2024 WR Draft Class

[KOKBILLS]

5 hours ago, DJB said:

I keep saying it over and over again in this thread. A Mitchell

 

Now I prefer Thomas and Franklin but I really think Mitchell could be the guy 

 

Daniel Jeremiah has him ranked ahead of Franklin (and Coleman)... I'm not going to forget how high he was on Kincaid last year. I'm paying a little more attention to his WR takes now. 

[BillsFanForever19]

2 hours ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

Daniel Jeremiah has him ranked ahead of Franklin (and Coleman)... I'm not going to forget how high he was on Kincaid last year. I'm paying a little more attention to his WR takes now. 

 

Everyone agrees that Harrison Jr., Nabers, and Odunze are the top 3 guys. Pretty much everyone agrees Thomas Jr. is the 4th. 

 

But after that, literally everyone has a different opinion of the next guy. One guy will say it's Franklin. The next guy won't even Franklin have in the Top 10 WR's off the board. One guy will say Xavier Legette and the next guy will say he's a Day 3 guy. Someone will say it's Adonai Mitchell and then I'll look at another list and not find his name on Page 1.

 

It's an absolute logjam mess after the first 4. Which goes to show the depth of talent in this years class. I don't think we'll have a clearer picture of the rankings until after the Combine and Pro Day's and when people start hearing whispers from league circles.

 

Right now, I'm just looking at the prototypes when it comes to an Outside WR (as Beane always looks for specimen athletes), eliminating players I don't think are a fit for what we're looking for, and letting my eyes judge what I see. As it gets closer, I'll pay more attention to what the prognosticators are prognosticating.

Edited February 28 by BillsFanForever19

[Solomon Grundy]

6 hours ago, DJB said:

I keep saying it over and over again in this thread. A Mitchell

 

Now I prefer Thomas and Franklin but I really think Mitchell could be the guy 

Mitchell game is similar to Diggs, IMO. The Bills still need "Smoke Brown" or "Metcalf"

[The Jokeman]

3 hours ago, BBFL said:

Do you think if he tests well he goes into the Franklin/Ladd/Worthy grouping?

I'd rank them as Franklin/Worthy/Walker/Ladd. 

2 hours ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

Daniel Jeremiah has him ranked ahead of Franklin (and Coleman)... I'm not going to forget how high he was on Kincaid last year. I'm paying a little more attention to his WR takes now. 

DJ to me the best talent evaluators of the talking heads, I also like Joel Klatt.

[JaCrispy]

2 hours ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

Daniel Jeremiah has him ranked ahead of Franklin (and Coleman)... I'm not going to forget how high he was on Kincaid last year. I'm paying a little more attention to his WR takes now. 

I wish AD Mitchell was faster…

 

In his highlights, it looks like he’s got cement in his shoes…

 

Puff puff pass 👎

 

This team is desperate for SPEED!

 

Franklin, Worthy or Thomas please! 👍

 

 

Edited February 28 by JaCrispy

[BillsFanForever19]

8 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

I wish AD Mitchell was faster…

 

In his highlights, it looks like he’s got cement in his shoes…

 

Puff puff pass 👎

 

This team is desperate for SPEED!

 

Franklin, Worthy or Thomas please! 👍

 

 

[Nihilarian]

On 2/27/2024 at 1:18 AM, Richard Noggin said:

Okay, awesome, but what about the salary cap? Where does Monsieur Evans' money come from? Is it Morse? Poyer? White? 2/3? I'm willing to be talked into it tbh

All I'm saying is this team needs an experienced top WR to replace/help Diggs...somehow, some way. If they had that WR against the Chiefs they would have won that game hands down.  If they had managed to sign D-hop things would have been much different this season in my view. Perhaps that would have taken some heat off of Diggs and he would have done better.

 

Diggs had 8 targets for 3 receptions for 21 yards in that playoff game. Oh, one fumble too. Sound like someone who is making 18.5, per?

