The Three Plays that Cost us the Game

[JerseyBills]

16 play drive over 6 minutes and netted 0 points,  brutal... Great drive before the 2 min warning 

[Ralonzo]

5 hours ago, Wraith said:

 

Gotta give Brady from credit for somehow matching the Bills least threatening receiver in Ty Johnson on their best cover man Sneed.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, SCBills said:

 

I agree and disagree.

 

Allen clearly saw that Shakir would clear the defenders and be open pre-snap.  He locked in on the killshot.

 

.....except it wasn't a killshot.  Even if Dawkins doesn't get dog-walked by Jones to hit Allen, Mahomes gets the ball back, down 4, with a couple minutes and two timeouts against our joke of a defense. 

 

As much as I know it's difficult to blame Josh for making a bad decision on what would normally be the right read in any other cirucmstance... this wasn't that circumstance.

 

If he foregoes the TD shot and hits Diggs for a first down, like was the entire vibe of that drive... kill the clock and score with little to no time left, we'd be set up to potentially score with KC getting the ball back with under a minute and no timeouts, down 4 needing a TD.  If we played it perfectly, we could've gone up with less than 15 seconds.  

 

It's really hard to criticize him for this decision, but given the gameflow.. I hate to say.. I think it's warranted.

 

It wasn't a bad decision.  It just wasn't the right decision. 

 

I think this is the most reasonable post so far here.

[Pete]

Not running play action on second and short

[BillsfaninCT]

51 minutes ago, Brandon said:

 

Agreed,  and if you pass up a fairly high percentage chance at the TD and a 4 point lead,  there are no guarantees that you will get another opportunity.   You don't have the luxury of passing that up late in a game playing from behind. 

 

I have zero issue with Allen's decision.  

it's not a luxury to pass it up, it's understanding how to win the game which requires understanding that odds are better with running the clock out and kicking a 25yrd FG to O.T. then you're down to a coin toss to get the ball first in o.t. and then win on the 2nd score.... but that's just bad coaching.... relying on the defense to make a stop is one of, if not the least likely scenarios.

 

any scenario that leaves 5 seconds, maybe 10 on the clock is after the TD or FG is losing and failing to understand high percentages because the defense doing something is every time less likely than giving zero time back.  in that case the best choice is to rely on the coin flip in o.t. to be the 1st one to have a 2nd score option

 

saying a defensive stop is the high percentage play is wrong.

Edited January 22 by BillsfaninCT

[WeckMonster]

With our Swiss cheese D and a terrible kicker (vs their great kicker), the only hope of winning was to score a TD in regulation and pray the D keeps them out of the end zone.

 

You take the TD when it’s there. Too many things can blow up inside 2 mins (penalty, tipped pass, D guesses right, etc).

 

Throwing to wide open Shakir was the right play. If Dawkins holds another half second it’s a TD. It’s Josh’s blind side and it happened at the last second. No way he should’ve passed up a sure TD in his mind.

[JerseyBills]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

I think this is the most reasonable post so far here.

How? the prior drive we held the Chiefs to 2-3 yards in 6 plays, besides a 5 yard questionable penalty. 

It's not possible we shut them down again?? 

[skibum]

It wasn't this play or that play. The Chiefs were just consistently better in every phase of the game, all night long.

[JohnNord]

20 hours ago, Freak-O said:

Cook dropped a TD as well. Crucial. The non pass to Diggs at the end was the worst one. Get a new set of downs, milk the clock and an excellent opportunity to score. I don’t get why Josh went for a TD there. Too much time left on the clock.

The Cook drop didn’t end up meaning anything considering that Shakir caught the TD two plays later.  

51 minutes ago, skibum said:

It wasn't this play or that play. The Chiefs were just consistently better in every phase of the game, all night long.

And yet Buffalo was one play away from scoring the go ahead TD

[Roundybout]

 

[vanislebills44]

klein on kelce ws pathetic...

[Brand J]

21 hours ago, Livinginthepast said:

 

3. Bass lost his mojo a while ago. And once a kicker does that, it’s over. It’s very similar to Norwood. Baltimore and KC dont have that problem.

Very true. I don’t know any kicker who went from having the yips, to being one of the best in the league. Once one goes through that, it’s over. Guaranteed to crop up again at some point in the future. Kicker is an isolating job, I wouldn’t want it. 

[Livinginthepast]

4 minutes ago, Brand J said:

Very true. I don’t know any kicker who went from having the yips, to being one of the best in the league. Once one goes through that, it’s over. Guaranteed to crop up again at some point in the future. Kicker is an isolating job, I wouldn’t want it. 

