Was the Bills/Chiefs Game decided in Week 18?

[SCBills]

We can all lament on how we just didn't get the breaks.  Why did the injuries have to hit so significantly right before we played Kansas City?  Why don't the bounces go our way.. Why is KC always seem to be luckier than us when it comes to staying healthy?  McDermott even addressed this as something we need to look at re: the heavy injury situation we've faced lately. 

 

Well...

 

It's a one game season in the Playoffs, but what you do all season has a massive effect on that one game season.

 

KC Road to the Super Bowl last year consisted of a BYE Week and then Home against a weak Divisional opponent in Jax. 

 

BAL Road to the AFC Championship Game this year consisted of a BYE week and then Home against a weak Divisional opponent in Houston.

 

That matters.  

 

And what else also matters?....

 

The fact that we had to go all out for the last 1/3rd of the season to even make the playoffs.  The fact we had to go all out to win the Division in Week 18.  The fact we had to play a grueling second half against Pittsburgh in the WC Round when we were about to run away with the game before halftime. 

 

It all adds up..

 

KC didn't have a bye week, but they rested guys Week 18 and made easy work of the Dolphins.  

 

We can all pretend that it's just about getting into the playoffs and letting the chips fall where they may..  but the 1 seed is an absurdly huge advantage in the new format and if you can't get that.. rest down the stretch becomes even more important.  

 

We lost a few guys in that Miami game.  And then we lost some guys in the Steelers game.  We know guys were playing through injury, pushing themselves down the stretch.  Bernard hurt his ankle against the Chargers, and then had to push through it.. maybe if he doesn't have to push so hard.. who knows. 

 

But what I do know, is that now.. more than ever... it matters what you do in the regular season.   And I can't help but believe, with the difference between winning and losing in these Chiefs games being so small.. that Week 18 mattered more than we could have ever known. 

 

The 3 best teams in the AFC were Baltimore, KC and Buffalo.  Baltimore had a two week bye.  KC had a pseudo one week bye.  Bills had to push all their chips in down the stretch.

 

It takes luck.  Sometimes you have to make your own luck.  

[whorlnut]

Tough to blame injuries when our healthiest unit on d (the dline) failed to touch Mahomes.

[PBF81]

Just now, whorlnut said:

Tough to blame injuries when our healthiest unit on d (the dline) failed to touch Mahomes.

 

Or do much to stop their running game, Pacheco's 2nd-best yards-per-carry game of the season and 4th best yards-from-scrimmage performance.  

 

The question is whether we did all that we could do, including, once again, not making boneheaded decisions and conservative play-calling leading to 3.6 Yards-per-Play in the 2nd Half with once again, seemingly zero ability to adjust, thereby getting out-coached again in the playoffs, etc.  

 

We clearly did not.  

 

The excuses provided on McDivision's behalf are seemingly endless.  

 

 

[whorlnut]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

Or do much to stop their running game, Pacheco's 2nd-best yards-per-carry game of the season and 4th best yards-from-scrimmage performance.  

 

The question is whether we did all that we could do, including, once again, not making boneheaded decisions and conservative play-calling leading to 3.6 Yards-per-Play in the 2nd Half with once again, seemingly zero ability to adjust, thereby getting out-coached again in the playoffs, etc.  

 

We clearly did not.  

 

The excuses provided on McDivision's behalf are seemingly endless.  

 

 

What really makes this tough is that we spent an entire offseason a few years ago with the sole purpose of “sacking Mahomes”. It’s embarrassing. 
 

Im not sure how much more proof they need that this just might not be possible at a high rate. Philly had the best d line in the league last year and couldn’t touch him in the sb. We need to build this o around Allen and make it impossible to keep up with us. 

Edited January 24 by whorlnut

[SCBills]

6 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

What really makes this tough is that we spent an entire offseason a few years ago with the sole purpose of “sacking Mahomes”. It’s embarrassing. 

 

I think it's time for a new philosophy.  KC's Defense was far healthier and they couldn't sack Allen, or stop Allen, without the help of our WR's dropping passes and a missed FG kick.

 

Refs don't call playoff games the same way.

