2024 - Where are the holes and how will we fill them?

[Captain Caveman]

I'm not sure if I'm totally ready to talk about next season, but I'm pretty sure I don't have the stomach to talk about this season, so here it is.  Everyone is aware that we have a fair number of big decisions coming that will most likely see us move on from a number of players who have been considered "core" for a while now.  

So who do you think is moving on, and how do you see us filling in the roster?

 

Here is what I see as being likely - 

 

Gone - Hyde, Davis, Floyd, Jones

These contracts are up, Hyde is not the same player he was and I honestly hope he will retire with the health issues he's faced.  Davis I expect will earn more on the market than the Bills will (and should) spend.  I would expect we will have some big holes to fill on the D line as well with Leonard Floyd and DaQuan Jones both having expiring contracts and having played well enough to earn more than we can likely pay.

 

Big Question Marks - Poyer, White, Morse, Epenesa

I am kind of expecting Poyer to move on, I know he has another year left but he didn't seem to be the same player this year and if he does play I think the Bills should look to upgrade / improve.  With Tre White, I don't know if anyone is expecting him to be ready to start the season, and whenever he is ready to play I don't think most are expecting him to regain his form.  Again, he might be our CB2, or might be depth (or moved to safety?) but depending on cap considerations I could see them moving on completely.  Mitch Morse is going into the last year of his contract, is going to be 32 and everyone knows about the concussions.  He may play out the contract, but I believe it's important. that we have a worthy successor going into next season.  AJ Epenesa has played through his rookie contract, and may have played well enough to earn a contract paying him well somewhere, but based on his production I'd be surprised if it's here.

 

Other Question Marks - Milano, Rapp, Knox, Diggs

Matt Milano's injury could be hard to come back from.  I'd be surprised if he's not ready to go, but I think we need to be better prepared at backup LB going into next season.  Is Taylor Rapp going to re-sign here?  He was a backup, but I could see the Bills offering him a contract and making him a longer term replacement at one of the 2 open safetly positions - the question will be how much $ is he looking for and what can we afford with our cap situation.  Which brings me to Knox - I have heard some people mention that the Bills could save some cap space this year by cutting him.  I'm not sure of the details, but it's an interesting thought to consider.  And lastly, Stefon Diggs.  I don't think there's any chance he's gone next year, but I do think the Bills need to be looking very carefully into the future at WR, and not just at WR2 / Gabe Davis Replacement.  Diggs may be getting to the point in his career (based on age and the 2nd half of this season where it just wasn't hapenning for him) where he's more of a WR2 and needs another great receiver to take some pressure off him.  

 

So - in terms of positions of need, I see S, WR, DL, CB, LB and possibly TE, with several positions needing to replace starters and in some cases needing multiple reinforcements.  

 

In terms of draft capital, we likely have 10 picks coming, but weighted towards the back of the draft.

 

First round: Own pick.

Second round: Own pick.

Third round: (likely 3rd round compensatory pick for Tremaine Edmunds)

Fourth round: Own pick.

Fifth round: Own pick. Pick from Green Bay.

Sixth round: Own pick. Pick from Los Angeles Rams. Pick from Houston Texans.

Seventh round: Own pick.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TheFunPolice]

sign Darnell Savage (S) from Green Bay if he gets to free agency. 

 

Up and down young player, but one thing McDermott does have a history of is getting the absolute most out of DBs 

 

He should be a moderate contract as well, so it could work. Poyer and Savage for 1 year?

[frostbitmic]

WR 1B ... First round draft pick (Franklin, Oregon) ... Need someone to replace Davis, though they might already have the guy with Kincaid. They should leave Shakir in the slot. But the need is to give Diggs a true running mate and threat out there and of course to replace Diggs when its time.

 

Safety ... It looks like Hyde is done here and maybe retiring and it wouldn't surprise me to see Poyer go out with him. I'm not sure Rapp has earned a big payday but maybe they can rent him for another year. Hamlin is a backup. (Tyler Nubin - S - Minnesota) in the 2nd round would be hard to pass on.

 

DT ... Under contract we have Oliver, I'm pretty sure that's it right now ... Jones is great when healthy, but he's 32, how well is the last big contract we gave to a 30+ year old working out ? ... I think they're done with Phillips, Joseph might be kept on speed dial for November or December. Could probably keep Settle cheap. Whether they pay Jones or not, they need a DT (Mekhi Wingo - LSU) in the 3rd.

 

Another WR

A between the Tackles big powerful back to replace Murray and Harris

A QB ... Time to have a young guy and bring him along instead of paying millions to backups.

DE ... Floyd looking for and will get $$$ elsewhere, probably Epenesa as well. Jonathan has looked decent in the little action he gets and you Could probably keep Lawson cheap.

K & P competitions should happen.

 

Good thing they have 10 draft picks.

[boyst]

a lot depends on the Miller situation. If all things are equal he will be suspended. But that we haven't heard a peep about this makes me think it's a non-story and been swept under already. For Zeke he was in Dallas so it was always brought up.

 

If we can get out of the Miller situation by suspension than we can bring back Floyd and AJE.

