2024 WR Draft Class

[DCOrange]

On 2/21/2024 at 6:36 AM, BillsFanForever19 said:

Mel Kiper's Top 10 WR's Big Board

 

https://www.espn.co.uk/nfl/insider/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/38381720/2024-nfl-draft-rankings-mel-kiper-big-board-top-prospects-position-best-players

 

1. Marvin Harrison Jr.

2. Rome Odunze

3. Malik Nabers

4. Brian Thomas Jr.

5. Ladd McConkey

6. Keon Coleman

7. Xavier Worthy

8. Adonai Mitchell

9. Malachi Corley

10. Xavier Legette

 

Troy Franklin doesn't even make his Top 10 list. Wild. McConkey is way too high for his size and (lack of) speed. Legette is too low IMO.

This is one of the big disconnects between Kiper and some of you guys. Kiper expects McConkey to run in the 4.4's or possibly 4.3's if he has a better than expected day.

[DCOrange]

21 hours ago, SCBills said:

 

He's legit.  I've watched Georgia quite a bit and he jumps off the screen.   Toying with SEC defenders out of the slot. 

 

I actually prefer Pearsall, who seems more athletic/explosive, but I'm not sure where people see slot WR's playing in this Offense..

 

We already have a high potential slot WR for next year in Shakir and Diggs is a guy who we should probably think about transitioning more to the slot as well.  

 

IMO, with that knowledge, along with Davis likely leaving in FA, it seems like the Bills should probably be in the market of bringing in multiple outside WR's. 

I like Pearsall more than the consensus; think he ended up as like my WR8 or something after watching pretty much all of the main WRs in the class. I never love taking WRs that are as old as he is, but his film was a lot better than I expected. I think McConkey is more athletic/explosive though, so I disagree there. That's not to say Pearsall is a bad athlete by any means, but I do think it holds him back a little bit.

 

Re: taking a slot WR, it definitely isn't ideal. The X WR is clearly our biggest need, but it may ultimately boil down to how the draft plays out. There's only a handful of X WRs in this class that I really love early in the draft and almost all of them are likely to be off the board by the time it gets to #28. I also think that despite Shakir really coming on down the stretch this season, we could still use someone that's better against man coverage in the slot. Shakir racked up almost all of his production against zone, which is still helpful obviously but if you want guys that can get open quickly against man coverage for Josh, we could use an upgrade in the slot too and this draft is filled with guys that can potentially do that. I wouldn't do it at #28, but it might be a consideration on Day 2.

[DCOrange]

16 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

What is a reasonable yards per route run?  I don’t know the source, but I read somewhere that Gabe Davis had 0.97 Yprr.  That might be wrong, but it would not surprise me.

Among the 84 NFL WRs to receive at least 50 targets this year, the average YPRR was 1.69. Davis was at 1.34, which was 58th among that group.

 

Among the 43 college WRs that I pulled into my Excel chart, the average YPRR was 2.39.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12pCgsJPa9X-jjNMOZ_exJTAEfxmZOeETzEm8SNkuXec/edit#gid=1244172747

 

Should also mention you have to consider context with YPRR. It will heavily favor WRs that are the #1 target on their team (for example, it'll be biased towards a guy like Xavier Legette or Malik Washington for example who were by far the #1 target on their team vs. someone like Brian Thomas or Keon Coleman who played in offenses where the ball was spread out more/they weren't featured as much). On the flipside, if you're playing with a poor passer, your YPRR will suffer since you can't rack up yards if they don't get you the ball, so guys like Tahj Washington (Caleb Williams), Nabers/Thomas (Jayden Daniels), and Tez Walker (Drake Maye) are probably at an advantage from that perspective. If you happen to be a WR that played in more of a balanced passing attack and also didn't have a good QB, you're probably screwed in terms of YPRR.

 

  

15 hours ago, MiracleAtRich1393 said:

Nice, where is this from? I'd be interested to see others like Malik Washington, Roman Wilson, Jermaine Burton, Ricky Pearsall, Malachi Corley, McCaffrey, etc.

