2024 WR Draft Class

[BillsFanForever19]

3 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Everyone seems to be so excited to draft a WR or two and yet from what I've seen over the years very rarely does a rookie WR make a huge impact. Yes, there have been some recently Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua. 

 

I'd rather see the Bills obtain a top veteran WR like Mike Evans.  Josh Needs deep-speed help now. 

 

I'd love Chris Jones too. Or a Trade for Davante Adams. But much like Mike Evans, It's not going to happen.

 

On top of of WR2, we need Starters at DE, DT (of which Ed Oliver is the ONLY DT we have under contract), and Safety (most likely both as it seems reading between the lines of McD's pressers Poyer will prob be cut). Plus a myriad of bodies to fill out the roster with 20+ FA's.

 

We're 37.5m over the cap. Mike Evans estimated contract is a 4 year $100m deal. Even if we push a lot of that contract off, Year 1 is going to cost way too much money for the position we're in.

 

We're going to re-sign some guys and we're going to sign some guys. But we can't afford to pay handsomely for any top FA this season. It's going to be middle tier to bargain guys across the board. Much like last season.

 

That's why everyone's looking at Round 1. WR is one of the most expensive positions in Football. There's a much better chance of getting a real difference maker in Round 1 than from the type of FA that we can afford.

 

We'll still sign someone to go along with them. But it'll be someone more like Noah Brown or Josh Reynolds than Mike Evans.

Edited February 27 by BillsFanForever19

[BillsFanForever19]

5 hours ago, Turk71 said:

Doesn't seem like that would be a real possibility....but we can dream.

 

Welcome to the world of WarriorSpikes51 😆

[GunnerBill]

13 hours ago, DCOrange said:

I've mentioned a few times throughout this thread already...I feel like @GunnerBill and I generally see prospects the same way but Legette is one that we've really diverged on. I know he likes Legette a lot. I don't hate him or anything but I see him as more of a 3rd rounder than a 1st personally. I tend to shy away from older prospects and prospects that took a long time to figure it out in college and Legette checks both of those boxes. Among the 19 WR prospects I've scouted so far this year (which is basically all of the top guys in the class with a couple exceptions), Legette is the 2nd oldest as he's already 23 years old. If you expand it out to all of the guys that PFF considers to be draftable, his age doesn't look as bad because a lot of the late round guys this year are very old, but point being, he's older than I like in an early round pick. On top of that, he almost literally did not do anything at the college level until his 5th season; this is a big no no for me and historically speaking, it's very rare to find a WR with a breakout age as high as Legette's that went on to have any success in the NFL. To me, Legette is a bit of a project in that he's big, strong, and fast but is pretty unpolished right now as a player and I'm just not super interested in that mold of prospect when they're relatively very old. It feels like a very low percentage play and I'd just rather let another team take that chance personally.

 

Having said all that...

 

 

 

And to add to what @DCOrange says above - I completely agree with him that the age and single year of college production are legit "flags" on Legette's profile. I agree that the track record of guys with that profile coming into the NFL is not stellar.

 

But I think his 2023 film is very good and it is very good despite him being a one man offense. There was nobody else among the passing game weapons at South Carolina who will even play on Sundays. Teams were focussed on trying to take Legette away, especially by mid-season - the Florida game stood out to me.... it was almost as if the defenses were only playing Legette and he still had a big day. That is where to me he is just more impressive than some of other guys in the 2nd/3rd tier of this class - he had to stand up week after week and make the plays and be the alpha. Sure the two Texas kids have their merits but they also helped one another. Brian Thomas's production was definitely helped by Malik Nabers playing opposite him, Polk was opposite Odunze and even Franklin had Tez Johnson who has a chance to be a day 2 type pick next year to pick up some slack.  

 

I am not surprised Todd McShay is describing him as a polarizing prospect. I think he will be exactly that. I think he will likely go in the first half of round 2, that is my prediction. There will be some teams that wouldn't touch him until round 3, I suspect that is right, but it only takes 1 to like him enough to go early and I think there will be. But honestly tape grade he is my WR4, I have him Franklin and Thomas basically in a muddle with late 1st and borderline 1st/2nd type grades and if Legette were to disappoint at the combine I could flip that some... I think he is a player who needs to perform well this week. He will still be in that little cluster for me but those 3 guys are close enough on tape to my eye that the testing profile will matter some to the order they end up in. 

[BillsFanForever19]

13 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Sean today at Combine Presser specifically referenced explosive plays on offense. The importance of deep plays and YAC on short plays.

