Kurt Warner All22

[BBFL]

6 hours ago, Brand J said:

Final 2nd & 9 and 3rd & 9 really illustrate how Josh got out of taking what the defense was giving him versus wanting to go for the kill shot TD. Both plays had available receivers for potential first down yardage. But, as Warner says, up until that point he had played virtually perfect football. To beat another QB playing close to perfect, it would’ve taken perfection all throughout. The lapse got us. To be clear, I don’t blame Josh, I blame the sieve of a defense. It’d be interesting to see how often we disrupted their routes. 

The 2nd & 9 wasn’t the problem. That was actually the right pass of Jones doesn’t push Dawkins back into Josh’s lap. That throw is no different than the shot downfield to Diggs who came up empty after it went through both hands…

 

 

The 3rd down after was an issue though… checking it down immediately instead of rushing out of the pocket and rolling to the side everyone flooded to is rough. Looking back on it, even though in the moment it would be hard to see, Josh should have stepped up in the pocket and bailed left instead of what he ended up doing…

 

Either way, Josh put us in a position to take a lead, tie or win the game several times. Collective miscues from the team as a whole let us finish the season Sunday. 

[Doc Brown]

3 minutes ago, BBFL said:

The 2nd & 9 wasn’t the problem. That was actually the right pass of Jones doesn’t push Dawkins back into Josh’s lap. That throw is no different than the shot downfield to Diggs who came up empty after it went through both hands…

Yeah it was.  Even if he hits that low percentage throw you still give Mahomes the ball back down 4 with 1:50 left and two timeouts.  Mahomes was carving up our defense all night so you don't want to give him the ball back with much time.   

 

What really is frustrating is you had the perfect play call to hit Diggs underneath which probably results in a first down.  You then have the ball inside their 20 with two time outs left and the clock is ticking.  They pry burn a timeout there so they only have one left.  First and 10 in the Red Zone with about 1:45 left and the Chiefs only having one timeout.  The playbook is wide open and they have the dual threat of Allen and Cook in the run game.  I like our chances to score a touchdown under 30 seconds and at worst a chip shot FG with little time left to send it to OT.  What's even worse is they had the whole two minute warning to discuss it.  Instead you have two heaves to the End Zone that stops the clock, preserves KC's two timeouts so even if you make the field goal all they need is three on the next drive, and have to rely on an unreliable kicker from 44 yards out.

[MiracleAtRich1393]

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

A whole lot of that is creating your plays, play-calling, and overall scheme to match the talents of your WRs.  

 

Beyond that it's a Beane issue.  But hey, when you never draft a WR on days 1 or 2, ... 

 

As they say, you'll never hit unless you buy a ticket.  

 

 

 

R1: WR

R2: WR

R3: WR

 

All must run 4.3/4.4 minimum with separation skills. There's a buttload this year.

 

Use the day 3 picks for trade ups on day 2, a safety, 1T DT depth, RB depth, and CB depth (Alex Austin type)

 

 

[Niagara Dude]

6 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The difference is Mahomes didn't have to play perfect.  His scheme had open people and his receivers made catches and plays with the ball.  And his kicker made the FG

 

You can't really install an offense in the middle of the season.  All he can do is make tweaks and narrow play selection.  I dunno if Brady is the guy or not, just saying.  Honestly, he doesnt even have a lot of talent to work with.  IMO he at least got guys involved that Dorsey didn't.  He got a run game working that Dorsey didn't.  So he has that going for him.

I just hope if Brady is the OC then we change how we play, these long time consuming drives at not it.  Get back to quick strike and big chuck play football

[TheWeatherMan]

7 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

KC has s great D this year, that should be accounted for

Must be nice to have a head coach with a pedigree on the defensive side of the ball…oh wait…we do…and he sucks every playoffs.

[Matt_In_NH]

42 minutes ago, MiracleAtRich1393 said:

 

R1: WR

R2: WR

R3: WR

 

All must run 4.3/4.4 minimum with separation skills. There's a buttload this year.

