2024 WR Draft Class

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Hoping for one of Odunze/Thomas Jr./Worthy and then another good separator in rounds 3-5.

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

Hoping for one of Odunze/Thomas Jr./Worthy and then another good separator in rounds 3-5.

I don't see any chance Odunze drops within trade range. Thomas might, Worthy will probably be there. He's really a twig, though a fast one.

[BillsFanForever19]

19 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

Hoping for one of Odunze/Thomas Jr./Worthy and then another good separator in rounds 3-5.

 

The only way Odunze falls within striking distance of us is if he blows out his knee training or something and will miss the 2024 season. Which would put us out on him anyways.

[BillsFanForever19]

7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I like Coleman because he fits what the Bills need. We need a WR that can win against man coverage outside.

 

Defenses ran man against us more than any other team because they knew they could get away with it against our WRs. As a result we were forced to throw passes to our TEs and RBs against man almost half the time, which is not a recipe for explosive offense.

 

Insert Keon Coleman... He has traits to physically dominate man coverage. I get that he isn't a great separator, but being able to physically box out his man and win at the catch point can be equally valuable. Also he could be an elite red zone target.

 

Positional value, physical upside, adds traits that we don't already have. That's what I'm looking for. For me it is Franklin and Coleman as the only two realistically available players that check all those boxes.

 

It's refreshing to see another poster focus on "checking the boxes" of what Beane would look for in an Outside WR. People fall in love with what they watch in highlight videos and ignore that Beane is a guy that focuses more on checking all the boxes and projecting fit over who looks the sexiest on film. He's looking for:

 

Height - Minimum 6'1" - preferably in the 6'3" to 6'5" area

 

Speed - Minimum 4.45-4.50 - preferably in the 4.3-4.4 area. Though a 4.45-4.50 adequately checks the box on a bigger WR.

 

Mass - Minimum 190-195 lbs - preferably over 205 with some muscle mass

 

True Outside WR - The most important trait. No less than 80% of the time on the perimeter. Looking for a guy that has no doubts that we can just stick on the island, as we only have 1 WR that we can do that with (outside of Shorter who is a question mark) and have multiple slots we want to be utilizing there.

 

Interviews well - This is something we won't know until after we've selected our guy. They always put an extreme emphasis on guys who show a Football intelligence on what they do right, what they do wrong, display a good work ethic, display coachability, and how much passion they show for the game.

 

It's frustrating for me to see almost everyone bang the table for Xavier Worthy. He looks like a taller Roscoe Parrish to me. He checks some boxes, but is a negative check on others.

 

At 6'1" he only meets the minimum height for me. He does have great speed. But at 170 lbs - he's *way* too small of a build in mass and muscle. And he only took 60% of his snaps on the Outside. He's not someone I see putting on the island and staying there.

 

Others love Ladd McConkey, but he's 5'11" and runs a 4.6 40. He screams Slot at the Pro Level. Ricky Pearsall, another player mentioned at times, he's a true Slot.

 

I agree that Keon Coleman checks all of the boxes. Unless we move up for Thomas or Franklin, he's starting to look like a very likely pick of we were to stay pat at 28. I see the first 3 going in the first 6-8 picks and it seems unlikely to me that only 1 WR will go in the following 20 or so picks.

 

I also feel that this year people are swayed by the guys at the top. They're comparing everyone else to them and feeling like they fall short of that. Truth is, in other years, some of these guys would go higher and be viewed way differently. At 28 - we're never going to get that Elite across the board talent.

 

Check all the boxes you can, with no net negatives, and hope they develop into even more with good coaching and hard work.

Edited February 17 by BillsFanForever19

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, DJB said:

Im in the same boat mindset that it’s most likely to be one of Franklin or Thomas for us. 

Until Thomas goes top 20 and the chiefs jump us for Franklin.  He seems like a guy they would be targeting as well and it’s pretty obvious that he fits what we’re looking for as well.  If we don’t move up, my money is on us NOT landing Franklin.  I hope I’m wrong.  

[Augie]

13 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Until Thomas goes top 20 and the chiefs jump us for Franklin.  He seems like a guy they would be targeting as well and it’s pretty obvious that he fits what we’re looking for as well.  If we don’t move up, my money is on us NOT landing Franklin.  I hope I’m wrong.  

 

There is the talent evaluation, then the high stakes game of jumping. Be aggressive, or hold?  For that reason, if I could pick any “sporting event” anywhere in the world, I’d pick the Bills draft room. 

[BillsFanForever19]

21 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Interesting .,,

 

The bottom  of the third round pick probably gets them up 4-5 spots … so if he is giving up more than that …, it’s very brave in my view when there are a lot he needs to get done in this draft and the next 

 

You don't have to move the 3rd and I don't think he'll want to do that. 

 

We have 10 picks in this Draft. An extra 5th and 2 extra 6ths. Anyone who thinks we'll be drafting a player with every one of those picks is kidding themselves. 

