never going to win a championship, and were weren't banged up in all those years, so that excuse goes out the window.

[FireChans]

7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

The obvious counterpoint to FireChans bringing up other games against weaker opponents is that the playoffs are single elimination. So the only thing that ultimately matters is what you do in your final game. We all know the defense can stop the Mason Rudolphs and Skylar Thompsons of the NFL. I thought the goal was to win a Super Bowl. Until we can at least slow down the Joe Burrows and Pat Mahomes of the NFL, we aren't coming close to a Super Bowl win.

 

Hopefully one more playoff run that ends with an abysmal defensive performance will be enough to convince the absent billionaire who owns our team that it's time for a change at the top. If we're heading into Allen's age 29 season with McDermott still in charge coming off a 6th consecutive disappointing playoff exit, I will be convinced that the Allen era will end without a single Lombardi. Which is really just depressing to consider.

Nobody can stop Patrick Mahomes. Allen should demand a trade to the NFC if he wants to play in a Super Bowl. 

[Bermuda Triangle]

10 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Nobody can stop Patrick Mahomes. Allen should demand a trade to the NFC if he wants to play in a Super Bowl. 

Ravens held the Chiefs to 17 points yesterday.  I’d say that’s a pretty good job.

[Gregg]

Just now, Bermuda Triangle said:

Ravens held the Chiefs to 17 points yesterday.  I’d say that’s a pretty good job.

 

After the Chiefs scored TDs on their first 2 drives, they were held to 3 points the rest of the game. If the Ravens don't fumble the ball at the goal line there is a good chance, they win the game. Great play by the Chiefs defender to knock the ball out.

[T master]

19 hours ago, Bermuda Triangle said:

Been told over and over on this forum that the offense has been at fault for playoff losses, including last week.  Guess those people probably won't respond in this thread.

 

Well it sure doesn't help when the offensive players drop wide open passes or even the contested catches that they usually catch so i'd say they share the blame and it's not Josh he put the ball IN THEIR HANDS & they have 2 jobs get open, & CATCH THE BALL .

 

Sheffield had 2 drops, Diggs couple, & Cook 1 that's 5 chances at a game winning score and that's not on the coaches or the D so i'd say there is something to those that say it's on the offense because in part it was ...

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, Bermuda Triangle said:

Ravens held the Chiefs to 17 points yesterday.  I’d say that’s a pretty good job.

Did they lose?

[Bermuda Triangle]

Just now, FireChans said:

Did they lose?

I don’t know.  Did you watch the game?

 

you posted “Nobody can stop Mahomes”.  The Ravens D did a pretty good job of doing so yesterday 

[RiotAct]

15 hours ago, HappyDays said:

All year the book on the Chiefs was score more than 20 points and you win the game. The Ravens game ends up being the same script.

 

The Bills end the season being the ONLY team all year to score more than 20 on the Chiefs and lose the game. Another frustrating end to the season caused solely by our defense. And I see no path to fixing it next year. We're stuck in neutral. ****

 

Diggs makes that catch in the final drive and our win probability for that game probably goes up to like 70%.

Edited January 29 by RiotAct
Fixed atrocious spelling

[FireChans]

41 minutes ago, Bermuda Triangle said:

I don’t know.  Did you watch the game?

 

you posted “Nobody can stop Mahomes”.  The Ravens D did a pretty good job of doing so yesterday 

They didn’t stop him from getting to the Super Bowl. 4/5 years. We are unfortunately “also rans” to what may be the greatest dynasty ever. 

[PaoloBillsFanFromItaly]

So when defense plays well we win, when defense play awful we lose, what a surprise...

[warrior9]

20 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

I knew our defense in the playoffs was bad, but I didn't realize it was at this level of bad.

 

These are our DVOA rankings since 2020, which are all above average with 2021 and 2022 being elite. 

 

2020: 11th

2021: 2nd

2022: 1st

2023: 12th

 

This is EPA allowed in our playoff losses along with the EPA each of these teams posted in other playoff games that same year.  I included how that EPA ranked on the season for that team. 