[GASabresIUFan]

4 hours ago, Captain Caveman said:

So who do you think is moving on, and how do you see us filling in the roster?

 

Here is what I see as being likely - 

 

Gone - Hyde, Davis, Floyd, Jones

I expect both Floyd and Jones to return.

 

Big Question Marks - Poyer, White, Morse, Epenesa

I believe Poyer will return for one more year.  I also expect Morse will return, as he said he wants to return already.  I think they'll even extend him a year at a lower cap hit and use the extension to get some cap savings this season.  I think they'll cut White (or reach an injury settlement of some kind.) Moving on from him will lead to a $6 mill in cap saving for 2024.

 

Other Question Marks - Milano, Rapp, Knox, Diggs

Milano is going to be fine.  The Knox and Diggs contracts should be left alone as we can get out from under both after the 2025 season.  I expect both players to remain reasonably productive over the next two seasons, but with shrinking roles.  Rapp is a question.  I have zero idea what they think about him.  His return maybe dependant on what happens with Poyer and the draft and  whether they want to give Hamlin a chance at a bigger role.

 

From a draft standpoint.  We need 2 WRs, a safety and probably a pass rusher.  I'd like to see Beane trade down from 28 to add at least another 3rd rd pick (ours in only a compensatory 3rd) to replace the 3rd they gave up for Douglas (great trade by the way).  I'd go WR, S, DL, WR with our 1st 4 picks, especially if we make the suggested trade.  I'm a bulldog fan so Mitchell, Bullard, Braswell (Bama - Edge), McConkey or Brendan Rice.

 

 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

4 hours ago, Captain Caveman said:

I'm not sure if I'm totally ready to talk about next season, but I'm pretty sure I don't have the stomach to talk about this season, so here it is.  Everyone is aware that we have a fair number of big decisions coming that will most likely see us move on from a number of players who have been considered "core" for a while now.  

So who do you think is moving on, and how do you see us filling in the roster?

 

Here is what I see as being likely - 

 

Gone - Hyde, Davis, Floyd, Jones

These contracts are up, Hyde is not the same player he was and I honestly hope he will retire with the health issues he's faced.  Davis I expect will earn more on the market than the Bills will (and should) spend.  I would expect we will have some big holes to fill on the D line as well with Leonard Floyd and DaQuan Jones both having expiring contracts and having played well enough to earn more than we can likely pay.

 

Big Question Marks - Poyer, White, Morse, Epenesa

I am kind of expecting Poyer to move on, I know he has another year left but he didn't seem to be the same player this year and if he does play I think the Bills should look to upgrade / improve.  With Tre White, I don't know if anyone is expecting him to be ready to start the season, and whenever he is ready to play I don't think most are expecting him to regain his form.  Again, he might be our CB2, or might be depth (or moved to safety?) but depending on cap considerations I could see them moving on completely.  Mitch Morse is going into the last year of his contract, is going to be 32 and everyone knows about the concussions.  He may play out the contract, but I believe it's important. that we have a worthy successor going into next season.  AJ Epenesa has played through his rookie contract, and may have played well enough to earn a contract paying him well somewhere, but based on his production I'd be surprised if it's here.

 

Other Question Marks - Milano, Rapp, Knox, Diggs

Matt Milano's injury could be hard to come back from.  I'd be surprised if he's not ready to go, but I think we need to be better prepared at backup LB going into next season.  Is Taylor Rapp going to re-sign here?  He was a backup, but I could see the Bills offering him a contract and making him a longer term replacement at one of the 2 open safetly positions - the question will be how much $ is he looking for and what can we afford with our cap situation.  Which brings me to Knox - I have heard some people mention that the Bills could save some cap space this year by cutting him.  I'm not sure of the details, but it's an interesting thought to consider.  And lastly, Stefon Diggs.  I don't think there's any chance he's gone next year, but I do think the Bills need to be looking very carefully into the future at WR, and not just at WR2 / Gabe Davis Replacement.  Diggs may be getting to the point in his career (based on age and the 2nd half of this season where it just wasn't hapenning for him) where he's more of a WR2 and needs another great receiver to take some pressure off him.  

 

So - in terms of positions of need, I see S, WR, DL, CB, LB and possibly TE, with several positions needing to replace starters and in some cases needing multiple reinforcements.  

 

In terms of draft capital, we likely have 10 picks coming, but weighted towards the back of the draft.

 

First round: Own pick.

Second round: Own pick.

Third round: (likely 3rd round compensatory pick for Tremaine Edmunds)

Fourth round: Own pick.

Fifth round: Own pick. Pick from Green Bay.

Sixth round: Own pick. Pick from Los Angeles Rams. Pick from Houston Texans.

Seventh round: Own pick.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think your priorities look correct except I'd move WR ahead of S. Looks pretty good otherwise.

[4th&long]

The hopes are obvious. WR, going to be safety. They fill them like they always do. Cheap free agents first, try to fill as many holes as the can with that so they are free to pick bpa in the draft. Who they get in the draft or sign in FA is above my pay grade.

