2024 WR Draft Class

[racketmaster]

 If mock drafts and current adp is to be believed, i still believe Burton is a first round talent that can be had in the 2nd round. He passes the eye test and has the speed, burst, size, body control, hands you are looking for in a top end wr. He played in the SEC and regularly separated from top end dbs but played with a qb that was limited as a passer. If it were not for “character concerns”, Burton goes in the back end of round 1. The Bills will have to figure out if this guy is a head case or if the concerns have been over exaggerated. If they think he can fit in with the locker room, then I would jump at the chance of getting Burton in the second all day long. 
 

Not giving away big time assets to move up in first would allow the Bills to maneuver the board in the second and third and maybe grab a second wr like Polk, Leggett, Persall etc to pair with Burton. There are other positional players like DT Fiske that I would love to see the Bills draft but if they traded up for a wr in the first we are looking at just having day 3 picks left this year. 

[Dr. Who]

20 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

 If mock drafts and current adp is to be believed, i still believe Burton is a first round talent that can be had in the 2nd round. He passes the eye test and has the speed, burst, size, body control, hands you are looking for in a top end wr. He played in the SEC and regularly separated from top end dbs but played with a qb that was limited as a passer. If it were not for “character concerns”, Burton goes in the back end of round 1. The Bills will have to figure out if this guy is a head case or if the concerns have been over exaggerated. If they think he can fit in with the locker room, then I would jump at the chance of getting Burton in the second all day long. 
 

Not giving away big time assets to move up in first would allow the Bills to maneuver the board in the second and third and maybe grab a second wr like Polk, Leggett, Persall etc to pair with Burton. There are other positional players like DT Fiske that I would love to see the Bills draft but if they traded up for a wr in the first we are looking at just having day 3 picks left this year. 

I watched a podcast on the WRs in the draft, and the folks doing the analysis mentioned that Burton has been to six or eight schools going back to his high school days, so he has never stayed put for any extended period of time. They did not know what it meant, but you'd have to do your due diligence on the fella. The red flags for character may be more than slapping a Tennessee fan on the field.

[DCOrange]

39 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Can someone tell me how Pearsall has suddenly shot up draft boards? He hasn't had the production of many of the others, doesn't have elite size and I was seeing him as back of 2nd -3rd round by most sites. 

 

Personally i would stay very far away. Another slot receiver? No thank you.

He has some similar production red flags as guys like Mitchell and Coleman while also having the age red flags of Legette (though Pearsall was at least a solid contributor prior to this season). When I broke down Coleman, I mentioned how one of the things I like about Coleman is I feel like he has a couple calling cards where he should have success right away whereas most of this draft class are more in the mold of all-around players that are pretty good in a bunch of areas; Pearsall is one of those.

• Alignment Versatility: He's lined up, and been successful, all across offensive formations. Probably projects as a flanker/slot hybrid like McConkey, but he had a lot more success against press coverage than McConkey, so there's some X receiver ability in there as well.
• Skillset Versatility: In terms of Matt Harmon's success rates vs. coverage types, Pearsall ranks in the 87th percentile against man coverage and the 69th percentile against zone. That man coverage success rate is slightly behind Rome Odunze for #1 in the class. The zone success rate is 1% behind Odunze for #1 in the class (but McConkey and MHJ are both in between them).
• Hands + Separation: He has arguably the best hands in the class and is one of the best separators in the class.
• Acing the Draft Process: Lastly, he's killed it in the lead up to the draft, and there's always a few guys like that that rise up draft boards as a result. He was one of the standouts at the Senior Bowl and was arguably the most surprisingly great Combine performer (though I'd personally go with AD Mitchell there). While his film is littered with examples of him getting in and out of breaks without having to slow down and also examples of him elevating to grab passes that a lot of other receivers could not reach, people questioned his athleticism some, and then he tested as one of the best athletes in the class.

For me personally, he ended up as my #10 WR in the class. I'd take him in the 2nd round but he's not a real consideration at #28 for me.

[LEBills]

3 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

He has some similar production red flags as guys like Mitchell and Coleman while also having the age red flags of Legette (though Pearsall was at least a solid contributor prior to this season). When I broke down Coleman, I mentioned how one of the things I like about Coleman is I feel like he has a couple calling cards where he should have success right away whereas most of this draft class are more in the mold of all-around players that are pretty good in a bunch of areas; Pearsall is one of those.

