2024 WR Draft Class

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

On the investment thing there is no doubt they could have done more but at the same time I think they have started to move that dial a tad. Brown, Torrence, Kincaid and Shakir all being starters on rookie deals plays in a bit. The one area that they have clearly failed is prioritising WR in the draft. But I said it when he arrived that Beane came from a place where they had not prioritised big assets on receiver and that thinking that he was exposed to under Hurney and Gettleman has manifested itself in Buffalo.

 

Yep and on top of all of that, factor in trading a first round pick for Diggs in 2020, they actually have invested a top pick at WR. They have invested first round picks on pass catchers in two out of the last four drafts. If they do it again this draft it will be 3 out of the last 5. Also, I think the immediate positive impact that Brown and Beasley gave the Bills as cheaper veteran free agent pick ups at the position got Beane thinking he could find cheap veteran WR's to replace them.  Neither Sanders or Crowder hit like either of Brown or Beasley. And I am sure like many of us he was somewhat fooled by Davis who we all thought would become more than what he was. 

 

I continue to maintain that what failed the Bills offensive strategy was their selection of RB's on day 2 in three out of four drafts starting in 2019 with Singletary, then Moss in 2020 and Cook in 2022. Should have at most drafted one in a four year span, not three. 

 

[Solomon Grundy]

37 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

For those talking about Coleman there was some talk about WR separation last week on WGR. I take most of what they say with a grain of salt but they went over the WRs with the least separation over the last 5-10 drafts. I don’t remember the number. With the exception of Nico Collins, all of the guys were garbage. Coleman doesn’t get any separation. Take that fwiw but I am not interested in Coleman (and I’m team WR)

Didn't they say the same about Drake London? He went 8th overall because of his contested catch ability. Drake also had Caleb throwing him the ball. Coleman had Travis until he got injured. When playing with Travis early, he put up some decent numbers. Torched LSU and Syracuse who produces some nice DBs. I'm team Coleman

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Didn't they say the same about Drake London? He went 8th overall because of his contested catch ability. Drake also had Caleb throwing him the ball. Coleman had Travis until he got injured. When playing with Travis early, he put up some decent numbers. Torched LSU and Syracuse who produces some nice DBs. I'm team Coleman

 

Drake London and Caleb did not play together at USC actually. 

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Didn't they say the same about Drake London? He went 8th overall because of his contested catch ability. Drake also had Caleb throwing him the ball. Coleman had Travis until he got injured. When playing with Travis early, he put up some decent numbers. Torched LSU and Syracuse who produces some nice DBs. I'm team Coleman

London was not on that list. Collins was the only guy that was even serviceable at the next level. They then did the other end of the spectrum and all of those guys were good. There are exceptions to every rule, ie Collins, but I’m concerned with guys that can’t separate. 

[GunnerBill]

27 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

I think we all just want to make result based conclusions.

 

We are two "toss-up" finishes from winning 5 straight vs. KC.  What would be the talking points then?  Just like all this commentary about why all this spending on the defense doesn't work.  All I know is that it doesn't work when basically all those highly payed defenders get hurt.  Things probably go differently with a healthy Von/Tre/Milano/DaQuan and our banged up safeties.

 

I agree but equally they might say the same the other way in terms of the last two regular season wins we had there. Those games keep coming down to a play or two. 

 

But I have made the elite talent point repeatedly. You can look back at Superbowl winners and they tend to have 3 or 4. We never seem to get to the playoffs with 3 or 4 healthy. Even if we feel we have them on paper in September.

17 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Didn't they say the same about Drake London? He went 8th overall because of his contested catch ability. Drake also had Caleb throwing him the ball. Coleman had Travis until he got injured. When playing with Travis early, he put up some decent numbers. Torched LSU and Syracuse who produces some nice DBs. I'm team Coleman

 

1. London's separation rates were better than Coleman's; and

 

2. He is hardly proof of the point so far. He has been okay. He hasn't been great.

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

For those talking about Coleman there was some talk about WR separation last week on WGR. I take most of what they say with a grain of salt but they went over the WRs with the least separation over the last 5-10 drafts. I don’t remember the number. With the exception of Nico Collins, all of the guys were garbage. Coleman doesn’t get any separation. Take that fwiw but I am not interested in Coleman (and I’m team WR).

