Ryan O'Halloran - Bills should go Defense Heavy in draft

[starrymessenger]

Unless a premium pick with the desired WR measurables is available at or around 28, I could easily see the Bills going D early rounds (1 and 2) and I wouldn't blame them. A smaller burner vertical receiver with excellent ball skills might be a decent consolation prize but not at the top of the draft. John Brown was a third rounder. That's where guys like that tend to go.

Edited January 25 by starrymessenger

[HappyDays]

5 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

But the Bills can afford Higgens if they make the right choices.

 

 

 

Unfortunately I really don't think they can. Last year there was a path to affording Hopkins if they pulled the right levers and approached free agency the right way. This year the most cap space I could create with realistic moves using Over The Cap's simulator was $8-9million. And that was with me pulling pretty much available lever that makes any kind of sense. A good chunk of that available cap space will have to go towards replacing the players we lose and the draft class. I don't see any way we can make a splash signing. Beane missed his chance last year and now he's stuck in a position where he HAS to draft a WR high. It's non-negotiable.

[Billl]

16 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Unfortunately I really don't think they can. Last year there was a path to affording Hopkins if they pulled the right levers and approached free agency the right way. This year the most cap space I could create with realistic moves using Over The Cap's simulator was $8-9million. And that was with me pulling pretty much available lever that makes any kind of sense. A good chunk of that available cap space will have to go towards replacing the players we lose and the draft class. I don't see any way we can make a splash signing. Beane missed his chance last year and now he's stuck in a position where he HAS to draft a WR high. It's non-negotiable.

And because of that, he likely has to trade up.  Anyone behind him looking for a WR is a threat to jump the Bills similar to what happened in the 2022 draft.

[london_bills]

1 minute ago, Billl said:

And because of that, he likely has to trade up.  Anyone behind him looking for a WR is a threat to jump the Bills similar to what happened in the 2022 draft.

What happened that draft, were we after a WR

[VW82]

4 hours ago, Billever76 said:

Most of our needs have always been on the other side of the ball according to some...and we have went defense heavy in the draft and FA ever since McDermott and bean have been here....when do we start to doubt the process and finally go all in on the offense....with an offensive minded hc we would have went all in on offense instead of signing von and could have grabbed an aj brown devante Adam's caliber wr opposite Diggs...idk about you but I'd say focusing on the wrong side of the ball by this regime has cost us more than many like to admit...in all probability it's cost us that elusive lombardi

McD and Beane just signed extensions. They're not going anywhere for at least a year and maybe two.

 

The notion that we've mainly focused on defense isn't accurate. The issue is some of our draft picks on offense haven't worked out (e.g. Ford, Moss,..Singletary and Knox were ok...). We just used our first two picks on offense last year, and the year before we took Cook in Rd2. Further, we spend more of our cap on offense than defense. Next year is projected to be ~163M offense vs 124M defense. We have greater long-term commitments on offense than defense. Lots of that is Josh, but you don't get to do this analysis pretending like Josh isn't going to cost 40m/yr. Expensive QBs mean there's less $$ to put talent around them. 

 

Hindsight is easy. Two years ago we lost because we couldn't generate enough pressure with out front four, hence the Vonn signing. It didn't work out. We just as easily could've signed a WR and had them blow out their ACL. 

[Billl]

Just now, london_bills said:

What happened that draft, were we after a WR

CB.  Kansas City jumped them and took Trent McDuffie which then prompted Beane to trade up and grab Elam.

[Aussie Joe]

1 minute ago, Billl said:

CB.  Kansas City jumped them and took Trent McDuffie which then prompted Beane to trade up and grab Elam.

Each draft is different….there are a lot more WR prospects this draft then CB prospects in that one 

[starrymessenger]

59 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Each draft is different….there are a lot more WR prospects this draft then CB prospects in that one 

If no WR with the desired traits (size/length/speed) is available at 28 I'd be fine with DeJean converted to strong safety in a zone scheme if he's still on the board.. Thing is I suspect that maybe 3 or perhaps even 4 of those guys will be there or within striking distance for us because maybe 6 QBs will be taken in the first and there are a lot of premium Oline players in this draft as well not to mention some, though maybe not as many, very attractive edge defenders as well. Those positions pretty much always represent a team need (including ours in the case of DLine).  Except for maybe three top end guys the  remaining WRs, some of which seem to fit the bill, are going a little later than some people think imo.

Edited January 25 by starrymessenger

[Aussie Joe]

15 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

If no WR with the desired traits (size/length/speed) is available at 28 I'd be fine with DeJean converted to strong safety in a zone scheme if he's still on the board.. Thing is I suspect that maybe 3 or perhaps even 4 of those guys will be there or within striking distance for us because maybe 6 QBs will be taken in the first and there are a lot of premium Oline players in this draft as well not to mention some, though maybe not as many, very attractive edge defenders as well. Those positions pretty much always represent a team need (including ours in the case of DLine).  Except for maybe three top end guys the  remaining WRs, some of which seem to fit the bill, are going a little later than some people think imo.