 

Use the day 3 picks for trade ups on day 2, a safety, 1T DT depth, RB depth, and CB depth (Alex Austin type)

 

 

This would be the dumbest draft by any team ever.  

[Xwnyer]

10 hours ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

Save yourselves some time.  The Bills have horrible route runners.  End of discussion.  

With poorly designed routes.  We flood four receivers into same area making easy for the safeties to keep things in front of them

[billybob71]

if Kurt Warner can tell whats wrong within an hour of study it sounds like Bills should hire him!

Edited January 24 by billybob71

[Pete]

22 minutes ago, billybob71 said:

if Kurt Warner can tell whats wrong within an hour of study it sounds like Bills should hire him!

You don't need to be Greg Cossell to watch an ALL 22 and see that  Davis, Diggs, Sherf -typically get zero seperation, especially playoff time

[finn]

3 hours ago, BBFL said:

The 2nd & 9 wasn’t the problem. That was actually the right pass of Jones doesn’t push Dawkins back into Josh’s lap. That throw is no different than the shot downfield to Diggs who came up empty after it went through both hands…

Good point. Jones' push might have affected the throw to Diggs, too, especially since it would have been over Jones' head. Posters are assuming it was a gimme vs. a difficult throw. Again, even a touchdown there might not have won the game.

 

If the Bills had won, it would have been a (accurate) story of Allen overcoming an injured defense and an AWOL Diggs and mastering a top defense with discipline. He couldn't have played better. On the other side, the (accurate) narrative would have been Mahomes couldn't even beat a badly depleted defense. Instead, we're going to get seven months of Mahomes the godhead and Allen the eternal bridesmaid. 

[MiracleAtRich1393]

1 hour ago, Matt_In_NH said:

This would be the dumbest draft by any team ever.  

I like it better spiritually than in reality but I would respect the hell out of Beane if he actually did it.

 

My main point is our defense breaks down huge in the playoffs every year no matter how many resources are poured into it. Make Allen unstoppable, be capable of scoring 50 every game

[Ralonzo]

12 hours ago, Bob Jones said:

Just watched part 1. My takeaways: the Bills' play designs suck (Warner even notes this), the Bills' receivers are not that good at separating from their defenders, and KC's secondary played very good/disciplined defense. Just as we've seen throughout the year, some of those plays put multiple receivers very close to each other down the field...not good.

 

Sherfield in particular is bad at running routes, lazy on details, weak at the point of attack blocking, and gets no separation. And for the plays that Warner doesn't cover, when balls hit his hands, he doesn't catch them. Allen was completely nerfed by the OC and the boundary receivers this game, it's miraculous the Bills didn't get blown out 30-3 looking at these films. Swap the QB's and I bet KC wins by 2 scores.

[Scott7975]

6 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

They do but championship teams go down the field in the final minutes to a game winning TD. 

 

Championship teams stop an opposing defense to close the door 

 

McD led Bill team hasn't done either in the playoffs since he's arrived seven years ago. 

 

I mean... Josh did get a TD with 13 seconds left on the clock that should have been a game winner.  The D crapped the bed.  I doubt that ever happens again unless some kind of fluke kick return.

[billybob71]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

You don't need to be Greg Cossell to watch an ALL 22 and see that  Davis, Diggs, Sherf -typically get zero seperation, especially playoff time

Not sure who that is

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

That's the case for keeping McDermott in a nutshell.  You can't win the Super Bowl if you don't punch your playoff lottery ticket.

 

Again, the flaw in that logic is multifold, and you McD apologists won't ever acknowledge it, but just about any coach can get this team to make the playoffs.  

 

I mean seriously, is it actually a sensible argument that given the roster we're had, and the division that we're in, that it's even remotely difficult to make the playoffs?  

