LABILLBACKER Posted February 10 Posted February 10 On 2/8/2024 at 12:17 PM, GASabresIUFan said: I looked at the WR stat this past season and 13 receivers finished in the top 25 in Catches, Yards, and 20+ plays. Of the 13, 7 were drafted in the 1st rd and 6 were drafted in round 2-5. 3 of the top 4, Hill, St. Brown, and Nacua were drafted in the 4th or 5th round. Of the 7 1st rd players, Lamb, DJ Moore, Aiyuk, Evans, Chase, Olave, and DeVonta Smith, 3 were top 10 picks, 2 from picks 11-20, and 2 in the last 3rd. There is also no size requirement, except being at least 6 feet tall. Hill and Moore were the only players under 6 feet. Of the remaining 11, 5 were 6-2 or taller. Evans was the tallest and heaviest at 6'5 231. DeVonta Smith was the lightest at 170, followed by Olave at 187 and Hill at 191. The other 10 were 200 lbs or greater. The point of this analysis is that the Bills will probably get an impact WR in the first, but there is also a really good chance that the WR drafted later in the draft could emerge as the better player of the two. I'm fine with that. Just don't give up a ton of trade capital to trade up in the 1st. They'll be a very good wr fall to us @ 28. Get a 1T and FS in the 2nd & 3rd and turn around and grab another quality wr in the 4th. 1 1 2 Quote
BillsFanForever19 Posted February 10 Posted February 10 (edited) 1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said: I'm fine with that. Just don't give up a ton of trade capital to trade up in the 1st. They'll be a very good wr fall to us @ 28. Get a 1T and FS in the 2nd & 3rd and turn around and grab another quality wr in the 4th. Amen. Beane isn't going to do a massive trade up. Though given both his past with moving up a few spots for the guy he wants, the amount of picks we have, and with missing out last season after a run of FOUR WR's going in a row - I almost expect him to move up 2-3 picks to make sure he gets the guy he loves. But with Diggs (who isn't going anywhere, no matter how hard some people confusingly want to try to move on from him right now), Shakir, and Kincaid in house already, the addition of a 1st Round Pick, the amount of holes we have to fill, and the depth at WR in this Draft - I also see Round 4 as the soonest we should double dip our toes back into the water at WR. Get your #2, future #1 WR in Round 1. Get young starters at DL and S in Rounds 2 and 3. Don't spend a Day 2 pick on a WR who won't be better than 5th in targets behind Diggs, Round 1, Shakir, and Kincaid this season. Especially when we need Starters at 3, possibly 4 spots on Defense. And like I said, given the depth of the class, a Round 4 WR could still turn out to be very good. Edited February 10 by BillsFanForever19 6 1 2 Quote
LABILLBACKER Posted February 10 Posted February 10 24 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said: Amen. Beane isn't going to do a massive trade up. Though given both his past with moving up a few spots for the guy he wants, the amount of picks we have, and with missing out last season after a run of FOUR WR's going in a row - I almost expect him to move up 2-3 picks to make sure he gets the guy he loves. But with Diggs (who isn't going anywhere, no matter how hard some people confusingly want to try to move him from right now), Shakir, and Kincaid in house already, the addition of a 1st Round Pick, the amount of holes we have to fill, and the depth at WR in this Draft - I also see Round 4 as the soonest we should double dip our toes back into the water at WR. Get your #2, future #1 WR in Round 1. Get young starters at DL and S in Rounds 2 and 3. Don't spend a Day 2 pick on a WR who won't be better than 5th in targets behind Diggs, Round 1, Shakir, and Kincaid this season. Especially when we need Starters at 3, possibly 4 spots on Defense. And like I said, given the depth of the class, a Round 4 WR could still turn out to be very good. I'm also optimistic that Shorter & Hamler make the team. The 1st round wr replaces Gabe and the 4th rounder replaces Sherfield, Harty. Diggs will play next season but beyond that who knows? 1 Quote