I think that it’s likely they can get a good WR prospect at 28 … it’s going to need to be someone who can make a contribution in the 2024 season… so they need to have an alpha personality and be able to play on the outside …some decent speed and good hands …

 Fans of this team should know by now what is required to move up from the late 20s… the last two years Beane has given up his fourth round pick …to move up two spots…

 

So to those saying … “they need to trade up”…. Well what pick are they trading and how far do you expect them to move up?

 

Does their bottom of the third round pick get them up to pick 23-24 ?

 

If the right guy is there then sure … pull that trigger .,, but as far as anything more than that ,,, forget it about it,,,,

 

Some people seem to think that they can move up from 28 to 13 for a couple of Day 3 picks …

[Billever76]

1 hour ago, VW82 said:

McD and Beane just signed extensions. They're not going anywhere for at least a year and maybe two.

 

The notion that we've mainly focused on defense isn't accurate. The issue is some of our draft picks on offense haven't worked out (e.g. Ford, Moss,..Singletary and Knox were ok...). We just used our first two picks on offense last year, and the year before we took Cook in Rd2. Further, we spend more of our cap on offense than defense. Next year is projected to be ~163M offense vs 124M defense. We have greater long-term commitments on offense than defense. Lots of that is Josh, but you don't get to do this analysis pretending like Josh isn't going to cost 40m/yr. Expensive QBs mean there's less $$ to put talent around them. 

 

Hindsight is easy. Two years ago we lost because we couldn't generate enough pressure with out front four, hence the Vonn signing. It didn't work out. We just as easily could've signed a WR and had them blow out their ACL. 

We have used the majority of our early rounds on defense since bean and McDermott have been here and also our FA money.....it's not hard to research that statement and I still standby McDermott is the BIGGEST reason why we can't get over the hump

[Dr. Who]

2 hours ago, starrymessenger said:

Unless a premium pick with the desired WR measurables is available at or around 28, I could easily see the Bills going D early rounds (1 and 2) and I wouldn't blame them. A smaller burner vertical receiver with excellent ball skills might be a decent consolation prize but not at the top of the draft. John Brown was a third rounder. That's where guys like that tend to go.

Passing on WR in both rounds 1 and 2 would absolutely be blameworthy. Fella like Adonai Mitchell could be there at 28. If they wait till late 2nd, I like Ladd McConkey. Folks probably see him as a slot, but I live near Athens, and believe he can run outside routes better than many suppose.

[Kirby Jackson]

17 hours ago, NewEra said:

You don’t see how someone could think that saying the defense “revolves around” safeties = safeties are the most important …..  what does revolves around mean if not meaning it’s the focal point of the defense.  Focal point = most important?  No?  🤷🏻‍♂️

I think we just disagree in thinking that we need to have elite players at safety and should invest higher picks into the position.  We need smart and versatile players that understand the defense and know how to communicate.  I do agree that good safety play is important in McDs defense.  More so than in other defenses.  
 

i just really believe in McDs ability to coach up DBs.  He turned a 4 rd pick into an all pro in Taron. A 2M a year safety into all pro in Poyer.  A upper middle priced safety into an all pro (Hyde).  A 6th round pick into a solid CB2 (Benford). An undrafted CB and a 7th rd CB into solid depth corners (Levi and Benford).  A first rd pick into an all pro (white).  And Douglas has excelled and is getting even better under his tutelage.  I think his only failure to date has been Elam. 
 

looking at past offseasons, many teams have been able to add starter quality safeties at bargain prices.  Free agent safeties should see Buffalo as an ideal landing spot based on McDs coaching 

 

Considering our cap situation for the next 5 years isn’t ideal, landing players at premium positions in the draft would be my ideal way to build the team going forward.  If we were to draft a safety in rd 3, I would understand the pick (depending on the player), I just don’t know if it would be the best use of resources due to McDs ability to coach players up and the price tags on premium positions 

 

No, I read the words as they were written. The defense does revolve around the Safeties’ ability to QB the defense. Their ability to play chess with the QB frees up everyone else. 
 

FWIW, I have a good friend that played for Belichick for years. His favorite player was Ed Reed. BB would show clips, often, of how Reed’s mental games  suckered QBs as good as Manning and Brady. His ability, both physical and mental, completely changed the game. The Bills have that, to a lesser degree. 
 

I don’t think that we disagree on the importance of the position. I think that we just disagree on the investment that should be made. I’m not willing to just bank on, “they’ll develop someone” because if they don’t, the whole defense crumbles. I think that they NEED a higher floor there whether it be in FA or the draft. They need to invest there to ensure that it doesn’t flop. If it flops, the defense fails.
 

If they swing and miss on a rotational DL, so be it. You sign/play a guy like Shaq Lawson instead. You can throw a rock and find rotational guys. They aren’t picking early enough for an impact guy so they are looking at rotational guys anyway.

Edited January 26 by Kirby Jackson

[NewEra]

20 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

No, I read the words as they were written. The defense does revolve around the Safeties’ ability to QB the defense. There ability to play chess with the QB frees up everyone else. 
 

