Beane's Offseason - Should he turn the roster over or stay the course?

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

No more tweaking.  Tear it down.

 

I don't think that means a wasted year either.  

 

Our defense will still have Oliver, Rousseau, Milano, Bernard, Douglas, Benford, Johnson.  Just need to add enough to make it a middle of the pack group.

 

On Offense, if we take this tear it down strategy, I'd rather keep Morse.  Bring back this Top 5 OL.  Know you have Shakir, Kincaid, Knox and Cook.  Draft WR's early and often.  Preferably doubling up on Day 1 and Day 2.  

And no more "running it back" BS either.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, Beast said:

Stay the course and retool on the fly. We have some good, young players on this roster. No need for major moves.

 

 

Hilarious.

 

ZERO speed on the edge on offense, and a TON of aged players on the roster

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, Beast said:

You keep Poyer around another year. His physical tools are now average to slightly below average. His football IQ is off the charts. 

 

Yeah don't want to have two new safeties in same year.

 

White will be tougher as can't cut an injured player and zero incentive for him to take an injury settlement that doesn't pay him every $$ owed him.  If no savings then why cut him plus now allowed to?

[margolbe]

I would draft a developmental quarterback.  We saw this year that a number of teams were able to survive with a decent backup.  We don't have one.

 

I would fire the special teams coach and look at other kickers and punters.

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 hour ago, BIGFOOTspaceman said:

Don't know when it is but we might get some insight from Beanes end of year presser....anyone know when that is?

I come from the future. This is a breakdown of what he says.

 

- Don't see us making any splash signings in FA

- Up tight against the cap

- We wish we could bring back and pay everybody

- Gabe Davis has earned the right to test FA. Would love to have him back.

- Got 10 picks. Don't see us moving up in the draft. Need those lower contracts because it's hard when you pay a QB

- Full faith in McDermott and the Bills ability to stay competitive next year.

- I anticipate Diggs/Miller/White/Morse being back

- Draft, develop and re-sign is how we intend to continue.

 

 

Edited January 22 by BuffaloBillyG

[Mango]

I would protect the 2025 cap number as much as I possibly can and use 2024 as a mini-reset. Get kids in the building in 2024 that can take a leap in 2025. No need to try and mortgage the future to try and hold this together with elmers glue. The ship can stay afloat without it, and will be a better version for it if they weather the storm.

[Freddie's Dead]

He has to turn it over, no choice.  We're too far over the cap.

[Aussie Joe]

 

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Beast said:

Stay the course and retool on the fly. We have some good, young players on this roster. No need for major moves.

We gave these older guys more than enough money and opportunities to support Josh. And they didn't.  The time to start Josh's 2nd and final 4-6 year SB window is now. Dump these contracts and go young.

[sven233]

WARNING - FULL LENGTH ARTICLE INCOMING!  HA!

 

 

The thing is, a tear down really doesn't mean you have to take a step back in my opinion.  There are a few bad contracts on this team for sure that would hurt to get out of this season, but if that's the choice you make, it doesn't have to mean a setback because the young talent on team friendly contracts are the ones that are having the best impact on the field.  So, if you wanted to move on from some of these bad contracts and absorb the hits, you can.

 

OFFENSE

 

You are golden at the most important position in football.  And with his contract and talent level, you know he isn't going anywhere for a very long time.  So, you need cap space to absorb the cap hit from cutting a bad contract like Von (if that is something they even want to do), Allen has the contract to make that somewhat possible. 

 

You are fine at RB with Cook.  Draft someone late to team with him for this year.  No need to have a big contract in that room with him as your lead back. 

 

The line is fine.  Mitch is the biggest question mark.  Do you want to save some money by dumping his contract?  Does he want to play another year?  Would he take a massive pay cut to chase a ring one more time?  You have Bates that can hold down the fort for this season if necessary, but you can usually get the best, or one of the best centers in the draft in the 3rd round if you want to go really cheap there and not have a huge talent drop off.  It's a big asset to use on a center, but if you pick the right guy, you will have your center for the next decade.  Dawkins had his best year this season.  You want to clear some space, redo his contract.  No problem adding a couple years and some new money for that guy.  The rest of the line is fine and doesn't break the bank.

 

WR is the biggest question mark right now.  Where is Diggs at with this team?  If he's still all in with this team and wants to be here, then he's your #2 going forward for a couple years.  You have Shakir on a bargain deal as your #3/slot.  If this is the case, we use our first round pick on the most talented, biggest fast guy we can and hope to hit on a new #1 in a very talented WR draft.  Then you add another one later in the draft as well and bring in a vet that still has something left in the tank for a reasonable price.  This is probably ideal, but you can't get less production out of our WR corps overall than we did this season.  Davis was a massive disappointment and shouldn't be hard to replace with the first rounder we draft.  And we got nothing out of the other guys on this team......nothing.  So, you can either bring in some FAs that won't break the bank or just draft a couple more guys and you will easily replace the production we did receive on this team for cheap.  Now, if Diggs wants out, or we want to move on from him this season, that is where this becomes a bit of an issue.  Because while I believe he is not the #1 we need anymore, I firmly believe he can be the dominant #2 we have lacked since he got here in the first place.  Beane messed up by never getting him the true secondary option we needed.  They kept waiting for Davis to turn into that and he never did.  Now they need a new superstar.  

