2024 WR Draft Class

[gonzo1105]

38 minutes ago, LEBills said:

One of the things I love about this time of year is that different people can see different things when trying to project players to the NFL. I will agree that Franklin has his share of lowlights, but so does every WR in the draft. Personally, if I see the same good plays over and over, I do forgive the times the play is missed. 
 

Im not a combine hater at all. I think testing numbers both good and bad are a reason to go back and watch to see if the testing shows up on the field. Some guys run a fast 40 but can’t run away from anyone on the field, etc. As DCOrange mentioned upthread, the gauntlet kind of confirmed Franklins hands are not a strong suit and his catch radius is a bit limited which you do see show up and he did have a 10% drop rate this year and his hands are sub 9 inch. 
 

I do not blame him though for being a little shorter than reported like everyone else usually is or for him not rerunning a 40 -that he did clock a good 4.41 time - at a pro day. I dont think I’ve ever seen 10 yard split times reported from any pro day but maybe I’ve missed that. As for the private workout for the Bills, I don’t think it means the Bills have him listed above the other receivers or want to retest his numbers. They had Josh for a private pre draft workout because they wanted to know him better.

 

I’ll try to show you some non-highlight reels and why some of us are high on Franklin as a player.

 

Utah 2022 3:59

this is from his sophomore season against Clark Phillips iii (4th rounder of the Falcons last year). Facing soft press near the end zone, he is excellent at planting and exploding off that outside leg on slants

 

Washington State 2023

 

You see the same play at :14 seconds against the Senior MVP of the National team Chau Smith-Wade. The following play he gets vertical out of the slot against CSW.

 

2023 Pac12 Championship game

 

Same play, 4th down need to have it play. This was after Franklin got injured in the first half and was gutting out the game.

 

Oregon State 2023

This whole cut up is a great example of how on the same page Franklin and Nix were this season. Option routed and comebacked the OSU defense to death.

 

Arizona State 2023

Started the cut up with a beautiful post route touchdown. You see him later blow past his guy immediately for a long touchdown (1:37).

 

Utah 2023

 

This is a good example of what I like about Franklin and where his weaknesses are - you see him fight for yac on a screen, followed by a deep comeback, then he blows past his guy and misses the deep catch, hits the post. Skipping ahead to 1:16 he makes Cole Bishop (mid round draftee this year) whiff and catches the touchdown.

 

Washington (2023)

Washington is going to have several people in their secondary drafted eventually. Jabbar Muhammad (#1) is an aggressive player and should be an early round corner when he comes out. He beats him deep with a subtle push off at :45 causing a PI penalty when 1 tries to recover. Then 2:39 he avoids the jam and you see the speed as he beats Dominique Hampton who will likely get drafted this year to the corner of the EZ. Then finally, he Beats 1 fast off the line and has to turn his body to make the one handed catch with 1 holding onto his other hand. This was as they tried to close out the game - which they didn’t lol

 

In addition to everything you see in these cut ups. two stats I love for him. 1. He averaged over 3 yprr against both man and zone this year. 2. He had a catch of 30 yards or more in 12 of his 13 games (the one miss being the championship game when he got hurt) which was by far the most in this class. I love this latter stat because it shows no matter who he was playing he could generate explosive plays.

 

So anyway, Franklin is my WR4. Some other players may be more dominant than him out of this class. But he is just too good in too many ways not to be a good pro imo. I think he would be really good in Buffalo.

Yes, I think that’s ultimately the difference here. Guys like you and me are okay with a Franklin or McConkey or whomever and we realize them may never be an elite # 1 type WR but will have a good 10 year career. While the ceiling is higher on Thomas Mitchell Legette the floor is they bust out of the league and I really like Thomas game. 
 

I still like McConkey at 28 but I’d say the likelihood of him is slim, ultimately we’re all gonna root for the guy they take and hope for the best 

[LEBills]

21 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

Yes, I think that’s ultimately the difference here. Guys like you and me are okay with a Franklin or McConkey or whomever and we realize them may never be an elite # 1 type WR but will have a good 10 year career. While the ceiling is higher on Thomas Mitchell Legette the floor is they bust out of the league and I really like Thomas game. 
 

