Bills Draft Rd 1 - Pick 28

[L Ron Burgundy]

4 hours ago, UKBillFan said:

Trade down for a couple more round two picks.

Unfortunately this is probably needed. We need a small rebuild.  Our defense is bad.  Idc about regular season stats one bit.  They suck when it matters.

[Monty98]

10 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

James Williams can’t cover as a safety in college and is known as a big hitter but fails to wrap on tackles by lowering his shoulder too much. Guys like him are dinosaurs in the NFL today . Also throw in the character issues he has and you have a guy I wouldn’t take until round 5.  Williams gets his love from his HS ranking and being a 5 star out of HS. Kitchens covered a lot of his flaws up imo

I'm intrigued to know what his "character issues"are as I've been following him since he arrived at UM. Williams flashes his zone coverage on plays but under Diaz he was utilized as a head hunter. Under Cristobal he was hurt his first year with a torn labrum and that whole defense was terrible under that DC (name is escaping me), this year under Guidry he was utilized best with his skill set as he was used as a blitzer and cover guy. He had probably his best year this year and you could see the improvement as the season went on. He's an energy guy and he's constantly looking to make a play or big hit to get the team or crowd into it.

[schoolhouserock]

1 hour ago, The Jokeman said:

This is a heavy draft on WRs, trading up feels foolish see Sammy Watkins 2.0 Toss in think we need as many picks as possible with so many pending UFAs will have a lot of holes to fill. Depending how UFA turns out I'd think a guy like Troy Franklin could be there for picking at number 28 and fits our need for speed. 

I don’t disagree. I think it is Beane’s MO to jump up a few spots for the player(s) his team has identified. 
 

A LOT of WRs will be drafted in round 1 this year. Even though it is deep, it may still be required to jump up.

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

This draft is too deep at WR, and we have too many other needs, to make a double WR pick in the 2nd.

 

It would be a re-do of the Boogie Basham mistake all over again.

 

Plus, there arent that many balls to go around to justify that value of taking our 5th receiving option in the 2nd round.

 

We should be able to take a WR in the 1st and another in the 4th-6th and still score some top talent while plugging our other holes with guys who can contribute right away as well.

One thought about this: We need to consider the possibility of Diggs being over the hill. That’s a LOT of targets up for grabs.

[Capco]

1 hour ago, The Jokeman said:

Depending how UFA turns out I'd think a guy like Troy Franklin could be there for picking at number 28 and fits our need for speed. 

Reading your mention of UFA reminds me of RFA.

Are there any RFA WRs worth the 28th (and possibly the 94th?) pick(s) that we could offer a contract to that another team couldn't match?  It could be a clever way to turn a late 1st into something less risky and proven, but idk if there's anyone worth it.

[schoolhouserock]

54 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

For everyone wanting a WR - statistics say round # 1 picks are a coin flip relative to productivity in year #1.  

Can you back this up with data? My hypothesis is that early round receivers are producing more and are doing it more quickly than in years past.

[BuffaloBill]

4 minutes ago, schoolhouserock said:

Can you back this up with data? My hypothesis is that early round receivers are producing more and are doing it more quickly than in years past.

 

% OF WR HIT BENCHMARKS AT LEAST ONCE IN THEIR CAREERS

 

Draft Range No 1,000-yd seasons one 1,000-yd season 2+ 1,000-yd seasons 3+ 1,000-yd seasons 8-TD season 16-TD season

1st rd pick 51% 19% 30% 23% 52% 16%

Top-10 pick 50% 18% 32% 29% 57% 18%

So, only 49% of first-round wide receivers have had a 1,000-yd season. On top of that, only 30% have had 2 or more. It’s not exactly like I qualify a two-time thousand-yarder as a superstar. That’s a pretty low bar for what is supposed to be elite talent. There are just so many misses that it’s hard to consider anything here as set in stone. Here’s another way to put it: there have been 15 drafts since 2000 with multiple wide receivers taken in the first round. Only twice have all the first-round receivers hit 1,000 yards at some point in their career. In twelve of those years, multiple receivers failed that test. 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

4 minutes ago, schoolhouserock said:

Can you back this up with data? My hypothesis is that early round receivers are producing more and are doing it more quickly than in years past.

 

Look up the drafts on Wikipedia and see the WRs selected recently in rounds 1 and 2.

 

If a WR is taken top 10 (certainly top 5) then they usually produce well right away. But once you get into that #15-#50 range, it's far more hit or miss (with a lot of misses).

 

For every star WR you remember, there are a couple picked right after him that are like "oh yeah, who is that guy again?"

 

 

 

 

Edited January 22 by DrDawkinstein

[BCAS Baritone]

I'd love the Bills to take a WR in round 1, but don't know the college players myself so wouldn't hazard a guess on who we should or shouldn't take.  If a WR is there that we have ranked at least in top 35 overall I'd have to consider him, but don't want to reach, especially if a guy we have ranked in top 20 fell to us even if at a different position.

