The WR#2 Market (Spotrac Breakdown and Comparison)

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

2 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

Good write-up. 

 

That 2nd tier is not that inspiring, although Darnell Mooney would be intriguing. I would really love to make a play for Calvin Ridley, but you might be right that he could be too expensive.

He's the wild card for me. His projected AAV is $4M higher than Gabe Davis...and if you told me that we'd get someone like Ridley for $4M more per year I'd usually call that more than fair compensation for the difference in talent. 

 

Mooney is the one where I think price and output lines up for an Emmanuel Sanders like year while we would bring a draft pick up to speed.

[DCOrange]

30 minutes ago, 947 said:

Mooney & Samuel are Slot WRs, we do not need that. Shakir is a very good Slot & will likely be for years to come.

 

What we need is an outside WR. I think we draft that guy in the 1st, but we also need a bargain-priced vet for that role. The ones who fit that bill are Chark & Josh Reynolds. Chark would probably be the cheaper of the 2, but I'd be ok with either.

Samuel is exclusively a slot guy. Mooney is around 50/50 in terms of slot vs. wideout. I wouldn’t mind Mooney if his market is cheap but there’s a decent chance he’s a downgrade from Gabe overall. Definitely more speed though. 

Edited January 24 by DCOrange

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

1 minute ago, Mango said:

I agree that he won’t see the end of his contract. Everybody in the building knows it.
 

But restructuring basically guarantees we get close..

 

Out of pocket so keeping this simple with pre-June cuts. 2024 is the only time

cutting/trading Diggs hurt us currently. Restructuring ties the teams hands and kicks the can down the road. The current situation is below. I think (ouch) a restructure ties us together until 2026.

 

2024: -$3M net cap

2025:  $5M

2026:  $15M

2027:  $18M

I don't disagree. My only contention is that I believe Diggs can be a contributing feature for at least the next two years. His route running is still excellent and he can still be dangerous, even if I no longer think he's an elite player so I am not in a hurry to jettison him.

[DrDawkinstein]

Bob Woods has a $9.75M cap hit and only $4.75M in dead money. If the Texans move on, could we bring him back cheap?

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

2 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

Samuel is exclusively a slot guy. Mooney is around 50/50 in terms of slot vs. wideout. I wouldn’t mind Mooney if his market is cheap but there’s a decent chance he’s a downgrade from Gabe overall. 

Mooney would be my "poor man's Gabe" to have a rookie have to fight to take the snaps from him.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

3 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

I don't disagree. My only contention is that I believe Diggs can be a contributing feature for at least the next two years. His route running is still excellent and he can still be dangerous, even if I no longer think he's an elite player so I am not in a hurry to jettison him.

I said entering this year if they want to keep Diggs producing at a high level into his 30s move him into the slot. Let him cook.

 

How long we keep Diggs is up to Diggs.

Edited January 24 by Buffalo_Stampede

[ColoradoBills]

6 minutes ago, Mango said:

I agree that he won’t see the end of his contract. Everybody in the building knows it.
 

But restructuring basically guarantees we get close..

 

Out of pocket so keeping this simple with pre-June cuts. 2024 is the only time

cutting/trading Diggs hurt us currently. Restructuring ties the teams hands and kicks the can down the road. The current situation is below. I think (ouch) a restructure ties us together until 2026.

 

2024: -$3M net cap

2025:  $5M

2026:  $15M

2027:  $18M

 

I wouldn't restructure him again.  You watch how many fans on this board will want to do that.

I'm not sure what Beane decides on this issue, I give it a 50/50 shot on one more restructure.

[Bruffalo]

R1 WR if there are any of the consensus R1 guys left on the board.

R3 WR. 

R6 WR. 

[SoCal Deek]

36 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Hard part for a rookie WR is route running and learning a new playbook. Route running is key because a lot of these WRs in college don’t run many routes. Also understanding coverages. The announcers pointed out a great play by Rice for the Chiefs where he sat down on a zone rather than taking it up field. Said earlier in the year he doesn’t read that coverage.

Once again….not brain surgery. Not even close. 

[NewEra]

Draft and maybe aign possible WR5/6 WRs for 1.7

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I wouldn't restructure him again.  You watch how many fans on this board will want to do that.

I'm not sure what Beane decides on this issue, I give it a 50/50 shot on one more restructure.

