If we keep Brady, I’m not so sure wide receiver is going to be a top priority come April.

[Beast]

By top priority I mean a first or second round pick.

 

Glancing over the numbers from when Brady took over, there was obviously more of an emphasis to run the ball (to include letting Allen take off) and using the running backs and tight ends more. I didn’t gather Shakir’s, Kincaid’s or Cook’s receiving stats but, from memory, they seemed to be used a lot more.

 

What I did do was focus on Diggs/Davis and this is what both looked like before and after Brady took over

 

Diggs before per game:

 

7.3 catches, 86.8 yards, 10.2 targets, 0.7 TD

 

After:

 

4.8 catches, 45.0 yards, 8.2 targets, 0.1 TD

 

Davis before:

 

3.3 catches, 49.0 yards, 5.5 targets, 0.5 TD

 

After:

 

1.7 catches, 36.5 yards, 3.7 targets 0.3 TD’s

 

Now, take it as you may, I think the above clearly shows a bit of a change in philosophy and is that coming from Brady or is that what McDermott wants to see? That is quite a change under Brady and makes me believe that is Brady if kept, how much of a priority is wide receiver going to be when it appears the Bills actually went quite a bit away from their top two receivers, as well as needing help along the d-line and probably in the defensive backfield. I’m sure they will select a wide receiver….but at the top of their draft? I’m no longer so sure. (And trying to predict the draft is hard enough for so many reasons)

 

And it worries me a bit that things will remain status quo heading into 2024. 
 

I guess we will see in the coming months.

 

Edited January 23 by Beast

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Worth keeping in mind:

 

We don’t really know any context behind these stats, and we don’t know what a Joe Brady installed offense looks like. 
 

It may not really be a stretch to say that Joe Brady called a Ken Dorsey’s version of a modified Brian DaBoll’s offense. 

Edited January 23 by TheyCallMeAndy

[Beast]

3 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Worth keeping in mind:

 

We don’t really know any context behind these stats, and we don’t know what a Joe Brady installed offense looks like. 

That is very true.

 

And that also worries me a bit. We don’t know what a Brady offense will truly look like.

 

But I think the above numbers show a definite change in philosophy.

 

 

Edited January 23 by Beast

[Warcodered]

Brady did what worked and that was the run game a lot of the time, why because for the longest time we've murdered teams with the intermediate passing game and they don't want to let us do that to them anymore plus Diggs was clearly dealing with something, and we did not have a serious #2 to force the issue.

[Motorin']

Alternatively, the emphasis to run the ball more consistently may have resulted from our personnel. 

 

I was banging the table during Dorsey's losing skid to run more consistently out of heavy sets and lean into play action out of running formations. Not bc it's inherently better, but because our personnel didn't lend itself to consistent success in a pass heavy spread sets (against good teams).

 

We're going to need to be able to do both, better, in the coming season to get over the hump. And that certainly includes revamping the receiver position with speed, route running ability and good hands. 

 

Edited January 23 by Motorin'

[TheyCallMeAndy]

6 minutes ago, Beast said:

That is very true.

 

And that also worries me a bit. We don’t know what a Brady offense will truly look like.

 

But I think the above numbers show a definite change in philosophy.

 

 

No, but we have hints for what his philosophy is from his time at UCLA(?) and Carolina for a season and a half. 

I wonder if Brady wasn’t confident in the installed passing concepts. 

[Beast]

9 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Brady did what worked and that was the run game a lot of the time, why because for the longest time we've murdered teams with the intermediate passing game and they don't want to let us do that to them anymore plus Diggs was clearly dealing with something, and we did not have a serious #2 to force the issue.

 

 

7 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

Alternatively, the emphasis to run the ball more consistently may have resulted from our personal. 

 

I was banging the table during Dorsey's losing skid to run more out of heavy sets and lean into play action out of running for actions. Not bc it's inherently better, but because our personnel didn't lend itself to consistent success in a pass heavy spread sets.

 

We're going to need to be able to do both, better, in the coming season to get over the hump. And that certainly includes revamping the receiver position with speed, route running ability and good hands. 

 

Not disagreeing with either one of you. What I am saying is the ball started going elsewhere. Inside guys and out of the backfield. So, with that in mind, how important will wide receiver be to the Bills this season? They just took Kincaid last year. They are paying Knox handsomely, Shakir has emerged and Diggs will probably be back. 
 

There are holes all over the defensive line. The Bills took players high on the d-line when it sometimes appeared we had no need for it. Now we do have holes. Many. Is McDermott and Beane going to all of a sudden change their philosophy? I think all along a lot of us felt McDermott’s wet dream was ball control offense and win with defense.

 

I think that is what we are seeing start to form.
 

 

Edited January 23 by Beast

[ColoradoBills]

Josh has taken a number of deep shots while Brady has been OC.  The bad news is they haven't connected on many.

The run success sets up the deep passes.

Need a deep threat WR IMO.

[Logic]

Thanks for the post. It makes sense, though, as you say, it's hard to know how much of that was Brady doing it because it's his preference, vs how much he was doing it because he recognized the Bills just didn't have the horses at WR.

McDermott stated at his end-of-season presser today "we need to create more explosive plays. That will be a factor in our player acquisition going forward".

Given that Cook was giving them explosive plays in the run game and they just spent a 1st on Kincaid and have big money locked up in Knox, I can't imagine that comment referring to anything other than adding to the wide receiver room.

Edited January 23 by Logic

[Beast]

1 minute ago, Logic said:

Thanks for the post.

McDermott stated at his end-of-season presser today "we need to create more explosive plays. That will be a factor in our player acquisition going forward".