• Alignment Versatility: He's lined up, and been successful, all across offensive formations. Probably projects as a flanker/slot hybrid like McConkey, but he had a lot more success against press coverage than McConkey, so there's some X receiver ability in there as well.
• Skillset Versatility: In terms of Matt Harmon's success rates vs. coverage types, Pearsall ranks in the 87th percentile against man coverage and the 69th percentile against zone. That man coverage success rate is slightly behind Rome Odunze for #1 in the class. The zone success rate is 1% behind Odunze for #1 in the class (but McConkey and MHJ are both in between them).
• Hands + Separation: He has arguably the best hands in the class and is one of the best separators in the class.
• Acing the Draft Process: Lastly, he's killed it in the lead up to the draft, and there's always a few guys like that that rise up draft boards as a result. He was one of the standouts at the Senior Bowl and was arguably the most surprisingly great Combine performer (though I'd personally go with AD Mitchell there). While his film is littered with examples of him getting in and out of breaks without having to slow down and also examples of him elevating to grab passes that a lot of other receivers could not reach, people questioned his athleticism some, and then he tested as one of the best athletes in the class.

For me personally, he ended up as my #10 WR in the class. I'd take him in the 2nd round but he's not a real consideration at #28 for me.

Wondering if you are seeing data I haven’t found yet on this part? For both Pearsall and McConkey, what I have found is they didn’t face press man very much and both were not good at it in the small sample. I didn’t really see anyone get up on Pearsall in the games I watched due a lot to him being off the line and/or the D playing off coverage

[DCOrange]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I watched a podcast on the WRs in the draft, and the folks doing the analysis mentioned that Burton has been to six or eight schools going back to his high school days, so he has never stayed put for any extended period of time. They did not know what it meant, but you'd have to do your due diligence on the fella. The red flags for character may be more than slapping a Tennessee fan on the field.

Some of it can pretty innocently be explained away: He blew up early in his high school career and decided to capitalize on that by transferring to one of the powerhouse prep schools (IMG Academy). Got homesick and decided to go back to Atlanta but I believe Georgia has rules against people transferring from out-of-state, so despite growing up in Atlanta, he was ruled ineligible and had to move elsewhere again to continue playing football, so he ended up in California. Some of it, not so easy to explain away; it sounds like none of the coaching staffs that he played for in college liked him. Also not included in the 6 schools in 8 years thing is that he originally committed to Miami, changed his commitment to LSU, and then flipped one more time on Signing Day to Georgia. So he never technically went to Miami or LSU, but he's really had a hard time making a decision and sticking with it.

6 minutes ago, LEBills said:

Wondering if you are seeing data I haven’t found yet on this part? For both Pearsall and McConkey, what I have found is they didn’t face press man very much and both were not good at it in the small sample. I didn’t really see anyone get up on Pearsall in the games I watched due a lot to him being off the line and/or the D playing off coverage

In Matt Harmon's scouting, he has Pearsall's success rate against press coverage at 67.7% (51st percentile) vs. McConkey at 44.4% (8th percentile).

[racketmaster]

20 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I watched a podcast on the WRs in the draft, and the folks doing the analysis mentioned that Burton has been to six or eight schools going back to his high school days, so he has never stayed put for any extended period of time. They did not know what it meant, but you'd have to do your due diligence on the fella. The red flags for character may be more than slapping a Tennessee fan on the field.

I agree that the Bills would have to do their homework on Burton to figure out whether he would be a character fit. From what I understand he only attended 2 colleges (Georgia and Alabama) but in high school I think he changed his mind on his commitment several times. And yes there is the fan issue and some of the on the field antics. Bills will have all background info on him and talk to coaches, trainers etc so I don’t want to speculate much but his on field talent is worth a deep dive. Maybe it is that he just has that edge and ultra competitive personality where he just needs to control it more. At least it does not appear like much in the way of criminal background so it just might be a situation where he needs to mature a bit and learn to control his emotions on the field a bit. 

[section122]

Can I get some idea why AD Mitchell is ranked higher that Xavier Worthy?

 

Worthy has the production and speed.  Mitchell has the size and very good speed as well.  Does it really just come down to height and weight?

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, section122 said:

Can I get some idea why AD Mitchell is ranked higher that Xavier Worthy?

 

Worthy has the production and speed.  Mitchell has the size and very good speed as well.  Does it really just come down to height and weight?

 

Yea it does for me. I mean I have them right together on my board Mitchell is only just ahead and it comes down to the ease with which you can project each to be a #1 in the NFL. That's an easier projection for Mitchell than it is for Worthy because of the size. 

[OldTimer1960]

8 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Matt Harmon's ranking of Franklin outside the top let's me know to never follow his scouting of receivers.  

I’m not excited about Franklin in round 1, but he certainly makes sense in round 2.

[DCOrange]

21 minutes ago, section122 said:

Can I get some idea why AD Mitchell is ranked higher that Xavier Worthy?

 

Worthy has the production and speed.  Mitchell has the size and very good speed as well.  Does it really just come down to height and weight?