[Mike in Horseheads]

1 hour ago, boyst said:

a lot depends on the Miller situation. If all things are equal he will be suspended. But that we haven't heard a peep about this makes me think it's a non-story and been swept under already. For Zeke he was in Dallas so it was always brought up.

 

If we can get out of the Miller situation by suspension than we can bring back Floyd and AJE.

Does a suspension void his contract?

[BuffaloBillyG]

For me and what my plan would be, I would start at the CB spot and that revolves around Tre White at the moment. If White is healthy enough to return, I offer him a pay cut to stay on. At his age, coming off 2 serious injuries he just likely won't be the same. However, we now have Rasul to take over at CB1 and Tre can stick at CB2. If Tre is open to the pay cut due to reduced role (and yes, there would be incentives in the contract to allow him to recover some of the loss) that's a slam dunk. I would also bring Dane Jackson back as he likely won't break the bank and knows the system.

 

CB1: Douglas

CB2: White

CB3: Benford/Jackson/Elam

 

The reason I have those 3 named at CB3 is if White is healthy and back it would allow the Bills to finally consider moving Benford to Safety to cover a spot. And I think as good as he's been at corner he translates even better to safety. JMO. From there I let Rapp walk. Day 2 pick spent on a safety with a young vet in as well. I love Damar Hamlin as a person, but if we fail to upgrade on him as a backup it's a failure  My target would be Kyle Dugger or Kamren Curl. Poyer can stay, however I'd like to see him in the role that Rapp had this year. Less snaps but still a part of the game plan. 

 

I believe they need to draft a DT by the end of day 2. Even then, help will be needed. We will also need guys at EDGE. Von...not expecting much from him. Would love Floyd back. Would take AJE back at the right price. 

 

At LBer, I go into the season with Bernard, Milano, Dodson, Williams and Spector and feel pretty good about that unit. 

 

 

Offense: David Edwards is a guy I bring back. At WR I look day 1 to draft one, but also bring in a mid level vet. I'm ok double dipping here with a late rounder with SPEED. 

 

I look to the late rounds to add a RB that fills the Latavius Murray power role. 

 

I would also bring in a punter with a big,big leg. Give him time to practice holding for the kicker if need be. You know the one. And a kicker to not only compete with Bass, but also let him not have to take every training camp and preseason kick. 

[transplantbillsfan]

DT, DE and Safety are the 3 positions we need to fill with the most people.  Only 1 DT under contract, 4 DEs (and 2 of those are Kingsley Jonathan and Cameron Kline), and 2 Safeties in Poyer and Hamlin.

 

#2 WR is a huge need and must be addressed, but we've got lots of holes to fill.

 

Morse will be back.

[corta765]

I look at this way needs vs wants when it comes to holes. I feel at this point you can safely say the Bills have their QB, RB1/3, WR1/2sih depending on your feelings with Diggs, WR3 Shakir, TE1 Kincaid TE2, OLine, DT3spot, DE1Groot, LB corp set, & CB set. If we had the ability I would want to probably tweak the CB group with another draft pick for depth especially if White is cut and Dane Jackson walks. IF Poyer is kept (he was fine this year imo) then you need just 1 safety.

 

Without any moves at this point you have the following holes:

1. WR 1/2,

2. DT potentially 2x

3. DE potentially 2x

4. SAF potentially 2x

5. WR3/4

 

You can tell with Beane's comments the WR position will probably be the one most addressed with high pick or two in the draft. What happens with DaQuan Jones will impact the need at DT so much because if he is willing to stay they can probably add a vet or two like this year and be in good shape. DE AJ I unfortunately expect to test market so you may be looking at draft pick and vet signing or two. SAF is the spot I see them going bargain hunting as McD is very good at developing players there and his scheme historically does a great job of allow safeties to have opportunities to make plays.

 

I fully expect in this draft to have the first five rounds look something like this (no order):

WR/DT/DE/SAF/WR

 

They have 10 picks although I wouldn't be surprised to see Beane trade one or two to move up. The WR position over any is a true need as Diggs is aging, Davis is gone, and they have seen the last two years that the lack of depth at WR has hurt production on offense. SAF is probably the other true need, but I really think their plan is water into wine again so DT who fits with Oliver whether it be Jones or not is the other true need. 

2 hours ago, boyst said:

a lot depends on the Miller situation. If all things are equal he will be suspended. But that we haven't heard a peep about this makes me think it's a non-story and been swept under already. For Zeke he was in Dallas so it was always brought up.

 

If we can get out of the Miller situation by suspension than we can bring back Floyd and AJE.

 

Yep and it really depends on if Beane is willing to bite the bullet to get Von out either way. They can cut him post June 1st and it clears 6 mil. Like you said if he is suspended its a big life boat, I just wouldn't depend on it. But I think more then anything how they view and value Von will determine more then anything else.

[boyst]

i think Hyde could come back. i also wish the organization would tell him flat out he is welcome back as an assistant coach. in the need of injuries, etc. change his position to practice squad, and boom we have a backup safety. do the same with Klein.

[Yantha]

WR

OC

DT

DE

FS

SS

 

Thats my list for now….   Pretty happy with quite a lot, despite the loss.