 

Kansas City 2023: vs Buffalo, 11.85 EPA 5th best on the season

Other playoff games that year: Miami EPA 9.58, 7th best

 

Bengals 2022: vs Buffalo, 22.03 EPA, 3rd best on the season

Other Playoff games that year: KC 4.06 EPA 10th best, Ravens .7 EPA 16th best

 

Kansas City 2021: vs Buffalo, 32.62 EPA, 3rd best on the season

Other playoff games that year: Steelers 16.09 EPA, 9th best, Bengals 11.28 EPA 12th best

 

Kansas City 2020: Vs Buffalo, 30.34 1st best on the season

Other playoff games that year: Browns 19.09 EPA 9th best, Tampa Bay: -7.90 EPA 19th best

 

For context, Kansas City has not had an EPA in the 20's in a playoff game one time since 2020 but they have had 2 games vs us in the 30's.  The Bengals have not had a offensive EPA over 10 in any playoff game in the Burrow era but they had one in the 20's against us. It's not just that we underperform, it's that we allow historically excellent performances from these teams with a defense that rates either above average or far above average in the regular season. 

@NewEra

 

Should he just get over it? Or can you finally answer "What makes you think McDermott can get us to the Superbowl?"

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Did they lose?

 

Josh Allen was let down by his defense.

 

The Ravens defense was let down by Lamar Jackson. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

8 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Well that I agree with. They are all garbage. 

There are varying degrees of garbage 😂. Trubisky and Pickett are horrendous…Rudolph is serviceable 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Nobody can stop Patrick Mahomes.

 

The Ravens defense stopped him 6 times yesterday. We have stopped him 4 times in 3 playoff games.

 

Go on. Pretend you meant something different.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

55 minutes ago, FireChans said:

They didn’t stop him from getting to the Super Bowl. 4/5 years. We are unfortunately “also rans” to what may be the greatest dynasty ever. 

 I don’t think they’ll catch the pats…if Chris jones leaves the party’s over imo.   he’s the glue holding that defense together…the division could tighten up for them if jones walks 

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The Ravens defense stopped him 6 times yesterday. We have stopped him 4 times in 3 playoff games.

 

Go on. Pretend you meant something different.

We must be holding them to more fgs than other teams with only 4 total stops cuz we are not far off the chiefs average playoff ppg. 

Edited January 29 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I find it hard to judge the 2024 games simply because i think we all knew missing these guys was a lot to overcome.  

 

Milano

Bernard
Spector

White

Benford 

Phillips

 

With banged up players also playing 

Dodson

Douglas 

T. Johnson

DQ Jones

 

Starting a 3rd string LB, and a backup LB in a sling - neither of which can handle a player like Kelce on their best day.  A CB with a knee injury, another coming off a concussion.  Not to mention... the regular dings players pick up over the course of a long season.  Just too much, KC caught us at the right time and their offensive line was able to pretty much dominate the LOS.  

 

As much as we need a WR, we need a lot of help on the defensive line - and likely a pair of safeties.  Von was a swing and a miss - and they can't really swing again til he's gone after next year most likely.  3T was oliver and no one.  1T was DQ and Joseph (both free agents).  

13 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

 I don’t think they’ll catch the pats…if Chris jones leaves the party’s over imo.   he’s the glue holding that defense together…the division could tighten up for them if jones walks 

We must be holding them to more fgs than other teams with only 4 total stops cuz we are not far off the chiefs average playoff ppg. 

 

Their offensive line is very very good.  Even with Taylor being a penalty magnet, he's still a pretty talented player.  Thuney's a monster.  Humphrey's a monster.

 

Defensively - they put a lot of emphasis on LB's.  They cover, they tackle, and they blitz.  Spagnuolo's disguising helps with lots of this, but they have a great set of linebackers that make plays all over the field.  

[SCBills]

14 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

 I don’t think they’ll catch the pats…if Chris jones leaves the party’s over imo.   he’s the glue holding that defense together…the division could tighten up for them if jones walks 

We must be holding them to more fgs than other teams with only 4 total stops cuz we are not far off the chiefs average playoff ppg. 

 

This is an underrated point about Chris Jones.  

 

Not only is he a menace himself, but he elevates the other (good, not great) players around him like Karlaftis.  And is the driver of that pass rush. 

 

But I'm starting to resign myself to the idea that they will always figure something out.  They lost Hill, nailed the draft with all the extra picks and now we're lamenting Jones and Kelce.  It is what it is.  They will always be there in the end.. the Bills need to get better.. not hope for the Chiefs to get worse.