Richard Noggin Posted March 4 Posted March 4 6 hours ago, DCOrange said: I decided to apply the metrics system that I created this year to the 2023 draft class, mainly just to expand the sample size a bit to see if the results looked out of whack or not. The top ranked guys based on the metrics that I'm looking at: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (had to flip the formula to prioritize 2021 instead of 2022 for him since he played so little in 2022) Puka Nacua Josh Downs Tank Dell Demario Douglas Quentin Johnston Xavier Gipson Jordan Addison Rashee Rice Jalin Hyatt Notable guys outside the top 10: Zay Flowers was #24 out of 43 Jayden Reed was #30 Michael Wilson was #28 Jonathan Mingo was #32 Dontayvion Wicks was #35 Justin Shorter was #41 Your system has major holes. As do all WR scouting metrics/systems. Your 2024 rankings have both Texas WRs REALLY low. I get that you're not exactly predicting picks, but evaluating the prospects...yet having Mitchell and Worthy both outside the top-10 WR prospects seems wild to me. I'm not a huge Worthy guy, but I do think Mitchell is potentially a sleeping giant as a future #1 WR in the NFL. And Worthy is probably better than I'm willing to admit, and definitely better in terms of draft value. Quote
GunnerBill Posted March 4 Posted March 4 1 minute ago, DCOrange said: Do you have a link to a report that we met with Kincaid or Elam at the Combine? I've checked a bunch of lists of prospects we interviewed, brought in for visits, etc. and searched on Twitter around this time in those years too and didn't find any reports. There have been videos in both cases as part of the Embedded series. The "notebook" conversation with Elam was at the Combine and the interview with Kincaid on last year's you can clearly see they are in a suite at Lucas Oil with the stadium visible out the window at the back of the room. 1 Quote
DCOrange Posted March 4 Posted March 4 2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: There have been videos in both cases as part of the Embedded series. The "notebook" conversation with Elam was at the Combine and the interview with Kincaid on last year's you can clearly see they are in a suite at Lucas Oil with the stadium visible out the window at the back of the room. I get that, but point is there were no reports as far as I can tell that we met with them, much like there are no reports that we met with McConkey. That doesn't necessarily mean it didn't happen. I haven't found a public report about us meeting with any of our first rounders in the McBeane era as a matter of fact. Even the reports about Josh Allen stated that we only met with him at the Senior Bowl before bringing him in for a private workout. 2 Quote
Richard Noggin Posted March 4 Posted March 4 15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: That is 100% not true I can tell you that for a fact. Most teams work on a board of around 150-160 max. The Patriots famously under Belichick had less than 100 guys on its draft board most years. The reasons a player will generally be off a board: 1. Medicals 2. Conduct 3. Personality (distinct from conduct as in there are no specific incidents but the vibe they get from work area scouts do is the individual just isn't a fit) 4. Scheme 5. Failure to meet physical specifications for the position (every team has them, some are more slavish about them than others) 6. They don't give them a draftable grade My suspicion since Beane arrived here has always been he operates towards the smaller end board wise. I'd say somewhere in the 120 range. I have second hand confirmation from someone who was in the building that it isn't far off (though the number fluctuates a bit year to year and class to class). Remember last year when after taking Shorter in round 5 Beane started trading back multiple times? I strongly suspect his board was empty. Broeker and Austin were very likely prioritiy UDFAs for them rather than draft board guys. They'd just ran out of the latter. 100% understand this contingency, that a specific org might run out of "draftable" grades before the draft ends. Probably happens a lot. Love the suspicion that this happened last year so Beane immediately shifted to trading for late picks next year (which is now THIS year), possibly knowing that COVID eligibility extensions would mean the 2024 6th and 7th round board would contain better talent/draftable grades. More players were allowed to go back to school, so they did. And now they're declared for the draft. Was a predictable development. (Nice to have 10 picks...but wish they were a little better.) Quote