I believe those drop rates are probably for their entire careers so it isn't a perfect match to my table which shows the last two seasons, but feel free to check the link above for drop rates on all of the guys you're asking about.

Edited February 22 by DCOrange

[BBFL]

14 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have seen a few say Chop is a 3-4 guy only. That is not how I see him. I think he can play in a 4-3. He has the skillset to do it he just might not be the guy you want in on a lot of early downs as a rookie because he hasn't done much of it and has some room to work on diagnosing the run game and maintaining his gap discipline.

 

To be clear I wasn't saying I'd draft him for the Bills. But I can see him being their type. He is the definition of high ceiling and toolsy even if the production does not match the hype. With the exception of last year the Bills have gone for measurables and traits early in the draft. 

 

If it is not receiver (I think it will be) then when I look at the guys who are likely going to be coming off the board in that final 6 or 7 picks of round one area and think about combining what the Bills value with a reasonable need he is the guy that stands out as a possibility to me. 

Absolutely. Just my view after talking to people who watched every game of his and what he brings is that’s he is suited for a 3/4 is where he’d transition best for success in the NFL, not that he can’t be a DE in a 4/3 scheme. Personally not enamored with traits and measurables, if I were drafting I’d like to see some top end production somewhere from a guy you are selecting with that important a pick. That will always vary from person to person evaluating and drafting and rightly so. 
 

Regarding the positional need and where value falls on the board of candidates right now, they are taking another defensive lineman. Be that edge or interior. There isn’t really a doubt in my mind. It’s all a personal standpoint to put Josh in the best position possible as to why the camp I am of hope in is WR but if the top 5 guys are gone then you have to go BPA. 

 

Out of those top WR’s it’s pretty much a gimme that MHJ & Nabers are gone. That leaves Odunze, Coleman and Thomas Jr…

 

Barring an absolutely catastrophic combine, I just feel those guys are gone before 25. Actually feel BTJ goes before Coleman. That leaves us, potentially if it falls that way, the next trio of Franklin, Mitchell & Worthy. Logic would say that a defensive guy who the Bills have higher on the board drops down to pick 28 than them passing him up for a WR is where I am at. 
 

That’s fine as this draft has some decent talent in abundance on both the defensive line and WR. Let’s hope we just get a guy who contributes for the team. 🤞

Sounds like the perspective is on par with one another to me. 🤷‍♂️

Edited February 22 by BBFL

[Dr. Who]

9 hours ago, BBFL said:

Absolutely. Just my view after talking to people who watched every game of his and what he brings is that’s he is suited for a 3/4 is where he’d transition best for success in the NFL, not that he can’t be a DE in a 4/3 scheme. Personally not enamored with traits and measurables, if I were drafting I’d like to see some top end production somewhere from a guy you are selecting with that important a pick. That will always vary from person to person evaluating and drafting and rightly so. 
 

Regarding the positional need and where value falls on the board of candidates right now, im in the camp they are taking another defensive lineman. Be that edge or interior. There was never really a doubt in my mind. It’s all a personal standpoint to put Josh in the best position possible as to why the camp I am in is WR but if the top 5 guys are gone then you have to go BPA. 

 

Out of those top WR’s it’s pretty much a gimme that MHJ & Nabers are gone. That leaves Odunze, Coleman and Thomas Jr…

 

Barring an absolutely catastrophic combine, I just feel those guys are gone before 25. Actually feel BTJ goes before Coleman. That leaves us, potentially if it falls that way, the next trio of Franklin, Mitchell & Worthy. Logic would say that a defensive guy who the Bills have higher on the board drops down to pick 28 than them passing him up for a WR is where I am at. 
 

