2024 WR Draft Class

[4merper4mer]

22 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

None of them were picked in the top 10

Kyle Pitts?

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

Kyle Pitts?

Was the second rookie TE (behind only Ditka) to go over 1,000 yards? What do I win?

Edited February 11 by Kirby Jackson

[4merper4mer]

9 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Was the second rookie TE (behind only Dirka) to go over 1,000 yards? What do I win?

So you’re saying Kyle Pitts has lived up to expectations?  Gotcha.  Thanks for the honest discussion.

[Dr. Who]

13 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

So you’re saying Kyle Pitts has lived up to expectations?  Gotcha.  Thanks for the honest discussion.

He hasn't exactly had a competent QB in Atlanta, not to mention the offensive prowess of Arthur Smith is somewhat questionable.

[4merper4mer]

Just now, Dr. Who said:

He hasn't exactly had a competent QB in Atlanta, not to mention the offensive prowess of Arthur Smith is somewhat questionable.

All true and that can also happen to Harrison or anyone else.  With that said, Pitts was still can’t miss……and missed.

[mrags]

33 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

He is the highest rated WR prospect in pro football outsiders history. There’s no holes in his game. That makes him different. He isn’t “a good guy.” He has as good of a skillset as any WR that they’ve scouted and a HOF dad (who was a fraction of his size). Odunze and Nabers are great prospects as well but a tier below MHJ. 

I get it. I’ve seen all the love. I just think it’s overrated. I don’t think he ends up being the best WR in this class. History would show that it’s almost never the case regardless of good a guy might be considered. Him against the field, I’d take the field 100% of the time. I think he ends up being top 5 of the class. Probably top 3. But I don’t think he’ll finish as 1. 

[34-78-83]

13 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

BUT.........that analysis goes about the same for all of the truly "elite" positions outside of QB.

 

Pass rusher, LT and WR are traditionally among the lowest(if not the 3 lowest) "Pro Bowl" hit rate positions with first round picks.

 

Generally 70% of pro bowlers at those positions come from picks after round 1...........last I saw over 40% of first round safeties turn into pro bowlers which was the highest.

 

Does that mean that a team should just pick safeties/guards and centers early because those are the highest "pro bowl" level player hit rates?  

 

Absolutely not.

 

Because those positions aren't nearly as important wrt winning championships.  

 

Every offseason fans forget that the purpose of the early rounds is to find the future cornerstones of your franchise at premium positions..........those positions where you don't often see high quality players in their prime change teams in free agency.    Instead they focus on filling holes with their mock drafts.  

 

You gotta' draft and develop those elite position players......and while the "big hit" rate isn't as high as some lesser positions........it still beats the odds of finding those MUST HAVE players later.

 

Personally,  I'm not looking too hard at safeties and 1 techs in the first 2 rounds.   Those are "free agency" value positions and one's that I hope to draft and develop replacements for later.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good points ^^

 

Not to go too off track in a WR thread, but @BADOLBILZ , What do you think of Brandon Dorlus? And do you think he's worthy of a late 3rd?

[Dr. Who]

11 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

All true and that can also happen to Harrison or anyone else.  With that said, Pitts was still can’t miss……and missed.

Human life and choices are inherently filled with uncertitude. "Can't miss" is still a matter of probability. There's no eliminating that factor. I personally think MHJ is very likely to succeed, and with Josh Allen at QB, I would be willing to wager a lot on a good result. All that said, there's no path to acquiring him that is even remotely plausible.

[mrags]

10 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Human life and choices are inherently filled with uncertitude. "Can't miss" is still a matter of probability. There's no eliminating that factor. I personally think MHJ is very likely to succeed, and with Josh Allen at QB, I would be willing to wager a lot on a good result. All that said, there's no path to acquiring him that is even remotely plausible.

The problem is he won’t be going to the Bills or any team with someone like Allen as his QB. He’ll end up with the Pats and their 2nd rd QB. Or the Redskins with their 2nd rd QB. Or maybe the Bears with Fields as their QB. That alone would put him at a disadvantage compared to someone like Nabors or Odunze with someone like Lawrence or Herbert at QB. 

[HappyDays]

10 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

A hypothetical “would ya”: pick 4 (assuming MHJ) is on the board for Elam, Bernard, pick 28, pick 60, 2025 1st  and 2025 3rd

Obviously that’s a hefty price but I’m trying to come up with something that would be considered. I saw something like this on twitter. At first I was like, “that’s too much” but after thinking about it that probably makes the Bills the team to beat. You’d re-sign Dodson to play next to Milano. I think that I would make that deal. 

 

 

I'm against this for several reasons. First, WR was certainly one of the reasons we lost to KC, but the biggest is that our back 7 was abysmal (and our front 4 only slightly less so). Your proposed scenario unequivocally makes our back 7 even worse. Dodson is not a starting MLB. Elam is better than Dane Jackson and should have been on the field over him against KC.

