2024 WR Draft Class

[4merper4mer]

4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The Bills need to stop worrying about minor holes or future problems. They aren’t losing to KC because of OT depth. They need to start outgunning people. If they are going to win a Super Bowl it is because of Josh Allen and his weapons.
 

They aren’t built like Baltimore or SF. This isn't meant to be a balanced roster that would be a borderline playoff team with Kyle Allen. They’re more like the KC teams of the last 6 years. They go as Allen goes. Upgrading at WR is more important than the next 4 biggest needs combined. 
 

You re-sign Rapp, Shaq, Jones and Dodson. You can afford that. You fill out the rest of your roster/depth with the remainder of the draft. 

Trade half your roster and next two drafts for the most overrated WR in the history of the draft?  Brilliant.  He will be decent and have about the 5th or 6th best WR career of this draft class.  This dude ain’t Ken Griffey Jr.  

[SoCal Deek]

Way, way too much draft calculus going on here. The Bills need a lot of players given where they are age-wise and cap-wise. There’s no way I’d draft more than a single WR in the first three rounds. They’re just going to have to pray that the one they pick pans out. 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Obsessed with Nabers.

I don’t see a way they make it up that far without trading Diggs or something but I would be absolutely 100% down for that.  

[Kirby Jackson]

25 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Trade half your roster and next two drafts for the most overrated WR in the history of the draft?  Brilliant.  He will be decent and have about the 5th or 6th best WR career of this draft class.  This dude ain’t Ken Griffey Jr.  

Lol, we have reached the 🔥🔥take portion of the thread. I’ve seen every snap of his college career. He’s generational and a lock. Again, they almost certainly can’t get that high but don’t be ridiculous on MHJ. You lose credibility. 
 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/marvin-harrison-draft-scouting-2024/

31 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Way, way too much draft calculus going on here. The Bills need a lot of players given where they are age-wise and cap-wise. There’s no way I’d draft more than a single WR in the first three rounds. They’re just going to have to pray that the one they pick pans out. 

This is the exact notion that I’m challenging. I’m obviously using an extreme example but I don’t agree at all. If the Bills hit big on WR, whatever else they do won’t move the needle. They should swing big, whether they trade up or take 2 in the 1st three rounds.
 

In order to pass KC (and others) you have to outgun them. You have to trade scores. The Bills have proven over and over that they can’t get the late stop. Instead of worrying about that, score more points and it won’t matter. if you have a top 15ish defense (which they always do) that’s good enough. You will win because of Josh, nothing else. Give him everything that he needs and then worry about whatever else. 

[NewEra]

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

BUT.........that analysis goes about the same for all of the truly "elite" positions outside of QB.

 

Pass rusher, LT and WR are traditionally among the lowest(if not the 3 lowest) "Pro Bowl" hit rate positions with first round picks.

 

Generally 70% of pro bowlers at those positions come from picks after round 1...........last I saw over 40% of first round safeties turn into pro bowlers which was the highest.

 

Does that mean that a team should just pick safeties/guards and centers early because those are the highest "pro bowl" level player hit rates?  

 

Absolutely not.

 

Because those positions aren't nearly as important wrt winning championships.  

 

Every offseason fans forget that the purpose of the early rounds is to find the future cornerstones of your franchise at premium positions..........those positions where you don't often see high quality players in their prime change teams in free agency.    Instead they focus on filling holes with their mock drafts.  

 

You gotta' draft and develop those elite position players......and while the "big hit" rate isn't as high as some lesser positions........it still beats the odds of finding those MUST HAVE players later.

 

Personally,  I'm not looking too hard at safeties and 1 techs in the first 2 rounds.   Those are "free agency" value positions and one's that I hope to draft and develop replacements for later.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bingo!

[MiracleAtRich1393]

1 hour ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

Obsessed with Nabers.

I don’t see a way they make it up that far without trading Diggs or something but I would be absolutely 100% down for that.  

If he falls towards 10 I think we could make it happen 🤞

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

BUT.........that analysis goes about the same for all of the truly "elite" positions outside of QB.