I still like McConkey at 28 but I’d say the likelihood of him is slim, ultimately we’re all gonna root for the guy they take and hope for the best 

Exactly and I think Franklin and McConkeys ceiling is still pretty high. What I would love if the Bills drafted McConkey (my WR5) is to pair him with Kincaid. McConkey was SO good working on the same side of the field as Bowers and affecting each other’s defenders. It was a beautiful two man game.

[nosejob]

20 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

He’s a precise route runner who can take the top off of a defense. Has great acceleration and changes up his speeds on routes making him deceptive. 
 

He’s obviously thin and I worry about press on him in the NFL but he did fine with it in college. He’ll also have to expand his route tree as well so he is not an immediate guy and may never be a true # 1 but he’ll be a really high end 2 or low level 1 in the NFL and I can live with that at the end of round 1. 
 

People on this board expect 1,000 yards rookie year and it’s not going to happen. Diggs, Cook, Kincaid are gonna get the bulk with Shakir, Samuels, Knox getting their share as well. 
 

If we get 40-50 catches for 700 yards I’ll consider that a win for any rookie we decide to draft

Which is why we need to get Latu 1st. I'm gonna trust BB to get a good complimentary duo of WRs. I could go with several options. I gotta stop re-reading all the profiles and just relax til the draft. I would bet money BB will create at least 2 additional picks for day 2. I would gladly use next yrs. 1st.

[3rdand12]

On 3/29/2024 at 1:16 PM, LEBills said:

 lol Imo he is much more than just speed

and why i suggested Bills do that later on  in the draft. A project who becomes John Brown 

[3rdand12]

20 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Yeah, I'm not understanding the people who are like "look at the tape" when it comes to Franklin. 

 

As I've said before, I think "the tape" refers to YouTube highlight reels.  When you dig deeper than that, there's a lot of uninspiring stuff in the footage. Stuff that the Combine performance seemed to confirm.

 

Leading up to the Combine, fans on this board were way higher on him than a lot of the experts were. Now that we get further and further away from the Combine, there's a push by the people that fell in love with the highlight reel to say "forget about what you saw at the Combine, just look at the shiny highlight video".

 

They also seem to want to go "oh, he was sick? That explains everything, pay no mind to the Combine". A couple major problems with that for me:

 

1.) Sickness had no bearing on him being 2" shorter than he was listed and having under 9" hands.

 

2.) If his sickness contributed to his slower than expected times - why didn't he re-run the 10 yard split and 40 Yard Dash at his Pro Day?

 

There also seems to be this idea that us having a Private Workout with him means that we're heavily interested in him. In all actuality, that's not a good thing. Top Prospects aren't generally asked to re-do their workouts or agree to do that on a visit. Us asking and him agreeing to do that speaks to how badly he looked at the Combine and how they view him now.

 

Long story short, the "tape" isn't anywhere near as strong as the few minute highlights would lead you to believe. And the Combine dispelled the things that made me think he was a 1st Round guy before I watched more than just highlight reels and seemingly confirmed the concerns I had from when I did.

 

Troy is not one of the 8 WR's I have a 1st Round Grade on. He's my WR10 and I'd only be interested if we went with another position in Round 1 and couldn't get one of the first 9 guys I have above him.

its a fair perspective.

 Bills could do better. If they had leverage to move around.

Who do you see as best Fit for Bills , and how do they get him ?
 

[3rdand12]

5 hours ago, nosejob said:

Which is why we need to get Latu 1st. I'm gonna trust BB to get a good complimentary duo of WRs. I could go with several options. I gotta stop re-reading all the profiles and just relax til the draft. I would bet money BB will create at least 2 additional picks for day 2. I would gladly use next yrs. 1st.

please refrain from using BB as an acronym.

I get anxiety

Thought you might be a closet Patriots fan. Yes I know he doesnt coach them any more !

 Feel my trauma.

We talk about trading a 1st to get something key this year

Honestly I just dont have that much faith in the organization yet for trading ahead.