mrags Posted February 10 Posted February 10 3 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said: Mcd has shown us in these 7 yrs that's he's not gonna change much. He loves his Dline rotation and he loves having old vets on the team especially at running back he loves having a old man in the bk field from Tolbert to Gore to Murray. I'm not a big fan of his rotations myself most teams have a top 4 that plays most of the game . When it comes to Jenkins Jr he can add some weight maybe not 20 lbs but 10 for sure that would put him at 315lbs and it's not just the weight that matters it's adding strength. He's got power already just needs some work with technique and anchoring. I think the kid can become a flat out beast a pro bowl type player. I agree with you thoughts except the outlook on Jenkins. I just don’t see it. I watched a scouting video on him that showed he was basically taken out of most plays. I just don’t see the power. I also don’t see him being able to gain much more weight on his frame. He just looks like a finished product to me and I don’t think there’s much upside to him. Maybe I’m wrong and if we draft him, I hope I’m wrong. I would rather just get a guy that’s 315+ already and plug and play for run support right off the bat instead of hoping the guy can mold into something we are looking for. Think Jenkins is in more of the pass rush role. I see him losing 10lbs and trying his best to be a solid 3T or 5T Quote
GunnerBill Posted February 10 Posted February 10 4 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said: I'm not a big fan of his rotations myself most teams have a top 4 that plays most of the game . Not true. I cunched the numbers the other day. Of the top teams KC have 3 who play 65%+ but nobody at 70% and nobody else above about 40%. They are the closest to a consistent 4 that plays most of the game. The Bills had Ed at 70% and Greg at 60% then a chunk of guys 40-55%. That is in line with the likes of the 9ers, the Eagles, the Ravens, the Lions (nobody above 55% except Hutch who plays 90!!) and the Cowboys. And the league is trending to more rotation not less - with the exception of a handful of the very top individuals (Hutch, TJ, Crosby etc) and we don't have one of those. I think when McDermott arrived 7 years ago he was probably ahead of the curve on rotating DL but the league has caught up now and almost everyone rushes in waves rotating guys in and out. Quote
Dr. Who Posted February 10 Posted February 10 44 minutes ago, mrags said: I agree with you thoughts except the outlook on Jenkins. I just don’t see it. I watched a scouting video on him that showed he was basically taken out of most plays. I just don’t see the power. I also don’t see him being able to gain much more weight on his frame. He just looks like a finished product to me and I don’t think there’s much upside to him. Maybe I’m wrong and if we draft him, I hope I’m wrong. I would rather just get a guy that’s 315+ already and plug and play for run support right off the bat instead of hoping the guy can mold into something we are looking for. Think Jenkins is in more of the pass rush role. I see him losing 10lbs and trying his best to be a solid 3T or 5T Who are your 1T targets? If Sweat comes within range in the 2nd, I can even see them moving up to get him. I have no idea if they can play 1T, but I like Jordan Jefferson as a mid-round pick, or maybe Jowon Briggs late. @GunnerBill may have some suggestions. 1 Quote
GunnerBill Posted February 10 Posted February 10 24 minutes ago, Dr. Who said: Who are your 1T targets? If Sweat comes within range in the 2nd, I can even see them moving up to get him. I have no idea if they can play 1T, but I like Jordan Jefferson as a mid-round pick, or maybe Jowon Briggs late. @GunnerBill may have some suggestions. I haven't got deep into the DTs yet to know who I like later. Of the possible early guys - love Newton. Top 10 player in this class for me. Think Murphy is a borderline first round type. Jenkins I like round 2 but if you are a 4-3 team I'd move him down almost a full round and Sweat is a late 2nd grade wise but I can imagine him going higher. He is the first 1T type but he has more pass rush potential than he gets credit for. 1 Quote
DJB Posted February 10 Posted February 10 Nabers is still my WR1 . I know it’s controversial but he’s explosive and a difference maker on all levels 1 Quote
Dr. Who Posted February 10 Posted February 10 36 minutes ago, DJB said: Nabers is still my WR1 . I know it’s controversial but he’s explosive and a difference maker on all levels I would love to get him, but the cost would be prohibitive, and you have to find a team willing to trade down from a top ten pick. 1 Quote