 

Pass rusher, LT and WR are traditionally among the lowest(if not the 3 lowest) "Pro Bowl" hit rate positions with first round picks.

 

Generally 70% of pro bowlers at those positions come from picks after round 1...........last I saw over 40% of first round safeties turn into pro bowlers which was the highest.

 

Does that mean that a team should just pick safeties/guards and centers early because those are the highest "pro bowl" level player hit rates?  

 

Absolutely not.

 

Because those positions aren't nearly as important wrt winning championships.  

 

Every offseason fans forget that the purpose of the early rounds is to find the future cornerstones of your franchise at premium positions..........those positions where you don't often see high quality players in their prime change teams in free agency.    Instead they focus on filling holes with their mock drafts.  

 

You gotta' draft and develop those elite position players......and while the "big hit" rate isn't as high as some lesser positions........it still beats the odds of finding those MUST HAVE players later.

 

Personally,  I'm not looking too hard at safeties and 1 techs in the first 2 rounds.   Those are "free agency" value positions and one's that I hope to draft and develop replacements for later.

 

 

Yep. Totally. I was on record before the draft last year that I wouldn't mind as much going for less premium positions early if the limited supply of premium position talent was out of stock but that was very specific to last year's draft and that class which to me was extremely shallow. Otherwise the strategy should always be premium positions in round 1 and in round 2 you only go against that if you think the guy at the non-premium spot is an elite level guy. 

[TheBeaneBandit]

3 hours ago, DJB said:

Franklin or Brian Thomas are the two guys in our range I like the most .

 

Really

hoping for one of them

I would even potentially move up 6 to 8 spots to secure Thomas. I think he's the perfect match for Allen's style.

[Fan in Chicago]

6 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The Bills need to stop worrying about minor holes or future problems. They aren’t losing to KC because of OT depth. They need to start outgunning people. If they are going to win a Super Bowl it is because of Josh Allen and his weapons.
 

They aren’t built like Baltimore or SF. This isn't meant to be a balanced roster that would be a borderline playoff team with Kyle Allen. They’re more like the KC teams of the last 6 years. They go as Allen goes. Upgrading at WR is more important than the next 4 biggest needs combined. 

 

Agreed on more weapons on O. I also think the strategy should be to load up on weapons to just score a lot of points. The D then can play a different game. With JA at the helm this team more than any in the past should aim for all sorts of offensive records and points. 

6 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

A hypothetical “would ya”: pick 4 (assuming MHJ) is on the board for Elam, Bernard, pick 28, pick 60, 2025 1st  and 2025 3rd

Obviously that’s a hefty price but I’m trying to come up with something that would be considered. I saw something like this on twitter. At first I was like, “that’s too much” but after thinking about it that probably makes the Bills the team to beat. You’d re-sign Dodson to play next to Milano. I think that I would make that deal. 

 

Naah. Not on board with this plan no matter how can't miss he looks like. 

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

. They should swing big, whether they trade up or take 2 in the 1st three rounds.
 

In order to pass KC (and others) you have to outgun them. You have to trade scores. The Bills have proven over and over that they can’t get the late stop. Instead of worrying about that, score more points and it won’t matter. if you have a top 15ish defense (which they always do) that’s good enough. You will win because of Josh, nothing else. Give him everything that he needs and then worry about whatever else. 

Better strategy to take two in the top 3. But I also think another vet WR is needed on this team. Harty , Davis and Sherfield can all go

[mrags]

2 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:

Trade half your roster and next two drafts for the most overrated WR in the history of the draft?  Brilliant.  He will be decent and have about the 5th or 6th best WR career of this draft class.  This dude ain’t Ken Griffey Jr.  

this I agree 💯

[4merper4mer]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Lol, we have reached the 🔥🔥take portion of the thread. I’ve seen every snap of his college career. He’s generational and a lock. Again, they almost certainly can’t get that high but don’t be ridiculous on MHJ. You lose credibility. 
 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/marvin-harrison-draft-scouting-2024/

This is the exact notion that I’m challenging. I’m obviously using an extreme example but I don’t agree at all. If the Bills hit big on WR, whatever else they do won’t move the needle. They should swing big, whether they trade up or take 2 in the 1st three rounds.
 

