2024 WR Draft Class

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

This pretty interesting. Betting props for draft position. 
 

Harrison 4.5

Nabers 5.5

Odunze 8.5

Thomas jr 17.5

Mitchell 17.5

Worthy 28.5

McConkey 32.5

Franklin 41.5

Legette 44.5

Coleman 48.5
 

 

 

The over on Mitchell is free money.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

The over on Mitchell is free money.

I’m thinking about it. But Seattle seems to be a team the Bills could trade up to.

[OldTimer1960]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I would. I'd go Legette, but would not freak out over Mitchell or Worthy. I think Ladd, Franklin, Coleman would all leave me feeling slightly cold but then you have to look in the context of the board at the time etc. 

It seems to me that McConkey and Worthy have relatively high floors.  McConkey should be a reliable player who is frequently open, even if he isn’t a major deep threat. Worthy seems certain to be at least a dangerous weapon deep, but may not have the bulk or hands to be a consistent chain mover. 
 

Mitchell and Coleman seem to have more bust potential.  Mitchell because of alleged effort issues and Coleman trying to get open in the league.  Franklin just scares me after the combine- he looked a lot smoother and a better route runner in games than at the combine.

[OldTimer1960]

3 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I do not see Beane going WR in 1 and 2.  We have too many needs.

They do have too many needs - and I don’t think it is realistic that they will fill them all in this draft.  For all the talk of owning “so many picks”, they only have 2 of the first 127 picks.  My view has changed to finding the best players they can at important positions and just expect to have some unmet needs this year.  If that means the first two picks are WR because they are the best players, so be it.

3 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Here are your needs:
 

 

 

WR

WR

 

 

 

 

Safety

RB 2 

DL Depth

OL Depth

LB Depth

I would put pass rush up there with WR.  If Miller is no better than he was last year the that important position will be split between Epenesa and Toohill.

[Turk71]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I’m thinking about it. But Seattle seems to be a team the Bills could trade up to.

Why would the Bills trade up for Mitchell? That would be dumb

[Buffalo_Stampede]

5 minutes ago, Turk71 said:

Why would the Bills trade up for Mitchell? That would be dumb

If he’s the guy they want.

[DCOrange]

9 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

 

 

Apparently he's hard to place. IIRC, he says Franklin could go anywhere from 1st to 3rd round.

 

For me, the knocks on Franklin matter less considering his role: If the issue is that he's slight and less physical, that's ok because I'm imagining him immediately opening things up just running deep routes because you have Samuel, Kincaid and Cook for underneath.

 

I believe Harmon will be publishing Troy Franklin's profile tomorrow. He just posted his metrics in his Discord chat. Basic gist of it:

• Average against man coverage (slightly ahead of Brian Thomas)
• Very good against zone coverage (slightly ahead of Ricky Pearsall)
• Bad against press coverage (a little better than Keon Coleman but a little worse than Xavier Worthy)
• His success rates on different route types suggest he's essentially only successful running vertical routes and curls
• One of the people in the Discord chat compared him to Marvin Mims coming out of Oklahoma, to which Harmon said it's not a bad comparison, but Franklin is a better route runner than Mims was.
• Going purely off of the data, my guess would be he lands around Xavier Worthy in the "Priority Round 2" tier (somewhere in the WR7-9 range).

 

[gonzo1105]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The over on Mitchell is free money.

If it looks that easy it isn’t. I’ve learned that in Sports gambling. They know something we don’t. Someone speculated Mitchell would go top 20 on here a bit back. 
 

Someone is going to take a chance on his traits earlier than his tape warrants 

[LEBills]

41 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I believe Harmon will be publishing Troy Franklin's profile tomorrow. He just posted his metrics in his Discord chat. Basic gist of it:

• Average against man coverage (slightly ahead of Brian Thomas)
• Very good against zone coverage (slightly ahead of Ricky Pearsall)
• Bad against press coverage (a little better than Keon Coleman but a little worse than Xavier Worthy)
• His success rates on different route types suggest he's essentially only successful running vertical routes and curls
• One of the people in the Discord chat compared him to Marvin Mims coming out of Oklahoma, to which Harmon said it's not a bad comparison, but Franklin is a better route runner than Mims was.
• Going purely off of the data, my guess would be he lands around Xavier Worthy in the "Priority Round 2" tier (somewhere in the WR7-9 range).

 

Thanks for this, interesting how what he sees varies a lot from what the analytic based scouting sees where Franklin grades out pretty well in all these categories. I don’t know the methodologies, but I’m guessing Franklins big plays against all the coverage types may boost his analytics profile and may mask some of the route to route deficiencies Harmon sees. 

[Big Blitz]

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I’m taking Nabers off my board.

 

 

[NewEra]

How many of ya’ll think the Dolphins are going to take Worthy with their first pick?  They’d be shrewd trade back and get some picks and still take the guy that they covet most.  If they can’t find a suitable trade partner, I think they pull the trigger at 21. 
 

Felt the same about Achane inevitably being drafted by Miami last year.  

[gonzo1105]

Just now, NewEra said:

How many of ya’ll think the Dolphins are going to take Worthy with their first pick?  They’d be shrewd trade back and get some picks and still take the guy that they covet most.  If they can’t find a suitable trade partner, I think they pull the trigger at 21. 
 

Felt the same about Achane inevitably being drafted by Miami last year.  

I think it’s a real possibility. They have spent a lot of time with him and people see DT as a huge hole because Wilkins left but they re-signed Seiler last year probably knowing full well they were going to let Wilkins go.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Interesting WR ranking.