Trading around , sure , Have to since IMO

But Buffalo Bills  lol

 Should be able to grab two players of influence this year , will make plays coming season. Hoping for some real developmental gems in later rounds  (11) picks

 I agree McBeanes wants two second round picks. I think that depends on where they stand by the time pick for #27 comes in lol

But can we keep our next years first please ?

 

[nosejob]

1 hour ago, 3rdand12 said:

please refrain from using BB as an acronym.

I get anxiety

Thought you might be a closet Patriots fan. Yes I know he doesnt coach them any more !

 Feel my trauma.

We talk about trading a 1st to get something key this year

Honestly I just dont have that much faith in the organization yet for trading ahead.

Trading around , sure , Have to since IMO

But Buffalo Bills  lol

 Should be able to grab two players of influence this year , will make plays coming season. Hoping for some real developmental gems in later rounds  (11) picks

 I agree McBeanes wants two second round picks. I think that depends on where they stand by the time pick for #27 comes in lol

But can we keep our next years first please ?

 

How's this? BRANDON BEANE will get us 4 picks within the 1st 100. Latu, Sweat and two WRs...it shall Beane.

Edited March 30 by nosejob

[BBFL]

15 minutes ago, nosejob said:

How's this? BRANDON BEANE will get us 4 picks within the 1st 100. Latu, Sweat and two WRs...it shall Beane.

4 in the first 100? Good luck with that. 

[Dr. Who]

42 minutes ago, BBFL said:

4 in the first 100? Good luck with that. 

That only happens if Beane is trading high picks from 2025, because from his list, Latu and Sweat in a best case scenario cost you #28 and #60. That in itself has an outside chance on a propitious couple of days. I don't think that it is too likely, and then where are your two WRs? Most likely way after the run on WR that will peter out around pick 45 or so, which means you are no longer getting even late third tier WRs. That would be a massive fail given the quality of WR in this draft.

[Turbo44]

1 hour ago, nosejob said:

How's this? BRANDON BEANE will get us 4 picks within the 1st 100. Latu, Sweat and two WRs...it shall Beane.

I don’t think we’re trading up for Latu and the chance of him making it 28 over very close to 0%. He may go top 15

[3rdand12]

I thought it was humor from our nosejob

responding to my wishful thinking ?

[Dr. Who]

9 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

I thought it was humor from our nosejob

responding to my wishful thinking ?

I dunno. I don't always read in the context of a thread, so if it is dependent on that sort of interaction, maybe it is.

I still say, btw, that trying to get an X like Thomas, Mitchell, or Legette is worth the risk, though I have also consistently

said I love McConkey. I agree with the fella who says McConkey and Kincaid would be a natural and excellent pairing.

 

 

[DCOrange]

Matt Harmon, my favorite guy out there for breaking down WRs, published his scouting reports of Brian Thomas Jr, Ladd McConkey, and Keon Coleman today (and has published the top 3 guys already as well). Behind a paywall, but I'll post some of the stuff that stood out to me below, as well as Harmon's tweet including some of their various charts:

 

 

Brian Thomas

• Success rates against both man and zone coverage were above average
• Success rate against press coverage was elite
• Route chart is unsurprisingly very limited; Harmon compared his usage to DK Metcalf in college.
• His success rate specifically on go routes was otherworldly
• Noted that he is also a very good YAC threat; going down on first contact less than 50% of the time
• Ultimately said he could be a super fast version of Tee Higgins
• Sounds like Thomas is Harmon's WR4.

Ladd McConkey

• Success rates against both man and zone coverage were elite.
• His success rate against press coverage is horrific, so definitely not projected to be an X receiver in the NFL.
• His route tree and general usage in college suggests flanker is probably his ideal role but he would likely thrive in the slot as well.
• Said he's the best in the class at running out routes, partially due to how much vertical pressure he puts on DBs.
• Ultimately compares him to Tyler Lockett. Along those lines, Lockett has generally been a fringe top 10 WR in the NFL in Harmon's opinion, and his development against press coverage was a big reason why so that McConkey will likely need to improve there in order to hit those same heights.
• Sounds like he'll be somewhere in Harmon's Tier 3 or Tier 4 (late round 1 vs. priority round 2).