That’s fine as this draft has some decent talent in abundance on both the defensive line and WR. Let’s hope we just get a guy who contributes for the team. 🤞

Sounds like the perspective is on par with one another to me. 🤷‍♂️

I think by the time the Combine is over, Legette will be and should be a consideration at #28. Don't really like Worthy so much because he is a toothpick.

Edited February 22 by Dr. Who

[NewEra]

9 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Is he the guy that retired from football then returned? 

Justin Shorter was a "body catcher" too

Yeah, he had neck surgery and missed 2 seasons.  Scary for sure.  I just think he’s an animal.  His technique, footwork and explosiveness is a recipe for being an elite pass rusher.  

[OldTimer1960]

36 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Yeah, he had neck surgery and missed 2 seasons.  Scary for sure.  I just think he’s an animal.  His technique, footwork and explosiveness is a recipe for being an elite pass rusher.  

I do like Latu.  His medical is scary, but NFL will be all over that. 

[DCOrange]

Just for fun, I decided to score WR prospects on some of the metrics that I find to be important and create a prospect score that I then translated to a projected draft range. I took both 2022 and 2023 into account for these scores but weighted it more off of 2023 (with the exception of one player who missed almost the entire season). Then I took the draft grades that I have from watching film and decided to combine them into one all-inclusive draft grade (slightly favoring film over metrics). The prospects that I've watched film on graded out this way (combined grade first, then film, then metrics):

 

Player	Combined	Film	Metrics
Malik Nabers	Early 1st	Early 1st	Early 1st
Marvin Harrison Jr.	Early 1st	Early 1st	Mid 1st
Troy Franklin	Mid 1st	Late 1st	Mid 1st
Rome Odunze	Mid 1st	Early 1st	Mid 2nd
Ladd McConkey	Early 2nd	Early 2nd	Early 2nd
Brian Thomas Jr.	Mid 2nd	Mid 1st	Mid 4th
Keon Coleman	Late 2nd	Late 1st	Late 4th
Malachi Corley	Late 2nd	Late 3rd	Early 1st
Ricky Pearsall	Early 3rd	Early 2nd	Late 4th
Roman Wilson	Early 3rd	Mid 2nd	Early 4th
Brenden Rice	Early 3rd	Late 2nd	Late 4th
Ja'Lynn Polk	Mid 3rd	Mid 2nd	Mid 5th
Xavier Legette	Late 3rd	Late 3rd	Late 3rd
Adonai Mitchell	Early 4th	Late 2nd	Late 6th
Jamari Thrash	Early 4th	Mid 5th	Early 2nd
Xavier Worthy	Early 5th	Late 6th	Late 2nd
Tez Walker	Late 5th	Mid 5th	Early 6th
Jalen McMillan	Early 6th	Late 7th	Early 3rd

 

Some major differences between my film vs. metrics as well as some of the players I haven't studied on film that stood out on metrics:

• Metrics are lower on Odunze than I am and ever so slightly lower on Harrison.
• Metrics definitely do not like Brian Thomas and Keon Coleman as much as I do.
• On metrics alone, Malachi Corley was pretty clearly the 2nd best WR in the class after Malik Nabers.
• Ricky Pearsall ranked 28th out of the 43 WRs I scored, so metrics are a bit lower on him than I was on film.
• Adonai Mitchell was the 5th worst in the metrics. Ja'Lynn Polk was 33rd out of 43 so he didn't fare well either.
• Metrics had Jamari Thrash 10th out of 43. I admittedly liked his film at the Senior Bowl but he didn't stand out that much in the actual games I watched. I know he's a favorite of the Cover1 guys too.
• Metrics liked Xavier Worthy and Jalen McMillan much more than I did.
• Guys that I haven't scouted that stood out: Malik Washington (3rd highest), Isaiah Williams (6th), Dominic Lovett (7th), Joshua Cephus (8th, small school kid), and Hayden Hatten (11th, another small school kid). Washington and Lovett were almost exclusively used in the slot. Cephus was out wide 38% this year but was very low the year prior and Hatten was 68% this year.