EmotionallyUnstable Posted February 10 Posted February 10 (edited) 6 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said: I'm fine with that. Just don't give up a ton of trade capital to trade up in the 1st. They'll be a very good wr fall to us @ 28. Get a 1T and FS in the 2nd & 3rd and turn around and grab another quality wr in the 4th. I was on this train of thought but wonder if there is room, or if necessary, to bring in 2 rooks this year : Diggs Rookie (RD1) Shakir Harty Shorter Rookie (RD4?) In all likelihood a round 4 Wr will not see the field all that much in their rookie year. In addition, would it be a player at this point in the draft coming in with minimal experience that would offer more than Shorter? I think those mid round picks will be better spent on retooling the DL, secondary or OL. These are picks that could be guys that play significant snaps to maximize their rookie deals. We must keep the talent young and constant at WR, and I think taking one yearly moving forward early in the draft is a must…I just want them playing when you take them. I think bringing in a premier talent this year will be sufficient for now given the state of the offensive skill position support (Kincaid, Knox, Cook, etc) on top of the WRs we currently have (Diggs, Rook, Shakir). Adding a vet this year to the WR room might be more beneficial, having some experience in depth, and might fill the Sherfield Special teams hole. Then the next draft in 2025, we again look at WR early, and hopefully have struck gold on WR at 28 the year prior, and are poised to keep the talent young and flowing in a world without Diggs, or with him in a supportive role. WRs in 2025 Rookie from ‘24 (pick 28?) Diggs WR2 Shakir (contract year) Rookie from ‘25 Shorter Vet Edited February 10 by EmotionallyUnstable Quote
DJB Posted February 10 Posted February 10 (edited) 52 minutes ago, Dr. Who said: I would love to get him, but the cost would be prohibitive, and you have to find a team willing to trade down from a top ten pick. Agreed. Hes my guy and I can see him going top 5 This is as similar to a Julio / AJ Green type situation. Two elite WR’s just depends on what flavour you’d like Edited February 10 by DJB 1 Quote
Green Lightning Posted February 10 Posted February 10 6 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said: Amen. Beane isn't going to do a massive trade up. Though given both his past with moving up a few spots for the guy he wants, the amount of picks we have, and with missing out last season after a run of FOUR WR's going in a row - I almost expect him to move up 2-3 picks to make sure he gets the guy he loves. But with Diggs (who isn't going anywhere, no matter how hard some people confusingly want to try to move on from him right now), Shakir, and Kincaid in house already, the addition of a 1st Round Pick, the amount of holes we have to fill, and the depth at WR in this Draft - I also see Round 4 as the soonest we should double dip our toes back into the water at WR. Get your #2, future #1 WR in Round 1. Get young starters at DL and S in Rounds 2 and 3. Don't spend a Day 2 pick on a WR who won't be better than 5th in targets behind Diggs, Round 1, Shakir, and Kincaid this season. Especially when we need Starters at 3, possibly 4 spots on Defense. And like I said, given the depth of the class, a Round 4 WR could still turn out to be very good. 100% agree. While there's depth in WRs, potential WR1, X tall, fast, field stretchers will be gone by day 2. 1 Quote
Prospector Posted February 10 Posted February 10 2 hours ago, Dr. Who said: Who are your 1T targets? If Sweat comes within range in the 2nd, I can even see them moving up to get him. I have no idea if they can play 1T, but I like Jordan Jefferson as a mid-round pick, or maybe Jowon Briggs late. @GunnerBill may have some suggestions. That Fabian dude from FSU, Evan Anderson is an interesting small school prospect, and Rogers from A&M all seem to have size and strength 1 Quote