Keon Coleman

• His success rate against zone coverage was above average, but his numbers against man coverage and press coverage were both very bad.
• Longer bullet here, but the most interesting part IMO was that Harmon said he's charted 29 WRs that were below the 35th percentile in two of three categories (man, zone, press). 22/29 amounted to nothing in the NFL. 2/29 are tough to categorize as a hit or a miss (Christian Watson and Will Fuller). The remaining 5 are inarguably hits (he specifically mentions Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rashee Rice, and Juju Smith-Schuster as three of the five) and the thing all five of the hits have in common is that they all transitioned to being a big slot in the NFL. That is ultimately where he believes Coleman has the best chance of success.
• To that end, Coleman was pretty good at finding holes in zone coverage, pretty good on in-breaking routes, pretty good making catches in traffic, and pretty good at making defenders miss after the catch; all attributes that should help him win from the slot.
• Two other guys he mentions as comparisons where it goes wrong is Treylon Burks and Jonathan Mingo; their coaches didn't see the vision for them as big slots so they got stuck out wide and have floundered.
• Based on Harmon's scouting report, Coleman would not appear to be a logical option for the Bills as we don't need a slot or zone specialists right now.
• Harmon has him as a Tier 5 prospect (Good Day 2 option, but probably no higher than late 2nd round).

Edited April 1 by DCOrange

[GunnerBill]

55 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Matt Harmon, my favorite guy out there for breaking down WRs, published his scouting reports of Brian Thomas Jr, Ladd McConkey, and Keon Coleman today (and has published the top 3 guys already as well). Behind a paywall, but I'll post some of the stuff that stood out to me below, as well as Harmon's tweet including some of their various charts:

 

 

Brian Thomas

• Success rates against both man and zone coverage were above average
• Success rate against press coverage was elite
• Route chart is unsurprisingly very limited; Harmon compared his usage to DK Metcalf in college.
• His success rate specifically on go routes was otherworldly
• Noted that he is also a very good YAC threat; going down on first contact less than 50% of the time
• Ultimately said he could be a super fast version of Tee Higgins
• Sounds like Thomas is Harmon's WR4.

Ladd McConkey

• Success rates against both man and zone coverage were elite.
• His success rate against press coverage is horrific, so definitely not projected to be an X receiver in the NFL.
• His route tree and general usage in college suggests flanker is probably his ideal role but he would likely thrive in the slot as well.
• Said he's the best in the class at running out routes, partially due to how much vertical pressure he puts on DBs.
• Ultimately compares him to Tyler Lockett. Along those lines, Lockett has generally been a fringe top 10 WR in the NFL in Harmon's opinion, and his development against press coverage was a big reason why so that McConkey will likely need to improve there in order to hit those same heights.
• Sounds like he'll be somewhere in Harmon's Tier 3 or Tier 4 (late round 1 vs. priority round 2).

Keon Coleman

• His success rate against zone coverage was above average, but his numbers against man coverage and press coverage were both very bad.
• Longer bullet here, but the most interesting part IMO was that Harmon said he's charted 29 WRs that were below the 35th percentile in two of three categories (man, zone, press). 22/29 amounted to nothing in the NFL. 2/29 are tough to categorize as a hit or a miss (Christian Watson and Will Fuller). The remaining 5 are inarguably hits (he specifically mentions Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rashee Rice, and Juju Smith-Schuster as three of the five) and the thing all five of the hits have in common is that they all transitioned to being a big slot in the NFL. That is ultimately where he believes Coleman has the best chance of success.
• To that end, Coleman was pretty good at finding holes in zone coverage, pretty good on in-breaking routes, pretty good making catches in traffic, and pretty good at making defenders miss after the catch; all attributes that should help him win from the slot.
• Two other guys he mentions as comparisons where it goes wrong is Treylon Burks and Jonathan Mingo; their coaches didn't see the vision for them as big slots so they got stuck out wide and have floundered.
• Based on Harmon's scouting report, Coleman would not appear to be a logical option for the Bills.
• Harmon has him as a Tier 5 prospect (Good Day 2 option, but probably no higher than late 2nd round).

