Playoff defense not just bad, next level awful

[Mikie2times]

I knew our defense in the playoffs was bad, but I didn't realize it was at this level of bad.

 

These are our DVOA rankings since 2020, which are all above average with 2021 and 2022 being elite. 

 

2020: 11th

2021: 2nd

2022: 1st

2023: 12th

 

This is EPA allowed in our playoff losses along with the EPA each of these teams posted in other playoff games that same year.  I included how that EPA ranked on the season for that team. 

 

Kansas City 2023: vs Buffalo, 11.85 EPA 5th best on the season

Other playoff games that year: Miami EPA 9.58, 7th best

 

Bengals 2022: vs Buffalo, 22.03 EPA, 3rd best on the season

Other Playoff games that year: KC 4.06 EPA 10th best, Ravens .7 EPA 16th best

 

Kansas City 2021: vs Buffalo, 32.62 EPA, 3rd best on the season

Other playoff games that year: Steelers 16.09 EPA, 9th best, Bengals 11.28 EPA 12th best

 

Kansas City 2020: Vs Buffalo, 30.34 1st best on the season

Other playoff games that year: Browns 19.09 EPA 9th best, Tampa Bay: -7.90 EPA 19th best

 

For context, Kansas City has not had an EPA in the 20's in a playoff game one time since 2020 but they have had 2 games vs us in the 30's.  The Bengals have not had a offensive EPA over 10 in any playoff game in the Burrow era but they had one in the 20's against us. It's not just that we underperform, it's that we allow historically excellent performances from these teams with a defense that rates either above average or far above average in the regular season. 

[ChanticleerBillsFan]

That’s what our eyes have been telling us, it’s good to have some context. 🙏 

[BuffaloBill]

Outside of injuries this year it is hard to understand just how badly the D falls off in the playoffs.  Some of the talking head shows postulate that the length of the season hits “aged” players harder. The Bills D is not a youth movement. Who knows maybe there is something to this thought.

[Bermuda Triangle]

Been told over and over on this forum that the offense has been at fault for playoff losses, including last week.  Guess those people probably won't respond in this thread.

[TheWeatherMan]

This is reason alone to $h1t can your defensive HC.  

[Mr. WEO]

matches the playoff performance of the DC/HC......

[FireChans]

23 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I knew our defense in the playoffs was bad, but I didn't realize it was at this level of bad.

 

These are our DVOA rankings since 2020, which are all above average with 2021 and 2022 being elite. 

 

2020: 11th

2021: 2nd

2022: 1st

2023: 12th

 

This is EPA allowed in our playoff losses along with the EPA each of these teams posted in other playoff games that same year.  I included how that EPA ranked on the season for that team. 

 

Kansas City 2023: vs Buffalo, 11.85 EPA 5th best on the season

Other playoff games that year: Miami EPA 9.58, 7th best

 

Bengals 2022: vs Buffalo, 22.03 EPA, 3rd best on the season

Other Playoff games that year: KC 4.06 EPA 10th best, Ravens .7 EPA 16th best

 

Kansas City 2021: vs Buffalo, 32.62 EPA, 3rd best on the season

Other playoff games that year: Steelers 16.09 EPA, 9th best, Bengals 11.28 EPA 12th best

 

Kansas City 2020: Vs Buffalo, 30.34 1st best on the season

Other playoff games that year: Browns 19.09 EPA 9th best, Tampa Bay: -7.90 EPA 19th best

 

For context, Kansas City has not had an EPA in the 20's in a playoff game one time since 2020 but they have had 2 games vs us in the 30's.  The Bengals have not had an offensive EPA over 10 in any playoff game in the Burrow era but they had one in the 20's against us. It's not just that we underperform, it's that we allow historically excellent performances from these teams with a defense that rates either above average or far above average in the regular season. 

Why don’t you include playoffs on a whole instead of losses

[Buffalo ill]

Is dvoa related to dvda?

[Mikie2times]

Just now, FireChans said:

Why don’t you include playoffs on a whole instead of losses

In 2020, the Colts had the 3rd best EPA of the year vs us. 

 

I guess it doesn't really matter to me that we trounced on gadget offense with Lamar, beat Skyler Thompson, then Mason Rudolph. It's kind of funny that matters to you. But that would round out the rest of the numbers. 

[Dick_Cheney]

There are only two possible reasons for this. Historically bad luck with key defensive injuries, or coaching.

 

The answer could honestly be both of them. Luck evens out over a long enough time frame, but so many other things also change during that time frame that it might not be enough to get over our current Division Round hump, let alone win a Super Bowl.

 

First priority is obviously managing our cap situation. Then I think that if by the trade deadline we are in contention for the #1 seed, I think we have to go all out in trying to get it. Sell the farm and take the risk. It's unfortunately obvious at this point that Beane could have been significantly more aggressive this past year at the deadline and acquired at least another receiver, and while that wouldn't have resolved our defensive woes, it's entirely possible it would have been enough to overcome them. If we had grabbed DHop or maybe even Henry, I think it's fair to say that we probably wouldn't have been screaming about dudes dropping balls the entire second half of the season.

 

It's so damn frustrating to feel like between ownership, coaching, and player management there is always some aspect of this organization holding back and not willing to go balls to the wall to do absolutely ***** everything possible to win a championship. I can only hope that the pain and disappointment of this year has turned those gears a little bit more for Beane and McDermott.

