Josh Allen: The Correct Choice for NFL MVP

[folz]

2 hours ago, miketysonslisp said:

Ravens had the most wins while playing in the winningest division in the NFL. They literally blew out playoff caliber teams week in week out. Lamar didnt need 50 tds they were already up on their opponents by the 4th q. We barely scrapped into the playoffs and played a lighter schedule. Give jackson his due. We have another MVP we are eyeing.

 

While the Ravens did have a harder overall schedule (according to wins and losses by opponents), Josh (the Bills) had a better record against playoff teams.

 

Josh/Bills were 5-1 against playoff teams, with the only loss being to Philly in OT, a game that the refs stole from Buffalo (and should have been a win).

Lamar/Ravens were 6-3 against playoff teams---you could subtract one loss due to Baltimore sitting Jackson and others in week 18, to make a 6-2 record vs. playoff teams for Lamar.

 

So, Josh won 83.33% of games vs. playoff teams (as I said, it should have been 100%), and Lamar won 75% of games vs. playoff teams (not counting week 18).

[Albany,n.y.]

16 hours ago, julian said:

until you watch Purdy and Allen play the game of football and quickly realize there’s levels to this QB thing lol.

Another good reason that watching players on the field instead of looking at stats is the proper way to evaluate QBs.  There are certain players who look a lot better on paper than on the field.  My #1 paper tiger is Kirk Cousins.  Looks great on paper & many fall for his stats but comes up small on the field in clutch moments.  

 

I said this many times, but I'll repeat it here: There's a reason players and coaches study videos for hours instead of just having a short meeting, have the coaches hand out stat sheets & announce "Go get 'em boys" 

[Thurman#1]

16 hours ago, MJS said:

I saw this video and thought I would share this. He makes some great points:

 

 

 

 

This is a guy pursuing clicks rather than logic.

 

This guy makes mistake after mistake. He says that "the last three Super Bowl-winning QBs have been in the top five in INTs," and he shows a graphic where he says that Mahomes was tied for 4th last year. Um, no, Davis Mills, Dak, Josh, Derek Carr and Cousins all had 13 or more. Mahomes was in a four-way tie for sixth, putting him in the top nine. Not 4th.

 

The same graphic says that Brady was tied for 3rd with 12 the year he won the SB. Yeah, um, wrong again. He also was tied for sixth, though with three other guys. 

 

And why the sudden switch to Super Bowl winners? We're talking about MVP winners, aren't we? The year Brady won the SB, he wasn't the MVP. Rodgers was, throwing 5 INTs. The next year, when Stafford was the SB winner, Rodgers was again MVP. This time with 4 INTs.

 

So the last three MVP winners had 5, 4 and 12 INTs. 

 

Josh has 18 this year. In that group of four, see anything that sticks out?

 

Here are the INT totals for the last 10 winners of the MVP:

 

2022:  12

2021:  4

2020:  5

2019:  6

2018:  12

2017:  8

2016:  7

2015:  10

2014:  5

2013:  10

 

Again, Allen has 18.

 

His INT numbers do not fit with this group. No wonder the guy in this video suddenly and without explanation switches away from SB winners and completely botches the INT rankings of two of the three guys he cites on top of that.

 

It's filled with logical problems and he is spinning like a dreidel.

 

He cites the opposing argument, "But his interceptions directly cost the Bills wins." And his riposte is to cite EPA per total plays. But you can have a very good EPA per total plays and still have cost your team wins. The stat doesn't really address the argument he's trying to knock over at all.

 

Yet he immediately goes on to argue that his EPA data shows that he can't have lost games.

 

Sorry. Very little logic here at all. Clickbait.

 

Allen has had overall a top five season. Which is damn impressive. We're lucky to have him. But arguing he's the MVP is greatly stretching it. 

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

53 minutes ago, folz said:

 

While the Ravens did have a harder overall schedule (according to wins and losses by opponents), Josh (the Bills) had a better record against playoff teams.

 

Josh/Bills were 5-1 against playoff teams, with the only loss being to Philly in OT, a game that the refs stole from Buffalo (and should have been a win).