DCOrange Posted March 4 Posted March 4 (edited) 9 hours ago, Richard Noggin said: Your system has major holes. As do all WR scouting metrics/systems. Your 2024 rankings have both Texas WRs REALLY low. I get that you're not exactly predicting picks, but evaluating the prospects...yet having Mitchell and Worthy both outside the top-10 WR prospects seems wild to me. I'm not a huge Worthy guy, but I do think Mitchell is potentially a sleeping giant as a future #1 WR in the NFL. And Worthy is probably better than I'm willing to admit, and definitely better in terms of draft value. I'm sure a few WRs will slip through the cracks; I'm really just doing the metrics thing for fun. As I mentioned, Zay Flowers for example was relatively low when I applied the same system to the 2023 class. Having said that, Mitchell came out with a score of -4.98, 115th out of 129. WRs that ranked 100th or worse from the prior two classes: Kayshon Boutte Tyler Scott Isaiah Weston Grant Dubose Bryce Ford-Wheaton Charlie Jones Dontayvion Wicks Tyquan Thornton Johnny Johnson III Makai Polk Tanner Conner Antoine Green Justin Shorter Jake Bobo Jalen Wayne Ty Fryfogle Slade Bolden Braylon Sanders Jayden Reed is the lowest rated in my database that has shown he might be good; he was 86th. Perhaps Mitchell will be the outlier from that group. Worthy isn't too bad on the metrics; roughly in the top third of the group over the last three years. Edited March 4 by DCOrange 1 Quote
GunnerBill Posted March 4 Posted March 4 2 minutes ago, DCOrange said: I get that, but point is there were no reports as far as I can tell that we met with them, much like there are no reports that we met with McConkey. That doesn't necessarily mean it didn't happen. I haven't found a public report about us meeting with any of our first rounders in the McBeane era as a matter of fact. Even the reports about Josh Allen stated that we only met with him at the Senior Bowl before bringing him in for a private workout. I thought McConkey had said he didn't meet with the Bills? I thought that was where that came from? Agree though I don't think we knew that they met Kincaid last year. In 2022 the meeting with Elam only became public knowledge in the last 48 hours before the draft. I remember commenting on it because I had all but dismissed him as a possibility not seeing the scheme fit and with no meetings and then it emerged right at the last minute he had met with them at the Combine. 2021 there was no Combine and all meetings were virtual. 2020 they didn't have a 1st round pick. 2019 - Ed Oliver they definitely met at the Combine. 2018 I don't think they met either Josh or Tremaine at the Combine. But they had Tremaine in on a 30 visit and the met with Josh at the Senior Bowl and on private visits. That year I would submit was slightly different because they were in the QB market and that dictated a lot. I think they have said since their plan was by the end of the Combine have met all of the top guys at least once and they had covered Josh off at the Senior Bowl. That said I think Tre in 2017 was a Senior Bowl meeting rather than Combine as well from memory. I am not wedded to the idea it must be a Combine meeting for their first round pick. But it will be someone they have met with. If they met with Ladd at the Senior Bowl he is still in play. If they didn't but they bring him in for a visit likewise. But they will only draft someone they have met in the 1st. I don't think they have ever taken someone round 2 without an in person meeting either. It is just who they are. Hell, they have often met their day 3 picks. I am actually more interested in who are the non-WRs they have met so far? Because that might give us a clearer sence of where their head is at beyond the obvious. Quote
BillsFanForever19 Posted March 4 Posted March 4 13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I thought McConkey had said he didn't meet with the Bills? I thought that was where that came from? Agree though I don't think we knew that they met Kincaid last year. In 2022 the meeting with Elam only became public knowledge in the last 48 hours before the draft. I remember commenting on it because I had all but dismissed him as a possibility not seeing the scheme fit and with no meetings and then it emerged right at the last minute he had met with them at the Combine. 2021 there was no Combine and all meetings were virtual. 2020 they didn't have a 1st round pick. 2019 - Ed Oliver they definitely met at the Combine. 2018 I don't think they met either Josh or Tremaine at the Combine. But they had Tremaine in on a 30 visit and the met with Josh at the Senior Bowl and on private visits. That year I would submit was slightly different because they were in the QB market and that dictated a lot. I think they have said since their plan was by the end of the Combine have met all of the top guys at least once and they had covered Josh off at the Senior Bowl. That said I think Tre in 2017 was a Senior Bowl meeting rather than Combine as well from memory. I am not wedded to the idea it must be a Combine meeting for their first round pick. But it will be someone they have met with. If they met with Ladd at the Senior Bowl he is still in play. If they didn't but they bring him in for a visit likewise. But they will only draft someone they have met in the 1st. I don't think they have ever taken someone round 2 without an in person meeting either. It is just who they are. Hell, they have often met their day 3 picks. I am actually more interested in who are the non-WRs they have met so far? Because that might give us a clearer sence of where their head is at beyond the obvious. Correct, he confirmed we didn't meet with him at the Combine. Though we did talk to him at the Senior Bowl. Though as is documented, there's really not much that can be done with a meeting at the Senior Bowl except informalities: https://www.si.com/nfl/draft/news/senior-bowl-interview-process-changes-nfl-draft-teams-players As for who we've met with, it's mostly WR's and DB's: https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2024/03/nfl-combine-2024-buffalo-bills-prospect-meeting-tracker.html Quote