 

So, in the grand scheme of things, because you have Allen as your QB and a solid line in front of him, it means you don't have to necessarily take a step back on offense by redoing things.  You can get better and still save money.  A lot will come down to where Diggs' head is at right now.

 

DEFENSE

 

Outside of Von's contract, we are lucky that our most important contributors are young guys under fine contracts.  Yesterday's performance aside, Oliver was a beast this season and should be a dominant DT for us for several years to come.  We still have Groot who I expect to take one more step next season.  There are no other DTs under contact heading into next season, so that is going to offer a fresh start as it is.  I would love to have Jones back, but you have to be careful with that contract.  His age and injury history makes me hesitant to do too much there, but I would love it if they could find something fair for both sides for a couple years.  Honestly outside of Oliver and Jones, what did we really get out of anyone else this season anyway?  The rest can go and we can replace the depth production we got with cheaper and younger options and probably not see that much of a difference in what we got out of guys like Phillips, Settle, Ford, etc.  Floyd and AJ were great early in the season and then vanished down the stretch.  AJ does this every season.  He shows up, makes a few amazing plays in September and October and then you never hear from him again.  Not sure you will have much of a step down for a cheaper price than you will see him get on the open market.  Floyd was great for most of the season, but obviously age or injury or whatever caught up with him down the stretch.  And we all know he was signed off the street late in FA as it was.  There will always be guys out there like that.  Do it again with someone else this season.  The real question is what they want to do with Von.  Are they confident he will return to form next season?  If they are and he does, great.  If they aren't and they want to bit the bullet and eat the dead cap, they obviously can replace his current production with anyone off the street for pennies on the dollar.  But make not mistake about is, DE is the biggest problem on this team and has been for years now.  We got unlucky with Von's injury for sure.  He was everything we hoped he would be for us pre-injury and now, if he doesn't return to form, his contract is an anchor for sure. The line is the toughest area to fix going into next season.

 

At LB, we are in a good spot with the guys we have if Milano comes back healthy.  The depth can be replaced and supplemented without too much work and money.

 

We are still good at CB as well.  Douglas was a great find and will start next season at a reasonable price no matter what.  Benford is there and he had a really great year.  If he starts next season next to Douglas, we will be just fine.  Those 2 with Johnson in the slot is very solid.  Tre is the wild card in this.  His contract and injury history screams to cut him.  But man, I feel how hard that must be on the organization.  Would Tre be open to reworking his deal so he won't be cut and come back and compete for a spot?  I don't know, but I would love to see it.  But his injury history is tough.  I can't see anyone paying him big money on the market without him proving he can still play and stay healthy.  His best bet may be to redo that contract and prove those things here in a system he has excelled in for years.  We'll see what happens there.  And then of course you have Elam......  Ugh.  Him not being the player we were hoping for as first round pick really hurts.  Do you hope he comes back and he's ready to compete?  Do you explore trade options to try and reinforce another position?  That's a tough one.  But overall, we are fine at CB at the top.

 

Then of course we have the Safety position.  The one group we haven't had to really question for the last 7 years.  As much as it hurts to do it on a personal level, it's time to start completely fresh back there.  The money is too big for the production you are going to get going forward with those guys.  So, draft your replacements.  Heck, find the next duo in FA to come in on team friendly deals like you did with them years ago.  The thing is, if there is one place on the roster that this coaching staff gets the most out of, it's the secondary.  You don't necessarily have to get worse there by putting fresh legs back there.  In fact, maybe.....just maybe, you could get better with some more athleticism. 

 

The thing is, if you have a defensive minded coach, you should see a benefit to that with scheme.  You should be able to hide a weakness or two.  If not, then your defensive minded head coach shouldn't be your head coach.  But in the end, after this extremely long and drawn out post, that I don't believe that tearing it down necessarily means not being able to compete for a Super Bowl.  In fact, there are several spots you could actually get better by going younger and cheaper.  As bad as the cap situation is, and as even worse as it could get by cutting some bad contracts, I don't think that means you have to necessarily take a step back and not compete for a division or Super Bowl.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, margolbe said:

I would draft a developmental quarterback.  We saw this year that a number of teams were able to survive with a decent backup.  We don't have one.

 

I would fire the special teams coach and look at other kickers and punters.

