Josh Allen: The Correct Choice for NFL MVP

[Chaos]

3 hours ago, DCOrange said:

Baltimore's offense averages roughly 15 fewer points per game with Huntley at the helm vs. Lamar and Baltimore's record with Huntley as the main guy is 4-8 (including the playoff loss) vs. their record with Lamar being 59-24. They are a ton worse with Huntley as the QB. Stumbling into the playoffs with him playing the last couple games does not mean it's not a huge downgrade.

Imagine the Bills chances without Josh.  

[BananaB]

6 minutes ago, folz said:

 

My post was in response to someone who said Lamar crushed playoff teams (as his argument for why Lamar over Josh for MVP). So, that is why I pointed out their records vs. playoff teams, to show that Lamar doesn't have that as something over Josh. Josh did very well (actually better) against playoff teams---even if it's a team stat really.

 

Of course, losing to bad teams does not look good. But, as the OP's video pointed out (we are talking for individual MVP, not team here), all but the Jets opening day loss, Josh put the team ahead in the 4th quarter, but the defense was unable to stop the opposing team from scoring and taking the game. So, you can't really pin those losses on Josh from an individual standpoint. And Josh never blew a game in the 4th quarter with a turnover and has the lowest negative/bad play impact of any QB in the league (despite the turnovers).

 

And of course, wins and losses are a team stat. But, why do the Lamar supporters get to hold up his team's record as a reason he should be MVP (when his defense carried many of those wins), but with Josh, if I bring up wins against playoff teams, all of a sudden wins are a team stat and can't be used in Josh's defense? Again, are two more regular season wins for Jackson (and his defense) the deciding factor here? If wins are a team stat, then those two wins more than Josh shouldn't be the deciding factor, right?

 

As far as consistency, I will grant you that Baltimore as a team was more consistent than the Bills as a team this year. But Lamar?

 

Jackson had 3 games with 0 TDs (rushing or passing), and 5 games with only 1 TD (rush or pass). So, 8 games with 1 or 0 TDs. That's almost half the season. Are those MVP worthy stats?

Lamar had 7 games with fewer than 200 yards passing.

[To include rushing]

Lamar had 5 games under 250 yards from scrimmage

Lamar had 10 games under 300 yards from scrimmage

 

Josh had 1 game with only one TD (he did not have any zero TD games).

Josh had 4 games with fewer than 200 yards passing.

[Below are same number of games as Lamar]

Josh had 5 games under 250 yards from scrimmage.

Josh had 10 games with under 300 yards from scrimmage.

 

People also bring up that the Ravens were blowing people out, so the Ravens took their foot off the gas in those games leading to lower stats for Lamar.

Well, Baltimore had 9 blowout wins (2 TDs or more).

The Bills, despite their inconsistency, had 6 blowout wins.

 

So, that's only maybe 3-5 quarters of football all year more than Josh that Lamar "didn't need to do much."

 

Keep them coming fellas. Convince me where Lamar's season was far superior.

 

I watched the Ravens 3 times this year, all blowouts. In those 3 games they never took a foot off the gas once, seemed more like they wanted to pad his stats as much as possible. Against the Phins he threw a TD pass up 29 with 2 minutes left in the game. Yesterday after the RBs pounded the ball up the field over and over again late in the game they give it to Lamar at the goal line on second down. Come on. 

[Billsfanatic8989]

Lamar will get it. And it's tough to say he is undeserving. If Allen had half the amount of turnovers, he probably wins. 

 

 

[DCOrange]

3 hours ago, Punch said:

He had the 4th highest total.

If the other 31 starting QBs all threw 10 INTs and Mahomes threw 1, would you say he threw the 2nd highest total? Who has ever described anything this way? Lol that is being purposefully misleading and meaningless. 

26 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Imagine the Bills chances without Josh.  

Yes Buffalo would probably be bad without Allen just like Baltimore is bad without Lamar. 

2 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

When is MVP voting taking place?