Lamar/Ravens were 6-3 against playoff teams---you could subtract one loss due to Baltimore sitting Jackson and others in week 18, to make a 6-2 record vs. playoff teams for Lamar.

 

So, Josh won 83.33% of games vs. playoff teams (as I said, it should have been 100%), and Lamar won 75% of games vs. playoff teams (not counting week 18).

 

 

So, losses against bad teams are OK, because being beaten by bad teams is OK?

 

Also, I think I've come up with a brilliant new quotation here, check it out:

 

"Wins and losses are not a QB stat, they are a team stat." Brilliant fresh new idea, right? Oh, not so fresh? Fair enough, but it's still right on target. You get it, I know, as you're using the slashes there, "Josh/Bills," but it's still being ignored in a lot of arguments here.

 

Lamar has been more consistent this year. Which is really big.

[ToGoGo]

11 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

This is a guy pursuing clicks rather than logic.

 

This guy makes mistake after mistake. He says that "the last three Super Bowl-winning QBs have been in the top five in INTs," and he shows a graphic where he says that Mahomes was tied for 4th last year. Um, no, Davis Mills, Dak, Josh, Derek Carr and Cousins all had 13 or more. Mahomes was in a four-way tie for sixth, putting him in the top nine. Not 4th.

 

The same graphic says that Brady was tied for 3rd with 12 the year he won the SB. Yeah, um, wrong again. He also was tied for sixth, though with three other guys. 

 

And why the sudden switch to Super Bowl winners? We're talking about MVP winners, aren't we? The year Brady won the SB, he wasn't the MVP. Rodgers was, throwing 5 INTs. The next year, when Stafford was the SB winner, Rodgers was again MVP. This time with 4 INTs.

 

So the last three MVP winners had 5, 4 and 12 INTs. 

 

Josh has 18 this year. In that group of four, see anything that sticks out?

 

Here are the INT totals for the last 10 winners of the MVP:

 

2022:  12

2021:  4

2020:  5

2019:  6

2018:  12

2017:  8

2016:  7

2015:  10

2014:  5

2013:  10

 

Again, Allen has 18.

 

His INT numbers do not fit with this group. No wonder the guy in this video suddenly and without explanation switches away from SB winners and completely botches the INT rankings of two of the three guys he cites on top of that.

 

It's filled with logical problems and he is spinning like a dreidel.

 

He cites the opposing argument, "But his interceptions directly cost the Bills wins." And his riposte is to cite EPA per total plays. But you can have a very good EPA per total plays and still have cost your team wins. The stat doesn't really address the argument he's trying to knock over at all.

 

Yet he immediately goes on to argue that his EPA data shows that he can't have lost games.

 

Sorry. Very little logic here at all. Clickbait.

 

Allen has had overall a top five season. Which is damn impressive. We're lucky to have him. But arguing he's the MVP is greatly stretching it. 

 

 

 

You’re nitpicking. Ignoring the macro for the micro. 
 

Allen was unanimous MVP this year in a rational world. All the arguments against are BS. 

[Chaos]

Lamar is proven to be a far better QB than I ever expected. Kudos to him.  However, in terms of importance to his team, Tyler Huntley demonstrated last year, that the Ravens can win even without Lamar.  The even were competetive in the playoff game against the Bengals last year. 

 

The Bills hopefully will never be tested in this regard, but I think we all know the offense stalls completely without Josh.   I think Josh is more valuable. If you just go by stats, than you have to think Brock Purdy is more valuable to his team, than 30 other QBS in the NFL.  Brock is an excellent QB with a great future.  But he is not more important to the 49ers, than quite a few other QBs are to their teams.  

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, Cray51 said:

Both Allen and Mahomes “lost” one game for their team this season (Allen Jets and Mahomes Raiders)

 

allen and Mahomes had very similar passing statistics this season, with Allen having a profoundly better rushing season.

 

 

to your point, Mahomes amps up running in the postseason, but the MVP is a focus on the regular season.

