BADOLBILZ Posted January 24 Posted January 24 (edited) 20 minutes ago, DCOrange said: I definitely think he can be replaced, but I do think people underrate him here, at least as far as being a vertical threat goes. There were only 29 WRs this year that were targeted deep at least 20 times this year. It’s basically every big name WR in the league plus Gabe, Justin Watson, and Rashid Shaheed. Gabe’s catch % on those passes was tied for 13th I believe (again, almost exclusively compared to the other star WRs in the NFL), his PFF grade on these passes was tied for 6th, tied for 6th in TDs, 14th in yards per route run, 4th in contested catch rate (granted the sample size on these are very small across the board), and 15th in passer rating on those targets. Anyway you slice it he was among the best deep threats in the league this year despite it being a relative down year. And I think Diggs and more recently Sherfield showed those downfield targets are not easy to bring in. Diggs was also in that group of 29 and was close to dead last in all those categories. Having said that, 2 rookies did crack that list this year to varying success rates. Zay Flowers wasn’t as good as Gabe but was still pretty good. Jordan Addison made the list but was near the bottom in terms of success. I certainly do not foresee us replacing him via free agency unless we find some serious money under the cushions; none of the cheaper FA options really offer upside as vertical threats. Yeah make no mistake, the Gabe hate is entirely on Brandon Beane. Gabe has two specific skills that he is very good at.......he can make big plays deep and he can block. But in their attempt to allocate as many resources as they could to the defense they allowed their WR corp to become depleted "hoping" that Gabe Davis could be a WR2. That was never going to happen. He just doesn't have a broad enough skill set and that should have been obvious. The NFL is an entertainment business. The saying in show business goes "always leave them wanting to see more of you". Gabe just got overexposed. Ideally he would have stayed in that role he had in his first 2 seasons. Edited January 24 by BADOLBILZ 4 2 Quote
Monty98 Posted January 24 Posted January 24 1 hour ago, DCOrange said: I definitely think he can be replaced, but I do think people underrate him here, at least as far as being a vertical threat goes. There were only 29 WRs this year that were targeted deep at least 20 times this year. It’s basically every big name WR in the league plus Gabe, Justin Watson, and Rashid Shaheed. Gabe’s catch % on those passes was tied for 13th I believe (again, almost exclusively compared to the other star WRs in the NFL), his PFF grade on these passes was tied for 6th, tied for 6th in TDs, 14th in yards per route run, 4th in contested catch rate (granted the sample size on these are very small across the board), and 15th in passer rating on those targets. Anyway you slice it he was among the best deep threats in the league this year despite it being a relative down year. And I think Diggs and more recently Sherfield showed those downfield targets are not easy to bring in. Diggs was also in that group of 29 and was close to dead last in all those categories. Having said that, 2 rookies did crack that list this year to varying success rates. Zay Flowers wasn’t as good as Gabe but was still pretty good. Jordan Addison made the list but was near the bottom in terms of success. I certainly do not foresee us replacing him via free agency unless we find some serious money under the cushions; none of the cheaper FA options really offer upside as vertical threats. I'm not saying he isn't good or that he's overrated. My point is, is he a guy you put faith in signing long term to replace Diggs as a #1? I don't, and I don't think he's a true #1 WR either. He's a good #2 but he's not a great #2 fringe #1. Look at guys we've had, Peerless Price? Great #2 terrible #1 in Atlanta. Stevie Johnson, would have been a much better #2 but was a fringe #1 guy. Diggs has been that clear #1 and Davis was a good #2 to him. I think there's much more enticing options in the draft. I really think all 3 of the Washington guys will be #1s if not the fringe #1 great #2. I think someone will see his size and the games like the 13 second game and pay him more than he's worth. Quote