In order to pass KC (and others) you have to outgun them. You have to trade scores. The Bills have proven over and over that they can’t get the late stop. Instead of worrying about that, score more points and it won’t matter. if you have a top 15ish defense (which they always do) that’s good enough. You will win because of Josh, nothing else. Give him everything that he needs and then worry about whatever else. 

It’s now a 🔥🔥take to avoid trading half the team and half of our value in the next two drafts for one guy?  I think you have that backwards.

 

 Generational lock lol.  Like Andrew Luck and Brien Taylor I suppose.  Tony Mandarich?  Ricky Williams?  No one is a lock except for in hyperbole and Harrison has issues tracking the ball which will need to be addressed when he’s not facing Purdue or Northwestern.  I’m not saying he is going to be bad and hopefully he doesn’t get accused of shooting anybody like dad but you’re just being silly.

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

It’s now a 🔥🔥take to avoid trading half the team and half of our value in the next two drafts for one guy?  I think you have that backwards.

 

 Generational lock lol.  Like Andrew Luck and Brien Taylor I suppose.  Tony Mandarich?  Ricky Williams?  No one is a lock except for in hyperbole and Harrison has issues tracking the ball which will need to be addressed when he’s not facing Purdue or Northwestern.  I’m not saying he is going to be bad and hopefully he doesn’t get accused of shooting anybody like dad but you’re just being silly.

It’s a 🔥🔥🔥take to say that he will be the 5th or 6th best WR in the class 😂. That’s absurd. He’s 80 catches, 1,200 yards and 8 TDs when he gets off the bus as a rookie. If you read that report, he’s the highest graded WR that Pro Football Outsiders (who I think we all respect) has ever scouted.
 

In case you hadn’t noticed, scouting has evolved quite a bit in recent times 😂😂. Technology and analytics have changed things quite a bit from when Brien Taylor and Tony Mandarich were prospects 😂😂. I get it now. There’s an older generation that questions “can’t miss” because they remember things 30+ years ago. That’s not what happens anymore. When someone is “can’t miss” in 2024, you don’t miss. 
 

Andrew Luck was can’t miss. He was elite for a short period of time. If you say, “yeah but Trevor Lawrence on here” you can find my takes dating back to college when I said that he was the most overrated prospect that I had seen. When you brought up random failures from 30 years ago I dismissed your opinion. 

[4merper4mer]

15 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It’s a 🔥🔥🔥take to say that he will be the 5th or 6th best WR in the class 😂. That’s absurd. He’s 80 catches, 1,200 yards and 8 TDs when he gets off the bus as a rookie. If you read that report, he’s the highest graded WR that Pro Football Outsiders (who I think we all respect) has ever scouted.
 

In case you hadn’t noticed, scouting has evolved quite a bit in recent times 😂😂. Technology and analytics have changed things quite a bit from when Brien Taylor and Tony Mandarich were prospects 😂😂. I get it now. There’s an older generation that questions “can’t miss” because they remember things 30+ years ago. That’s not what happens anymore. When someone is “can’t miss” in 2024, you don’t miss. 
 

Andrew Luck was can’t miss. He was elite for a short period of time. If you say, “yeah but Trevor Lawrence on here” you can find my takes dating back to college when I said that he was the most overrated prospect that I had seen. When you brought up random failures from 30 years ago I dismissed your opinion. 

Lol ok.  If everything is pre-ordained as you say why don’t you tell us all the next five Super Bowl, World Series and Kentucky Derby winners?  Or just keep the info for yourself and make $$$$$$$$$$?

 

Andrew Luck was “elite” until the game was on the line, but let’s not let facts and actual results get in the way.  If you want something more recent maybe you recall the phrase “wrong Josh”.  How did that one work out?  Would you say Lamar Jackson is having a better career than Sam Darnold?