 

To be fair, he didn't go out of his way and "specifically reference" it himself.

 

He was specifically *asked* about it. And he replied to it with a kind of a bland, matter of fact manner about Offensive philosophy.

 

Here's the whole question and answer:

 

Quote

Sal: I know at the end of the year, Brandon both talked about "explosive plays". I know you talked about some data that suggested explosive plays on drives for acquistions. Now the evaluation process has been ongoing - are you still in the mindset that that's an area you'd kind of like to focus on and improve at least?

 

McDermott: Offensively with explosive plays?

 

Sal: Yeah

 

McDermott: Yeah, I think you've got to get the ball thrown down the field or you've got to complete it short and then have it run down the field. Whether it be a RAC or throwing the ball down the field and completing it on deeper passes. So, you know the games changing a little bit too, with Defenses going to more split Safety looks and more Zone vs. Man. So it's kind of forcing Quarterbacks or Offenses to be a little more patient at times. So the value of RAC is important then, right? If you're gonna throw it short, you better be able to take it from 5 to 15 or to 50. And I think that's an important piece as well.

 

I got the feeling from your post that he was tipping his hand on what he was specifically looking for and that's not really what I took out of it watching the Presser.

Edited February 27 by BillsFanForever19

[DJB]

17 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

To be fair, he didn't go out of his way and "specifically reference" it himself.

 

He was specifically *asked* about it. And he replied to it with a kind of a bland, matter of fact manner about Offensive philosophy.

 

Here's the whole question and answer:

 

 

I got the feeling from your post that he was tipping his hand on what he was specifically looking for and that's not really what I took out of it watching the Presser.

Dammit that McDermott quote tells me we are drafting another DL 😭😭😭😭

[Mat68]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And to add to what @DCOrange says above - I completely agree with him that the age and single year of college production are legit "flags" on Legette's profile. I agree that the track record of guys with that profile coming into the NFL is not stellar.

 

But I think his 2023 film is very good and it is very good despite him being a one man offense. There was nobody else among the passing game weapons at South Carolina who will even play on Sundays. Teams were focussed on trying to take Legette away, especially by mid-season - the Florida game stood out to me.... it was almost as if the defenses were only playing Legette and he still had a big day. That is where to me he is just more impressive than some of other guys in the 2nd/3rd tier of this class - he had to stand up week after week and make the plays and be the alpha. Sure the two Texas kids have their merits but they also helped one another. Brian Thomas's production was definitely helped by Malik Nabers playing opposite him, Polk was opposite Odunze and even Franklin had Tez Johnson who has a chance to be a day 2 type pick next year to pick up some slack.  

 

I am not surprised Todd McShay is describing him as a polarizing prospect. I think he will be exactly that. I think he will likely go in the first half of round 2, that is my prediction. There will be some teams that wouldn't touch him until round 3, I suspect that is right, but it only takes 1 to like him enough to go early and I think there will be. But honestly tape grade he is my WR4, I have him Franklin and Thomas basically in a muddle with late 1st and borderline 1st/2nd type grades and if Legette were to disappoint at the combine I could flip that some... I think he is a player who needs to perform well this week. He will still be in that little cluster for me but those 3 guys are close enough on tape to my eye that the testing profile will matter some to the order they end up in. 

Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase were on the same team in college.  Talent is talent.  Nabers and Thomas Jr are both top 20 wrs.  Too smooth and athletic not to be.  The combine with help separate the guys outside the top few tiers.  I expect Franklin and Worth blaze.  Lets see the bigger guys move Mitchell Coleman and Legette.    
 

 

[Nihilarian]

5 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I'd love Chris Jones too. Or a Trade for Davante Adams. But much like Mike Evans, It's not going to happen.

 

On top of of WR2, we need Starters at DE, DT (of which Ed Oliver is the ONLY DT we have under contract), and Safety (most likely both as it seems reading between the lines of McD's pressers Poyer will prob be cut). Plus a myriad of bodies to fill out the roster with 20+ FA's.

 

We're 37.5m over the cap. Mike Evans estimated contract is a 4 year $100m deal. Even if we push a lot of that contract off, Year 1 is going to cost way too much money for the position we're in.

 

We're going to re-sign some guys and we're going to sign some guys. But we can't afford to pay handsomely for any top FA this season. It's going to be middle tier to bargain guys across the board. Much like last season.

 

That's why everyone's looking at Round 1. WR is one of the most expensive positions in Football. There's a much better chance of getting a real difference maker in Round 1 than from the type of FA that we can afford.