 

According to the more modern Draft Trade Chart (https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp) - we can move our 4th and one of our extra 5ths to move up 4 picks to 24. I know Sal is talking more, but I think 4 spots is about the sweet spot for us. Maybe if we threw in a high Day 3 in 2025, we could get to 22 or 23.

 

We'd lose a pick in the 4th. But we'd maintain our 3rd, still have a pick in the 5th, 3 picks in the 6th, and a 7th. And If we really wanted to get back in the bottom 4th, we could move our 5th and one of our 6ths to do that.

 

And then if we wanted to get back into the 5th, we could move our 2 remaining 6's to do that.

 

There's flexibility to do a lot and still have a fairly standard Draft of 6-7 players - while comfortably being able to move around the board a bit.

Edited February 17 by BillsFanForever19

[Aussie Joe]

1 minute ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

You don't have to move the 3rd and I don't think he'll want to do that. 

 

We have 10 picks in this Draft. An extra 5th and 2 extra 6ths. Anyone who thinks we'll be drafting a player with every one of those picks is kidding themselves. 

 

According to the more modern Draft Trade Chart (https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp) - we can move our 4th and one of our extra 5ths to move up 4 picks to 24. I know Sal is talking more, but I think 4 spots is about the sweet spot for us. Maybe if we threw in a Day 3 in 2025, we could get to 23.

 

We'd lose a pick in the 4th. But we'd maintain our 3rd, still have a pick in the 5th, 3 picks in the 6th, and a 7th. And If we really wanted to get back in the bottom 4th, we could move our 5th and one of our 6ths to do that.

 

And then if we wanted to get back into the 5th, we could move our 2 remaining 6's to do that.

 

There's flexibility to do a lot and still have a fairly standard Draft while comfortably being able to move around the board a bit.

We know the price better than anyone as experienced over the last two years that a fourth round moves you two spots in the twenties …a fifth probably gets you 1 more spot…

[BillsFanForever19]

4 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

We know the price better than anyone as experienced over the last two years that a fourth round moves you two spots in the twenties …a fifth probably gets you 1 more spot…

 

According to the modern Rich Hill chart, that 4th we paid was worth a little more than the 2 spots we got.

 

28 is worth 209, our 4th is worth 18, and our first 5th is worth 10 - a total of 237.

 

Dallas' 24th is EXACTLY 237. 

 

And adding a 5th is a 3 player for 1 player deal. Making it a package adds to the attractiveness.

[Aussie Joe]

Just now, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

According to the modern Rich Hill chart, that 4th we paid was worth a little more than the 2 spots we got.

 

28 is worth 209, our 4th is worth 18, and our first 5th is worth 10 - a total of 237.

 

Dallas' 24th is EXACTLY 237. 

 

And adding a 5th is a 3 player for 1 player deal. Making it a package adds to the attractiveness.

Well…I’m always going to go with what actually happens rather than what a draft chart says … and the two spots has probably become the standard …But anything  is possible so I’m not going to rule it out .…. There are several other variables… does the team four spots ahead want to trade down ? if your guy is still there three spots ahead than I assume you still hand over the picks to get him anyway ….

[mannc]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Until Thomas goes top 20 and the chiefs jump us for Franklin.  He seems like a guy they would be targeting as well and it’s pretty obvious that he fits what we’re looking for as well.  If we don’t move up, my money is on us NOT landing Franklin.  I hope I’m wrong.  

So are people thinking Franklin won’t make it to 28 now?  I’ve been pounding the table for him for a while, but at one point he was being looked at as a day 2 guy.  I suspect he’ll move even higher when he runs sub 4.40 at the combine.

[BillsFanForever19]

17 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Well…I’m always going to go with what actually happens rather than what a draft chart says … and the two spots has probably become the standard …But anything  is possible so I’m not going to rule it out .…. There are several other variables… does the team four spots ahead want to trade down ? if your guy is still there three spots ahead than I assume you still hand over the picks to get him anyway ….

 

Obviously, yes. If no one wants to move down, then the point is moot.

 

But the biggest question to me right now is will the 5th WR still be on the board at 24? I'm fairly certain that the top 3 are going in the Top 10 and that the next two will be gone by 28.

 

Maybe we'd have to throw in a 3rd or a 4th next season to sweeten the deal and get a little higher than that? 

 

And this is all on the notion that they love Thomas and Franklin. Who knows - maybe they love Coleman just as much. In which case, maybe we don't have to worry about any of this at all.

 

12 minutes ago, mannc said:

So are people thinking Franklin won’t make it to 28 now?  I’ve been pounding the table for him for a while, but at one point he was being looked at as a day 2 guy.  I suspect he’ll move even higher when he runs sub 4.40 at the combine.

 

That's where I'm leaning now, yes. We've already seen analysts moving him up the board based on the amount of boxes he checks, some of them double checks.