 

Second, our cap situation is in a very dire spot and we can't wriggle out of it by restructuring Diggs' or Miller's contract. This needs to be a year where we draft as many players as possible and start more of them than McDermott is usually comfortable with. I would expect rookies at WR, C, DE, DT, and/or S to get ample playing time. As far as I can tell that's the only way we're going to have a starting caliber roster. I read through your whole discussion and I agree with what you say about depth being less important, but I'm talking about starters.

 

Third, I agree we need more elite players. That is why we need to draft as many players as possible, to give ourselves more chances. Here are the Chiefs' elite players (other than Mahomes) and where they were drafted:

 

Kelce - 63rd

Jones - 37th

Sneed - 138th

Humphrey - 63rd

Thuney - 78th (by the Pats)

 

Their two recent foundational drafts happened because they collected picks after trading away an elite player.

Also it's possible Bernard will become an elite player next year. I think there's even a slight chance Elam becomes one at some point given his penchant for interceptions.

 

So no I would not actively make critical spots on the roster worse, and reduce our chance of finding multiple elite players this year and next, and take a couple of high-upside players off of our roster, just for one WR no matter how good his prospects are. Instead I would stick to the plan of drafting a WR at pick 28 and taking another one in rounds 2-4.

 

I also don't agree when you say there's no use trying to stop KC in the playoffs. That we just need to beat them in a shootout and there's no other way. This is the biggest myth I see posted on this board all the time. KC has in fact been stopped in the playoffs. Just this year the Ravens defense held them to 17 points with one streak of 6 consecutive drives that ended in punts, and the only reason that defensive effort was wasted was because of a couple goofy turnovers in the red zone. Don't let our defense, and that means players and coaches, off the hook. Certainly our offense could have been better, most notably the WRs. But you know we once had a WR rack up 200 yards and 4 TDs against them and that still wasn't enough to overcome an abysmal defensive showing. So at some point the defense simply needs to show up in the playoffs and we're not going to see that happen if we trade away one of our best defensive players.

 

We're only having this discussion because Beane has yet to find ONE elite player with one of his original draft picks, and McDermott has yet to coach ONE proper defensive showing against a good opponent in the playoffs. So I get that the fanbase is grasping for any conceivable means of overcoming the Chiefs in the playoffs, but the simple reality is that one or both of those men need to do better at their jobs, or else they need to be replaced. That's the only way we're going to get over the hump.

 

Edited February 11 by HappyDays

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, mrags said:

The problem is he won’t be going to the Bills or any team with someone like Allen as his QB. He’ll end up with the Pats and their 2nd rd QB. Or the Redskins with their 2nd rd QB. Or maybe the Bears with Fields as their QB. That alone would put him at a disadvantage compared to someone like Nabors or Odunze with someone like Lawrence or Herbert at QB. 

No doubt, that is a factor in determining how well he plays. Ron Jaworski used to always say "QB is a dependent position," but so is WR. All I was trying to assert is that the hypothetical of MHJ for the Bills is MHJ with Allen throwing to him; it's that combination that I would bet on.

[BADOLBILZ]

16 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

Good points ^^

 

Not to go too off track in a WR thread, but @BADOLBILZ , What do you think of Brandon Dorlus? And do you think he's worthy of a late 3rd?

 

I haven't done a deep dive on Dorlus because he just never popped in the games I watched.   I get Boogie Basham vibes from him.   Got some pass rush but doesn't finish well.  Tweener DE/DT size, over-aged, underproductive.

[SoonerBillsFan]

You miss 100% of the shots you don't take - Michael Jordan

 

Just because an inept GM missed on a trade up for a WR, is not a reason Beane shouldn't do it.  He is better than Whaley,and he has Josh Allen.

 

Pull the trigger if they feel the right guy is there.  Just because you strike out, you don't stop swinging at the ball.

[34-78-83]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I haven't done a deep dive on Dorlus because he just never popped in the games I watched.   I get Boogie Basham vibes from him.   Got some pass rush but doesn't finish well.  Tweener DE/DT size, over-aged, underproductive.

Thanks. I have a hard time translating with college D-Linemen. I was seeing him as a nice 3T who can hold the line at times too, but not really as a DE in the NFL, even though he lines up there at times.

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm against this for several reasons. First, WR was certainly one of the reasons we lost to KC, but the biggest is that our back 7 was abysmal (and our front 4 only slightly less so). Your proposed scenario unequivocally makes our back 7 even worse. Dodson is not a starting MLB. Elam is better than Dane Jackson and should have been on the field over him against KC.