MVP voting has already concluded and everyone knows Lamar won

[VW82]

4 hours ago, first_and_ten said:

 

Did you even watch the above video? 😂

I did, and I thought it was extremely one-sided. Basically, the author set out to make a pro-Allen video where he emphasized areas where Josh looked good and handwaved or ignored completely areas where Josh did not. 

 

He did the performance in losses comparison directly with Lamar only, not pointing out that Lamar had fewer losses and failing to point out Josh had way more turnovers in losses (12) than Lamar. The handwaving of the turnovers in general was weird. Because they didn't happen in the clutch, they don't matter?? Author also lumped turnovers in with sacks when looking at negative plays. How does that make sense?

 

Even still, much of the pro-Josh stats the author illustrated were also pro-Purdy, Dak, and Mahomes. But those guys didn't get their OC fired. It's funny how we've all completely forgotten about that, and about Josh's early season struggles taking the easy play over the home run. This season was supposed to be about turning Josh into a pocket passer who didn't take as many hits. Turns out Josh needs those designed runs to be elite. Are we supposed to pretend like the Jets, Pats, and Broncos games didn't happen?

 

So really, his case is mostly about TDs. A good portion of his rushing TDs would have gone to a RB on any other team. We lost Harris early and Cook is small, and so we elected to start giving it to Josh inside the 10. He deserves credit for that but a lot of those TDs are just canabalizing RB production. They're goosing his numbers. Purdy also has goosed numbers playing with elite weapons, but his statistical profile this year was one of the greatest seasons OF ALL TIME.

 

Josh definitely deserved to be in the top 5 for MVP given his overall production, but you have to handwave so much to get him to #1 imo.   

Edited January 21 by VW82

[GASabresIUFan]

What are the raw numbers?

 

Josh 66.5% completions, 4306 yards, 29 TDS, 18 Ints, plus 524 yards rushing, 15 TDs, 7 fumbles

 

Lamar 67.2% 3678 yards, 24 TDs, 7 Ints, plus 821 yards rushings, 5 tds, 11 fumbles

 

Purdy 69.4%, 4280 yards, 31 TDs, 11 Ints, plus 144 yards rushings, 2 TDs, 6 fumbles

 

Dak 69.5%, 4516 yards, 36 TDs, 9 ints, plus 242 yards rushing, 2 TDs, 4 fumbles

 

Mahomes 67.2%, 4183 yards, 27 TDs, 14 Ints, plus 389 yards rushing 0 TDs, 5 fumbles

 

Josh leads in Total yards and total TDs, but also turnovers by a wide margin.

 

Edited January 21 by GASabresIUFan

[Warcodered]

Just now, GASabresIUFan said:

What are the raw numbers?

 

Josh 66.5% completions, 4306 yards, 29 TDS, 18 Ints, plus 524 yards rushing, 15 TDs, 7 fumbles

 

Lamar 67.2% 3678 yards, 24 TDs, 7 Ints, plus 821 yards rushings, 5 tds, 11 fumbles and a safety.

 

Purdy 69.4%, 4280 yards, 31 TDs, 11 Ints, plus 144 yards rushings, 2 TDs, 6 fumbles

 

Dak 69.5%, 4516 yards, 36 TDs, 9 ints, plus 242 yards rushing, 2 TDs, 4 fumbles

 

Mahomes 67.2%, 4183 yards, 27 TDs, 14 Ints, plus 389 yards rushing 0 TDs, 5 fumbles

 

 

Almost.

[MJS]

1 hour ago, Billsfanatic8989 said:

Lamar will get it. And it's tough to say he is undeserving. If Allen had half the amount of turnovers, he probably wins. 

I think Lamar is not deserving, but I'm not sure anyone is this year, including Allen.

[folz]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

This is a guy pursuing clicks rather than logic.

 

This guy makes mistake after mistake. He says that "the last three Super Bowl-winning QBs have been in the top five in INTs," and he shows a graphic where he says that Mahomes was tied for 4th last year. Um, no, Davis Mills, Dak, Josh, Derek Carr and Cousins all had 13 or more. Mahomes was in a four-way tie for sixth, putting him in the top nine. Not 4th.