GunnerBill Posted March 4 Posted March 4 (edited) 7 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said: Correct, he confirmed we didn't meet with him at the Combine. Though we did talk to him at the Senior Bowl. Though as is documented, there's really not much that can be done with a meeting at the Senior Bowl except informalities: https://www.si.com/nfl/draft/news/senior-bowl-interview-process-changes-nfl-draft-teams-players As for who we've met with, it's mostly WR's and DB's: https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2024/03/nfl-combine-2024-buffalo-bills-prospect-meeting-tracker.html I dunno. If Ladd was one of the Bills specific requests a 25 minute interview is a pretty significant chunk of time. In terms of non-WR meetings with guys who are at least in the mix for day 1 I make it: Byron Murphy, DT Kamari Lassiter, CB Cooper DeJean, CB/S Graham Barton, IOL Sure there were others meetings we haven't heard about yet, as metioned above the Elam news came late in the day and not sure Kincaid was ever public pre-draft. But at the same time it is interesting to look at who might be in their thoughts. Edited March 4 by GunnerBill Quote
BillsFanForever19 Posted March 4 Posted March 4 (edited) 1 hour ago, GunnerBill said: I dunno. If Ladd was one of the Bills specific requests a 25 minute interview is a pretty significant chunk of time. In terms of non-WR meetings with guys who are at least in the mix for day 1 I make it: Byron Murphy, DT Kamari Lassiter, CB Cooper DeJean, CB/S Graham Barton, IOL Sure there were others meetings we haven't heard about yet, as metioned above the Elam news came late in the day and not sure Kincaid was ever public pre-draft. But at the same time it is interesting to look at who might be in their thoughts. My apologies, I misread part of that tweet and missed others. But that being said: - It says literally every player at the Senior Bowl gets a meeting with every team. So his meeting with us was a given. No way of knowing whether that was a required 10 minute meeting or one of the 64 requested extended 25 minute meetings. - I don't believe we send all of our coaches, scouts, and staff to the Senior Bowl - unlike the Combine, as McConkey himself alluded to in his presser. The Senior Bowl interviews are not the same as Combine interviews. - In the past, whether we've met with a player we've Drafted in Round 1 at the Senior Bowl or not - we've still met with them again at the Combine for the interview. Tre'Davious White, Josh Allen, and Dalton Kincaid are the 3 Senior Bowl players Drafted in Round 1 and we interviewed them all at the Combine. And to that end.... - The following is list of players we met with at the Senior Bowl. And unlike McConkey - we met with them again at the Combine: Xavier Legette - WR South Carolina Devontez Walker - WR North Carolina Roman Wilson - WR Michigan Kameron Kinchens - S Miami Payton Wilson - LB NC State Byron Murphy II - DT Texas Javon Solomon - DE Troy Jalyx Hunt - DE Houston Christian Patrick Paul - OT Houston Long story short, between the Senior Bowl process requiring us to meet with everyone there, our history of meeting with Round 1 Drafted players at both the Senior Bowl and the Combine, and the large list of players we met with at the Combine that we already met at the Senior Bowl - I don't share the opinion that it means nothing that we didn't meet with McConkey at the Combine. But I suppose we'll see. If he gets a Pre-Draft visit, maybe he bucks the trend. But right now, I just don't see it. This is a methodical regime and the Combine interview seems to be maybe the most important part of the process to them in Round 1 picks. Edited March 4 by BillsFanForever19 Quote