 

We'll still sign someone to go along with them. But it'll be someone more like Noah Brown or Josh Reynolds than Mike Evans.

My take in looking at the end of the last two seasons the Bills need a new WR ONE! Diggs isn't cutting it in the playoffs...period!  That Chiefs game 7 targets 3 catches for 21 yards is downright pathetic for a so-called #1. And yeah, Evans would only be a temp player till the rookies develop. But Josh needs help ASAP! 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase were on the same team in college.  Talent is talent.  Nabers and Thomas Jr are both top 20 wrs.  Too smooth and athletic not to be.  The combine with help separate the guys outside the top few tiers.  I expect Franklin and Worth blaze.  Lets see the bigger guys move Mitchell Coleman and Legette.    
 

 

I wasn't saying talent isn't talent. That wasn't really my point, it was that one of the impressive things about Legette is that he beats teams even when they are selling out to stop him. I wasn't diminishing the other guys, I was saying it is something that impresses me about Legette. 

 

Although I am lower on Thomas than you. I think he is in the mix with the second tier guys not close to the top tier guys. He could go in the top 20 I think - late teens to late 20s is his range. But if I'm a team after a long term #1 I wonder whether he can do enough. 

[DCOrange]

Re: the discussion of age and more specifically breakout age, Xavier Legette's breakout age is probably going to end up being 22.6 based on my own math (but PlayerProfiler.com is really the one place that everyone cites for this and they don't have a breakout age for him listed yet). Players that were drafted in the first 3 rounds with a breakout age of 22.0 or older (roughly dating back to 2007 where PlayerProfiler starts not having some of the players in the database):

Player	Year	Pick	BO Age
Anthony Gonzalez	2007	32	22.0
Greg Jennings	2006	52	22.0
Devin Duvernay	2020	92	22.0
Terrance Williams	2013	74	22.0
Harry Douglas	2008	84	22.0
Van Jefferson	2020	57	22.1
TJ Graham	2012	69	22.1
Danny Gray	2022	105	22.4
Andre Caldwell	2008	97	22.4
Kelvin Benjamin	2014	28	22.6
Jalen Hurd	2019	67	22.6
ArDarius Stewart	2017	79	22.7
Javon Walker	2002	20	22.9
Velus Jones	2022	71	24.3
Henry Ruggs	2020	12	Never
Mecole Hardman	2019	56	Never
Devin Hester	2006	57	Never
Tre Tucker	2023	100	Never
Terry McLaurin	2019	76	Never
Marquise Goodwin	2013	78	Never

 

It's not exactly a list that inspires confidence. I believe as breakout ages are posted by PlayerProfiler, this will apply to Ricky Pearsall as well who I expect to be around a 22.0.

[gonzo1105]

Yea after breaking down the WR class it definitely a deep one for sure. Just going off of the tape my top 5 pre combine is:

 

1. Marvin Harrison Jr.

2. Rome Odunze

3. Malik Nabers

4. Brian Thomas Jr

5. Ladd McConkey

 

I had Tez Walker at 4 before his horrible senior bowl and not sure McConkey is a Bills fit as a slot but I like him as the # 5 guy. I think the best fit for the Bills is Troy Franklin. Big productive WR in college who can stretch the field but is more diverse than Gabe Davis coming out of college. I'd like to see Franklin add more bulk to his frame as I wonder if he will struggle against press in the NFL. For the rest of my top 10....

 

6. Franklin

7. Adonai Mitchell

8. Coleman

9. Legette

10.  Baker

[mannc]

11 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

Yea after breaking down the WR class it definitely a deep one for sure. Just going off of the tape my top 5 pre combine is:

 

1. Marvin Harrison Jr.

2. Rome Odunze

3. Malik Nabers

4. Brian Thomas Jr

5. Ladd McConkey

 

I had Tez Walker at 4 before his horrible senior bowl and not sure McConkey is a Bills fit as a slot but I like him as the # 5 guy. I think the best fit for the Bills is Troy Franklin. Big productive WR in college who can stretch the field but is more diverse than Gabe Davis coming out of college. I'd like to see Franklin add more bulk to his frame as I wonder if he will struggle against press in the NFL. For the rest of my top 10....