 

Evan Carter wasn’t on any top prospect lists except for the Rangers.  Guess who just helped them win the World Series?   He hadn’t cracked Baseball America’s top 500!  Modern scouting isn’t perfect.

 

https://www.mlb.com/rangers/news/featured/how-evan-carter-became-the-rangers-second-round-draft-pick-in-2020

 

 

Edited February 11 by 4merper4mer

[Kirby Jackson]

8 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Lol ok.  If everything is pre-ordained as you say why don’t you tell us all the next five Super Bowl, World Series and Kentucky Derby winners?  Or just keep the info for yourself and make $$$$$$$$$$?

 

Andrew Luck was “elite” until the game was on the line, but let’s not let facts and actual results get in the way.  If you want something more recent maybe you recall the phrase “wrong Josh”.  How did that one work out?  Would you say Lamar Jackson is having a better career than Sam Darnold?

 

Evan Carter wasn’t on any top prospect lists except for the Rangers.  Guess who just helped them win the World Series?   He hadn’t cracked Baseball America’s top 500!  Modern scouting isn’t perfect.

 

https://www.mlb.com/rangers/news/featured/how-evan-carter-became-the-rangers-second-round-draft-pick-in-2020

 

 

….”and Brock Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant and is starting in the Super Bowl.” 😂😂

 

I gave you an over under on MHJ as a rookie. Feel free to GO ON RECORD with your prediction of his rookie year. Don’t talk about it be about it. 
 

No one said anything about “pre-ordained.” Here are some things that WILL happen. Caleb Williams will be a very good pro. He will be a top 10-12 guy by 2025. MHJ will be a top 10-12 WR as a rookie. Travis Hunter will be a really good pro when he comes out after next season. Wembanyama will be dominant as he fills out. Etc…

[BADOLBILZ]

10 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

What does this have anything to do with my post?  I was analyzing top WRs and saw that it was half and half between 1st rd players and non-first rd players.  Given where the Bills draft and the type of player available at 28, the Bills seem destined to land a WR at that position.  After all, this is a WR thread. 

 

 If you want to read my thoughts on the draft at large, I posted a look at our most critical needs that might be filled in the draft.  I concluded that I expected to try to get a starting WR in the draft, then get rotational players early at DT and Edge followed by an eventual starter at S, but for next season I expected the starting S to come from free agency.  I then expect, because 3/5 of the Oline are on 1 year deals, for the Bills in add a center and OT in the middle rounds of the draft.  In the later rounds, I expect another DT, and depth players at TE, CB, LB and possible at RB depending on how the draft falls.

 

 

The point is to put your analysis in a broader perspective,  not to criticize your research on WR picks.

 

It's right that sometimes later WR picks turn out better than 1st rounders........but people could easily misconstrue that same isolated data to justify not taking a WR early and instead drafting for immediate need.

 

The reality is that the X and Z WR positions are among the premium "edge/island" positions where great individual talent is hard for an opponent to suppress and prevent from changing games.  

 

And subsequently those are the ones that are hardest to address with quality.........they rarely show up in free agency unless they are old(see Von Miller to Bills) or injured/washed.    That's why you take swings at those positions early in drafts.

[Dr. Who]

26 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It’s a 🔥🔥🔥take to say that he will be the 5th or 6th best WR in the class 😂. That’s absurd. He’s 80 catches, 1,200 yards and 8 TDs when he gets off the bus as a rookie. If you read that report, he’s the highest graded WR that Pro Football Outsiders (who I think we all respect) has ever scouted.
 

In case you hadn’t noticed, scouting has evolved quite a bit in recent times 😂😂. Technology and analytics have changed things quite a bit from when Brien Taylor and Tony Mandarich were prospects 😂😂. I get it now. There’s an older generation that questions “can’t miss” because they remember things 30+ years ago. That’s not what happens anymore. When someone is “can’t miss” in 2024, you don’t miss. 
 