Yeah, even as someone that has him WR4 or WR5 in the class, he has a litany of red flags at this point. It's kinda akin to when we drafted Allen where there was a ton of legitimate reasons to think he'd be a bust.

[Kirby Jackson]

9 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Yeah, even as someone that has him WR4 or WR5 in the class, he has a litany of red flags at this point. It's kinda akin to when we drafted Allen where there was a ton of legitimate reasons to think he'd be a bust.

Yeah, Coleman for me isn’t in my top 10 WR targets. While he could be the guy that takes off, there are far too many questions. If I’m going to roll the dice on the athletic freak, it’s Xavier Legette for me. Here are 10 WRs that I prefer over Coleman (in no particular order):

MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, Thomas, Mitchell, Worthy, Legette, McConkey, Pearsall, & Franklin. Cowing, Roman Wilson, Corley and the other 2 UW guys would also be in the conversation. 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

While the lack of spend on receiver in the draft has been a frustration if, as we all hope, they address that at #28 in April, even allowing for the fact I expect #60 would go on defense, it gives Josh a starting offense with:

 

A 2nd round running back;

A 1st round tight end;

A 1st round trade and a first round pick at receiver;

Two 2nds and a 3rd rounder on the offensive line.

 

That only really leaves WR3, C, LG where they haven't invested decent draft capital. So while I agree that they have been slightly tilted towards defense and they have definitely undervalued receiver to a concerning degree I still say the single biggest issue with their talent evaluation and acquisition strategy has been their inability to find elite talent. They have found lots and lots of good and not much great. And we see it year after year in the playoffs not just in the Bills games but in the post season generally, it is the elite guys that very often are the ones making the critical plays in the critical moments. If they find an elite player at #28 that will make a huge difference (even if that isn't a receiver... though obviously that is my preferred outcome).

 

Regarding this list....

 

IMO........offensive talent(especially when placed around an elite QB) tends to provide longer lasting results.

 

That's one of the reasons why you should invest MORE early picks offensively than on defense.    The Bills are only now just "approaching" 50%.......that's still not enough.

 

Go back and look at that list of Green Bay first round picks when they were spending a decade ignoring a 1st round WR for Rodgers.   Some pretty good players but not a lot of legs.

 

And I said it then,  the Tre White and Tremaine Edmunds for Pat Mahomes pick trade was going to age poorly QUICKLY.   Most defenders roll up mileage fast and then when they hit FA they are more likely to be let to leave.  

 

I'm sure someone will say......."well look at the Chiefs they invest a lot of early picks on defense"..........but they were balls-out investing in offense until after they'd won a SB.  They had two 1,000 yard receiving targets in Hill and Kelce and STILL paid Sammy Watkins huge money in FA.   And Watkins was a stud for them in the playoffs, including sealing their first SB win burning Richard Sherman late.

 

When you've got a Lombardi in hand you basically arrive to the stadium with a lead in almost every playoff game against any team that doesn't.   We watched it with NE for almost 2 decades.  We had a lesser version of it with Buffalo back in the 1990's.   Once you break thru that ceiling you need a little less talent to do it again each time.

 

 

[FireChans]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

Yeah, Coleman for me isn’t in my top 10 WR targets. While he could be the guy that takes off, there are far too many questions. If I’m going to roll the dice on the athletic freak, it’s Xavier Legette for me. Here are 10 WRs that I prefer over Coleman (in no particular order):

MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, Thomas, Mitchell, Worthy, Legette, McConkey, Pearsall, & Franklin. Cowing, Roman Wilson, Corley and the other 2 UW guys would also be in the conversation. 

Coleman strikes me as a Kelvin Benjamin Mike Williams type. 
 

He will have some crazy highlights as a contested catch guy with a lot of targets. But contested catch guys aren’t how you make a living on offense. And while KB and Williams had some good seasons, and Williams got paid, smart teams would still stay away from them.

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

For those talking about Coleman there was some talk about WR separation last week on WGR. I take most of what they say with a grain of salt but they went over the WRs with the least separation over the last 5-10 drafts. I don’t remember the number. With the exception of Nico Collins, all of the guys were garbage. Coleman doesn’t get any separation. Take that fwiw but I am not interested in Coleman (and I’m team WR).