 

6. Franklin

7. Adonai Mitchell

8. Coleman

9. Legette

10.  Baker

As I listen and read more draft analysis, I wonder if Odunze is really a sure-fire top 10 pick, especially if he doesn’t run under a 4.55 at the combine.  Great college WR but seems like more of a contested catch guy than someone who will separate consistently from NFL corners…reminds me a little of Drake London.  Not saying he’s not a really good prospect, but I’m not sure he deserves to put in the same tier as Harrison and Nabers…

[gonzo1105]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

As I listen and read more draft analysis, I wonder if Odunze is really a sure-fire top 10 pick, especially if he doesn’t run under a 4.55 at the combine.  Great college WR but seems like more of a contested catch guy than someone who will separate consistently from NFL corners…reminds me a little of Drake London.  Not saying he’s not a really good prospect, but I’m not sure he deserves to put in the same tier as Harrison and Nabers…

I actually love the fact that he caught so many contested balls. Means it should translate if he doesn’t have top end speed. I have him much closer to MHJ than I do to Nabers

 

I actually think that Nabers is overrated a bit. When Watkins/Hopkins came out a long time ago I always thought Hopkins was better coming out but didn’t have the traits Watkins did. I kind of have the same vibes with Nabers/ Thomas where everyone 8 years from now is like how did we not see Thomas as better than Nabers. I get it tho the rankings for this class will be all over. 

[OldTimer1960]

55 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Re: the discussion of age and more specifically breakout age, Xavier Legette's breakout age is probably going to end up being 22.6 based on my own math (but PlayerProfiler.com is really the one place that everyone cites for this and they don't have a breakout age for him listed yet). Players that were drafted in the first 3 rounds with a breakout age of 22.0 or older (roughly dating back to 2007 where PlayerProfiler starts not having some of the players in the database):

Player	Year	Pick	BO Age
Anthony Gonzalez	2007	32	22.0
Greg Jennings	2006	52	22.0
Devin Duvernay	2020	92	22.0
Terrance Williams	2013	74	22.0
Harry Douglas	2008	84	22.0
Van Jefferson	2020	57	22.1
TJ Graham	2012	69	22.1
Danny Gray	2022	105	22.4
Andre Caldwell	2008	97	22.4
Kelvin Benjamin	2014	28	22.6
Jalen Hurd	2019	67	22.6
ArDarius Stewart	2017	79	22.7
Javon Walker	2002	20	22.9
Velus Jones	2022	71	24.3
Henry Ruggs	2020	12	Never
Mecole Hardman	2019	56	Never
Devin Hester	2006	57	Never
Tre Tucker	2023	100	Never
Terry McLaurin	2019	76	Never
Marquise Goodwin	2013	78	Never

 

It's not exactly a list that inspires confidence. I believe as breakout ages are posted by PlayerProfiler, this will apply to Ricky Pearsall as well who I expect to be around a 22.0.

Interesting data for sure.  I wonder if the fact that Legette wasn’t a WR in high school delayed his emergence and if that mitigates concern over late bloomer label.

[DCOrange]

2 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Interesting data for sure.  I wonder if the fact that Legette wasn’t a WR in high school delayed his emergence and if that mitigates concern over late bloomer label.

Legette was a WR throughout high school until his senior season when the QB got hurt.

[OldTimer1960]

21 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Legette was a WR throughout high school until his senior season when the QB got hurt.

Hmm, hadn’t seen that.  Thanks!

[MiracleAtRich1393]

11 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

No one's giving us a 3rd for Elam. Reportedly there were no offers for him beyond a bag of balls at the Deadline. That's why he wasn't moved. An injury riddled last part of the season where we didn't call on him until Douglas AND Benford went down didn't improve matters.

 

I find it highly unlikely that Beane is trading away a next year's 1st for anyone. His 1sts are gold to him. He didn't even trade away the extra 1st he had when we got Josh. The only time he did move a 1st was when Diggs was available and he decided he'd rather him than any WR that would be on the board when we picked that year. Future 1sts factor too much into his plans to replace players he may or may not be able to re-sign.

 

The other problem here is teams don't generally want to move down 20+ picks. Even if the value works, you still have to convince the team to move down THAT far. Very unlikely they'd want to. 

 

Most mocks have Nabers going to the Giants at #6. I don't see any way they'd pass on him and give him to us. I don't care what the deal offered is.

KC sent us less to go from 27 to #10 for Mahomes, plus like I said Schoen owes us. Malik Nabers come on down LFGGGGGG 

[Warriorspikes51]

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

6 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Malachi Corley

[Roundybout]

14 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Ladd McConkey 

[MiracleAtRich1393]

26 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

 

Troy Franklin, so many highlights where he takes a short/intermediate pass, hits a seam and no one can catch him from behind