 

The same graphic says that Brady was tied for 3rd with 12 the year he won the SB. Yeah, um, wrong again. He also was tied for sixth, though with three other guys. 

 

And why the sudden switch to Super Bowl winners? We're talking about MVP winners, aren't we? The year Brady won the SB, he wasn't the MVP. Rodgers was, throwing 5 INTs. The next year, when Stafford was the SB winner, Rodgers was again MVP. This time with 4 INTs.

 

So the last three MVP winners had 5, 4 and 12 INTs. 

 

Josh has 18 this year. In that group of four, see anything that sticks out?

 

Here are the INT totals for the last 10 winners of the MVP:

 

2022:  12

2021:  4

2020:  5

2019:  6

2018:  12

2017:  8

2016:  7

2015:  10

2014:  5

2013:  10

 

Again, Allen has 18.

 

His INT numbers do not fit with this group. No wonder the guy in this video suddenly and without explanation switches away from SB winners and completely botches the INT rankings of two of the three guys he cites on top of that.

 

It's filled with logical problems and he is spinning like a dreidel.

 

He cites the opposing argument, "But his interceptions directly cost the Bills wins." And his riposte is to cite EPA per total plays. But you can have a very good EPA per total plays and still have cost your team wins. The stat doesn't really address the argument he's trying to knock over at all.

 

Yet he immediately goes on to argue that his EPA data shows that he can't have lost games.

 

Sorry. Very little logic here at all. Clickbait.

 

Allen has had overall a top five season. Which is damn impressive. We're lucky to have him. But arguing he's the MVP is greatly stretching it. 

 

 

 

 

-Only 9 of Josh's interceptions came in the 6 Bills' losses. So, he threw an average of 1.5 INTs in the Bills' losses (none in the 4th quarter).

-Nine of Josh's INTs came in wins (so, they obviously didn't affect the outcome of those games).

-Only in three of the Bills' losses did Josh throw more than 1 pick (2 in each of those three games). Having one pick in a game isn't usually the deciding factor, unless it is at the wrong point in the game (which it wasn't for Josh). So, at best, you could say Josh's interceptions affected 3 games this year. But again, outside of the Jets game on opening day, Josh still had the team in position to win those games (the defense just didn't hold).

 

In Baltimore's three losses, Jackson has thrown three interceptions. So, 1 per game (not that different than 1.5). 

 

And since you brought up former MVP stats (INTs in your post), let's look at MVP TDs. Here are the TD totals for the last 10 MVPs

 Year   Player        Total TDs

2022   Mahomes     45

2021   Rodgers        40

2020  Rodgers         51

2019  Jackson         43

2018  Mahomes       52

2017  Brady              32

2016  Ryan               38

2015  Newton          45

2014  Rodgers         40

2013  Manning         56

 

2023 Jackson          29

2023 Allen               44

 

So, you can say no MVP has had as many INTs as Josh in the last 10 years, but you can also say that no MVP had as low of a touchdown total as Jackson in the last 10 years. Why are Josh's INTs an issue, but Lamar's low TD total isn't? Especially when TDs are 7 points each time, while INTs may turn into 7 points, but maybe only 3 points, or zero points if the defense holds. So, TDs still outweigh INTs. Brady in 2017 is the only one close to Lamar's low TD total, but he had 900 more passing yards in 2017 than Jackson did this year. Even if you add in rushing, Brady still had more than 110 yards more than Lamar, 3 more TDs, and one less INT. Every other MVP had anywhere from 9 to 27 more TDs than 2023 Lamar. Do you know what the average TD total is for the last 10 MVPs? It is 44.2 TDs. Right where Josh is at (44) and 15 more TDs than Jackson this year. Even in Jackson's 2019 MVP season, he had 14 more TDs than he has this year. 

[Cray51]

22 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Nonsense.

 

Allen's turnovers did a hell of a lot more to lose the Broncos game than the (admittedly stupid and unbelievably frustrating) 12 men on the field penalty. They lost six points directly from the two INTs.

 

And that's ignoring the rest of his not very good game.

