2024 WR Draft Class

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

 

Thomas WILL be gone well before 28 in almost ANY sane draft scenario. One of Mitchell and/or Worthy is potentially still on the board, and I think viable at 28 (Adonai Mitchell especially screams future #1 WR to me). Coleman's 40 time could very well push him to Day Two, although I think he's much more dynamic than that isolated test suggests. Picks 20-50 could see 7 or 8 WRs selected in a legendary run (Mitchell, Worthy, Coleman, McConkey, Pearsall, McMillan, Legette, Franklin, Polk, Baker or Cowing, Wilson, and others are all potentially in play). 

 

Agree. That is where I think the run comes. I am not sure there is going to be a huge run between the top 10 and Dallas at #24. In fact I can see only one going in that spell. But from Dallas at #24 to the middle of round two.... that could be a serious run. 

[BillsFanForever19]

5 hours ago, DCOrange said:

I have a hard time envisioning Beane, with his track record, collecting more picks when we already have 10 or whatever. But I agree, I think I’d probably look to trade down or draft a different position if Thomas doesn’t make it to 28 (which he almost certainly won’t). After the top 4, the other guys that I believe are fringe first rounders are currently sliding down the board and seem gettable in the 40s at this point. 

 

11 Picks so far. We could use a 3rd after getting screwed by the league. But I don't know if I agree that if Thomas is gone we should Trade Down or wait until Round 2 on WR.

 

I think if Mitchell is on the board, we should pull the trigger. I worry about Worthy's fit, but being the fastest player ever recorded has me a little more liberal with giving him a chance. And I know you aren't as high on Legette as me, but from an athlete standpoint - he feels like exactly what we'd be looking for.

 

Personally after Mitchell and Legette are gone, I feel like the next tier of guys aren't great fits. McConkey, Pearsall, Corley, McMillan, and R. Wilson are all either Slots or not True Outside WR's imo. Franklin and Coleman have things about them that really bother me and were highlighted at the Combine.

 

If you wait until 60, who knows what's left. If you trade down, you could miss out on a guy like Mitchell or Legette that fit what I think we're looking for. I don't see it the same that after Thomas, there isn't that much of a difference on who we take and can afford to wait.

Edited March 9 by BillsFanForever19

[DJB]

 

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

11 Picks so far. We could use a 3rd after getting screwed by the league. But I don't know if I agree that if Thomas is gone we should Trade Down or wait until Round 2 on WR.

 

I think if Mitchell is on the board, we should pull the trigger. I worry about Worthy's fit, but being the fastest player ever recorded has me a little more liberal with giving him a chance. And I know you aren't as high on Legette as me, but from an athlete standpoint - he feels like exactly what we'd be looking for.

 

Personally after Mitchell and Legette are gone, I feel like the next tier of guys aren't great fits. McConkey, Pearsall, Corley, McMillan, and R. Wilson are all either Slots or not True Outside WR's imo. Franklin and Coleman have things about them that really bother me and were highlighted at the Combine.

 

If you wait until 60, who knows what's left. If you trade down, you could miss out on a guy like Mitchell or Legette that fit what I think we're looking for. I don't see it the same that after Thomas, there isn't that much of a difference on who we take and can afford to wait.

I think that not having a 3rd might push them to go D in 1st and leave wr to 60.  Not what we all might want, but if they still need a potential starter at DE (in case Von can’t return to some form), they won’t find that at 60 whereas they might still find someone who could step in and provide what Davis did at 60.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

7 hours ago, DCOrange said:

I have a hard time envisioning Beane, with his track record, collecting more picks when we already have 10 or whatever. But I agree, I think I’d probably look to trade down or draft a different position if Thomas doesn’t make it to 28 (which he almost certainly won’t). After the top 4, the other guys that I believe are fringe first rounders are currently sliding down the board and seem gettable in the 40s at this point. 

I am okay with this for a few reasons. Everyone is banging the drum for WR1 right now, when in reality, we are desperate for it. Taking a very good talent early in the second that has the potential to be a long term #2 WR (even if it’s a slot type guy) is still a solid addition. 
 

If that’s the case, I fully expect WR to be in play in round 1 in 2025. There is no reason the bills can’t approach this with the Higgins/Chase plan the Bengals followed a few years ago. 

23 minutes ago, DJB said:

 

A fair point.
 

I do think a guy like this has the physical traits to dominate in certain circumstances. The lack of production and age has me thinking he’s worth more of a RD2 investment 

[DCOrange]

37 minutes ago, DJB said:

 

I am not a Legette guy, but those stats against the SEC are still good and dwarf some of the guys that are considered above him in the draft like Mitchell and Coleman. He was undeniably very productive this season, and importantly IMO was very productive against man coverage specifically.

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I think that not having a 3rd might push them to go D in 1st and leave wr to 60.  Not what we all might want, but if they still need a potential starter at DE (in case Von can’t return to some form), they won’t find that at 60 whereas they might still find someone who could step in and provide what Davis did at 60.