[BBFL]

14 minutes ago, Bermuda Triangle said:

Been told over and over on this forum that the offense has been at fault for playoff losses, including last week.  Guess those people probably won't respond in this thread.

I think the majority of people claim the offense is at fault because we know what they are capable of and have underperformed. No one is relying on the defense to win the game. Big difference. 

It’s been a consistent theme of guys not showing up except Josh…

 

🤷‍♂️

[Ya Digg?]

1 minute ago, Mikie2times said:

In 2020, the Colts had the 3rd best EPA of the year vs us. 

 

I guess it doesn't really matter to me that we trounced on gadget offense with Lamar, beat Skyler Thompson, then Mason Rudolph. It's kind of funny that matters to you. But that would round out the rest of the numbers. 

Well what it does is it shows your bias, plain and simple. You actually did do some good work but give the full picture that’s all 

20 minutes ago, Bermuda Triangle said:

Been told over and over on this forum that the offense has been at fault for playoff losses, including last week.  Guess those people probably won't respond in this thread.

You’ve never seen threads and posts about how bad the defense has continually played in the playoffs? We must read different threads because that has been a theme for years 

[Mikie2times]

Just now, Ya Digg? said:

Well what it does is it shows your bias, plain and simple. You actually did do some good work but give the full picture that’s all 

I picked the last game of the season consistently across the board. Beating 3rd world QB's at home is not what is keeping us from moving further. Getting absolutely decimated when we step up in competition is.    

[FireChans]

8 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

In 2020, the Colts had the 3rd best EPA of the year vs us. 

 

I guess it doesn't really matter to me that we trounced on gadget offense with Lamar, beat Skyler Thompson, then Mason Rudolph. It's kind of funny that matters to you. But that would round out the rest of the numbers. 

Every single one of those games were playoff and single elimination games. If you’re trying to make a point about defense in the playoffs, include all the playoff games lmao. 

27 minutes ago, Bermuda Triangle said:

Been told over and over on this forum that the offense has been at fault for playoff losses, including last week.  Guess those people probably won't respond in this thread.

I mean, did we expect to beat the Bengals with 10 points?

[Mikie2times]

9 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Every single one of those games were playoff and single elimination games. If you’re trying to make a point about defense in the playoffs, include all the playoff games lmao. 

I mean, did we expect to beat the Bengals with 10 points?

 

 

In 2020, vs the Colts, the Colts had a EPA of 18.47, which is about the most the Chiefs have ever put up in the Mahomes era and the 3rd highest total they posted that year. 

 

In the Ravens and Bills game, both teams had the worst EPA of the season on offense. I'm guessing the wind played a roll in that.

 

In the Dolphins game in 2022, it was the worst EPA they had on the season as well but it was Skyler Thompson, so I really don't know what kind of context this provides us.

 

In 2023, The Steelers had the 9th rated EPA against us on the season. Middle of the road for what output they had. 

 

What exactly are you trying to hang your hat on here?  

Edited January 28 by Mikie2times

[Julio Hopkins]

35 minutes ago, Bermuda Triangle said:

Been told over and over on this forum that the offense has been at fault for playoff losses, including last week.  Guess those people probably won't respond in this thread.

 

It's literally insane, if the offense played like they did against the Bengals last year then the Chiefs would have put up 40+ points with one of the worst receiving corps in the league.  

[C.Biscuit97]

I would be helpful to know how the offenses we played in the regular season were ranked compared to the offenses in the postseason. You can pad stats against bad qbs/ teams on the regular season. A little different against Mahomes and Burrow.

[K D]

How about just have an offense that scores a ton of points like what we used to have with Daboll?

[BuffaloButt]

55 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I knew our defense in the playoffs was bad, but I didn't realize it was at this level of bad.

 

These are our DVOA rankings since 2020, which are all above average with 2021 and 2022 being elite. 

 

2020: 11th

2021: 2nd

2022: 1st

2023: 12th

 

This is EPA allowed in our playoff losses along with the EPA each of these teams posted in other playoff games that same year.  I included how that EPA ranked on the season for that team. 

 

Kansas City 2023: vs Buffalo, 11.85 EPA 5th best on the season

Other playoff games that year: Miami EPA 9.58, 7th best

 

Bengals 2022: vs Buffalo, 22.03 EPA, 3rd best on the season

Other Playoff games that year: KC 4.06 EPA 10th best, Ravens .7 EPA 16th best

 

Kansas City 2021: vs Buffalo, 32.62 EPA, 3rd best on the season

Other playoff games that year: Steelers 16.09 EPA, 9th best, Bengals 11.28 EPA 12th best

 

Kansas City 2020: Vs Buffalo, 30.34 1st best on the season

Other playoff games that year: Browns 19.09 EPA 9th best, Tampa Bay: -7.90 EPA 19th best

 

For context, Kansas City has not had an EPA in the 20's in a playoff game one time since 2020 but they have had 2 games vs us in the 30's.  The Bengals have not had a offensive EPA over 10 in any playoff game in the Burrow era but they had one in the 20's against us. It's not just that we underperform, it's that we allow historically excellent performances from these teams with a defense that rates either above average or far above average in the regular season. 

So the question come into play, WHY??  Why is the D so bad in the playoffs?  What are the coaches and players doing?  

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

How about just have an offense that scores a ton of points like what we used to have with Daboll?

 

Yeah imagine if we had an offense that scored TDs on 12 out of 16 drives in the playoffs. Surely that offense would make it past the divisional round. No way the defense could spoil such an impossibly great performance.