The best example I can think of is Mike Vanderjagt. The most accurate in the NFL up to the early 2000s then he just lost it with kicks like this:

 

 

[JoshAllin]

I don't think anyone's blaming Josh for not hitting Diggs on that last play. I think the blame goes more to Brady for making that play call with Shakir most likely the first read target for the play after trying to milk the clock as low as possible the whole game. Josh just doing what was called upon him which was wide open.  1st play of that drive shoulda been a Josh run though, just poor over all play calling those final 3 plays

[Billever76]

21 hours ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

Taking multiple deep shots and bypassing chain moving completions is on Josh 

Sorry but you take the wide open TD at that point and every other qb is gonna make that same decision..say allen tries to hit Diggs and diggs drops it or the pass is batted at the line...then everyone would be screaming how allen missed a wide open shakir for the Touchdown..there is no guarantee Diggs catching that pass gets us into the endzone..especially how tight kc defense gets in the redzone...as far as anyone knew that was the Kill shot and shakir was wide open...Dawkins just got blown up and pushed back into allen affecting the pass

[Best Williams Available]

15 minutes ago, motorj said:

I don't think anyone's blaming Josh for not hitting Diggs on that last play. I think the blame goes more to Brady for making that play call with Shakir most likely the first read target for the play after trying to milk the clock as low as possible the whole game. Josh just doing what was called upon him which was wide open.  1st play of that drive shoulda been a Josh run though, just poor over all play calling those final 3 plays

Sounds like Josh changed into this play based on the pre-snap look as they got one they liked, took the opportunity. If true it this becomes lack of execution Dawkins/Allen vs Allen not seeing a guy or Brady calling wrong play.

[Peter]

1 hour ago, Roundybout said:

 

 

Thanks for posting. 

 

That explains that. 

 

Not Josh’s fault.

[2003Contenders]

IMHO the absolute worst play of the game was one that will likely be forgotten in the grand scheme of things -- but changed the trajectory of a game where both defenses were having trouble stopping both offenses. Ironically NEITHER team would score again after this play.

 

That play came on the 1st offensive drive of the 4th quarter, right after the Chiefs had just taken a 27-24 lead. On first down, Josh takes it 8 yards to set up 2nd and 2. That is a great position to be in for the offense. Either you run a high percentage play to get the 1st down -- or you run play-action to try for a big play and even if you don't convert it, you come back with a favorable 3rd and short. What do they do instead? They call a draw to Cook from shotgun -- and he gets blown up in the backfield for a 3 yard loss. Now, instead of a 1st down or 3rd and short it is 3rd and 5, which is no longer a gimme, and the next play results in a batted pass. The next play after that, of course was the failed punt attempt.

 

The Bills, of course, get lucky and get the ball back after the Hartman fumble. So what is the first play called as the Bills try to regain momentum? You guessed it, another draw to Cook from shotgun, resulting in a 4-yard loss. After a short screen to Shakir, the 3rd down-play was the deep shot to Sherfield that he dropped. So instead of seizing the momentum here, they go three-and-out and punt the ball away.

 

[BillsMontreal]

On 1/21/2024 at 10:09 PM, VaMilBill said:

Diggs dropping that bomb. We end of punting in that drive. No points scored. We probably (maybe?) get at least three there if caught. 
 

This is the one that kills me the most. Josh missing the crossing route to Diggs there on the last drive on 2nd and 9. If caught, Diggs definitely gets a first and probably goes down around the 10. It’s plays like these that made a Brady great cause he would see it, take the easy, high percentage, throw and keep the chains moving and the clock ticking. I honestly think at this point Josh will never get us over the hump because of either his inability to see plays like that or unwillingness to take the easy dump off even at crunch time. 
 

Bass missing the FG at the end. Statistically Bass has been one of the worst kickers this season. I’ve been harping about it since the beginning of December. McD simply never trusted him the second half of the season. Last week was a giant flashing sign saying “don’t trust bass!” that McD didn’t heed. Even his XPs tonight were barely eeking in between the uprights. Now I understand if we make that FG, the chiefs still have a lot of time and two TOs, but missing it guaranteed we would lose. 

 

I understand, but a KC fan could write something like that:

 

The-three-play-that-almost-cost-us-the-game

 

-Mahomes missed and open receiver in the endzone two times

-Hartman fumble at the one yard

-Mcduffie missed a pick 6 (or we should recover Allen's fumble).

 

At the end, both team made some mistakes.

I dont talk about the refs that much and it's a good sigh.

Our gameplan was really good and it worked really well.

Our defense let KC scored at will...but our offense managed to be on the field and eat clock.

 

We were at the line of 30 in their zone with the ball at the 2 minuts warning.

We were exactly where we could dream we could be at this point of the game.

It was a 2 and 9.

They blew it.

 

It's coaching. If it is clear for the HC in those kind of situation, it will be clear for the players.
It wasnt. They seems to be lost after the 2 minuts warning break.

 

We cant change the past, but it should be clear for the players: it's a 2 and 9 and you have 3 plays to win that first down.

Go for it. Go win that 9 yards.

 

Like i said, it wasnt clear at all and we blew it.

 

[pocoboy]

14 hours ago, Roundybout said:

 

 

Shame that Allen didn't drift a tad to his right on the dropback. Honestly if his read the entire time is Shakir on the post, shading to your right opens the angle even more for the throw - especially if Allen recognized their most dangerous rusher was lined up to that side...

 

Types of things I worry Dorsey and Brady don't emphasize in practice that maybe Daboll did.

Edited January 23 by pocoboy