 

Thanks for posting.

 

All of that accords with generally where I am on those three guys. He probably ends up half a round higher on McConkey than me but his conclusions as to his fit and route to success in the NFL are the same. 

 

I had made both the Thomas - DK comparison and the Coleman big slot projection in this thread too. 

[Warriorspikes51]

1 hour ago, DCOrange said:

Matt Harmon, my favorite guy out there for breaking down WRs, published his scouting reports of Brian Thomas Jr, Ladd McConkey, and Keon Coleman today (and has published the top 3 guys already as well). Behind a paywall, but I'll post some of the stuff that stood out to me below, as well as Harmon's tweet including some of their various charts:

 

 

Brian Thomas

• Success rates against both man and zone coverage were above average
• Success rate against press coverage was elite
• Route chart is unsurprisingly very limited; Harmon compared his usage to DK Metcalf in college.
• His success rate specifically on go routes was otherworldly
• Noted that he is also a very good YAC threat; going down on first contact less than 50% of the time
• Ultimately said he could be a super fast version of Tee Higgins
• Sounds like Thomas is Harmon's WR4.

Ladd McConkey

• Success rates against both man and zone coverage were elite.
• His success rate against press coverage is horrific, so definitely not projected to be an X receiver in the NFL.
• His route tree and general usage in college suggests flanker is probably his ideal role but he would likely thrive in the slot as well.
• Said he's the best in the class at running out routes, partially due to how much vertical pressure he puts on DBs.
• Ultimately compares him to Tyler Lockett. Along those lines, Lockett has generally been a fringe top 10 WR in the NFL in Harmon's opinion, and his development against press coverage was a big reason why so that McConkey will likely need to improve there in order to hit those same heights.
• Sounds like he'll be somewhere in Harmon's Tier 3 or Tier 4 (late round 1 vs. priority round 2).

Keon Coleman

• His success rate against zone coverage was above average, but his numbers against man coverage and press coverage were both very bad.
• Longer bullet here, but the most interesting part IMO was that Harmon said he's charted 29 WRs that were below the 35th percentile in two of three categories (man, zone, press). 22/29 amounted to nothing in the NFL. 2/29 are tough to categorize as a hit or a miss (Christian Watson and Will Fuller). The remaining 5 are inarguably hits (he specifically mentions Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rashee Rice, and Juju Smith-Schuster as three of the five) and the thing all five of the hits have in common is that they all transitioned to being a big slot in the NFL. That is ultimately where he believes Coleman has the best chance of success.
• To that end, Coleman was pretty good at finding holes in zone coverage, pretty good on in-breaking routes, pretty good making catches in traffic, and pretty good at making defenders miss after the catch; all attributes that should help him win from the slot.
• Two other guys he mentions as comparisons where it goes wrong is Treylon Burks and Jonathan Mingo; their coaches didn't see the vision for them as big slots so they got stuck out wide and have floundered.
• Based on Harmon's scouting report, Coleman would not appear to be a logical option for the Bills as we don't need a slot or zone specialists right now.
• Harmon has him as a Tier 5 prospect (Good Day 2 option, but probably no higher than late 2nd round).

 

Keon is way too risky IMO.  Ladd...we already have 2 very similar players in Kincaid and Shakir

Give me BTJ all day 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

The only three guys that make sense at 28 are Thomas, Franklin, and Mitchell. Hopefully one of those three are available. They all have enough size and speed to be an outside threat. I'd be happy with any of those three. 

If they are all gone take an edge or trade back. 

 

Somehow I think we end up with Roman Wilson in the top of round 2 as a Robert Woods do-over. 

 

[3rdand12]

On 3/31/2024 at 2:10 PM, Dr. Who said:

I dunno. I don't always read in the context of a thread, so if it is dependent on that sort of interaction, maybe it is.

I still say, btw, that trying to get an X like Thomas, Mitchell, or Legette is worth the risk, though I have also consistently

said I love McConkey. I agree with the fella who says McConkey and Kincaid would be a natural and excellent pairing.

 

 

Some risk is often needed to succeed

 

The Kincaid and McConkey was a nice effort by our Mate here.