 

The first INT, they were on the Broncos 28. That's 3 lost points, minimum.

 

The second INT, the Broncos got the ball on the Bills 31 and hit a field goal.

 

That's a six point turnaround minimum, and the Bills lost by two. The stupid 12 men penalty would never have happened, as the Broncos would have needed eight points to tie and would have been forced to go for a TD.

 

Allen was a major factor.

 

Even larger in the Jets game, yes. But really big in both.

 

 

 

Funny looking at this post after Bass missed a field goal from the KC 27...

[first_and_ten]

On 1/21/2024 at 2:34 PM, VW82 said:

I did, and I thought it was extremely one-sided. Basically, the author set out to make a pro-Allen video where he emphasized areas where Josh looked good and handwaved or ignored completely areas where Josh did not. 

 

He did the performance in losses comparison directly with Lamar only, not pointing out that Lamar had fewer losses and failing to point out Josh had way more turnovers in losses (12) than Lamar. The handwaving of the turnovers in general was weird. Because they didn't happen in the clutch, they don't matter?? Author also lumped turnovers in with sacks when looking at negative plays. How does that make sense?

 

Even still, much of the pro-Josh stats the author illustrated were also pro-Purdy, Dak, and Mahomes. But those guys didn't get their OC fired. It's funny how we've all completely forgotten about that, and about Josh's early season struggles taking the easy play over the home run. This season was supposed to be about turning Josh into a pocket passer who didn't take as many hits. Turns out Josh needs those designed runs to be elite. Are we supposed to pretend like the Jets, Pats, and Broncos games didn't happen?

 

So really, his case is mostly about TDs. A good portion of his rushing TDs would have gone to a RB on any other team. We lost Harris early and Cook is small, and so we elected to start giving it to Josh inside the 10. He deserves credit for that but a lot of those TDs are just canabalizing RB production. They're goosing his numbers. Purdy also has goosed numbers playing with elite weapons, but his statistical profile this year was one of the greatest seasons OF ALL TIME.

 

Josh definitely deserved to be in the top 5 for MVP given his overall production, but you have to handwave so much to get him to #1 imo.   

 

I'll ask you this question. Would you rather have Lamar or Josh? Also, I think it's very unfair to say that Josh got his OC fired. Is it just possible that Dorsey got himself fired? Also, Josh didn't need to be turned into a pocket passer. He has already shown that ability. The part about not taking as many hits was encouraging him to slide or get out of bounds when he did run. It's also silly to try and make it seem like his touchdowns are "goosing" his production. The reason he can run inside the ten is because he's great at it. How many other quarterbacks can do it like him? 

 

 

[Tim Tindale]

On 1/20/2024 at 6:15 PM, Patrick Fitzryan said:

Anytime Lamar runs into a coach in the postseason who has any defensive acumen, he turns into a poor man's Tyrod Taylor. He's not as good as Allen, Burrow, or Mahomes, for sure, and I don't think as good as A- guys like Herbert and Hurts either.

Herbert is going to continue to be the highest multiple stock on the planet. He gets a pass because he has a one-game playoff resume.  You can’t struggle on the big stage if you don’t actually play in the games. 

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

On 1/21/2024 at 2:27 PM, folz said:

 

-Only 9 of Josh's interceptions came in the 6 Bills' losses. So, he threw an average of 1.5 INTs in the Bills' losses (none in the 4th quarter).

-Nine of Josh's INTs came in wins (so, they obviously didn't affect the outcome of those games).

-Only in three of the Bills' losses did Josh throw more than 1 pick (2 in each of those three games). Having one pick in a game isn't usually the deciding factor, unless it is at the wrong point in the game (which it wasn't for Josh). So, at best, you could say Josh's interceptions affected 3 games this year. But again, outside of the Jets game on opening day, Josh still had the team in position to win those games (the defense just didn't hold).

 

In Baltimore's three losses, Jackson has thrown three interceptions. So, 1 per game (not that different than 1.5). 