No idea if this sort of combined ranking will fare better than just pure film or pure metrics, but it was a fun exercise to throw it together.

[The Jokeman]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

Just for fun, I decided to score WR prospects on some of the metrics that I find to be important and create a prospect score that I then translated to a projected draft range. I took both 2022 and 2023 into account for these scores but weighted it more off of 2023 (with the exception of one player who missed almost the entire season). Then I took the draft grades that I have from watching film and decided to combine them into one all-inclusive draft grade (slightly favoring film over metrics). The prospects that I've watched film on graded out this way (combined grade first, then film, then metrics):

 

 

I'm curious if you've evaluated Cornelius Johnson from Michigan at all? as he's on my sleeper list of WR. I mentioned before but think his size and skill set remind me of Romeo Doubs who the Packers took in the late 4th a few seasons ago and came up big for them in the playoffs. 

[KOKBILLS]

6 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Among the 84 NFL WRs to receive at least 50 targets this year, the average YPRR was 1.69. Davis was at 1.34, which was 58th among that group.

 

Among the 43 college WRs that I pulled into my Excel chart, the average YPRR was 2.39.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12pCgsJPa9X-jjNMOZ_exJTAEfxmZOeETzEm8SNkuXec/edit#gid=1244172747

 

Should also mention you have to consider context with YPRR. It will heavily favor WRs that are the #1 target on their team (for example, it'll be biased towards a guy like Xavier Legette or Malik Washington for example who were by far the #1 target on their team vs. someone like Brian Thomas or Keon Coleman who played in offenses where the ball was spread out more/they weren't featured as much). On the flipside, if you're playing with a poor passer, your YPRR will suffer since you can't rack up yards if they don't get you the ball, so guys like Tahj Washington (Caleb Williams), Nabers/Thomas (Jayden Daniels), and Tez Walker (Drake Maye) are probably at an advantage from that perspective. If you happen to be a WR that played in more of a balanced passing attack and also didn't have a good QB, you're probably screwed in terms of YPRR.

 

  

I believe those drop rates are probably for their entire careers so it isn't a perfect match to my table which shows the last two seasons, but feel free to check the link above for drop rates on all of the guys you're asking about.

 

That spread sheet on the link is awesome!!! Thanks!!! 

[KOKBILLS]

6 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I think by the time the Combine is over, Ligette will be and should be a consideration at #28. Don't really like Worthy so much because he is a toothpick.

 

I really like Legette... I was SO disappointed when he only measured 6-1 at the Sr Bowl... Then you watch him again and forget all about that.

 

[34-78-83]

47 minutes ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

I really like Legette... I was SO disappointed when he only measured 6-1 at the Sr Bowl... Then you watch him again and forget all about that.

 

There is absolutely nothing whatsoever negative about him being 6'1". he's the same height and weight as AJ Brown.

[DCOrange]

2 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

I'm curious if you've evaluated Cornelius Johnson from Michigan at all? as he's on my sleeper list of WR. I mentioned before but think his size and skill set remind me of Romeo Doubs who the Packers took in the late 4th a few seasons ago and came up big for them in the playoffs. 

I haven't studied him on film but he was dead last of the 43 WRs I looked at on the metrics.

[OldTimer1960]

4 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Just for fun, I decided to score WR prospects on some of the metrics that I find to be important and create a prospect score that I then translated to a projected draft range. I took both 2022 and 2023 into account for these scores but weighted it more off of 2023 (with the exception of one player who missed almost the entire season). Then I took the draft grades that I have from watching film and decided to combine them into one all-inclusive draft grade (slightly favoring film over metrics). The prospects that I've watched film on graded out this way (combined grade first, then film, then metrics):

 