 

These were two of the top 5 teams in sacks.  Zero sacks combined all game. 

 

Also, it's hard to sack someone when your back 7 can't cover anyone.  And it's hard to stop the run, when you can't risk taking your Nickel corner off the field, let alone bring up LB's to play the run due to the coverage issues.  

 

Rasul Douglas should not have played. He was at best, around 50%.   We were essentially down CB1, CB2 and our top coverage LB.  

 

The Defense was a disgrace and I'm not letting McDermott off the hook as him being a Defensive guy, I'm still waiting for that to show itself in the Playoffs, sans a wind game against Lamar, but Week 18 & the WC Round had a profound effect on our ability to stop KC.

 

And like it or not, but losing Gabe Week 18 proved to be a big deal. 

 

 

Edited January 24 by SCBills

[FilthyBeast]

The Chiefs won because they have the better coach, QB and defense which was validated yet again in this latest matchup. They are also the defending world champions playing in their 6 straight AFCCG. Why people choose to over analyze the situation is a frivolous waste of time

 

Also I think the injury excuse is tiresome at this point as well especially when it's already been pointed out that when a healthy Milano, White, etc has played in these games the result has been exactly the same. The issue that does need to be addressed though is this regimes persistent drafting of undersized, injury prone players (mostly on defense which is no coincidence). I think you also have to clean house with the training/strength and conditioning staff at this point as well.

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, FilthyBeast said:

The Chiefs won because they have the better coach, QB and defense which was validated yet again in this latest matchup. They are also the defending world champions playing in their 6 straight AFCCG. Why people choose to over analyze the situation is a frivolous waste of time

 

Also I think the injury excuse is tiresome at this point as well especially when it's already been pointed out that when a healthy Milano, White, etc has played in these games the result has been exactly the same. The issue that does need to be addressed though is this regimes persistent drafting of undersized, injury prone players (mostly on defense which is no coincidence). I think you also have to clean house with the training/strength and conditioning staff at this point as well.

 

My point about the game being decided in Week 18 is not a defense of McDermott.  Far from it.  

 

 

[mannc]

19 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Tough to blame injuries when our healthiest unit on d (the dline) failed to touch Mahomes.

KC's d-line didn't touch Allen, either.  The officials decided to allow holding on the o-line.  Go figure.

[DrDawkinstein]

What it comes down to is simple:

 

Beat the Jets, Pats, and Broncos like you should have when you were 100% healthy (or close enough to it), and we have the #1 spot locked up and can rest guys week 18 AND get the Bye in week 19.

 

17 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Tough to blame injuries when our healthiest unit on d (the dline) failed to touch Mahomes.

 

And our entire OL has been healthy all year.

 

Both trench units, arguably up there with QB as most important personnel, were pretty healthy.

 

Losing LBs in a league that has devalued the LB position shouldnt have affected us to the point of ruining our season. I know there were other injuries but we had enough guys to go.

[whorlnut]

Just now, mannc said:

KC's d-line didn't touch Allen, either.  The officials decided to allow holding on the o-line.  Go figure.

That’s a good point. More reasons to load up on offense and make other teams try to keep pace with us. 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

KC's d-line didn't touch Allen, either.  The officials decided to allow holding on the o-line.  Go figure.

 

Totally fine with that. After a full season of seeing more ref time on air than I'd ever want to in my lifetime, they can keep their flags in their pockets.

 

Especially since they did it fairly for both teams. Too bad the Bills couldnt figure out a way to capitalize on that gift.

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

What it comes down to is simple:

 

Beat the Jets, Pats, and Broncos like you should have when you were 100% healthy (or close enough to it), and we have the #1 spot locked up and can rest guys week 18 AND get the Bye in week 19.

 

 

And our entire OL has been healthy all year.

 

Both trench units, arguably up there with QB as most important personnel, were pretty healthy.

 

Losing LBs in a league that has devalued the LB position shouldnt have affected us to the point of ruining our season. I know there were other injuries but we had enough guys to go.

You nailed it 👍…this team can’t be losing crap games next season

[whorlnut]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

What it comes down to is simple:

 

Beat the Jets, Pats, and Broncos like you should have when you were 100% healthy (or close enough to it), and we have the #1 spot locked up and can rest guys week 18 AND get the Bye in week 19.