mrags Posted February 10 Posted February 10 2 hours ago, Dr. Who said: Who are your 1T targets? If Sweat comes within range in the 2nd, I can even see them moving up to get him. I have no idea if they can play 1T, but I like Jordan Jefferson as a mid-round pick, or maybe Jowon Briggs late. @GunnerBill may have some suggestions. I admittedly don’t know much about any of them. I don’t watch college ball so I’m limited to scouting reports and highlight vids mostly. Every year around this time I start doing mock drafts out of boredom and when guys I’m aware of are taken I start watching vids of the guys still left on the board in those spots. I haven’t gotten to many DTs. But of the ones I’ve seen I love Sweat. Guy is a beast. Love his size and power. Has it in him to be the best DL in the draft if things go right for him. I probably would take him as 28 because of the need at WR. I’d hope to get him in the 2nd rd. Either with a trade back to pick up extra picks, or a trade up into the 2nd if he falls a little bit more than expected. But I don’t see that happening after his week at the senior bowl. after him, of the guys that I’ve watched, I like McKinley Jackson in the 3rd Rd or later, and also like Jordan Jefferson in the mid rounds also. Also like Braden Fiske and Masson Smith. I’ve also seen a little of Gabe Hall and Justin Rogers. Want to look at them more. I dont think Hall is that space eater that we need but haven’t seen enough of him. overall the only guy I’d take at RD 2 would be Sweat and then Jackson at 3. After that they are rd 4 or after. Probably highest on Jefferson after that but I think he might have personality issues. I don’t have a problem with it that much considering the position he plays and we need nasty. But I doubt McDermott dips his foot in that pool. 1 Quote
Low Positive Posted February 10 Posted February 10 Remember, at least one of the top guys will be a bust and someone taken in the 4-6 round will end up being better than all but 2 or 3 of these “can’t-miss” WRs in this “deep” class. At least one of these college superstars will turn out to not be able to separate or make catches in tight windows and another one will end up having a really bad attitude and/or work ethic. For every Justin Jefferson there is a Jalen Reagor and a Henry Ruggs. It’s just the way it goes. Quote
GunnerBill Posted February 10 Posted February 10 40 minutes ago, mrags said: I admittedly don’t know much about any of them. I don’t watch college ball so I’m limited to scouting reports and highlight vids mostly. Every year around this time I start doing mock drafts out of boredom and when guys I’m aware of are taken I start watching vids of the guys still left on the board in those spots. I haven’t gotten to many DTs. But of the ones I’ve seen I love Sweat. Guy is a beast. Love his size and power. Has it in him to be the best DL in the draft if things go right for him. I probably would take him as 28 because of the need at WR. I’d hope to get him in the 2nd rd. Either with a trade back to pick up extra picks, or a trade up into the 2nd if he falls a little bit more than expected. But I don’t see that happening after his week at the senior bowl. after him, of the guys that I’ve watched, I like McKinley Jackson in the 3rd Rd or later, and also like Jordan Jefferson in the mid rounds also. Also like Braden Fiske and Masson Smith. I’ve also seen a little of Gabe Hall and Justin Rogers. Want to look at them more. I dont think Hall is that space eater that we need but haven’t seen enough of him. overall the only guy I’d take at RD 2 would be Sweat and then Jackson at 3. After that they are rd 4 or after. Probably highest on Jefferson after that but I think he might have personality issues. I don’t have a problem with it that much considering the position he plays and we need nasty. But I doubt McDermott dips his foot in that pool. Fiske was excellent at the Senior Bowl but still need to dig into his tape. Quote
GASabresIUFan Posted February 10 Posted February 10 1 hour ago, EmotionallyUnstable said: Harty I don’t think he’ll be back next season. Too much cap benefit to moving on especially if they retain Hines after a contract restructure. I do believe Beane will draft a 2nd WR in the 5th (we have 2 5th rd picks), but if they like Shorter and release Harty maybe they sign a cheap vet instead. 2 Quote
Solomon Grundy Posted February 11 Posted February 11 On 2/7/2024 at 8:05 PM, EmotionallyUnstable said: I think I have Stockholm syndrome. The more I read about the WRs that likely will be available at 28, the more I am thinking they should take the best defensive lineman available. 2nd round WR in 2024 1sr round WR in 2025 Tell me I’m sick. This is what happens after years of abuse. Okay, I'll tell you. You're sick!! 1 1 Quote
Richard Noggin Posted February 11 Posted February 11 13 hours ago, DJB said: Nabers is still my WR1 . I know it’s controversial but he’s explosive and a difference maker on all levels Too bad we can't bring him home to The City of Good Nabers 1 1 Quote
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