 

If he tests out very well, as I expect, I think he'll move up even higher. And with the expectation that MHJ, Odunze, and Nabers go in the Top 10 - i'd find it unlikely that just 1 WR goes in the next 18-20 picks. And Franklin is starting to look like the consensus 5th WR off the board.

 

The question to me is - how much higher than 28 is the 5th WR going to go? A couple picks? 4-6 picks? Anything more and they may be too rich for Beane's blood. Though Sal C. is predicting Beane will be a little bolder than his normal 2-3 picks, I don't see anything higher than 5-6 picks.

Edited February 17 by BillsFanForever19

[DCOrange]

25 minutes ago, mannc said:

So are people thinking Franklin won’t make it to 28 now?  I’ve been pounding the table for him for a while, but at one point he was being looked at as a day 2 guy.  I suspect he’ll move even higher when he runs sub 4.40 at the combine.

To be fair, Franklin is still mostly being mocked in the 2nd round. There's just a lot of us that think he'll move up as the process moves along.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

3 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I don't see any chance Odunze drops within trade range. Thomas might, Worthy will probably be there. He's really a twig, though a fast one.

 

2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

The only way Odunze falls within striking distance of us is if he blows out his knee training or something and will miss the 2024 season. Which would put us out on him anyways.

Hey I did say one of those three haha

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

 

Hey I did say one of those three haha

I think if they lose out on Thomas, Franklin and Coleman are likely their preference at #28. I expect if either is available, they will be the pick. If they are all gone, Ligette is ahead of Worthy, imo. I'd love Worthy as a second receiver, but they absolutely need a much bigger receiver at the X. I'm starting to see Rice showing up as a possible second rounder, which seems a little high to me, but I like him. Polk was an underrated one-term president, and I'd be pleased to add him to the WR room.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

 

There is the talent evaluation, then the high stakes game of jumping. Be aggressive, or hold?  For that reason, if I could pick any “sporting event” anywhere in the world, I’d pick the Bills draft room. 

No doubt.  Especially if you really love a guy and think he’s in a different tier.  Once Thomas Jr goes, I really think it’s going to be a chess match.   
 

I could see KC jumping up into the low 20’s and grabbing Thomas jr if he starts sliding.  That would be a terrible thing for the nfl imo.  He’s perfect for them.  And us.  Maybe not the best intermediate route runner (that I’ve seen), but he’s so dangerous deep.  Both teams would be so much scarier to defend with him. 

[BillsFanForever19]

17 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I think if they lose out on Thomas, Franklin and Coleman are likely their preference at #28. I expect if either is available, they will be the pick. If they are all gone, Ligette is ahead of Worthy, imo. I'd love Worthy as a second receiver, but they absolutely need a much bigger receiver at the X. I'm starting to see Rice showing up as a possible second rounder, which seems a little high to me, but I like him. Polk was an underrated one-term president, and I'd be pleased to add him to the WR room.

 

And a WR who was used way less than 40% of the time in the Slot. Worthy is a tweener and not a true X.

 

I agree that right now, the pick is Thomas Jr., Franklin, or Coleman. And that if we stand pat, it's more likely going to be the 6th WR off the board, not the 4th or 5th - as I see 20 picks between the 3rd coming off the board and 28.

 

And I don't see any way no WR's go in 20 picks and a bit unlikely only 1 is picked in that amount of picks. Though not impossible, I think everyone knows we're picking WR and will attempt to hop 28 to take one.

Edited February 18 by BillsFanForever19

[DJB]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

Until Thomas goes top 20 and the chiefs jump us for Franklin.  He seems like a guy they would be targeting as well and it’s pretty obvious that he fits what we’re looking for as well.  If we don’t move up, my money is on us NOT landing Franklin.  I hope I’m wrong.  

 I’m always a proponent of moving up to get your guy and I do agree both these guys could very well be gone by around 20

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

No doubt.  Especially if you really love a guy and think he’s in a different tier.  Once Thomas Jr goes, I really think it’s going to be a chess match.   
 

I could see KC jumping up into the low 20’s and grabbing Thomas jr if he starts sliding.  That would be a terrible thing for the nfl imo.  He’s perfect for them.  And us.  Maybe not the best intermediate route runner (that I’ve seen), but he’s so dangerous deep.  Both teams would be so much scarier to defend with him. 

I don't even want to contemplate those devil Chiefs jumping us to grab Thomas. If Beane has to overpay to stop that, I'm okay with it.

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

Until Thomas goes top 20 and the chiefs jump us for Franklin.  He seems like a guy they would be targeting as well and it’s pretty obvious that he fits what we’re looking for as well.  If we don’t move up, my money is on us NOT landing Franklin.  I hope I’m wrong.  

They need some bodies to play meaningful snaps on D.  I don’t see any way that they would be willing to part with their compensatory 3rd or 4th to move up.  This might be the year to trade out of the 1st round to the top of the 2nd and maybe pick up an early 4th in the deal.