 

If anything it should be beyond clear that we've underachieved this season.  Twice, in 2017 and this season we've needed much luck to make the playoffs, and we got it.  The standards, injuries and other stuff, that we cry over as reasons why we lost our lose, we entirely dismiss in examining or wins, like our narrow win over the Chargers who were without a premier QB, a premier WR, and a premier DE.  

 

At the end of the day, here's what McD's Complimentary Football means, it means highlighting his defense, and having our offense adjust for purposes of doing that, or complimenting that.  

 

Why?  Probably because given that McD admittedly doesn't know offense, he wants to be regarded as great, and that's the only way he knows how to do it.  It's short-sighted thinking of that's the case.  It also explains why our offense is treated like a red-headed stepchild.  

 

Again, if we had drafted Allen before McD had gotten here, the odds of McD getting the gig would asymptotically approached zero.  

 

McD now admittedly doesn't know much if anything about offense.  Why on earth anyone supports a head coach like that at this point when we have Allen, a generational talent at QB, is inexplicable.  It makes no sense.  

 

In this piece Dunne puts it succinctly by saying that he's turning Allen into a Tannehill that can run.  

 

It's not even a mystery, it's palpably blatant.  ... for anyone with any objectivity.  Statistically, the "eye test," etc.  

 

Among the increasing proof in the pudding is that it offense is now regressing from season to season for no apparent reason.  We just drafted one of the best set of hands as a TE and made two solid improvements to our OL, which has been a huge problem until this season.  

 

We should never expect our entire OL to get through a season injury free again, ever.  

 

Yet, or offense is worse in PPG than any of Allen's last four seasons.  

 

This isn't difficult to figure out.  Emotions are getting in the way of those that don't.  

 

Wake me when McD hires an OC that would have the potential to replace him.  Won't ever happen!  

 

It's OJTs and yes-men, that's who will continue to be our OCs on his watch.  People that he can control to ensure that our offense supports his defensive strategies in the veiled disguise of "complimentary football." 

 

Sounds great, it works like siht in the playoffs.  But hey, it makes us winners of the regular season every season.  

 

Heaven forbid we actually take a chance and actually try to win a Lombardi.  Better to simply hope that we get hot for four games once we make the playoffs against much better coached teams.  

 

Too many people appear to be so afraid of "not making the playoffs," rather than realizing that we're squandering much greater opportunity.  

 

It really is a bit mind-boggling.  

 

Not that we have any say in the matter anyway, so it's nothing to get at each other over, just sayin'.  

 

 

3 hours ago, MiracleAtRich1393 said:

 

R1: WR

R2: WR

R3: WR

 

All must run 4.3/4.4 minimum with separation skills. There's a buttload this year.

 

Use the day 3 picks for trade ups on day 2, a safety, 1T DT depth, RB depth, and CB depth (Alex Austin type)

 

 

 

Works for me.

 

Expect a CB in the first though.  Remember who's in charge, ultimately.  

 

BTW, you'd also have to actually play those rookies a lot.  Would that happen under this coach.  (Rhetorical). 

 

 

[pennstate10]

2 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

This would be the dumbest draft by any team ever.  

Mike Ditka would like a word. 

[Matt_In_NH]

1 hour ago, MiracleAtRich1393 said:

I like it better spiritually than in reality but I would respect the hell out of Beane if he actually did it.

 

My main point is our defense breaks down huge in the playoffs every year no matter how many resources are poured into it. Make Allen unstoppable, be capable of scoring 50 every game

I understand your point regarding the defense in the playoffs.  However we don't agree with what to do about it.

[pennstate10]

1 hour ago, finn said:

Good point. Jones' push might have affected the throw to Diggs, too, especially since it would have been over Jones' head. Posters are assuming it was a gimme vs. a difficult throw. Again, even a touchdown there might not have won the game.

 

If the Bills had won, it would have been a (accurate) story of Allen overcoming an injured defense and an AWOL Diggs and mastering a top defense with discipline. He couldn't have played better. On the other side, the (accurate) narrative would have been Mahomes couldn't even beat a badly depleted defense. Instead, we're going to get seven months of Mahomes the godhead and Allen the eternal bridesmaid. 