 

Here is Bucky Brooks mock draft - he has us taking Cooper DeJean at 28 (DB from Iowa)

https://www.nfl.com/news/bucky-brooks-2024-nfl-mock-draft-1-0

 

Here are the pass catchers he mocks in the first round

4 - WR Marvin Harrison Jr to Arizona

5 - TE Brock Bowers to LA Chargers

6 - WR Rome Odunze to NY Giants

15 - WR Malik Nabers to Indianapolis

18 - WR Brian Thomas Jr to Concinnati

26 - WR Keon Coleman to Tampa Bay

 

Edited January 22 by BCAS Baritone

[BuffaloBill]

Just now, BuffaloBill said:

 

% OF WR HIT BENCHMARKS AT LEAST ONCE IN THEIR CAREERS (starts with 2002 draft)

 

Draft Range No 1,000-yd seasons one 1,000-yd season 2+ 1,000-yd seasons 3+ 1,000-yd seasons 8-TD season 16-TD season

1st rd pick 51% 19% 30% 23% 52% 16%

Top-10 pick 50% 18% 32% 29% 57% 18%

So, only 49% of first-round wide receivers have had a 1,000-yd season. On top of that, only 30% have had 2 or more. It’s not exactly like I qualify a two-time thousand-yarder as a superstar. That’s a pretty low bar for what is supposed to be elite talent. There are just so many misses that it’s hard to consider anything here as set in stone. Here’s another way to put it: there have been 15 drafts since 2000 with multiple wide receivers taken in the first round. Only twice have all the first-round receivers hit 1,000 yards at some point in their career. In twelve of those years, multiple receivers failed that test. 

 

 

For some set of reasons it is hard to translate college success to NFL success at the WR position.  If in round one only 30% have two + 1,000 yard seasons it does not look like a good gamble.  

[DrDawkinstein]

3 minutes ago, BCAS Baritone said:

I'd love the Bills to take a WR in round 1, but don't know the college players myself so wouldn't hazard a guess on who we should or shouldn't take.  If a WR is there that we have ranked at least in top 35 overall I'd have to consider him, but don't want to reach, especially if a guy we have ranked in top 20 fell to us even if at a different position.

 

Here is Bucky Brooks mock draft - he has us taking Cooper DeJean at 28 (DB from Iowa)

https://www.nfl.com/news/bucky-brooks-2024-nfl-mock-draft-1-0

 

Here are the pass catchers he mocks in the first round

4 - WR Marvin Harrison Jr to Arizona

5 - TE Brock Bowers to LA Chargers

6 - WR Rome Odunze to NY Giants

15 - WR Malik Nabers to Indianapolis

18 - WR Brian Thomas Jr to Concinnati

26 - WR Keon Coleman to Tampa Bay

 

 

If all of those WRs go before our pick, and Cooper DeJean is sitting there, then DeJean is absolutely our best pick. And I dont want a DB in the 1st. But reality is reality.

 

Go DeJean and then WRs in the 2nd and 4th.

[Solomon Grundy]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Xavier Legette, Wide Receiver, South Carolina

 

 

But I'd definitely live with this outcome too. 

You know how I ❤❤Xavier Legette, but after watching that game last night and seeing Dodson getting abused in the run game time after time I think I'm going to rethink this pick and maybe go with Edgerrin Cooper. I know we'll be getting Bernard/Milano back, but if another injury happens to ANY ONE of them two I DO NOT want to see Dodson replace them. This is a very deep receiving class and Moose Muhammed has raised a lot of interest in me. The guy doesn't seem to drop many passes and has NFL pedigree

[BUFFALOTONE]

Trade up and take Harrison...both beane and Mcd are out of a job next year if they dont win the super bowl. Might as well go down in flames. 

[frostbitmic]

They went Offense in the first round last year, so I'm guessing a DE/Edge.

[Warcodered]

6 hours ago, damj said:

Not a WR

Beane watched that game and the ball bouncing off the hands of those WRs on those deep shots. Not a chance in hell he isn't addressing this.

[Chicken Boo]

6 hours ago, iccrewman112 said:

Troy Franklin - WR from Oregon is where my mind goes currently. I think there is a  strong chance he is there at 28. 

 

That's my guy all the way.  

 

I will be posting this link frequently leading up to the draft

 

 

 

Franklin can work the entire field.  Here is your eventual Diggs replacement.  

 

 

Edited January 22 by Chicken Boo

[BillsFan2313]

Trade up for Odunze. Even if it takes giving up next years first. Josh Allen needs help right now and the 2025 cap is in way better position. 

 

 

Edit: The reason I say Odunze and not Harrison or Nabers is because they are both gone top 10, which will be difficult to get into. 

Edited January 22 by BillsFan2313

[Chicken Boo]

2 hours ago, Goin Breakdown said:

It's going to be a safety

 

If Cooper DeJean is there, McDermott will sprint to the podium.

[Warcodered]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Xavier Legette, Wide Receiver, South Carolina

 

 

But I'd definitely live with this outcome too. 

I like his number. Also damn he looks good and plays physical.

[BillsFan130]

6 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

Pick 28 and Dawson Knox for pick 26 

If we include Knox in the trade, that may bump us down to the 2nd round..

[starrymessenger]

7 hours ago, iccrewman112 said:

Troy Franklin - WR from Oregon is where my mind goes currently. I think there is a  strong chance he is there at 28. 

Yes he may be there at 28. Thing is he would be a rook and therefore in need of development. I would add 2 WRs to the starting lineup but I'd like to get a vet as well as a rook. Darnell Mooney is an UFA. Ran a 4.38. Gets separation all day. Had a down 2023 with nagging injury and an offence that really couldn't make the best of his talent in the passing game. Sure give me Tee Higgins but I don't think we have the space for that. Mooney is a comparable type receiver to Franklin and you can probably sign him to an incentive laden affordable deal. Hes 26 yrs old. Then I'd draft another in the first. The top five guys are likely gone by 28 but you might have a shot at Xavier Leggett, maybe even with a small move up the board. If he's there I'd run to the podium. 

1 hour ago, BUFFALOTONE said:

Trade up and take Harrison...both beane and Mcd are out of a job next year if they dont win the super bowl. Might as well go down in flames. 

You'd prolly have to do a Mike Ditke/Ricky Williams to get him.

Edited January 22 by starrymessenger