Player	Combined	Film	Metrics
Malik Nabers	Early 1st	Early 1st	Early 1st
Marvin Harrison Jr.	Early 1st	Early 1st	Mid 1st
Troy Franklin	Mid 1st	Late 1st	Mid 1st
Rome Odunze	Mid 1st	Early 1st	Mid 2nd
Ladd McConkey	Early 2nd	Early 2nd	Early 2nd
Brian Thomas Jr.	Mid 2nd	Mid 1st	Mid 4th
Keon Coleman	Late 2nd	Late 1st	Late 4th
Malachi Corley	Late 2nd	Late 3rd	Early 1st
Ricky Pearsall	Early 3rd	Early 2nd	Late 4th
Roman Wilson	Early 3rd	Mid 2nd	Early 4th
Brenden Rice	Early 3rd	Late 2nd	Late 4th
Ja'Lynn Polk	Mid 3rd	Mid 2nd	Mid 5th
Xavier Legette	Late 3rd	Late 3rd	Late 3rd
Adonai Mitchell	Early 4th	Late 2nd	Late 6th
Jamari Thrash	Early 4th	Mid 5th	Early 2nd
Xavier Worthy	Early 5th	Late 6th	Late 2nd
Tez Walker	Late 5th	Mid 5th	Early 6th
Jalen McMillan	Early 6th	Late 7th	Early 3rd

 

Some major differences between my film vs. metrics as well as some of the players I haven't studied on film that stood out on metrics:

• Metrics are lower on Odunze than I am and ever so slightly lower on Harrison.
• Metrics definitely do not like Brian Thomas and Keon Coleman as much as I do.
• On metrics alone, Malachi Corley was pretty clearly the 2nd best WR in the class after Malik Nabers.
• Ricky Pearsall ranked 28th out of the 43 WRs I scored, so metrics are a bit lower on him than I was on film.
• Adonai Mitchell was the 5th worst in the metrics. Ja'Lynn Polk was 33rd out of 43 so he didn't fare well either.
• Metrics had Jamari Thrash 10th out of 43. I admittedly liked his film at the Senior Bowl but he didn't stand out that much in the actual games I watched. I know he's a favorite of the Cover1 guys too.
• Metrics liked Xavier Worthy and Jalen McMillan much more than I did.
• Guys that I haven't scouted that stood out: Malik Washington (3rd highest), Isaiah Williams (6th), Dominic Lovett (7th), Joshua Cephus (8th, small school kid), and Hayden Hatten (11th, another small school kid). Washington and Lovett were almost exclusively used in the slot. Cephus was out wide 38% this year but was very low the year prior and Hatten was 68% this year.

No idea if this sort of combined ranking will fare better than just pure film or pure metrics, but it was a fun exercise to throw it together.

Thanks, I imagine that was a lot of work!  What metrics did you consider and which particular metrics did Thomas, Coleman, Mitchell and Polk not do well on?  What are the sources of the metrics that you used?  Some metrics seem very prone to opinions like “drop %”.  Who decides what is a drop vs poor pass vs good defense and is the same “judge” creating the metric for each player?

2 hours ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

I really like Legette... I was SO disappointed when he only measured 6-1 at the Sr Bowl... Then you watch him again and forget all about that.

 

I don’t think being “only” 6’1” is a problem at all.  Taller isn’t alway better - though I’d happily take Megatron in his prime.

[DCOrange]

31 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Thanks, I imagine that was a lot of work!  What metrics did you consider and which particular metrics did Thomas, Coleman, Mitchell and Polk not do well on?  What are the sources of the metrics that you used?  Some metrics seem very prone to opinions like “drop %”.  Who decides what is a drop vs poor pass vs good defense and is the same “judge” creating the metric for each player?