Andrew Luck was can’t miss. He was elite for a short period of time. If you say, “yeah but Trevor Lawrence on here” you can find my takes dating back to college when I said that he was the most overrated prospect that I had seen. When you brought up random failures from 30 years ago I dismissed your opinion. 

There's no doubt the evaluative process is immensely more sophisticated. I do think you are correct that putting in significant chips on WR and concentrating on giving Josh Allen the best weapons possible is the right strategy. Folks like to say, in effect, that Allen is a force multiplier. Some take from that the view that having decent weapons is enough, because Allen will maximize what they have to offer. Well, a big reason Josh Allen does not have a ring yet is that you are multiplying too many substandard weapons for pretty much the entirety of his career. I like the emergence of Shakir, Cook, and Kincaid. That is promising, but I'm not sure how much Diggs will rebound, and the deficit at WR is the main reason the fan base is correctly reactive, rather than confident about the post-season.

 

Your prescription should result in other teams being afraid of us. Why should it always be "let's worry about containing Mahomes and Kelce" or stopping Tyreek Hill and the potency of other teams' offense? We ought to be a juggernaut offense that terrifies the opponent. Then our D becomes much more effective, because the other team must continually match our success. All that said, it's so unlikely that MHJ or Nabers will become available, it is largely an academic exercise as to what combination of picks might entice a team picking in the top 5 to trade down to #28. The most prudent, possible action is to draft the best WR early, allowing for a trade up to secure someone if necessary, and then in a deep draft at the position, picking several others, so that you have a greater chance of hitting difference makers.

 

Here, I'll throw out another possibility, which may get universally flamed. If Bowers begins to fall to the middle of the first, I treat him as a mismatch WR, and go get him. (And of course, in the unlikely event that one of the top two WRs is a possibility, I agree it is worth the risk.)

Edited February 11 by Dr. Who

[4merper4mer]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

….”and Brock Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant and is starting in the Super Bowl.” 😂😂

 

I gave you an over under on MHJ as a rookie. Feel free to GO ON RECORD with your prediction of his rookie year. Don’t talk about it be about it. 
 

No one said anything about “pre-ordained.” Here are some things that WILL happen. Caleb Williams will be a very good pro. He will be a top 10-12 guy by 2025. MHJ will be a top 10-12 WR as a rookie. Travis Hunter will be a really good pro when he comes out after next season. Wembanyama will be dominant as he fills out. Etc…

What do the following players have in common?

Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, Jalen Raegor?

 

[Kirby Jackson]

32 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

What do the following players have in common?

Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, Jalen Raegor?

 

None of them were picked in the top 10

[mrags]

47 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

….”and Brock Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant and is starting in the Super Bowl.” 😂😂

 

I gave you an over under on MHJ as a rookie. Feel free to GO ON RECORD with your prediction of his rookie year. Don’t talk about it be about it. 
 

No one said anything about “pre-ordained.” Here are some things that WILL happen. Caleb Williams will be a very good pro. He will be a top 10-12 guy by 2025. MHJ will be a top 10-12 WR as a rookie. Travis Hunter will be a really good pro when he comes out after next season. Wembanyama will be dominant as he fills out. Etc…

I’ll go on record that MHJ won’t finish as a top 3 WR from this class.  Or really a shock. I’m picking the field against most 1 guy. But….. the experts would have you believe this guy is a lock for canton right now before he’s even drafted. 

[Kirby Jackson]

6 minutes ago, mrags said:

I’ll go on record that MHJ won’t finish as a top 3 WR from this class.  Or really a shock. I’m picking the field against most 1 guy. But….. the experts would have you believe this guy is a lock for canton right now before he’s even drafted. 

He is the highest rated WR prospect in pro football outsiders history. There’s no holes in his game. That makes him different. He isn’t “a good guy.” He has as good of a skillset as any WR that they’ve scouted and a HOF dad (who was a fraction of his size). Odunze and Nabers are great prospects as well but a tier below MHJ.