 

A lot of the talk around Coleman reminds me of the talk around Josh Allen before his draft. It isn't people watching him play and then criticizing him, it's people throwing around opaque stats without context and counting that as scouting (not saying you are doing this). Stats have their place in the discussion but when people say stuff like "he has one of the lowest contested catch rate in the class" that tells me there is something inherently wrong with that stat, not with Coleman. Everybody who watches his tape agrees he is a contested catch monster. As far as separation from his defender that is never going to be his top tier skill, but boxing out defenders and separating at the catch point is arguably just as valuable, and there is more upside to his route running than many people give him credit for IMO.

[njbuff]

If Rome slips into the teens….

 

Do you dangle next years 1st to try and move up and get him?

[Buffalo716]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Regarding this list....

 

IMO........offensive talent(especially when placed around an elite QB) tends to provide longer lasting results.

 

That's one of the reasons why you should invest MORE early picks offensively than on defense.    The Bills are only now just "approaching" 50%.......that's still not enough.

 

Go back and look at that list of Green Bay first round picks when they were spending a decade ignoring a 1st round WR for Rodgers.   Some pretty good players but not a lot of legs.

 

And I said it then,  the Tre White and Tremaine Edmunds for Pat Mahomes pick trade was going to age poorly QUICKLY.   Most defenders roll up mileage fast and then when they hit FA they are more likely to be let to leave.  

 

I'm sure someone will say......."well look at the Chiefs they invest a lot of early picks on defense"..........but they were balls-out investing in offense until after they'd won a SB.  They had two 1,000 yard receiving targets in Hill and Kelce and STILL paid Sammy Watkins huge money in FA.   And Watkins was a stud for them in the playoffs, including sealing their first SB win burning Richard Sherman late.

 

When you've got a Lombardi in hand you basically arrive to the stadium with a lead in almost every playoff game against any team that doesn't.   We watched it with NE for almost 2 decades.  We had a lesser version of it with Buffalo back in the 1990's.   Once you break thru that ceiling you need a little less talent to do it again each time.

 

 

The bills got like 80 starts out of Tre White and Edmunds like a piece

 

Sure it's not a quarterback.. but the NFL is all circumstances

 

You cannot convince me that Patrick mahomes would be a three-time super bowl champion if the bills drafted him... especially with dennison as OC..  So much around the world of the NFL would change including the bills probably never trading for diggs... And that's not even mentioning the massive impact reid has had on his development 

 

The bills also ended up with a franchise quarterback even if it was by dumb luck and got a cornerback who made an all pro team and a linebacker who made multiple pro bowls and got a massive contract

 

The fact we got two pro bowl quality players is a return... And then striking gold with Allen next year

 

We certainly did not get fleeced like the browns pics they got for Julio trade 

 

They got lots of picks and did nothing... The bills absolutely did stuff with our picks

 

 

Edited March 23 by Buffalo716

[BADOLBILZ]

14 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

The bills got like 80 starts out of Tre White and Edmunds like a piece

 

Sure it's not a quarterback.. but the NFL is all circumstances

 

You cannot convince me that Patrick mahomes would be a three-time super bowl champion if the bills drafted him... especially with dennison as OC..  So much around the world of the NFL would change including the bills probably never trading for diggs... And that's not even mentioning the massive impact reid has had on his development 

 

The bills also ended up with a franchise quarterback even if it was by dumb luck and got a cornerback who made an all pro team and a linebacker who made multiple pro bowls and got a massive contract

 

The fact we got two pro bowl quality players is a return... And then striking gold with Allen next year

 

We certainly did not get fleeced like the browns pics they got for Julio trade 

 

They got lots of picks and did nothing... The bills absolutely did stuff with our picks

 

 

 

 

If what you are trying to tell me is that the Bills got about what you could hope from selecting 2 defensive players in the 20's of round 1 in 2017 and 2018 then you are correct.

 

Which is my point.    Like I said,  Green Bay got plenty of good defensive players in that decade they eschewed drafting a WR in round 1 for Rodgers.

 

But also, the Bills didn't get commensurate value even at the time of the trade.

 

What do you think it would cost the Bills to move up 17 spots in this draft?    Seriously.  Answer that.  Don't dodge it.  

 

Let alone a shot at maybe Odunze or Nabers......imagine there was a QB on the board that a team valued enough to pick at 10 to boot.    The Bills got fleeced in real time........let alone what the players became.

