2024 WR Draft Class

[Warriorspikes51]

9 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

After everything all offseason.  Im back to where I was when Texas beat Alabama.  What would Worthy look like with a Qb like Josh Allen.  His ability to separate while tracking a ball in the air deep is rare.  Desean Jackson Randy Moss rare.   Played all over the formation at Texas.  He is a fast football player not a fast guy playing football.   

 

IMO, if we aren't moving up for one of the 3 or BTJ,  strong chance we move up a few or stay at 28 for him. 

 

He meets the "explosive" aspect and then some.  His route running is underrated IMO.  Puts guys in a blender 

 

Assuming he isn't drafted higher.  

[DCOrange]

2 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

I just don't get it.    Why are so many suddenly on the McConkey train here?   Okay, could he turn out to be very good....sure.

But, we already have similar types of player at WR and TE

Unless I'm mistaken, I thought McConkey was AWFUL against man coverage.

This team needs someone who can win against physical man coverage in the playoffs....or it's already over. 

McConkey’s YPRR this season against man was pedestrian (granted small sample size since he missed time), especially compared to his YPRR vs. zone where he was dominant.

 

Matt Harmon has McConkey as #4 in the class vs. man coverage out of the 16 he’s charted now.

 

I agree with the concerns about too many similar skillsets and particularly with none of them being a good fit at the X. For comparison’s sake, Harmon has Legette charted as the 16th out of 16 against man coverage (though I know his numbers on Tez Walker will be dead last once he publishes him on the website; he has Tez as I believe the worst he’s ever charted lol) and has Legette at the the bottom against press coverage too (McConkey is also at the bottom).

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, gonzo1105 said:

While I am a big Tez Walker fan, he had a horrible senior bowl, he has limited tape against high end comp, he has clinical depression which was highlighted in his college career. He needs to become a better route runner as well 

Adding on to this, his advanced metrics just aren’t very good and I think his tape at UNC was frankly very bad. 
 

He’s basically just a flier based on his physical tools but he’s nearly 23 years old which isn’t ideal for taking that sort of gamble. I think he’s a fine Day 3 pick but I’d be disappointed if we take him anywhere in the first 4 rounds or so. 

[jahnyc]

Seems like there are a lot of questions about the WRs available in the draft after you get past the top three and probably Thomas as well.  I thought Mitchell would be the guy, but I now think that character questions will disqualify him as a possibility for the Bills.  Starting to warm up to Worthy and Franklin, but I am not sure they are good value at 28 in the first round.

[gonzo1105]

5 minutes ago, jahnyc said:

Seems like there are a lot of questions about the WRs available in the draft after you get past the top three and probably Thomas as well.  I thought Mitchell would be the guy, but I now think that character questions will disqualify him as a possibility for the Bills.  Starting to warm up to Worthy and Franklin, but I am not sure they are good value at 28 in the first round.

Thomas has questions to but most suspect he’ll grow into a complete WR but he still has work to do to but I think he’s as sure a bet after the top 3 imo 

[34-78-83]

3 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Teams do not play man defense much anymore. It’s like 65% zone league.

 

The Bills need speed to offset their underneath WRs. My guys are Brian Thomas and Worthy. I don’t want McConkey but I prefer him over Legette. 

 

 

I think most serious football fans in these type of discussions know that teams play a lot more zone now. What some here are referring to in most cases when they reference needing a WR who can beat man is our need to have players that are able to win vs the clutching and grabbing type man coverage that is legalized (unwritten rule) in the NFL playoffs every year. Credit folks like @BADOLBILZ for pointing this out many times previously.

 

With that said it comes down to those folks wanting a type of WR that can consistently win against those tactics. After that, it comes down to trying to judge these draft prospects in that area. I am not sold that looking purely at their numbers vs man or press man in college alone are going to provide those complete answers. Sometimes its a little more obvious than that, ie. some athleticism/size combinations just win more easily vs those tactics.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

My guys:

 

Rome Odunze

Brian Thomas Jr

Xavier Worthy

Javon Baker

Jamari Thrash 

 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

7 hours ago, 34-78-83 said:

I think most serious football fans in these type of discussions know that teams play a lot more zone now. What some here are referring to in most cases when they reference needing a WR who can beat man is our need to have players that are able to win vs the clutching and grabbing type man coverage that is legalized (unwritten rule) in the NFL playoffs every year. Credit folks like @BADOLBILZ for pointing this out many times previously.

 

With that said it comes down to those folks wanting a type of WR that can consistently win against those tactics. After that, it comes down to trying to judge these draft prospects in that area. I am not sold that looking purely at their numbers vs man or press man in college alone are going to provide those complete answers. Sometimes its a little more obvious than that, ie. some athleticism/size combinations just win more easily vs those tactics.

Good post. 
 

I also think this data is difficult to really mine. Especially in the NFL, with so many mixed coverages, simply looking at “man vs. zone” doesn’t nearly give any insight into what the specific skills are that are needed to win within either of these scenarios. For example, within a match zone coverage, defenders are essentially playing man, depending on how things shake out. So what, from a receivers abilities stand point, do people mean when they say they want someone who can win vs man?

 

For me: 

 

- Can you get off the LOS? 
- Can you stay pure in your route not allowing disruption?

- Are you strong at the top of your route?
- Are you nuisanced enough to position yourself to cleanly break while a defender is in phase? 