[BillsFanForever19]

3 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

All I'm saying is this team needs an experienced top WR to replace/help Diggs...somehow, some way. If they had that WR against the Chiefs they would have won that game hands down.  If they had managed to sign D-hop things would have been much different this season in my view. Perhaps that would have taken some heat off of Diggs and he would have done better.

 

Diggs had 8 targets for 3 receptions for 21 yards in that playoff game. Oh, one fumble too. Sound like someone who is making 18.5, per?

 

We simply cannot afford to do that this season. The cap can be finessed. But in the situation we're in, both with where we are financially and roster wise, it can't be finessed THAT much.

 

The stud veteran difference makers are going to be Franchised (Higgins already has been and Pittman most likely will be) and Mike Evans is going to be an all out bidding war amongst the teams with large amounts of space, costing probably over 100m with the Cap jump. Guys like Odell Beckham Jr. or Marquise Brown are much more likely, but they're probably going to be overpaid and out of our range too.

 

We have 22 FA's that we need to re-sign or replace. FIVE starters and important rotational or depth pieces. We're 37.5m over the Cap. And the Draft is only going to yield 2 starters. So unfortunately, we can't afford to pay extravagantly for a guy like Evans and field a full roster.

 

The best we can do is provide Diggs with help. He's not going anywhere. Beane said today he's not doing anything where he's paying large amounts of Dead Caps for anyone. His money is guaranteed so we're paying that regardless of whether he's here or not. He's going to be here.

 

And when it comes to that help, veteran wise we're looking at guys like Curtis Samuel, Darnell Mooney, DJ Chark, Josh Reynolds, Kendrick Bourne, and Noah Brown representing the top of what we can afford in FA. Even a couple of them will probably cost more than we're willing to pay.

 

The best we can do with what's available to us is get one of those guys and then Draft a guy in Round 1, doubling down later and hoping we find a Benford to Elam type at WR later.

Edited February 28 by BillsFanForever19

[DJB]

The problem with Legette is that he’s as old as dirt. Guys that breakout late usually don’t have much NFL success. 
 

 

[BillsFanForever19]

4 minutes ago, DJB said:

The problem with Legette is that he’s as old as dirt. Guys that breakout late usually don’t have much NFL success. 

 

If being 23 is old as dirt, I don't want to know what that makes me 😆

 

He spent 5 years in College, so he's 1 year older than your average Senior coming out. 

 

I don't know. It makes him 1 year older and he'll be 28 when his Rookie deal is up instead of 26 or 27. But I don't see it having a massive barring on whether or not he can be a success in the NFL just because he's 23 instead of 21 or 22. 

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, DJB said:

The problem with Legette is that he’s as old as dirt. Guys that breakout late usually don’t have much NFL success. 
 

 

That is definitely a legit concern. 23 and one year of production. Those guys do not have a great track record. But equally I am not sure there is a proven causal link that says they never can - and indeed @DCOrange's list has a couple of guys in Jennings and McLaurin who have been really good NFL receivers - so you have to pick a guy like that with your eyes open to the risks but still judge them on their merits. 

[BillsFanForever19]

22 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

While this could be the case, I have not heard him specify that. He did mention wanting explosive speed and a guy who can turn a 5 yard pass into a 55 yard TD.

 

Don’t worry though! I got us both in my 1 mock of the day😎

 

Okay, so I did get a chance to sit down and watch Beane's presser.

 

And just as I expected and mentioned - it was a matter of Sal Capaccio specifically asking Beane about "explosive players". Just like he specifically asked McDermott. He's the one who's really pushing the narrative, Beane and McDermott are just answering the question - not so much banging the table there themselves.

 

To that end, the conversation went as such:

 

Quote

Sal: Let's talk about "explosive plays". Adding explosive players, maybe if you want to put it that way. But needing more explosive plays - do you feel that, after the evaluation process, that's something your team needs to address a little bit in the Offseason?