Metrics that I factored in include: Age, % of pass plays they were targeted, yards per route run, % of targets categorized as open, catch % when open, avoided tackles rate and PFF grade, and I was particularly focused on their success rates against man coverage. With the 4 WRs you mentioned specifically:

• Thomas would have been an Early or Mid 3rd if we just looked at 2023's stats (weighed down by his low target %), but his numbers from 2022 brought him down another round.
• Coleman's relatively low score basically boiled down to low YPRR and low % of targets as open. Beyond those two areas, he wasn't good enough to earn positive points but wasn't bad enough to earn negative points either.
• Mitchell was mostly bad across the board. He wasn't targeted nearly as much as most of the class, YPRR was very low, and his numbers against man coverage were dreadful.
• Polk is really due to 2022 being horrific. Based solely on 2023, he would have come out to be a late 3rd rounder on the metrics, but he was nearly the lowest rated WR in the sample in 2022. The only WRs that were worse were Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint and Robert Lewis (small school kid from Georgia State).

[34-78-83]

Been watching some of these day 2-3 WR's this weekend and I've come away super impressed with Thrash, Baker and Burton. All three look to me like the NFL won't be too much for them.

[BillsFanForever19]

On 2/22/2024 at 7:58 AM, DCOrange said:

I like Pearsall more than the consensus; think he ended up as like my WR8 or something after watching pretty much all of the main WRs in the class. I never love taking WRs that are as old as he is, but his film was a lot better than I expected. I think McConkey is more athletic/explosive though, so I disagree there. That's not to say Pearsall is a bad athlete by any means, but I do think it holds him back a little bit.

 

Re: taking a slot WR, it definitely isn't ideal. The X WR is clearly our biggest need, but it may ultimately boil down to how the draft plays out. There's only a handful of X WRs in this class that I really love early in the draft and almost all of them are likely to be off the board by the time it gets to #28. I also think that despite Shakir really coming on down the stretch this season, we could still use someone that's better against man coverage in the slot. Shakir racked up almost all of his production against zone, which is still helpful obviously but if you want guys that can get open quickly against man coverage for Josh, we could use an upgrade in the slot too and this draft is filled with guys that can potentially do that. I wouldn't do it at #28, but it might be a consideration on Day 2.

 

And not only do we have Shakir that works out of the Slot, but Dalton Kincaid as well. 

 

Anyone who is a Day 1 or Day 2 pick out of the slot is completely out of the equation. 

Edited February 25 by BillsFanForever19

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, 34-78-83 said:

Been watching some of these day 2-3 WR's this weekend and I've come away super impressed with Thrash, Baker and Burton. All three look to me like the NFL won't be too much for them.

 

I wish people would look more into these types of guys. We'll be taking 1 WR in Round 1 and then I expect Beane to address starters elsewhere for our next 2 picks.

 

Outside possibility he trades back into the Bottom of Round 3 from Round 4 if someone is sticking out. But imo that's the soonest Beane would possibly complete a double dip. These are the types of guys we'd be considering there with our 2nd WR pick.

Edited February 25 by BillsFanForever19

[LEBills]

1 hour ago, 34-78-83 said:

Been watching some of these day 2-3 WR's this weekend and I've come away super impressed with Thrash, Baker and Burton. All three look to me like the NFL won't be too much for them.

Thrash has some route running and yac ability but had a high drop rate and struggled at the senior bowl. 
 

Baker also has a high drop rate but has nice physicality and playmaking. A former Alabama receiver before transferring to UCF.

 

Burton on the flip side has great hands (DCOranges data has him listed as 0 drops), and averaged over 20 ypc this year in a dysfunctional Alabama passing attack. He is personally my preference and I have him rated pretty highly in this class, though all three have tools to work with.

[DCOrange]

Daniel Jeremiah updated his top 50 big board today and ranked the WRs as such (overall ranking in parentheses):

1. Marvin Harrison Jr. (2)
2. Rome Odunze (3)
3. Malik Nabers (4)
4. Brian Thomas Jr. (16)
5. Adonai Mitchell (33)
6. Keon Coleman (36)
7. Troy Franklin (37)
8. Xavier Worthy (41)
9. Ladd McConkey (42)
10. Malachi Corley (44)
11. Ricky Pearsall (48)
12. Roman Wilson (50)

https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-50-2024-nfl-draft-prospect-rankings-2-0