 

Love this time of year , and its stresses me a bit lol

 Go Bills

[HappyDays]

Derrik Klassen with Bleacher Report, whose opinion I really respect, wrote up his top 16 WR prospects:

 

He breaks down what makes each of the prospects special in their own right. It's a fantastic read.

 

His list in order:

 

1. Marvin Harrison Jr

2. Rome Odunze

3. Malik Nabers

4. Keon Coleman

5. Brian Thomas Jr

6. Jalen McMillan

7. Roman Wilson

8. Ja'Lynn Polk

9. Xavier Worthy

10. Ladd McConkey

11. Adonai Mitchell

12. Jermaine Burton

13. Xavier Legette

14. Malachi Corley

15. Troy Franklin

16. Ricky Pearsall

[DJB]

8 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Matt Harmon, my favorite guy out there for breaking down WRs, published his scouting reports of Brian Thomas Jr, Ladd McConkey, and Keon Coleman today (and has published the top 3 guys already as well). Behind a paywall, but I'll post some of the stuff that stood out to me below, as well as Harmon's tweet including some of their various charts:

 

 

Brian Thomas

• Success rates against both man and zone coverage were above average
• Success rate against press coverage was elite
• Route chart is unsurprisingly very limited; Harmon compared his usage to DK Metcalf in college.
• His success rate specifically on go routes was otherworldly
• Noted that he is also a very good YAC threat; going down on first contact less than 50% of the time
• Ultimately said he could be a super fast version of Tee Higgins
• Sounds like Thomas is Harmon's WR4.

Ladd McConkey

• Success rates against both man and zone coverage were elite.
• His success rate against press coverage is horrific, so definitely not projected to be an X receiver in the NFL.
• His route tree and general usage in college suggests flanker is probably his ideal role but he would likely thrive in the slot as well.
• Said he's the best in the class at running out routes, partially due to how much vertical pressure he puts on DBs.
• Ultimately compares him to Tyler Lockett. Along those lines, Lockett has generally been a fringe top 10 WR in the NFL in Harmon's opinion, and his development against press coverage was a big reason why so that McConkey will likely need to improve there in order to hit those same heights.
• Sounds like he'll be somewhere in Harmon's Tier 3 or Tier 4 (late round 1 vs. priority round 2).

Keon Coleman

• His success rate against zone coverage was above average, but his numbers against man coverage and press coverage were both very bad.
• Longer bullet here, but the most interesting part IMO was that Harmon said he's charted 29 WRs that were below the 35th percentile in two of three categories (man, zone, press). 22/29 amounted to nothing in the NFL. 2/29 are tough to categorize as a hit or a miss (Christian Watson and Will Fuller). The remaining 5 are inarguably hits (he specifically mentions Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rashee Rice, and Juju Smith-Schuster as three of the five) and the thing all five of the hits have in common is that they all transitioned to being a big slot in the NFL. That is ultimately where he believes Coleman has the best chance of success.
• To that end, Coleman was pretty good at finding holes in zone coverage, pretty good on in-breaking routes, pretty good making catches in traffic, and pretty good at making defenders miss after the catch; all attributes that should help him win from the slot.
• Two other guys he mentions as comparisons where it goes wrong is Treylon Burks and Jonathan Mingo; their coaches didn't see the vision for them as big slots so they got stuck out wide and have floundered.
• Based on Harmon's scouting report, Coleman would not appear to be a logical option for the Bills as we don't need a slot or zone specialists right now.
• Harmon has him as a Tier 5 prospect (Good Day 2 option, but probably no higher than late 2nd round).

Thanks for posting. Seems the numbers back up what I’ve been saying for months. Stay away from Coleman he’s such an obvious red flag 

 

 

 

Edited April 2 by DJB

[Dr. Who]

Coleman may be the most polarizing WR in the draft, followed by Franklin. I don't trust either of them, but some of the folks who like them are certainly bright. Looks like the experts are all over the map on the next tiers, though it seems BTJ is nearly always in the top 5. Maybe Beane will have a plan to go get him. If not, I think you stick at #28, and decide based on what's on the board and what trade back deals are available.