I think the size, athleticism, and skills give AD a chance to be an elite WR if you get him to buy in. I very much question his effort (not to mention production red flags), and as a result, bump him down to the 2nd round. But he has all the physical traits we're theoretically looking for to fill the X WR spot.

 

Worthy has the same effort questions but far worse physical limitations, so lower ceiling and same low chance of reaching his ceiling IMO. Not to mention I don't see him as an X, which is the more pressing issue for us. His production profile is definitely a lot more impressive though.

 

Ultimately, with where I have both of them graded, I know they'll be gone before I'd personally be willing to take either.

Edited April 15 by DCOrange

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

2 hours ago, DCOrange said:

I don’t think he’s scouted Franklin yet. The 10 I listed are the only 10 he’s published so far. 

 

 

Apparently he's hard to place. IIRC, he says Franklin could go anywhere from 1st to 3rd round.

 

For me, the knocks on Franklin matter less considering his role: If the issue is that he's slight and less physical, that's ok because I'm imagining him immediately opening things up just running deep routes because you have Samuel, Kincaid and Cook for underneath.

 

[LEBills]

30 minutes ago, section122 said:

Can I get some idea why AD Mitchell is ranked higher that Xavier Worthy?

 

Worthy has the production and speed.  Mitchell has the size and very good speed as well.  Does it really just come down to height and weight?

I do have Mitchell a little higher because I think his floor is a good possession receiver as he is a good route runner. If he can tap into his athleticism his ceiling is pretty high though watching him run after the catch is painful and something I think is instinctual and may be hard for him to improve.

 

Worthy is pretty inconsistent with his hands and routes but his highs are very high. Though I like him overall, I think he has a higher chance of being a straight bust.

[section122]

29 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea it does for me. I mean I have them right together on my board Mitchell is only just ahead and it comes down to the ease with which you can project each to be a #1 in the NFL. That's an easier projection for Mitchell than it is for Worthy because of the size. 

 

17 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I think the size, athleticism, and skills give AD a chance to be an elite WR if you get him to buy in. I very much question his effort (not to mention production red flags), and as a result, bump him down to the 2nd round. But he has all the physical traits we're theoretically looking for to fill the X WR spot.

 

Worthy has the same effort questions but far worse physical limitations, so lower ceiling and same low chance of reaching his ceiling IMO. Not to mention I don't see him as an X, which is the more pressing issue for us. His production profile is definitely a lot more impressive though.

 

Ultimately, with where I have both of them graded, I know they'll be gone before I'd personally be willing to take either.

 

I appreciate the answer and it makes sense to me.  Where I struggle is them being teammates and Worthy outshining Mitchell.  To me that says Texas thought Worthy was the better player.  I know the draft and nfl are different animals where projection of where they will be matters much more than who they have been but I just feel Worthy is a better player even if he doesn't look the part.

 

Since both of them have the effort question, is it fair to say that maybe they were coached to take it easy on certain plays?  I think Mitchell's quote about not going all out each play was taken out of context and misunderstood but if lack of effort shows up on tape, there isn't really any denying it.  I heard an interesting thing on Sirius that I hadn't thought of this morning, the NIL deals are showing teams who will continue to put in the work after getting life changing money.  No longer is the NFL there first taste of being set financially so teams can look at who still works hard and on their craft. 

 

Worthy outperformed Mitchell's best year in all 3 years of college.  @DCOrange are there any concerns with Mitchell's late breakout or does his age negate that?

 

Are both of you good with Mitchell at 28?  Or is there someone else you would prefer?  I think @GunnerBill you would go Legette?

[DCOrange]

7 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

 

 

Apparently he's hard to place. IIRC, he says Franklin could go anywhere from 1st to 3rd round.

 

For me, the knocks on Franklin matter less considering his role: If the issue is that he's slight and less physical, that's ok because I'm imagining him immediately opening things up just running deep routes because you have Samuel, Kincaid and Cook for underneath.

 

We'll see where Harmon ultimately lands on him, but I'll be pretty surprised if he's outside his top 10. It seemed that the OP was saying we shouldn't trust Harmon because he's outside of his top 10 when we don't actually know where he is since he hasn't finished scouting him yet.

 

Personally, I think if you're just looking for someone to be a deep threat and open things up underneath, there's probably a lot of better options than Franklin. The allure with Franklin is that he isn't just a deep threat; most of his targets came closer to the LOS and he was generally very productive on those while still offering some deep ball upside. If you think his physical issues will prevent that part of his game from translating to the pros, I wouldn't bother taking him where he's likely to be drafted. I like him; he's on the late 1st/early 2nd fringe for me.