- Are your routes clean enough (quick/efficient) to provide room to win? 
- Can you threaten with long stride speed?

- Can you make contested catches? 
- Are you reliable within traffic? 
- Are you a dog? How tenacious are you? Effort? 
 

Although some of these can be applied to looking at how a player performs vs zone, I think a lot of the above qualities are that which are generally thought of when people say “he’s gotta win vs man coverage” and can also be said of the traditional X receiver. 

[Donuts and Doritos]

 

 

[MrEpsYtown]

I am still in the same camp. 

 

I want one of the top 3 and feel they are unattainable. 

 

I want them to draft one of Brain Thomas Jr. or AD Mitchell. I think these two guys are ideal fits. 

 

I think they will draft 1 of Franklin, Worthy, or McConkey. These guys represent what Beane was saying he wants in a WR. 

[CapeBreton]

I want Xavier Worthy but they'd need to trade up for him, can't imagine him being there at 28. Adonai Mitchell would be a nice consolation prize though.

[Brandon]

15 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

 

I think they will draft 1 of Franklin, Worthy, or McConkey. These guys represent what Beane was saying he wants in a WR. 

 

Agreed,  but I would also add Pearsall to that group.  

[OldTimer1960]

39 minutes ago, Brandon said:

 

Agreed,  but I would also add Pearsall to that group.  

I don’t think Franklin or Pearsall are really in play in round 1, but heck we don’t really know what the teams think about these prospects.

[Brandon]

10 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I don’t think Franklin or Pearsall are really in play in round 1, but heck we don’t really know what the teams think about these prospects.

 

I think they're both more like top 40 guys,  but I would not be surprised to see one of them sneak into the last few picks of R1,  especially if the WR run starts earlier than expected.  

 

I'd also add,  I think the Bills value speed,  separation and route running with less concern over size.  If that's true, it would seem to put those two in consideration for the Bills.  

Edited April 23 by Brandon

[TOboy]

1 hour ago, CapeBreton said:

I want Xavier Worthy but they'd need to trade up for him, can't imagine him being there at 28. Adonai Mitchell would be a nice consolation prize though.

Most mocks I’ve seen have Mitchell off the board before Worthy. 

[DCOrange]

22 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I don’t think Franklin or Pearsall are really in play in round 1, but heck we don’t really know what the teams think about these prospects.

I don’t expect either to go in the first, but I’m guessing one or two of those teams that rely pretty heavily on analytics will have Franklin high up on their WR big board. I don’t think we are that team. 

Edited April 23 by DCOrange

[HeHateMe]

We don't have a starting caliber outside WR on the roster unless Shorter becomes something...  

 

IMO we need to trade up for BTJ or hope AD falls to us... I'm not in love with Ladd..  Nice player but kind of more of the same and yes I know he played a lot outside in college but he's undersized and hurt a lot.  I don't see how that gets better in the big League..

[HappyDays]

Bruce Feldman published his annual draft confidential article:

 

https://theathletic.com/5431528/2024/04/23/nfl-draft-2024-confidential-nabers-harrison-williams?source=user-shared-article

 

Here are the most interesting nuggets on the top WRs:

 

Quote

-Malik Nabers is apparently the consensus #1 over Marvin Harrison Jr. This echoes what I heard Chris Simms say the other day. Harrison is the higher floor but Nabers' explosiveness gives him a higher ceiling. Nabers comes with less discipline though. I wouldn't be surprised if Arizona still picks Harrison first just because he is such a safe pick.

 

-The feedback on Brian Thomas Jr is surprisingly poor. Coaches talking about his lack of a route tree, lack of ball skills, lack of physicality, lack of that edge that WRs need to be elite. FWIW these are the same exact concerns I have about him.

 

-On Xavier Worthy, a couple coaches specifically point out that he is NOT John Ross as a prospect, specifically that his route running is better. One coach says "he's really impressive to talk to" and praised his mentality. This sounds like a player Brandon Beane would love, although I doubt he makes it to #28.

 

 

Edited April 23 by HappyDays

[MrEpsYtown]

58 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I don’t think Franklin or Pearsall are really in play in round 1, but heck we don’t really know what the teams think about these prospects.

 

I think Franklin is but I don't think Pearsall is. 

[DCOrange]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Bruce Feldman published his annual draft confidential article:

 

https://theathletic.com/5431528/2024/04/23/nfl-draft-2024-confidential-nabers-harrison-williams?source=user-shared-article

 

Here are the most interesting nuggets on the top WRs:

 

 

I feel like the Thomas notes were just a mixed bag. A lot of complimentary stuff and a lot of concerns too. Feels like that’s kind of the case with everyone beyond the top 3. 
 

The mentality stuff with Worthy is interesting. Mel Kiper echoed that too, saying he’s one of those guys that will play through injury and do whatever it takes to help the team win. That just doesn’t show up on the field IMO. His effort blocking is a joke and he has the same effort issues on his routes that Mitchell has. Feels like more bark than bite to me.

 

Always a good read even if I sometimes feel like I’m watching different players from the guys they’re describing. Like the Nabers > Harrison stuff…at least these guys are going fairly in depth about why they feel that way. Same with the Daniels > Maye stuff even if I don’t see what they see. 

Edited April 23 by DCOrange