2024 WR Draft Class

[Motorin']

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

I put together a spreadsheet of many WR metrics, including stats on their contested ball abilities.https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12pCgsJPa9X-jjNMOZ_exJTAEfxmZOeETzEm8SNkuXec/edit?usp=sharing

 

Contested catch % tends to not be very stable, so hard to tell really. For example, these guys were all 50% or higher on contested catches this season (bolded guys that are considered to have at least a remote chance of going in the 1st round):

• Rome Odunze, Washington
• Malik Washington, Virginia
• Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, Georgia
• Luke McCaffrey, Rice
• Tez Walker, North Carolina
• Tory Horton, Colorado State
• Javon Baker, Central Florida
• Jermaine Burton, Alabama
• Ainias Smith, Texas A&M
• Bryson Nesbit, North Carolina
• Ja'Lynn Polk, Washington
• Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
• Ricky Pearsall, Florida
• Dominic Lovett, Georgia
• Zakhari Franklin, Ole Miss (barely played this season, but was good at it the prior year)

But of those 14, only 3 of them even had 20+ contested targets; it's all small sample size stuff. Also of those 14, only 6 of them managed to catch 50% or higher the prior season:

• Luke McCaffrey
• Javon Baker
• Jermaine Burton
• Bryson Nesbit
• Ja'Lynn Polk
• Brian Thomas Jr.

There's also always debate about whether or not that's really something to be prioritized in the draft; it's great if they can make contested catches, but if they're being forced to make those catches in college, it's probably a sign that they'll struggle to get open in the pros. Of the 14 listed above, I would say Rosemy-Jacksaint and Luke McCaffrey should potentially be red flagged for having a high % of their targets that are contested. Tez Walker and Ja'Lynn Polk are borderline red flags IMO.

 

The consensus top 2 WRs in the class, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, were both over 50% a year ago but were in the 40s this season. Keon Coleman was over 60% a year ago but down to 33% this year. Harrison and Coleman are potential red flags for relying too much on contested targets as well. Nobody relied on contested targets more this past season than Coleman, but he was okay in this regard the year before when he played for Michigan State. Harrison has been in the orange both of the last two years (red being bad, green good, yellow neutral).

 

I like Tory Horton a lot, I think he decided to return to college for one more year. 

 

Also like Polk. Both of those guys probably end up with 2nd round grades. 

 

I think there's going to be an abnormal number wr's with 2nd and 3rd round grades this year. 

[Doc]

16 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Thanks! Well done. It feels like Coleman is right around the skill set the Bills are looking for and who’ll be there when we pick…..but I’m far from an expert on the topic. 

 

Not early, with that speed.

[DCOrange]

1 minute ago, Motorin' said:

 

I like Tory Horton a lot, I think he decided to return to college for one more year. 

 

Also like Polk. Both of those guys probably end up with 2nd round grades. 

 

I think there's going to be an abnormal number wr's with 2nd and 3rd round grades this year. 

You're right. I had written that down in my scouting notes but didn't do anything with the notes yet so he ended up remaining in my spreadsheet.

[Motorin']

Just now, DCOrange said:

You're right. I had written that down in my scouting notes but didn't do anything with the notes yet so he ended up remaining in my spreadsheet.

 

I was really expecting him to enter the draft. Think he'd be a great fit in our offense. 

[SoCal Deek]

2 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Not early, with that speed.

Note that I didn’t say First Round. I’m very much NOT of the mindset that a deep burner is what we need. There are way more possession type catches in the NFL then there will ever be home run long shots. 

[BillsShredder83]

23 hours ago, wppete said:

Agree. But is Thomas Jr. is also there I think he would be a better fit. But either of these guys would be a home run for us. 

You guys aren't scared he's too Gabe Davis like? Either making big plays or disappearing?

 

Give me ol steady Troy Franklin all day. I want a balanced receiver thar josh can count on getting the ball to several times a game, every game.

 

Thomas is more of a finisher when your wr room is already stocked IMO

[DCOrange]

Just now, SoCal Deek said:

Note that I didn’t say First Round. I’m very much NOT of the mindset that a deep burner is what we need. There are way more possession type catches in the NFL then there will ever be home run long shots. 

I think ideally we kill two birds with one stone and get a wide out that can win with speed with one pick, but if we simply get a good wide out and then double dip later to add more of a speed element, that probably works for me too.

1 minute ago, BillsShredder83 said:

You guys aren't scared he's too Gabe Davis like? Either making big plays or disappearing?

 

Give me ol steady Troy Franklin all day. I want a balanced receiver thar josh can count on getting the ball to several times a game, every game.