[section122]

Just now, DCOrange said:

We'll see where Harmon ultimately lands on him, but I'll be pretty surprised if he's outside his top 10. It seemed that the OP was saying we shouldn't trust Harmon because he's outside of his top 10 when we don't actually know where he is since he hasn't finished scouting him yet.

 

Personally, I think if you're just looking for someone to be a deep threat and open things up underneath, there's probably a lot of better options than Franklin. The allure with Franklin is that he isn't just a deep threat; most of his targets came closer to the LOS and he was generally very productive on those while still offering some deep ball upside. If you think his physical issues will prevent that part of his game from translating to the pros, I wouldn't bother taking him where he's likely to be drafted. I like him; he's on the late 1st/early 2nd fringe for me.

 

The stat of a 30 yard catch in 13 of 14 games is mind boggling to me.  Teams had to be game planning to stop that and still couldn't.  Add in how much analytics love him and he is another guy I think I am higher on than the consensus.

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Can someone tell me how Pearsall has suddenly shot up draft boards? He hasn't had the production of many of the others, doesn't have elite size and I was seeing him as back of 2nd -3rd round by most sites. 

 

Personally i would stay very far away. Another slot receiver? No thank you.

 

Most seem to project him as a slot WR in the NFL,  and if that's the case,  he doesn't really fit the Bills' needs. 

 

But I can see the case for a higher ranking.  He's 6'1,  played at an elite SEC school,  led them in recieving yards the last two years.  Has good hands and runs good routes.  The draft sites had him as a 2nd or 3rd based on that. Then,  supposedly,  he had a really good week at the Senior Bowl.  And then he posts the best set of agility scores at the combine along with a strong 40.   So who knows where he actually goes,  but in comparison to the initial grades of the draft sites,  I can see where they might have him undervalued and a guy who was a borderline R2 before might actually go a round higher. 

[section122]

5 minutes ago, LEBills said:

I do have Mitchell a little higher because I think his floor is a good possession receiver as he is a good route runner. If he can tap into his athleticism his ceiling is pretty high though watching him run after the catch is painful and something I think is instinctual and may be hard for him to improve.

 

Worthy is pretty inconsistent with his hands and routes but his highs are very high. Though I like him overall, I think he has a higher chance of being a straight bust.

 

To your bolded, that is actually why I am so high on Worthy.  You can see that he understands how to set up defenders to miss in the open field.  Since he has that tool already, that should really help his route running improve and make him a success in the league.  Strangely though there are several instances of him getting caught from behind that surprised me.

 

[DCOrange]

1 minute ago, section122 said:

Since both of them have the effort question, is it fair to say that maybe they were coached to take it easy on certain plays?

I don't really buy it personally, particularly with Mitchell because the same effort issues showed up at Georgia. Hard to say for sure with Worthy since he didn't switch schools/staffs.

 

1 minute ago, section122 said:

Worthy outperformed Mitchell's best year in all 3 years of college.  @DCOrange are there any concerns with Mitchell's late breakout or does his age negate that?

Yes. If I went just off of the metrics that I like to look at, Mitchell would literally be near the bottom of the draft class and one of the lowest rated I've had in the last few years (out of almost 130 WRs). Worthy is near the tail end of the top 1/3 of that group, pretty good but not great.

 

1 minute ago, section122 said:

Are both of you good with Mitchell at 28?  Or is there someone else you would prefer?  I think @GunnerBill you would go Legette?

I wouldn't take Mitchell at 28 personally. I could maybe get on board with trading up in the 2nd round for him, but in all likelihood, there will be WRs available at #60 that I will have a higher/equal grade on than Mitchell.

 

I'm not sure there's realistically a WR I would opt for at #28 (assuming Brian Thomas doesn't slide that far). After the big 3 + Thomas, I have late 1st or early 2nd round grades on the following: Coleman, Franklin, Jacob Cowing, McConkey, Javon Baker, and Pearsall. Considering they're all early 2nd round or better, I wouldn't really be mad if Buffalo took one of them at 28 but my guess is there will be better value available at other positions there. Cowing is basically a guarantee to be available at #60 as I don't think anyone is really as high on him as I am (he's also almost certainly slot-exclusive which probably means he isn't a fit for us) and Baker seems extremely likely to be available at #60/could be a trade up into the 3rd round candidate.

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

Are both of you good with Mitchell at 28?  Or is there someone else you would prefer?  I think @GunnerBill you would go Legette?

 

I would. I'd go Legette, but would not freak out over Mitchell or Worthy. I think Ladd, Franklin, Coleman would all leave me feeling slightly cold but then you have to look in the context of the board at the time etc. 

[section122]

Thanks @GunnerBill and @DCOrange!

 

Now I have to go back and watch them all again lol.  I am trying hard not to have favorites as they inevitably won't end up on the Bills but I have watched so much on these guys it is near impossible!