 

Second, our cap situation is in a very dire spot and we can't wriggle out of it by restructuring Diggs' or Miller's contract. This needs to be a year where we draft as many players as possible and start more of them than McDermott is usually comfortable with. I would expect rookies at WR, C, DE, DT, and/or S to get ample playing time. As far as I can tell that's the only way we're going to have a starting caliber roster. I read through your whole discussion and I agree with what you say about depth being less important, but I'm talking about starters.

 

Third, I agree we need more elite players. That is why we need to draft as many players as possible, to give ourselves more chances. Here are the Chiefs' elite players (other than Mahomes) and where they were drafted:

 

Kelce - 63rd

Jones - 37th

Sneed - 138th

Humphrey - 63rd

Thuney - 78th (by the Pats)

 

Their two recent foundational drafts happened because they collected picks after trading away an elite player.

Also it's possible Bernard will become an elite player next year. I think there's even a slight chance Elam becomes one at some point given his penchant for interceptions.

 

So no I would not actively make critical spots on the roster worse, and reduce our chance of finding multiple elite players this year and next, and take a couple of high-upside players off of our roster, just for one WR no matter how good his prospects are. Instead I would stick to the plan of drafting a WR at 28 overall and taking another one in rounds 2-4.

 

I also don't agree when you say there's no use trying to stop KC in the playoffs. That we just need to beat them in a shootout and there's no other way. This is the biggest myth I see posted on this board all the time. KC has in fact been stopped in the playoffs. Just this year the Ravens defense held them to 17 points with one streak of 6 consecutive drives that ended in punts, and the only reason that defensive effort was wasted was because of a couple goofy turnovers in the red zone. Don't let our defense, and that means players and coaches, off the hook. Certainly our offense could have been better, most notably the WRs. But you know we once had a WR rack up 200 yards and 4 TDs against them and that still wasn't enough to overcome an abysmal defensive showing, so at some point the defense simply needs to show up in the playoffs and we're not going to see that happen if we trade away one of our best defensive players.

 

We're only having this discussion because Beane has yet to find ONE elite player with one of his original draft picks, and McDermott has yet to coach ONE proper defensive showing against a good opponent in the playoffs. So I get that the fanbase is grasping for any conceivable means of overcoming the Chiefs in the playoffs, but the simple reality is that one or both of those men need to do better at their jobs, or else they need to be replaced. That's the only way we're going to get over the hump.

In practical terms, this is correct. And I'll add to Beane and McDermott's failures in terms of elite players and playoff performance that I agree with @BADOLBILZ that despite his great talent and entertaining play, this is an off-season where Josh Allen needs to rededicate himself to a more focused approach to next season. This discussion about an elite, highly anticipated WR is only an intellectual game, because there is no way for it to actually happen. And the main real point behind it is to emphasize that if Beane prioritizes WR weapons and hits on one or more, the rookies and free agents that have to fill in at other positions will be in a better position to succeed, because building an offense that terrorizes the opponent will greatly benefit the Bills' defense. All of this is nearly so obvious as to be tautological, but it gets said because it has yet to happen.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

So you’re saying Kyle Pitts has lived up to expectations?  Gotcha.  Thanks for the honest discussion.

I said that he had the second highest yardage total of any rookie TE ever. Where’s the lie?

[boyst]

[mrags]

25 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

No doubt, that is a factor in determining how well he plays. Ron Jaworski used to always say "QB is a dependent position," but so is WR. All I was trying to assert is that the hypothetical of MHJ for the Bills is MHJ with Allen throwing to him; it's that combination that I would bet on.

Well. I can’t speak for anyone else but I can say myself I factor all that in. If he goes to the Bears for whatever reason I don’t think hell ever be that good. Or the Commanders for that matter. He might be the best WR in the world but if he’s got Nathan Peterman throwing him footballs it equates to nothing. 
 

Yes, if he was on the Bills with Allen it’s a completely different story. At the end of the day most people go by stats in terms of determining greatness and base their opinions on that. 
 

time will tell and we’ll all know in about 10-15 years who had the better career. Like I said from the start, I’m putting my money on the field vs MHJ. Especially in a WR class that is touted as possibly the best ever. I don’t think it’s a stretch to believe that. 

[BADOLBILZ]

15 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I said that he had the second highest yardage total of any rookie TE ever. Where’s the lie?

 

After the 3rd or 4th time you prove @4merper4mer points incorrect in a given thread you realize there's no convincing him and he's probably just trolling. 

[BillsFan2313]

2 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

He hasn't exactly had a competent QB in Atlanta, not to mention the offensive prowess of Arthur Smith is somewhat questionable.

 

On the Falcons:

Pitts - top 10 pick, 53 catches, 667 yds and 3 tds

1 td in his "great" 1000 yard year

 

Smith - 3rd pick, 50 catches, 582 yds and 3 tds