 

Developing him for what??  To leave in 4 years or at the first chance he gets?  I'd be really pissed if I were drafted by the Bills as a QB as know there is no chance I'm ever going to play unless Allen gets hurt.  In many other cases, Raiders, Pats, etc, the team doesn't have an established #1 so switching to the rookie often happens so he'll get chances to show what he can or can't do, but not in a handful of places like Buffalo

 

And how would say a 5th or 6th round rookie who never played in an actual real NFL game better than a guy who's been around the block a few times, wasn't able to hack it as a starter, but even then is miles ahead of a rookie.

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Sure.  I guess my question is, how much?  

Just using Von as an example.  Do you keep him or bite the bullet and move on?

 

The Bills are going to have to do a reboot at some point.  The question is do they try and clean the cap in one year and take the hit or do they try and do it piece by piece and make it take longer?

[khlax3]

I think we have the ability to get younger, cheaper and also improve. I have only gone through offense so far but I was able to add some playmakers on offense, leave 6 draft picks for defense including 1st and 2nd rounders and cut our over the cap amount to about 18 million over which we can easily free up more than that on the defensive side through restructures, extensions, cuts. 

 

Cap savings:

Extend Dawkins (7 million)

Release Harty (5 Million)

Release Hines (4 Million)

Cut Gilliam (1.9 million)

Restructure Allen (23 million)

Total cap savings (40.9 million)

 

Additions/Re-signings:

    - Edwards (2 million)

    - Ty Johnson (1.5 million)

    - Quentin Morris (1 million)

    - Tee Higgins (9 million year 1- diggs gone once number increases)

     - Terrance Marshall JR- (1.5 million trade 7th rounder. He hasn’t been good in nfl but was good with Brady at LSU)

      -Carson Steele RB UCLA round 5 (1 million)

       -Ricky Pearsall WR Florida Round 3 (1 million)

       - Cam ward QB Wash st round 5 (1 million)

 

Net cap savings: 22.9 million

 

Roster:

 

QB: Josh Allen, Cam Ward

RB: James Cook, Ty Johnson, Carson Steele

TE: Kincaid, Knox, Morris

WR: Diggs, Higgins, Shakir, Pearsall, Marshall JR, (Isabella, shorter, or hamler)

OL: Dawkins, McGovern, Morse, Torrence, Brown,Edwards, Bates, Anderson, Van Demark, Doyle

 

This would make the offense younger and cheaper. Besides Diggs, Morse, and Dawkins everyone else is under the age of 27. 
 

note: I originally created a post for this but since deleted it since it fits in with this conversation. 

Edited January 22 by khlax3

[jkeerie]

3 hours ago, SCBills said:

No more tweaking.  Tear it down.

 

I don't think that means a wasted year either.  

 

Our defense will still have Oliver, Rousseau, Milano, Bernard, Douglas, Benford, Johnson.  Just need to add enough to make it a middle of the pack group.

 

On Offense, if we take this tear it down strategy, I'd rather keep Morse.  Bring back this Top 5 OL.  Know you have Shakir, Kincaid, Knox and Cook.  Draft WR's early and often.  Preferably doubling up on Day 1 and Day 2.  

This makes sense.  If anything, last night's game showed that the Bills can go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs with a backup defense...if we can get more skill players in the receiver position.  Josh fell short in this game because he had no one to throw to other than Kinkaid and Shakir.  Diggs made a few plays but was largely unreliable.  I would target WR, DT, and S early in the draft.  It would be nice if Shorter can develop at WR.  I definitely would re-sign Ty Johnson as the number two RB.  On defense, I would also like to keep DaQuon and I agree on Morse as I believe he is a steadying force on the oline.

[BearNorth]

4 hours ago, Beast said:

You keep Poyer around another year. His physical tools are now average to slightly below average. His football IQ is off the charts. 

Must have had a brain fart on the first Kelce TD then.

[harmonkillebrew]

Stay the course.

We were decimated with injuries on D and were still a top 5 team this year.  Stay a little healthier and retool a bit and, thanks mostly to Josh, we still compete and maybe the ball bounces our way. Plus, Josh only has a few more years of carrying the team this way before he needs a better supporting cast. Need to take advantage and compete every year.

 

The major contracts/players we clean out or restructure are:

Offense: Gabe, Knox, Sheffield, Harty. I wouldn't touch the Oline. Diggs is still too valuable, but should move into a #2 role.

Defense: Hyde, White. I think we try to keep Jones and Epenesa. Miller probably has one more year to get back to his old self. Maybe Floyd re-signs as well.

 

[Beast]

25 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Must have had a brain fart on the first Kelce TD then.

Tell us what coverage was called.

[OZBILLS]

As usual, he'll bring in glass journeymen who are not built for it.

 

 

[BearNorth]

14 minutes ago, Beast said:

Tell us what coverage was called.

What ever it was, Kelce should NEVER be that wide open.

[Beast]

Just now, BearNorth said:

What ever it was, Kelce should NEVER be that wide open.

Agreed….but I’m not quite sure how that is automatically Poyer’s fault when this team routinely does NOT let pass catchers get behind them.