 

Thomas is more of a finisher when your wr room is already stocked IMO

I think Thomas' ability to beat press coverage will make him a far more consistent threat than someone like Gabe. I suspect that with his press abilities and in general the way he's able to separate with speed, he'll at minimum be very tough to deal with on vertical routes and crossers. If he can expand beyond that, even better. But the press beaters are his trump card that make him my #1 target assuming we don't make a massive trade up.

 

I've also heard that when Nabers sat out the bowl game, Thomas showed a much more diverse skill set than what he showed most of the season, but I admittedly have not watched yet.

[Rubes]

Can't wait to see this place when Beane goes with a CB at 28...

 

[BillsShredder83]

23 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

Good post. The only move ups that I think make sense are putting 6-7 round picks together to get another 5. Rounds 1-5 are where the moneys at, so try to get as many of these as you can. 
 

And yes, I  know Benford was a 6th round pick. But what other 6-7 round picks have the Bills made that were quality starters for the Bills in the last 5 years?

Dane and despite the blowback this gets Hamlin. 6th and 7th, but overall I agree with the points

[Warcodered]

7 minutes ago, Rubes said:

Can't wait to see this place when Beane goes with a CB at 28...

 

Can't wait when he goes WR and next draft where it's some other offensive position it seems we need and we hear the exact same BS from people.

[BillsShredder83]

20 hours ago, BBFL said:

I get that. Which is exactly why I’m liking it. We struggled with the deep passes being consistent in our offense this season. 

Deep passes and consistent don't go together very often.

 

Remember the lovely intermediate routes josh was feasting on in 2020. With Stef and smoke and gabe. *That* was consistent and repeatable. Troy Franklin is my guy for that!!!

[BillsShredder83]

34 minutes ago, boyst said:

Kelvin Benjafat

Lol, this entertained me way more than it should 😆😆😆

[Ga boy]

2 hours ago, DCOrange said:

I put together a spreadsheet of many WR metrics, including stats on their contested ball abilities.https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12pCgsJPa9X-jjNMOZ_exJTAEfxmZOeETzEm8SNkuXec/edit?usp=sharing

 

Contested catch % tends to not be very stable, so hard to tell really. For example, these guys were all 50% or higher on contested catches this season (bolded guys that are considered to have at least a remote chance of going in the 1st round):

• Rome Odunze, Washington
• Malik Washington, Virginia
• Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, Georgia
• Luke McCaffrey, Rice
• Tez Walker, North Carolina
• Tory Horton, Colorado State
• Javon Baker, Central Florida
• Jermaine Burton, Alabama
• Ainias Smith, Texas A&M
• Bryson Nesbit, North Carolina
• Ja'Lynn Polk, Washington
• Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
• Ricky Pearsall, Florida
• Dominic Lovett, Georgia
• Zakhari Franklin, Ole Miss (barely played this season, but was good at it the prior year)

But of those 14, only 3 of them even had 20+ contested targets; it's all small sample size stuff. Also of those 14, only 6 of them managed to catch 50% or higher the prior season:

• Luke McCaffrey
• Javon Baker
• Jermaine Burton
• Bryson Nesbit
• Ja'Lynn Polk
• Brian Thomas Jr.

There's also always debate about whether or not that's really something to be prioritized in the draft; it's great if they can make contested catches, but if they're being forced to make those catches in college, it's probably a sign that they'll struggle to get open in the pros. Of the 14 listed above, I would say Rosemy-Jacksaint and Luke McCaffrey should potentially be red flagged for having a high % of their targets that are contested. Tez Walker and Ja'Lynn Polk are borderline red flags IMO.

 

The consensus top 2 WRs in the class, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, were both over 50% a year ago but were in the 40s this season. Keon Coleman was over 60% a year ago but down to 33% this year. Harrison and Coleman are potential red flags for relying too much on contested targets as well. Nobody relied on contested targets more this past season than Coleman, but he was okay in this regard the year before when he played for Michigan State. Harrison has been in the orange both of the last two years (red being bad, green good, yellow neutral).

Why is it bad to rely on contested targets (re- Keon)?

[DCOrange]

Just now, Ga boy said:

Why is it bad to rely on contested targets (re- Keon)?

The theory is if you can't create separation against college athletes, it probably won't go very well for you against NFL athletes. Having said that, you can only learn so much from metrics. It's possible that Keon is creating separation but the passes allow DBs to recover and turn it into contested situations. And if you're simply awesome at winning those contested balls, the QB is probably more likely to give you more contested opportunities because he trusts you to go up and get it. Having said that, if you add up the numbers from the last two years, Keon's catch % on contested targets is pretty mediocre too, so at least based on the metrics, you're left with a guy that relies on contested opportunities to make an impact and also isn't particularly great at catching them.