Given that Cook was giving them explosive plays in the run game and they just spent a 1st on Kincaid and have big money locked up in Knox, I can't imagine that comment referring to anything other than adding to the wide receiver room.

I sure hope so. I didn’t listen to his presser.

[ngbills]

If we keep Brady and move to a run heavy offense then I will not have a good outlook for the season. Our best player is our $50M per QB. He will not survive a season rushing 15 times a game. I am not sold on Cook being a 25-30 game back. Whoever back #2 is likely not someone worthy of 10-15 carries a game. Our D may take a step back next year given the changes expected. This team is best suited to throwing the ball and using Allen's legs as needed in big spots. 

[Warcodered]

1 minute ago, Beast said:

 

 

Not disagreeing with either one of you. What I am saying is the ball started going elsewhere. So, with that in mind, how important will wide receiver be to the Bills this season? They just took Kincaid last year. They are paying Knox handsomely, Shakir has emerged and Diggs will probably be back. 
 

There are holes all over the defensive line. The Bills took players high on the d-line when it sometimes appeared we had no need for it.

Now we do have holes. Many. Is McDermott and Beane going to all of a sudden change their philosophy? I think all along a lot of us felt McDermott’s wet dream was ball control offense and win with defense.

 

I think that is what we are seeing start to form.
 

 

So Gabe is likely out the door that's a massive hole, maybe you can say he was ineffective this year but you don't plan for your #2 WR to be invisible, Shakir is moving on up but we're also likely moving on from guys like Harty and Sherfield. There's a need for WR this offseason and ones that actually contribute to the offense, you have Josh Allen for God's sake.

[LABILLBACKER]

They absolutely don't have a choice. Gabe is as good as gone. Diggs and his contributions are starting to wane. We have to target 2 wrs in the first 4 rounds.  You're not getting more explosive plays with Gabe gone and Stef hitting 30.  The time is now.  Strike while the iron is hot.

[pocoboy]

26 minutes ago, Beast said:

By top priority I mean a first or second round pick.

 

 

 

 

OK, this is purely speculative on my part, but let's give Brady, Allen, & McDermott a little credit here.

 

I suspect they put their heads together and decided 3/4 of Dorsey's playbook was utter tripe. It never had a shot. Total novice-level bunk.

 

So they gutted it, took the portions that would actually be usable, tried to add a few things on the fly, but mostly just went from a severely stunted playbook, because you can't just hand everyone a brand new lexicon and expect perfection in 5 days.

 

I think the situation is 100% up in the air what this offense looks like come August & September. I'd bet they want to find ways to incorporate the things that worked in 2020 & 2021 before Daboll left, but with whatever stamp Brady wants (if he's even there).

[Motorin']

11 minutes ago, Beast said:

 

 

Not disagreeing with either one of you. What I am saying is the ball started going elsewhere. Inside guys and out of the backfield. So, with that in mind, how important will wide receiver be to the Bills this season? They just took Kincaid last year. They are paying Knox handsomely, Shakir has emerged and Diggs will probably be back. 
 

There are holes all over the defensive line. The Bills took players high on the d-line when it sometimes appeared we had no need for it. Now we do have holes. Many. Is McDermott and Beane going to all of a sudden change their philosophy? I think all along a lot of us felt McDermott’s wet dream was ball control offense and win with defense.

 

I think that is what we are seeing start to form.
 

 

 

I think the short passing game was also an extension of personnel. Defenses were locked in on Diggs and playing two safeties over the top. 

 

Without a stable of fast wr's with good hands and good route running ability, the Bills had to pivot to the run and short passing game.

 

Do I think Brady will want more and better receivers like he had with Chase and Justin Jefferson at LSU? Or he'll be content with Sherfield running clear out routes and blocking? 

 

I'm going to guess he'll be just as excited to upgrade the receiver position as most Bills fans.

[Bill from NYC]

Brady will have little to no say. McDermott is calling the shots.

[Brandon]

I strongly suspect that Brady's playcalling was a result of necessity and was largely influenced by the ineffectiveness of Diggs and Davis in the second half of the season. 

 

Look at his LSU offense when he had elite talent out on the perimeter.  That may be more indicative of what he'd prefer.  Of course,  all this also assumes that they keep Brady as their OC. 

[GASabresIUFan]

I watched Brady tear apart the SEC while at LSU using WRs (Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase) at WR with Burrow as the QB.  Those two stars had over 3300 yards receiving on 195 catches in 2019. They also had Edwards-Helaire at RB who ran well and caught over 450 yards out of the backfield (and 1400 yards rushing).

 

It was truly the greatest college offense ever.  Brady simply didn’t have the weapons to execute his offense properly. Diggs is no longer in the same universe as Jefferson and Chase and he was the best of the WR lot.  The only pass catchers Brady trusts are Kincaid and Shakir.  
 

I honestly believe if Brady stays, he’ll lobby for a 1st pick WR with size and speed to make his offense go.  I can also see him wanting a 2nd big WR as another TD threat.  At LSU he used Terrance Marshall as the guy.

Edited January 23 by GASabresIUFan

[dave mcbride]

Just now, Brandon said:

I strongly suspect that Brady's playcalling was a result of necessity and was largely influenced by the ineffectiveness of Diggs and Davis in the second half of the season. 

 

Look at his LSU offense when he had elite talent out on the perimeter.  That may be more indicative of what he'd prefer.  Of course,  all this also assumes that they keep Brady as their OC. 

Exactly.

[ngbills]

People do realize Brady was at LSU one year right? Note even a full year. With possibly one of the most talented football rosters in college football history. I would not place too much weight on connecting LSU and Brady. Brady was well like and an enthusiastic coach that got his players to play. But that was not his offense at LSU.