 

Beane: Yeah, I mean Sal, we're always looking for that speed and explosiveness at various positions. RB, TE, WR - whatever it is. You want guys that can explode without the ball. But you also want RAC players. Guys that Josh can get the ball in their hands in space, stuff that Joe Brady can scheme up, and they can turn a 5 yard pass into a 55 yard TD or a big gain. So those shorten your drives. We get a lot of that 2 high shell and teams are gonna make us go 9, 10, 11 plays. So anytime you can add a weapon that's an explosive player - that can shorten it. Which, again, the less plays it takes - sometimes you want to control the clock, but sometimes you don't want to have to go 10 plus plays every single time to get points.

 

So that's what he said when he was specifically asked about "explosive players". Later in a conversation with Mike Catalana, he was asked what he looks for in a WR and his answer was different:

 

Quote

Mike: Is there a specific skill for the WR position that is a MUST for you? Whether it's a 5'9" Steve Smith or a 6'4" Mike Evans type player - what skill just stands out head and shoulders to you that you have to have?

 

Beane: Yeah, I would say hands and route running and feel, instincts - I know I gave you more than one. But I weigh those things more than their size or speed. Obviously, you're not looking for a slug that's gonna run a 4.68 or anything like that. But there are plenty of guys who weren't 4.38 that were really good Receivers. And there's been guys that run 4.3 that SUCKED as Receivers because they just didn't have those, innate, how to play the position (things). The feel. The route tree. How to sit in a hole in zone coverage or run their routes to the right depths. All those things matter because Josh is battling whatever the rush is and he's gotta know when he hits his back step that they're going to be where they're supposed to be.

 

So long story short, reading quotes in tweets from Beane or McDermott don't take into account whether they themselves brought these things up impromptu, or they were brought up specifically by others and they're replying to them. With the "explosive" thing you keep hanging your hat on, that's one guy constantly asking them and they're replying to it.

 

When asked what he really looks for, it wasn't even mentioned. That's not to say it isn't important - but it's not the be all end all you're reading into it to be. There's much more he's looking for than just speed and Sal's favorite buzz word, explosiveness.

 

I don't think he's just looking for speed or that he's just looking for size - I think he's looking for both in a guy that has great hands and a great feel for the position.

Edited February 28 by BillsFanForever19

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Okay, so I did get a chance to sit down and watch Beane's presser.

 

 

I've just watched it too and I agree with you. They are not looking for a the best explosive receiver. They are going to look for the best receiver taking everything into account. I don't think it is one thing above all others. They are going to evaluate it in the round and take the guy they think is the best. 

[Warriorspikes51]

12 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Right now, I'm just looking at the prototypes when it comes to an Outside WR (as Beane always looks for specimen athletes), eliminating players I don't think are a fit for what we're looking for, and letting my eyes judge what I see. As it gets closer, I'll pay more attention to what the prognosticators are prognosticating.

Here you go. BOOM.  For real though, the first 2 Rounds would be massive 

 

Edited February 28 by Warriorspikes51

[mrags]

17 hours ago, DJB said:

I keep saying it over and over again in this thread. A Mitchell

 

Now I prefer Thomas and Franklin but I really think Mitchell could be the guy 

I’m a huge fan of him. And honestly. I reallllllly like Franklin. But his weight scares me. I’m done thinking that every guy can come in and gain some muscle or lose some weight, etc. just assume he is what he is and don’t expect it to change. With that said Franklin is a stud, but just like smaller/thinner guys, if he can’t stay in the field what good is he. Because of that I’m not saying I’d put Mitchell over Franklin, but if he was the pick of the 2 (assuming both available) I don’t think I’d have any issue. 

[Warriorspikes51]

7 minutes ago, mrags said:

I’m a huge fan of him. And honestly. I reallllllly like Franklin. But his weight scares me. I’m done thinking that every guy can come in and gain some muscle or lose some weight, etc. just assume he is what he is and don’t expect it to change. With that said Franklin is a stud, but just like smaller/thinner guys, if he can’t stay in the field what good is he. Because of that I’m not saying I’d put Mitchell over Franklin, but if he was the pick of the 2 (assuming both available) I don’t think I’d have any issue. 