 

And since you brought up former MVP stats (INTs in your post), let's look at MVP TDs. Here are the TD totals for the last 10 MVPs

 Year   Player        Total TDs

2022   Mahomes     45

2021   Rodgers        40

2020  Rodgers         51

2019  Jackson         43

2018  Mahomes       52

2017  Brady              32

2016  Ryan               38

2015  Newton          45

2014  Rodgers         40

2013  Manning         56

 

2023 Jackson          29

2023 Allen               44

 

So, you can say no MVP has had as many INTs as Josh in the last 10 years, but you can also say that no MVP had as low of a touchdown total as Jackson in the last 10 years. Why are Josh's INTs an issue, but Lamar's low TD total isn't? Especially when TDs are 7 points each time, while INTs may turn into 7 points, but maybe only 3 points, or zero points if the defense holds. So, TDs still outweigh INTs. Brady in 2017 is the only one close to Lamar's low TD total, but he had 900 more passing yards in 2017 than Jackson did this year. Even if you add in rushing, Brady still had more than 110 yards more than Lamar, 3 more TDs, and one less INT. Every other MVP had anywhere from 9 to 27 more TDs than 2023 Lamar. Do you know what the average TD total is for the last 10 MVPs? It is 44.2 TDs. Right where Josh is at (44) and 15 more TDs than Jackson this year. Even in Jackson's 2019 MVP season, he had 14 more TDs than he has this year. 

 

Like someone said in another thread.  Replace Allen's name with Mahomes with 29 Passing/15 Rushing TDs and he would be the MVP.  

[Bob Jones]

On 1/20/2024 at 11:42 PM, Buffalo03 said:

Tell me you're a troll without telling me you're a troll

Yes, whenever you disagree with someone's opinion, they must be a troll. 🙄

[Buffalo03]

18 minutes ago, Bob Jones said:

Yes, whenever you disagree with someone's opinion, they must be a troll. 🙄

That's not at all what that means or what I meant

[1onemangang7]

On 1/20/2024 at 4:14 PM, VW82 said:

If it wasn't Lamar, it should have been Purdy. I think it was Barnwell who pointed out that Purdy had the 4th greatest statistical season of all time by any/a+. Dak had a better statistical season as well. Mahomes was about the same as Josh and arguably had less weapons. 

 

Josh will hopefully prove he's the best player in the NFL with this upcoming SB run, but as for 2023 MVP, No. 

Wow look at all the negative reactions to this post. They all are quick to point out Cooks stats in his defense, but not Purdy for one reason and one reason only. The uniform. Let's find a wr 🙄

[jlgarsh]

3 hours ago, 1onemangang7 said:

Wow look at all the negative reactions to this post. They all are quick to point out Cooks stats in his defense, but not Purdy for one reason and one reason only. The uniform. Let's find a wr 🙄

Zach Wilson could have looked competent with McCaffrey, Kittle, Samuel, Ayiuk, and Juschyk. Look at Jimmy G, etc.

[1onemangang7]

4 minutes ago, jlgarsh said:

Zach Wilson could have looked competent with McCaffrey, Kittle, Samuel, Ayiuk, and Juschyk. Look at Jimmy G, etc.

And insert rb could get stats in an Allen lead defense.  The design runs need to stop. Someone else has to take that job from him to advance.

Edited February 1 by 1onemangang7

[jlgarsh]

3 minutes ago, 1onemangang7 said:

And insert rb could get stats in an Allen lead defense.  The design runs need to stop. Someone else has to take that job from him to advance.

I just meant that's why I don't see apurdy as MVP. McCaffrey made a bigger impact.

[1onemangang7]

8 minutes ago, jlgarsh said:

I just meant that's why I don't see apurdy as MVP. McCaffrey made a bigger 

No disagreement. I don't really think I hear anyone nationwide that thinks so unless they believe what the announcers and talking heads feed them. My deal is Bills fans see that but endorse McBeane and Cook. Ask the question. Put it to them. Why haven't you gotten Allen a runner in 7 years? 58 superbowls not 1 has been won by a running qb. So just don't try? Gee this Cook guy they love him, work is done.

Edited February 1 by 1onemangang7