FWIW, I have a good friend that played for Belichick for years. His favorite player was Ed Reed. BB would show clips, often, of how Reed’s mental games  suckered QBs as good as Manning and Brady. His ability, both physical and mental, completely changed the game. The Bills have that, to a lesser degree. 
 

I don’t think that we disagree on the importance of the position. I think that we just disagree on the investment that should be made. I’m not willing to just bank on, “they’ll develop someone” because if they don’t, the whole defense crumbles. I think that they NEED a higher floor there whether it be in FA or the draft. They need to invest there to ensure that it doesn’t flop. If it flops, the defense fails.
 

If they swing and miss on a rotational DL, so be it. You sign/play a guy like Shaq Lawson instead. You can throw a rock and find rotational guys. They aren’t picking early enough for an impact guy so they are looking at rotational guys anyway.

And if the DL flops- the defense fails even worse.  No pressure = game over.  
 

Defensive success is predicated on pressure on the QB more than anything else by a wide margin.  
 

you say that we can just sign a guy like Lawson……I say you just sign a guy like Jordan Poyer. 

[starrymessenger]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

Passing on WR in both rounds 1 and 2 would absolutely be blameworthy. Fella like Adonai Mitchell could be there at 28. If they wait till late 2nd, I like Ladd McConkey. Folks probably see him as a slot, but I live near Athens, and believe he can run outside routes better than many suppose.

The way I was thinking of it if we waited till the third round to draft a smaller burner with route running ability and good ball skills (some of whom have been canvassed here) we would have to be more aggressive in pursuing a higher value FA WR target. I did not mean to stand pat with a third round selection. But in any event I don't think we need to go there. I too think that several premium wideouts with the desired measurables will be there when we pick in the first. They prolly won't be there late in the second. I will check out McConkey.

Edited January 26 by starrymessenger

[Best Williams Available]

McD’s D is typically elite at pass defense and especially in not giving up the big play. I can’t name a play all year (sans blown coverage on Kelce Sunday) where it happened. Stay great at that and draft for that but don’t blow more capital at DL (which is not the reason the pass D is successful). Know you can find gems at DB and S in later rounds and coach them—and then go ALL in on WR.

[Beck Water]

On 1/24/2024 at 2:52 PM, BCAS Baritone said:

Ryan O'Halloran: Free-agent, cap situation means Brandon Beane has to get defensive in draft

https://buffalonews.com/sports/professional/nfl/bills/ryan-ohalloran-free-agent-cap-situation-means-brandon-beane-has-to-get-defensive-in-draft/article_2992c608-ba1b-11ee-8957-5731c06753d8.html

 

 

That doesn't seem to jibe with the general sentiment on this board.  Please read the article first, then discuss.

 

 

While copying the entire article is against copyright, copying some key excerpts for discussion purposes should be OK.  Since it's a paywalled article, folks can't read without subscription.

[DCofNC]

11 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

It's a real shame we can't afford Higgins because that's exactly what this team needs.  

Another WR who can’t stay in the field? Nah, hard pass.

[VW82]

3 hours ago, Billever76 said:

We have used the majority of our early rounds on defense since bean and McDermott have been here and also our FA money.....it's not hard to research that statement and I still standby McDermott is the BIGGEST reason why we can't get over the hump

I did research it before responding to you. I even provided cap figures for you to prove spending is in favour of offense. ???

 

Here's our top three picks by year since McD took over:

 

2017: Tre (defense), Zay (offense), Dawkins (offense)

2018: Josh (offense), Edmunds (defense), Harry (defense)

2019: Oliver (defense), Ford (offense), Singletary (offense)

2020: Epenesa (defense), Moss (offense), Gabe (offense)

2021: Rousseau (defense), Basham (defense) Brown (offense)

2022: Elam (defense), Cook (offense), Bernard (defense)

2023: Kincaid (offense), Torrence (offense), Williams (defense)

 

We used our top pick on defense 5 of the 7 years, but then went offense in 9 of 14 picks over the next two selections. Have we been aggressively targeting defense with our 1s or did it just fall that way? 

 

Also, it's not an accident that we chose to use trades and FA to beef up the offense in Josh's early years with guys like Diggs, Brown, Beasley, Morse, Sanders, etc. You don't give your young and struggling QB a bunch of rookies to play with. Maybe some of this was by design.

Edited January 26 by VW82

[Chicken Boo]

1 hour ago, DCofNC said:

Another WR who can’t stay in the field? Nah, hard pass.

 

He'll cost too much, but until this year he's been relatively healthy.  

 

He's only missed 4 more games than Stef over their first 4 stretch. (leaving out Stef's rookie year where he didn't start)

[BobbyC81]

On 1/24/2024 at 1:01 PM, Nephilim17 said:

Dumb. A top safety or even CB or DT or DE will NOT impact the Bills chance of winning as much as a stud WR on a 5-year rookie contract. Josh throwing to a big, fast young WR is the single biggest difference this team can make going forward.

We lack a "dangerous" player on this team and this is the draft to get a dangerous WR in the first round. Draft a CB or safety in the second but not the first.

Yeah, instead of trading a first for this bum Diggs, they should’ve just kept the pick and drafted Jefferson.  #hindsight