 

Agreed. Even if I am in favor of having him stick around longer than some others may want, I think that restructure is one of the last levers on a long list of levers Beane can pull to clear space. Break glass in case of emergency. Otherwise, keep the flexibility.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, SoCal Deek said:

Once again….not brain surgery. Not even close. 

Playing WR is pretty difficult. I definitely wouldn’t call it an easy position although rookies are having a lot of success lately. So yes it’s probably safe to say that a rookie should come in and have a very productive season with Buffalo. 

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I said entering this year if they want to keep Diggs producing at a high level into his 30s move him into the slot. Let him cook.

 

How long we keep Diggs is up to Diggs.

Yeah. I remember the rejuvenation that Larry Fitzgerald had in 2015-17 when they moved him inside. Superb route running works very well over the middle of the field, and we've put Diggs into the slot before. It can work. But we'd need a replacement (or two)

[Allen2Moulds]

40 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I refuse to believe that catching a football is brain surgery. Just draft a guy with the physical tools and have Josh throw him the football! I couldn’t care less whether anyone considers him a #1 or #2. 

Wish it was that simple, but WRs need to read coverage as well, in order to be on the same page with the QB. We've all seen what that looks like, when that doesn't happen. That being said, I agree with swinging for the fences and going after a physical freak in the draft. Now who that Is, I don't know, but do hope Beane and Company are spending a lot of time evaluating that position.

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

My top 2nd tier WR2 targets are Samuel and Mooney. I think the Bills will have interest in both.

They can. It depends what they do with Diggs. Samuel and Mooney would be great additions. Both would excel playing with Josh.

Nothing will happen with Diggs. His cap hit is too large to do anything other than keep him. 

[corta765]

If I have things my way we are drafting a round 1, another WR between rnds 2-4, and adding Josh Reynolds.

 

I want the WR corp truly upgraded talent short and long term. Shakir is your slot WR3, Diggs can transition into WR2 24-25, and new draft pick goes to WR1 hopefully. The other WR is development piece like we did with Gabe Davis who was at his best when he was WR3/4 behind Diggs-Beasley-Brown/Sanders.

 

The defense is mostly set outside of DT/SAF and you can find guys cheap to help. I am investing to max Josh out at this point as they haven't touched the WR position for real in year. Shakir is looking like a great pick but it is a bit of luck too. I want to increase that luck and odds.

[BuffaloBill]

1 hour ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Here is my plan:

Keep Diggs - I think he was battling injury. He is still a viable force and a mentor for a draftee

Draft one in Rd 1

Shakir as #3

Round off with a second tier FA 

Look at progress of Shorter and Shavers

Another lower (Rd 5+ pick)

 

We cannot just depend on the draft. We need at least one FA, maybe 2 to round off the roster

 

 

I am beginning to believe that Diggs may be a one trick pony who is a bit played out.  Various corners have been highly effective in shutting him down.  There remains a question as to whether scheme is an issue in his decline. Whatever the reason, his drop in production has been alarming and problematic.

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

Nothing will happen with Diggs. His cap hit is too large to do anything other than keep him. 

This year we find out if there’s really any issues with Diggs and the Bills. I know there’s a lot of dead cap but it is possible for the Bills to move on and save over $10 million in cap. That’s significant enough to consider if there are any beefs between the Bills and Diggs. We’ll just have to wait and see.

[Scott7975]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

This year we find out if there’s really any issues with Diggs and the Bills. I know there’s a lot of dead cap but it is possible for the Bills to move on and save over $10 million in cap. That’s significant enough to consider if there are any beefs between the Bills and Diggs. We’ll just have to wait and see.

not this coming season. His cap hit is 27m. His dead cap is 31m. How do you figure they would save 10m? They would pay more to release him than keep him. 

Edited January 24 by Scott7975

[Maine-iac]

5 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Mooney would be my "poor man's Gabe" to have a rookie have to fight to take the snaps from him.

It's an interesting comparison in that they are very different.  The knock on Gabe is his top end speed route tree and Mooney is much faster both in and out of cuts and top end.  So hypothetically Mooney would be much better at taking the top off a defense.  Where I'm not sure about Mooney is the dirty work stuff like run blocking and overall physicallity.  Gabe also knew how to get open in the end zone.  Mooney and Shakir might be great together playing off of Diggs.  Still like everyone is saying I hope we are able to draft someone who's physically talented and skilled enough to fight for an outside WR spot.