Deep draft at WR means you are getting real value at #28. If you wait till #60, that benefit is significantly diminished. It's a terrible draft at DE. The few that are truly worth a first will be long gone. (I'm not sold on Chop Robinson.) One should not conclude from that that making a rush to grab a mediocre player on DL is justified. 

 

What the loss of the third means is that the 2nd rounder is not going to be WR, unless they end up trading back from #28. 

 

 

Edited March 9 by Dr. Who

[TheBeaneBandit]

4 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Deep draft at WR means you are getting real value at #28. If you wait till #60, that benefit is significantly diminished. It's a terrible draft at DE. The few that are truly worth a first will be long gone. (I'm not sold on Chop Robinson.) One should not conclude from that that making a rush to grab a mediocre player on DL is justified. 

 

What the loss of the third means is that the 2nd rounder is not going to be WR, unless they end up trading back from #28. 

 

 

Hate to say it the Bills are gonna have to find a way to pay an Epenesa or similar player then bring in a vet minimum Shaq Lawson type. DTs will be able to be had deeper into the draft than DEs.

[OldTimer1960]

2 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

Hate to say it the Bills are gonna have to find a way to pay an Epenesa or similar player then bring in a vet minimum Shaq Lawson type. DTs will be able to be had deeper into the draft than DEs.

Later like end of the 4th?

[DCOrange]

13 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Deep draft at WR means you are getting real value at #28. If you wait till #60, that benefit is significantly diminished. It's a terrible draft at DE. The few that are truly worth a first will be long gone. (I'm not sold on Chop Robinson.) One should not conclude from that that making a rush to grab a mediocre player on DL is justified. 

 

What the loss of the third means is that the 2nd rounder is not going to be WR, unless they end up trading back from #28. 

 

 

It'll be interesting to see how the team actually feels. I personally don't think the deep WR class is about the first round personally. I know some like Kiper/Field Yates think they could tie the record for first round WRs...I'm personally not as high on them as they are. To me, there's 4 no brainer first round WRs and then there's like 10 guys that are borderline 1st/2nd round talents.

 

Most draft pundits have roughly 5 or 6 WRs in the top 32 of the big board and 4 or 5 pass rushers in the same range. It's just that once you get past the first round talents, there aren't many pass rushers left while there are a million WRs.

Edited March 9 by DCOrange

[OldTimer1960]

15 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Deep draft at WR means you are getting real value at #28. If you wait till #60, that benefit is significantly diminished. It's a terrible draft at DE. The few that are truly worth a first will be long gone. (I'm not sold on Chop Robinson.) One should not conclude from that that making a rush to grab a mediocre player on DL is justified. 

 

What the loss of the third means is that the 2nd rounder is not going to be WR, unless they end up trading back from #28. 

 

 

I understand that we are all hoping for a shiny new WR - and it IS a need, but there will be good WR prospects available at 60 and *maybe* it is better value to take a swing on Chop Robinson’s traits (if available) at 28 and then come back with someone like Polk at end of 2nd.

 

I am just speculating, not advocating for that at the moment.

Edited March 9 by OldTimer1960

[T master]

On 1/27/2024 at 3:22 PM, Ga boy said:

We should package Knox and Jackson along with our first to move into top 10 to nab a difference maker WR.

 

Can't get there with what you have listed we are to far away from the top 10 & would have to go with at least this & possibly next years 1st round picks and get rid of a good player not worth it !!! 

 

Besides Diggs was a 5th rounder and given the players BEane has gotten in later rounds what makes you think he can't find a difference maker at 28 ?

[bills6969]

Ricky Pearsall is moving up mock draft boards.  Would not surprise me if he’s at the top of beane’s WR board given the connection.

[BuffaloRebound]

3 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

It'll be interesting to see how the team actually feels. I personally don't think the deep WR class is about the first round personally. I know some like Kiper/Field Yates think they could tie the record for first round WRs...I'm personally not as high on them as they are. To me, there's 4 no brainer first round WRs and then there's like 10 guys that are borderline 1st/2nd round talents.

 

Most draft pundits have roughly 5 or 6 WRs in the top 32 of the big board and 4 or 5 pass rushers in the same range. It's just that once you get past the first round talents, there aren't many pass rushers left while there are a million WRs.

And it’s not like drafting Rousseau, Epenesa, or Basham in the late 1st and 2nd rounds has helped us get over the hump.  With this WR class, I think the way to go is trade back from 28 (maybe with a team that likes Penix or Nix) and get more bites at the apple in the top 100 picks.  In a WR and OL rich draft, it’d be nice to draft 2 each by the end of the 5th round.  

[TheBeaneBandit]

13 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Later like end of the 4th?

Idk losing that 3rd really bent us over hard. This is gonna be a tough fill out unless we see restructures by Josh, Dawkins, Diggs, Taron, etc...

[Dr. Who]

20 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

It'll be interesting to see how the team actually feels. I personally don't think the deep WR class is about the first round personally. I know some like Kiper/Field Yates think they could tie the record for first round WRs...I'm personally not as high on them as they are. To me, there's 4 no brainer first round WRs and then there's like 10 guys that are borderline 1st/2nd round talents.