Lost in this entire discussion is the fact that the throw to Diggs would have been substantially easier than the throw to Shakir. 
 

The throw to Diggs, if Allen had taken it, would have occurred about 0.5 sec befor the throw to Shakir.  When there wasn’t 600 lbs of beef in your face. A much easier throw. Josh gambled that he could hold the ball another 0,5 seconds to allow Shakir to uncover and then throw. It was a reasonable gamble given that the reward (TD) for the throw to Shakir was much higher. The safe play was the throw to Diggs. 
 

Given all the variables,  including Diggs dropsies, shaky FG kicker, ability of KC to drive down field, it’s really impossible to say which was the right choice. 

[ddaryl]

13 hours ago, since79 said:

 

 

What our offense lacks is route technique and discipline.   This is why you get guys so close they could be covered with a blanket.  What was quite obvious in the videos is this.  What you also see is the absence of guys making themself available. How many times do you see Allen with the ball and EVERY receiver with their back to him.

 

Yep... That is my take away. I always wondered why when we play teams with decent QBs that way to often they have guys with 2 yard cushions running across the field against our D... I knew something wasn't right but until I saw Kurt Warners all-22 i wasn't sure what the issue really was. Kurt really made it obvious now. Our WRs need to be taught how to run patterns more properly to create this space. 

This should be WR coaching 101 IMO. To be honest I wonder if Kurt wants to coach because although I have seen other pundits show that Allen misses a open guy here and there I've never seen any pundit show us the consistency of what our offense is doing wrong in the passing game. You got to get guys running better routes and ceating more space for other WR's which obviously will make life so much easier for Allen.

The question is can Brady scheme and coach this into our Receivers / RB / TEs, will the Bills brass bring in coaches who know these intricacies

[billieve420]

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

And we lose if you dont convert vs taking a 4 point lead with under 2 minutes left in the game.  100% of the time you take the points and lead, especially when that lead is greater than a FG.  Now the opponent has to go the length of the field and convert a TD in order to take the lead or win the game with under 2 min to go and only 2 timeouts.  And KC was missing their best receiving weapon in Rice too making that harder and was having to rely on receivers who has shown to be unreliable catching the ball including dropping multiple game losing passes this season.

 

Your odds of winning the game are substantially higher taking a 4 point lead vs remaining in a losing position with and putting yourself in a must have 4th down conversion against one of the best defenses in the NFL.  I mean the math on that is not even close given the immense amount of variables involved.  

 

How many of you would be on here saying that Allen made a mistake taking the TD had Allen and Shakir actually connected?  I am gonna guess nobody would be saying he should have not taken the TD and instead gambled on getting one later.  The correct choice is always the choice you would make regardless of its success or failure on the play.  And the mathematically the best odds of winning there are take the 4 point lead vs force a 3rd and 3 while still down 3 and still 25 yards or so away from the endzone.  

 

Again it was the timing of the play call and taking the shot there. If it was on 1st down I have less of a problem with it as KC knew that run was coming and sold out to stop it. The odds of a 30 yd TD being successful is much less than taking the check down. So yes you rather take that TD anyway you can get it. However, they should have been playing both the clock with trying to score at the same time. The timing of both those 2nd and 3rd down calls will always be terrible to me.

 

The percentages go up on converting the closer you get to that first down marker. They should have been been running something to get person underneath free as we were moving the ball dinking and dunking down the field. Diggs wasn't even looked at so my guess he was just playing decoy out there to draw attention. As he was immediately open after the snap and if he had been the primary read should have gotten the ball. People can bring up we couldn't trust him, what if it got tipped at the line, etc.. You can do the same for Shakir and as we saw we didn't convert because Allen couldn't set his feet as Dawkins bumped into him. Knowing how strong of a defense KC had. I am looking to get the ball out quick and not giving them a chance to get to the QB.