 

 

[DCOrange]

27 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Interesting WR ranking.

 

 

I don't always agree with Thor, but he is at least willing to go against the grain with some of his takes. Also now the second person in two days to compare Troy Franklin to Marvin Mims.

Edited April 16 by DCOrange

[947]

19 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

It seems to me that McConkey and Worthy have relatively high floors.  McConkey should be a reliable player who is frequently open, even if he isn’t a major deep threat. Worthy seems certain to be at least a dangerous weapon deep, but may not have the bulk or hands to be a consistent chain mover.

 

I don't see Worthy as having a high floor at all. His floor is John Ross, which is a complete and utter bust & useless as an NFL player. He's a very risky player.

 

I think McConkey's floor is a decent NFL player, that's the definition of a high floor.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

 

[DCOrange]

15 hours ago, DCOrange said:

I believe Harmon will be publishing Troy Franklin's profile tomorrow. He just posted his metrics in his Discord chat. Basic gist of it:

• Average against man coverage (slightly ahead of Brian Thomas)
• Very good against zone coverage (slightly ahead of Ricky Pearsall)
• Bad against press coverage (a little better than Keon Coleman but a little worse than Xavier Worthy)
• His success rates on different route types suggest he's essentially only successful running vertical routes and curls
• One of the people in the Discord chat compared him to Marvin Mims coming out of Oklahoma, to which Harmon said it's not a bad comparison, but Franklin is a better route runner than Mims was.
• Going purely off of the data, my guess would be he lands around Xavier Worthy in the "Priority Round 2" tier (somewhere in the WR7-9 range).

 

Profiles for Franklin and Xavier Legette were posted today. Updated rankings:

1. MHJ - #1 out of 63 he's scouted since 2021, Top 10 pick
2. Rome Odunze - #3, Top 10 pick
3. Malik Nabers - #8, Top 10 pick
4. Brian Thomas Jr. - #12, Clear 1st rounder
5. Ricky Pearsall - #17, Late 1st/Very early 2nd
6. Ladd McConkey - #18, Late 1st/Very early 2nd
7. Adonai Mitchell - #20, Late 1st/Very early 2nd
8. Xavier Worthy - #25, Priority Round 2
9. Troy Franklin - #28, Priority Round 2
10. Keon Coleman - #33, Good Day 2 Option
11. Xavier Legette - #34, Good Day 2 Option
12. Roman Wilson - #50, Late 3rd/Early 4th

Franklin

• 58th percentile vs. man
• 72nd percentile vs. zone
• 26th percentile vs. press
• Does a great job stacking DBs when working downfield and also does a great job breaking off his routes to come back to the ball on curls
• His poor results against press coverage point towards potentially being more of a flanker WR rather than an X at the next level
• Doesn't look comfortable working over the middle of the field
• "Difficult evaluation because he has some nuance to his route running and the type of foundation you want to build on, but the lack of play strength and his frame really haunt him".
• "I don't know how you watch Franklin play and not come away concerned that he doesn't trust his hands"
• His relatively good base of fundamentals and route running should make him much more valuable than more limited vertical types (such as Valdes-Scantling). If he can bulk up some without sacrificing his speed and flexibility, he could be really good.

Legette

• 19th percentile vs. man
• 62nd percentile vs. zone
• 19th percentile vs. press
• Fits into the same bucket as Keon Coleman where Harmon believes he best projects as a big slot in the NFL
• Good timing working over the middle, finds windows in zone coverage and displayed the ability to keep those windows open as long as possible
• Transitions to run after the catch very well
• Raw route runner, struggles with isolated routes and "is not at a place in his development where he can win one-on-one
• His plan against press coverage is "wildly underdeveloped"
• "Hard not to be cautious when projecting an older prospect with this lack of seasoning"
• Stellar in contested catch situations and has good hands in general
• "If a coach wants to use Legette outside because of his physical gifts, the ceiling for this kind of guy is an Alshon Jeffery-type; a productive contested catch maven who has big seasons but is likely best as a complementary threat. Possibilities open up if he lands with a more creative coaching staff who has a vision for him beyond the X-receiver downfield combatant"

[section122]

1 hour ago, 947 said:

 

I don't see Worthy as having a high floor at all. His floor is John Ross, which is a complete and utter bust & useless as an NFL player. He's a very risky player.

 

I think McConkey's floor is a decent NFL player, that's the definition of a high floor.

 

How do you land on that?  Because both Ross and Worthy run fast?

 

I like both players before I go into this but here is some comparisons and why I like Worthy more:

 

McConkey had 1 game with 7 catches, 2 games with 6 catches, and 7 games with 5 catches.  In his career!  He had 9 games with 1 catch.

 

Worthy had 5 games with 6 or more catches just last year.  He had 2 games in his career with 1 catch.

 

McConkey's best year was 58 catches 762 yards and 7 tds.

 

Worthy's worst year was 60 catches, 760 yards, and 9 tds. (he did have a year with 5 tds but that came along with 75 catches for 1014 yards)

 

Admittedly McConkey did miss a chunk of time with injury last year which affected his stats but also he missed some time with knee back and ankle injuries through his career.  In my mind that is a strike against him.

 

 

[DJB]

14 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I’m taking Nabers off my board.

 

 

 

I think Odunze is the target anyways if we are moving up assuming Harrison is gone 

 

He clicks all the boxes especially the character and work ethic ones 

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

 

 

AD Mitchell continues to be my guy