How much did Jefferson weigh when he was drafted?  He’s 6’1 and listed at 203.  He looks thinner to me and is a little slower thank Franklin

 

I really like AD Mitchell as well.  He seems like a pro ready player who has very good route running and contested catch skills.  Will be interesting to see his 40 time. He’s made big plays in big games.  Is 6’4 and can add to his frame. Would like to see more YAC from him though

[mrags]

14 hours ago, BBFL said:

Do you think if he tests well he goes into the Franklin/Ladd/Worthy grouping?

 

14 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I think Walker will be available at 60.  He didn’t do himself any favors Senior bowl week.

This is where I’m at. Although he didn’t do well at the senior bowl. He has pro days and the combine to loft himself up. He will be talked about as one of the best physically gifted athletes there. Mark it blood. After that, we’ll see where he’s being mocked. I don’t think he gets in with Franklin, Coleman, Mitchell, and Thomas. But he’ll get in there with the top of the 3rd group of Worthy, McConkey, Corley, Polk, Wilson, Legette

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, mrags said:

 

This is where I’m at. Although he didn’t do well at the senior bowl. He has pro days and the combine to loft himself up. He will be talked about as one of the best physically gifted athletes there. Mark it blood. After that, we’ll see where he’s being mocked. I don’t think he gets in with Franklin, Coleman, Mitchell, and Thomas. But he’ll get in there with the top of the 3rd group of Worthy, McConkey, Corley, Polk, Wilson, Legette

 

I think Tez will go round 3 at the earliest. 

[mrags]

8 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

How much did Jefferson weigh when he was drafted?  He’s 6’1 and listed at 203.  He looks thinner to me and is a little slower thank Franklin

 

I really like AD Mitchell as well.  He seems like a pro ready player who has very good route running and contested catch skills.  Will be interesting to see his 40 time. He’s made big plays in big games.  Is 6’4 and can add to his frame. Would like to see more YAC from him though

According to NFL his combine weight was 202. Overall, I’d say that JJ and TF look very similar. And IF…. He can manage to put on 15-20lb of muscle it would be great. I just don’t have faith in these guys being able to do that anymore. It’s not like the days of old where a guy just got away with being really good or just a ball player in college and got serious when they got to the pros. A lot of the big time colleges (like LSU, or Oregon for example) have just as strict guidelines, and workout routines as the NFL does. I just don’t expect it to be a thing. A lot of these guys are what they are. Again, that doesn’t mean I dislike Franklin at all. I like him more than anyone not named MHJ, Nabors, Odunze. And he’s in the same conversation with about 2-3 other guys. I would just always worry he is too thin and will get hurt often. 
 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/justin-jefferson/32004a45-4626-9287-c454-479b942cbd26

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Tez will go round 3 at the earliest. 

I generally think you’re right. But if his combine is through the roof, you may see that change to the 2nd. 

[DCOrange]

I decided to revisit a few WRs (and am planning to take a look at Isaiah Williams and Jacob Cowing, but they both seem to be slot guys) as more All 22 film was added to the catalog. Only through Xavier Worthy so far. I really wanted to take another look at him because I was a ton lower than consensus on him. On my revisit, I do think I was probably a bit harsh/not giving him enough credit for his speed and deceleration. While I think he needs refinement, he is physically capable of running a more varied route tree than most of the class. Having said that, I still think between how physically weak he is, how susceptible he is to being pushed around, and how poor his effort level is, there's a lot of red flags. I also don't think he's as dynamic after the catch as I hoped given his athleticism; his contact balance and elusiveness don't stand out. Lastly, if Buffalo wants to replace Gabe with another WR that can be on the field at all times due to his blocking ability, Worthy simply shouldn't be a consideration. He's more likely to help the defense tackle the RB than to actually deter them in any way.

 

As I said, I do think I shortchanged the physical traits. I've bumped his film grade up to a late 4th round grade, which combined with his metrics results in an early 4th round grade. While this is definitely an improvement, it feels like he'll still be drafted far earlier than I'd personally be comfortable with.