 

[Buffalo716]

25 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

If what you are trying to tell me is that the Bills got about what you could hope from selecting 2 defensive players in the 20's of round 1 in 2017 and 2018 then you are correct.

 

Which is my point.    Like I said,  Green Bay got plenty of good defensive players in that decade they eschewed drafting a WR in round 1 for Rodgers.

 

But also, the Bills didn't get commensurate value even at the time of the trade.

 

What do you think it would cost the Bills to move up 17 spots in this draft?    Seriously.  Answer that.  Don't dodge it.  

 

Let alone a shot at maybe Odunze or Nabers......imagine there was a QB on the board that a team valued enough to pick at 10 to boot.    The Bills got fleeced in real time........let alone what the players became.

 

It would probably take a swap of our first

 

Our first round pick next year...

 

And maybe our second round this year 

 

According to the value chart 

[NoSaint]

6 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

London was not on that list. Collins was the only guy that was even serviceable at the next level. They then did the other end of the spectrum and all of those guys were good. There are exceptions to every rule, ie Collins, but I’m concerned with guys that can’t separate. 

heck, Josh defies all the draft rules in existence, right? But at some point you have to worry if a guy can’t get space against lesser talent than how will he in the pros? There can be explanations or anomalies But…. Generally speaking 

[JMM]

So...Xavier Worthy. His speed is tantalizing,  and his production was very good against big boy competition.  Of course the question is size. He seems comparable to Devonta Smith. Remember all the questions about his size and durability when he came out. What do people think about Worthy as compared to Smith? Would he be worth the risk at 28? The thought of what he could do on bombs from Josh...

[OldTimer1960]

14 minutes ago, JMM said:

So...Xavier Worthy. His speed is tantalizing,  and his production was very good against big boy competition.  Of course the question is size. He seems comparable to Devonta Smith. Remember all the questions about his size and durability when he came out. What do people think about Worthy as compared to Smith? Would he be worth the risk at 28? The thought of what he could do on bombs from Josh...

First round is too rich for me for a 165lb receiver with real elite speed and quickness, but just OK hands.  I think his floor is pretty solid as a dangerous playmaker, but one with size (and maybe durability) issues.  He *could* do much better than that, but I would be concerned about durability and NFL DBs beating him up physically.  I won't question a team if they take Worthy in the first, but I am hoping it isn't the Bills.

 

[BillsFanForever19]

I've seen people like Jeremy White celebrating the signing of Austin Johnson as meaning it makes WR in Round 1 more likely and DT less likely.

 

While I'd like that to be true, it really doesn't do anything to change the situation.

 

If anything Johnson removes the potential of something like Sweat in Round 2. Jones and Johnson are 1T's. Sweat is a 1T. With the signing of Johnson behind Jones, I don't see us taking a 3rd 1T in the first 2 Rounds when we still only have one 3T (and other holes).

 

Byron Murphy and Johnny Newton are the two DT's that would be in consideration for us in Round 1. And their position? 3T - which is still a big hole for us. Maybe even bigger now as money is getting tighter and the options in FA are getting thin.

 

I still have my fingers crossed WR is our first pick. But the idea that Johnson does anything to the potential of DT in Round 1 is incorrect.

Edited March 23 by BillsFanForever19

[OldTimer1960]

1 minute ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

I've seen people like Jeremy White celebrating the signing of Austin Johnson as meaning it makes WR in Round 1 more likely and DT less likely.

 

While I'd like that to be true, it really doesn't do anything to change the situation.

 

If anything Johnson removes the potential of something like Sweat in Round 2. Jones and Johnson are 1T's. Sweat is a 1T. With the signing of Johnson behind Jones, I don't see us taking a 3rd 1T when we still only have one 3T.

 

Byron Murphy and Johnny Newton are the two DT's that would be in consideration for us in Round 1. And their position? 3T - which is still a big hole for us. Maybe even bigger now as money is getting tighter and the options in FA are getting thin.

 

I still have my fingers crossed WR is our first pick. But the idea that Johnson does anything to the potential of DT in Round 1 is incorrect.

Kris Jenkins in round 2 could be someone to watch.  

[BillsFanForever19]

3 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Kris Jenkins in round 2 could be someone to watch.  

 

Us going WR in Round 1 and 3T in Round 2 is my hope. But the idea that something like Murphy or Newton is out because we signed Johnson simply isn't true.