[Ga boy]

1 minute ago, DCOrange said:

The theory is if you can't create separation against college athletes, it probably won't go very well for you against NFL athletes. Having said that, you can only learn so much from metrics. It's possible that Keon is creating separation but the passes allow DBs to recover and turn it into contested situations. And if you're simply awesome at winning those contested balls, the QB is probably more likely to give you more contested opportunities because he trusts you to go up and get it. Having said that, if you add up the numbers from the last two years, Keon's catch % on contested targets is pretty mediocre too, so at least based on the metrics, you're left with a guy that relies on contested opportunities to make an impact and also isn't particularly great at catching them.

Great explanation.  He looks like he plays with attitude like Moss and TO and Diggs.  If we don’t trade up to get one of those green guys, I think Keon is ready to play.

[Mat68]

For these 6’4 plus guys the combine is going to separate them.  Who is a 4.6 who is low 4.5.  Mike Evans vs Kelvin Benjamin.  Also, with new rules the wr size isnt as big of a deal.  Devonte Smith and Tank Dell are fine.  If Worthy run 4.3 his speed and separation translates better then the big guys 50/50 ability. I would like to see Buffalo double dip at Wr.  One early and one in the middle rounds.  

Edited January 29 by Mat68

[BillsShredder83]

16 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

The theory is if you can't create separation against college athletes, it probably won't go very well for you against NFL athletes. Having said that, you can only learn so much from metrics. It's possible that Keon is creating separation but the passes allow DBs to recover and turn it into contested situations. And if you're simply awesome at winning those contested balls, the QB is probably more likely to give you more contested opportunities because he trusts you to go up and get it. Having said that, if you add up the numbers from the last two years, Keon's catch % on contested targets is pretty mediocre too, so at least based on the metrics, you're left with a guy that relies on contested opportunities to make an impact and also isn't particularly great at catching them.

 

 

1 hour ago, Motorin' said:

But of those 14, only 3 of them even had 20+ contested targets; it's all small sample size stuff. Also of those 14, only 6 of them managed to catch 50% or higher the prior season:

the fact that in your chart only 3 had 20+ contested TARGETS, really tells a story..... only 20 targets that aline with someone's strongest skill set, is not enough to depend on. great for redzone, but not a guy that really has any chance at being a #1 WR down the road. 

 

there are plenty of WRs whos best skill set leads to getting separation, these guys see 80-120+ targets for doing this.  jump ball guy is too niche of a skill for my liking in the first round

30 minutes ago, Ga boy said:

Why is it bad to rely on contested targets (re- Keon)?

good question bro.  honestly he disappeared in far too many games for my liking as well.... now if he slides down the board, id be a lot more interested later on

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

 

 

the fact that in your chart only 3 had 20+ contested TARGETS, really tells a story..... only 20 targets that aline with someone's strongest skill set, is not enough to depend on. great for redzone, but not a guy that really has any chance at being a #1 WR down the road. 

 

there are plenty of WRs whos best skill set leads to getting separation, these guys see 80-120+ targets for doing this.  jump ball guy is too niche of a skill for my liking in the first round

 

100% agree with this. 

1 hour ago, BillsShredder83 said:

You guys aren't scared he's too Gabe Davis like? Either making big plays or disappearing?

 

 

I am. Definitely. I mean he is better than Gabe, and faster than Gabe, and more explosive than Gabe. But he can basically run the same three routes as Gabe. I think that is fine if Diggs can get back to being Diggs. If you get a better version of Gabe Davis we have already seen that 1-2 punch can work - especially with Kincaid and Shakir developing in supporting roles. My worry is if Diggs can't get back to his best and your next guy is just a better version of Gabe.... they you are in trouble. Because I think you become predictable. 

[SoCal Deek]

You get a tall, big bodied WR and you use him as your first down safety blanket for your tall, big bodied QB. The kid runs out five yards, turns around and Josh tosses it up high, where the kid comes down with it like a rebound. Move the chains, over and over again. 

[DCOrange]

17 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

You get a tall, big bodied WR and you use him as your first down safety blanket for your tall, big bodied QB. The kid runs out five yards, turns around and Josh tosses it up high, where the kid comes down with it like a rebound. Move the chains, over and over again. 

I don't think size is really necessary for this kind of thing. This is precisely the type of stuff Kincaid was consistently successful doing. If anything, you probably want to prioritize quickness over size for this kind of thing IMO so that the WR can start/stop and create good separation and then Allen can throw it low and away from the defender.