 

Most draft pundits have roughly 5 or 6 WRs in the top 32 of the big board and 4 or 5 pass rushers in the same range. It's just that once you get past the first round talents, there aren't many pass rushers left while there are a million WRs.

That might be so, but if they don't go in the first, they are going to go in the top 45 or so. The best ones aren't making it to #60 most likely. And regardless, WR talent is much better than DE. There's pretty good depth at DT, though not so many 1T which is what we really need.

[Dr. Who]

21 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I understand that we are all hoping for a shiny new WR - and it IS a need, but there will be good WR prospects available at 60 and *maybe* it is better value to take a swing on Chop Robinson’s traits (if available) at 28 and then come back with someone like Polk at end of 2nd.

 

I am just speculating, not advocating for that at the moment.

Well, to each his own. I would hate it. And "shiny new" has a subtly pejorative connotation. I think you build the offense into as powerful a unit as possible when you have a generational franchise QB. The lack of relative investment in weapons for Josh Allen is borderline criminal. And as I said, I don't see a player at #28 on D that is worth that price. If I were going to pay that price, I'd rather overpay and grab Sweat. He can be a 1T next to Ed, which could pay off. I think this is a draft where you just don't bother with edge, or grab a few late flyers.

[DCOrange]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

That might be so, but if they don't go in the first, they are going to go in the top 45 or so. The best ones aren't making it to #60 most likely. And regardless, WR talent is much better than DE. There's pretty good depth at DT, though not so many 1T which is what we really need.

That's why I think my preferred option would be to trade down into the 30s or 40s. Realistically though, I do think some of the guys we're currently talking about here will be available at 60, but Beane is not the type of guy that sits back and thinks "I'll just take whoever falls to me because your guess is as good as mine on which one will be good." I personally have 13 WRs graded in the first two rounds, and that doesn't even include Malachi Corley, Xavier Legette, or Xavier Worthy (or guys like Javon Baker and Jermaine Burton that I haven't scouted). So we're talking about like 15-20 WRs that are top 2 round quality if you assume those guys are in. I very much doubt that 15-20 WRs will be taken in the first 59 picks.

 

I also don't necessarily think it has to be a pass rusher or a WR at 28. My point is moreso that I personally expect the WRs available at 28 to be borderline 1st round caliber while there will likely be higher rated prospects at other positions sitting there. Could be a defensive back, could be O-Line, DT, etc.

Edited March 9 by DCOrange

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

That's why I think my preferred option would be to trade down into the 30s or 40s. Realistically though, I do think some of the guys we're currently talking about here will be available at 60, but Beane is not the type of guy that sits back and thinks "I'll just take whoever falls to me because your guess is as good as mine on which one will be good." I personally have 13 WRs graded in the first two rounds, and that doesn't even include Malachi Corley, Xavier Legette, or Xavier Worthy (or guys like Javon Baker and Jermaine Burton that I haven't scouted). So we're talking about like 15-20 WRs that are top 2 round quality if you assume those guys are in. I very much doubt that 15-20 WRs will be taken in the first 59 picks.

You're the fella with the fancy metrics, no? I've no idea about that stuff. I'm not analytical, though that kind of thing has its place. It does look like a modest trade back might end up being the most prudent course, provided you have a trade partner to work with. If I recall correctly, very few WRs seem to merit a high pick by your criteria. Since I don't really know what constitutes your methodology, and it's not my interest or forte, I can't have a strong opinion. I see an exceptional draft at the position. 

 

I don't expect Thomas to be available. I think it would be a mistake to pass on Mitchell and Legette. I personally like McConkey, who seems to be a very polarizing player. I think Polk is the player I would want at #60 if he is there.

[NeverOutNick]

34 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

It'll be interesting to see how the team actually feels. I personally don't think the deep WR class is about the first round personally. I know some like Kiper/Field Yates think they could tie the record for first round WRs...I'm personally not as high on them as they are. To me, there's 4 no brainer first round WRs and then there's like 10 guys that are borderline 1st/2nd round talents.

 

Most draft pundits have roughly 5 or 6 WRs in the top 32 of the big board and 4 or 5 pass rushers in the same range. It's just that once you get past the first round talents, there aren't many pass rushers left while there are a million WRs.

I can get on board with this. I’m finishing up my WR scouting report rankings now but honestly after the top 4 (Odunze, Harrison, Nabers, Thomas) that will all be off the board before our pick, there are 2 WRs I really want for Buffalo, Troy Franklin and AD Mitchell. I understand they both have a couple holes in their game (Franklin concentration drops and Mitchell lack of playing hard every snap). That’s a big reason they aren’t sure fire top 15 picks and that could be a blessing for us. They also are guys that are so talented. AD Mitchell is a faster and better route running George Pickens coming out and Franklin still screams faster and taller Diggs to me. I feel unlike some of the other WRs I like later, these 2 if coached up early will be #1 WRs on our team as soon as middle of this first year. This is such an awesome WR draft class. I hope we come away with at least 2