 

 

And our entire OL has been healthy all year.

 

Both trench units, arguably up there with QB as most important personnel, were pretty healthy.

 

Losing LBs in a league that has devalued the LB position shouldnt have affected us to the point of ruining our season. I know there were other injuries but we had enough guys to go.

I agree. Well said. The point is that if we have a defense that is top 8-12, that should be good enough if you give the offense the weapons it needs to make it unstoppable. The problem is…will McD sign off on this?  I don’t know if he will be ok with having a “good enough” defense. 

[PBF81]

15 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

What really makes this tough is that we spent an entire offseason a few years ago with the sole purpose of “sacking Mahomes”. It’s embarrassing. 
 

Im not sure how much more proof they need that this just might not be possible at a high rate. Philly had the best d line in the league last year and couldn’t touch him in the sb. We need to build this o around Allen and make it impossible to keep up with us. 

 

That's the core of the entire debate. 

 

Are we the only team in the league with a great QB that has only very minimally tried to do that.  

 

It would seem to be common sense that if you Draft Allen, build around him.  Apparently that's an insurmountable mental hurdle for McD, in all sincerity.  

 

He's playing more like Richardson did at Florida than as someone with the strongest arm in the NFL that can make any throw.  

 

That's the way they now have it under Brady.  

 

 

[FilthyBeast]

1 minute ago, SCBills said:

 

My point about the game being decided in Week 18 is not a defense of McDermott.  Far from it.  

 

 

 

I didn't address that because we've seen mixed results through the years in terms of teams resting their key players. Chiefs have done this pretty much on an annual basis the last 6 years and they've obviously never in the playoffs as a result. In fact I believe Andy Reid has the best record in NFL history coming off a bye week in both regular/postseason.

 

Regardless outside of the Chiefs being somewhat of an anomaly I still always tend to favor the team that has is battled tested and don't rest players which is one of the main reasons I think the Texans also beat the Browns convincingly a few weeks ago despite everyone jumping on that bandwagon. Browns rested everyone the last week of the season and the Texans played a gritty must win game in Indy to secure a playoff spot, then ultimately division when Jaguars collapse was finished.

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, strive_for_five_guy said:

You nailed it 👍…this team can’t be losing crap games next season

 

Line the Bills and Ravens rosters up on paper and theyre pretty close.

The main difference is their future HoF coach who oversees the entire team, not just one unit, and keeps the entire team consistently ready to play.

 

That's why they have 13 (could have been 14 if they wanted) wins and we're squeezing out 11.

[boyst]

1 minute ago, whorlnut said:

I agree. Well said. The point is that if we have a defense that is top 8-12, that should be good enough if you give the offense the weapons it needs to make it unstoppable. The problem is…will McD sign off on this?  I don’t know if he will be ok with having a “good enough” defense. 

our defense declined. we are old, we got tired, we got hurt.

 

their defense improved. they are young, they got experienced, they got better.

[Beast]

The way I look at it is that we wanted them at home. We lost. End of story.

 

Even when we were healthier we barely beat them in KC.

 

Two fairly even matched teams that one gets it done when it matters most and the other had the ability to do so but hasn’t.

 

 

 

 

[FilthyBeast]

5 minutes ago, mannc said:

KC's d-line didn't touch Allen, either.  The officials decided to allow holding on the o-line.  Go figure.

 

They actually did though on the biggest play of the game when Chris Jones hit Allen at the right time when he threw what in all likelihood was a TD pass to Shakir which would have taken a 31-27 lead and forced Mahomes to answer back with TD instead of FG. Obviously in hindsight this is the only game changing play that truly mattered.

 

This is still one of the main differences with the Bills (and why a 'defensive' head coach needs to go) because we simply don't have a guy that can do that on the defensive side in crucial moments.

[whorlnut]

The good thing in all this is it finally seems McD gets it. He talked for a while about throwing the ball and having explosive plays yesterday. You honestly have to be blind if you can’t see what this team lacks and what it needs more than anything else.