Billl Posted January 26 Posted January 26 On 1/24/2024 at 10:55 AM, BADOLBILZ said: Yeah make no mistake, the Gabe hate is entirely on Brandon Beane. Gabe has two specific skills that he is very good at.......he can make big plays deep and he can block. But in their attempt to allocate as many resources as they could to the defense they allowed their WR corp to become depleted "hoping" that Gabe Davis could be a WR2. That was never going to happen. He just doesn't have a broad enough skill set and that should have been obvious. The NFL is an entertainment business. The saying in show business goes "always leave them wanting to see more of you". Gabe just got overexposed. Ideally he would have stayed in that role he had in his first 2 seasons. There's a lot of truth to this, but I don't think they expected him to become something more than he is. In fact, he's been much better than his draft position suggested. He's provided lowish WR2 production. In this league, that's probably $50+ million of value over his 4 year career. Meanwhile, he's earned $2 million total. Guys who out-perform their draft position and/or salary are extremely valuable even if they never develop into true difference makers. $48 million of surplus value is enormous in a league that is so salary cap driven. Quote
Mikie2times Posted January 26 Posted January 26 (edited) On 1/24/2024 at 8:35 AM, DCOrange said: I definitely think he can be replaced, but I do think people underrate him here, at least as far as being a vertical threat goes. There were only 29 WRs this year that were targeted deep at least 20 times this year. It’s basically every big name WR in the league plus Gabe, Justin Watson, and Rashid Shaheed. Gabe’s catch % on those passes was tied for 13th I believe (again, almost exclusively compared to the other star WRs in the NFL), his PFF grade on these passes was tied for 6th, tied for 6th in TDs, 14th in yards per route run, 4th in contested catch rate (granted the sample size on these are very small across the board), and 15th in passer rating on those targets. Anyway you slice it he was among the best deep threats in the league this year despite it being a relative down year. And I think Diggs and more recently Sherfield showed those downfield targets are not easy to bring in. Diggs was also in that group of 29 and was close to dead last in all those categories. Having said that, 2 rookies did crack that list this year to varying success rates. Zay Flowers wasn’t as good as Gabe but was still pretty good. Jordan Addison made the list but was near the bottom in terms of success. I certainly do not foresee us replacing him via free agency unless we find some serious money under the cushions; none of the cheaper FA options really offer upside as vertical threats. I agree he is a very solid deep threat. But always having him occupy one of the 11 spots and rarely being utilized kills the offense. It’s like playing with 10 guys. Edited January 26 by Mikie2times 1 Quote
Scott7975 Posted January 26 Posted January 26 On 1/22/2024 at 8:42 PM, JimBob2232 said: We need to let him go - but unlike Edmonds I think we’ll regret this one. He is a good one who will probably shine somewhere. remember we ran Robert woods and zay jones outta here too. Gabe us far better than them. Woods wanted out. Nobody ran him out. Jones still took years just to be a decent guy. Gabe is not better than Woods. 1 Quote
John from Riverside Posted January 26 Posted January 26 52 minutes ago, Scott7975 said: Woods wanted out. Nobody ran him out. Jones still took years just to be a decent guy. Gabe is not better than Woods. I haven’t gone through the whole thread, but I think that the fact that Josh Allen tends to throw interceptions whenever he tries to target gave Davis needs to be considered 1 1 1 Quote
DCOrange Posted January 26 Posted January 26 14 minutes ago, John from Riverside said: I haven’t gone through the whole thread, but I think that the fact that Josh Allen tends to throw interceptions whenever he tries to target gave Davis needs to be considered I think this is mostly as simple as Davis is generally targeted on deep passes and deep passes are more likely to be intercepted than shorter ones. Having said that we’ve obviously seen a few shorter option routes get intercepted too. 1 Quote
DCofNC Posted January 26 Posted January 26 On 1/22/2024 at 12:44 PM, Buffalo_Stampede said: Some team gives him $15 million. I’d bet he gets 12-15, basically MVS type of deal. He’s not bad, he’s just not great. 1 Quote
BigAl2526 Posted January 26 Posted January 26 I expect that he's gone. Buffalo has a couple big receivers that might develop in Shorter and UDFA Tyrel Shaver. They need to draft an outside receiver with some speed though. Any free agents they sign are going to be of the "value" variety given their cap woes. 1 Quote
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