GunnerBill Posted March 4 Posted March 4 2 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said: My apologies, I misread part of that tweet and missed others. But that being said: - It says literally every player at the Senior Bowl gets a meeting with every team. So his meeting with us was a given. No way of knowing whether that was a required 10 minute meeting or one of the 64 requested extended 25 minute meetings. - I don't believe we send all of our coaches, scouts, and staff to the Senior Bowl - unlike the Combine, as McConkey himself alluded to in his presser. The Senior Bowl interviews are not the same as Combine interviews. - In the past, whether we've met with a player we've Drafted in Round 1 at the Senior Bowl or not - we've still met with them again at the Combine for the interview. Tre'Davious White, Josh Allen, and Dalton Kincaid are the 3 Senior Bowl players Drafted in Round 1 and we interviewed them all at the Combine. And to that end.... - The following is list of players we met with at the Senior Bowl. And unlike McConkey - we met with them again at the Combine: Xavier Legette - WR South Carolina Devontez Walker - WR North Carolina Roman Wilson - WR Michigan Kameron Kinchens - S Miami Payton Wilson - LB NC State Byron Murphy II - DT Texas Javon Solomon - DE Troy Jalyx Hunt - DE Houston Christian Patrick Paul - OT Houston Long story short, between the Senior Bowl process requiring us to meet with everyone there, our history of meeting with meeting with Round 1 Drafted players at both the Senior Bowl and the Combine, and the large list of players we met with at the Combine that we already met at the Senior Bowl - I don't share the opinion that it means nothing that we didn't meet with McConkey at the Combine. Are you sure they met Josh at the Combine? I don't think they did. I thought it was Senior Bowl then on a visit to see him at Wyoming, then they brought him in to Buffalo. Tre they might have done, I thought that was just Senior Bowl but I could be wrong on that it is purely from memory. It is a fair point though about who goes to the Senior Bowl. I don't think McDermott usually goes. He did in 2018 when they were in the QB game but as a rule I don't think the coaches attend. Beane normally does, but how much of a group they send down there is a fair point. They do have a track record of drafting a LOT of Senior Bowl guys though so whoever does go definitely holds some sway! Quote
OldTimer1960 Posted March 4 Posted March 4 9 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said: I'll direct you to my reply to another poster 3 posts above yours. We never skip the Combine interview and Draft a guy in Round 1 simply on the pre-Draft meeting. The pre-Draft meeting is more of a formality and final piece of the puzzle after a good interview. I am not arguing with you. I was simply saying that they could, if desired, still have a significant interview with any of the prospects before the draft. Quote
CNYfan Posted March 4 Posted March 4 7 hours ago, DCOrange said: I get that, but point is there were no reports as far as I can tell that we met with them, much like there are no reports that we met with McConkey. That doesn't necessarily mean it didn't happen. I haven't found a public report about us meeting with any of our first rounders in the McBeane era as a matter of fact. Even the reports about Josh Allen stated that we only met with him at the Senior Bowl before bringing him in for a private workout. McDermott, Pegula and Beane flew to Wyoming to meet with Josh. 1 Quote
Back2Buff Posted March 4 Posted March 4 15 hours ago, Warcodered said: Pearsall is going top 40. I like him a lot better than other WRs that are supposedly first round right now. If Bills take him at 28, I would be very happy. 1 3 Quote
The Firebaugh Kid Posted March 4 Posted March 4 1 hour ago, Back2Buff said: Pearsall is going top 40. I like him a lot better than other WRs that are supposedly first round right now. If Bills take him at 28, I would be very happy. In terms of finding true football players, McConkey Pearsall and Roman Wilson look to me like they fit the mold. 4 Quote
Buffalo_Stampede Posted March 4 Posted March 4 On 2/1/2024 at 5:53 PM, Buffalo_Stampede said: Josh needs some Milk WRs. Don’t complain, no divas. I’m going back to my original thought. Ladd and Pearsall. 1 Quote
Warriorspikes51 Posted March 4 Posted March 4 3 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: I’m going back to my original thought. Ladd and Pearsall. Wouldn't hate it. 4.39 and 4.41 speed Neither is a true alpha X though 1 Quote
SoonerBillsFan Posted March 4 Posted March 4 14 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said: It's sad that it's not a possibility. Flip side, i'd rather have a team in contention rather than picking at the top of the Draft all the time again. Ok so Trade Diggs and our 1st to move up and get him. 😁 1 Quote
Buffalo_Stampede Posted March 4 Posted March 4 Just now, Warriorspikes51 said: Wouldn't hate it. 4.39 and 4.41 speed Neither is a true alpha X though He still has an alpha on the roster, let’s see how the young guys develop. Quote
Warriorspikes51 Posted March 4 Posted March 4 1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said: He still has an alpha on the roster, let’s see how the young guys develop. not sure Diggs is that player anymore. We'll see what happens Quote
Buffalo_Stampede Posted March 4 Posted March 4 Just now, Warriorspikes51 said: not sure Diggs is that player anymore. We'll see what happens He is in mindset. If he’s here they will treat him like it. One of the reasons I want to move on. But no one wants to listen to it.. Quote
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