 

i agree that Lamar will win the MVP, but if Lamar doesn’t exist, Allen is likely top3 in MVP, Mahomes might not be top 10

 

 

Agree with you on what the MVP is about. 100%.

 

But you're saying that Allen "lost" one game this year? 

 

Josh's three turnovers had a massive effect on the Broncos game. And he didn't play all that well in several of our losses.

 

QBs don't lose games anymore than they win them, it's a team stat. But Josh was one of the main reasons for probably three to four of our losses and had bad games in a couple of wins besides. I'm sure he'd agree.

 

He also had some terrific games, and he's played a lot better down the stretch, which is really encouraging.

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

Perhaps I’m in the minority, but I couldn’t care less.  My singular focus is on a Lombardi, not individual accolades. 

[Punch]

27 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

This guy makes mistake after mistake. He says that "the last three Super Bowl-winning QBs have been in the top five in INTs," and he shows a graphic where he says that Mahomes was tied for 4th last year. Um, no, Davis Mills, Dak, Josh, Derek Carr and Cousins all had 13 or more. Mahomes was in a four-way tie for sixth, putting him in the top nine. Not 4th.

 

The same graphic says that Brady was tied for 3rd with 12 the year he won the SB. Yeah, um, wrong again. He also was tied for sixth, though with three other guys. 

He said Mahomes had the 4th most interceptions in 2022 and Brady the 6th most in 2021, which is objectively true:

 

[Thurman#1]

25 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

You’re nitpicking. Ignoring the macro for the micro. 
 

Allen was unanimous MVP this year in a rational world. All the arguments against are BS. 

 

 

When you are wrong time after time after time in the micro, your macro ideas can't be taken seriously.

 

When you can't come up with logical and factual reasons to support your main idea, there's likely a problem with that main idea.

 

And "unanimous MVP"? Sorry, man, that's just stupid. It's about as far from unanimous as you can get, as few people think so. 

 

Know what happens to guys who should be the unanimous MVP? They win the MVP.

Edited January 21 by Thurman#1

[SoonerBillsFan]

35 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

This is a guy pursuing clicks rather than logic.

 

This guy makes mistake after mistake. He says that "the last three Super Bowl-winning QBs have been in the top five in INTs," and he shows a graphic where he says that Mahomes was tied for 4th last year. Um, no, Davis Mills, Dak, Josh, Derek Carr and Cousins all had 13 or more. Mahomes was in a four-way tie for sixth, putting him in the top nine. Not 4th.

 

The same graphic says that Brady was tied for 3rd with 12 the year he won the SB. Yeah, um, wrong again. He also was tied for sixth, though with three other guys. 

 

And why the sudden switch to Super Bowl winners? We're talking about MVP winners, aren't we? The year Brady won the SB, he wasn't the MVP. Rodgers was, throwing 5 INTs. The next year, when Stafford was the SB winner, Rodgers was again MVP. This time with 4 INTs.

 

So the last three MVP winners had 5, 4 and 12 INTs. 

 

Josh has 18 this year. In that group of four, see anything that sticks out?

 

Here are the INT totals for the last 10 winners of the MVP:

 

2022:  12

2021:  4

2020:  5

2019:  6

2018:  12

2017:  8

2016:  7

2015:  10

2014:  5

2013:  10

 

Again, Allen has 18.

 

His INT numbers do not fit with this group. No wonder the guy in this video suddenly and without explanation switches away from SB winners and completely botches the INT rankings of two of the three guys he cites on top of that.

 

It's filled with logical problems and he is spinning like a dreidel.

 

He cites the opposing argument, "But his interceptions directly cost the Bills wins." And his riposte is to cite EPA per total plays. But you can have a very good EPA per total plays and still have cost your team wins. The stat doesn't really address the argument he's trying to knock over at all.

 

Yet he immediately goes on to argue that his EPA data shows that he can't have lost games.

 

Sorry. Very little logic here at all. Clickbait.

 

Allen has had overall a top five season. Which is damn impressive. We're lucky to have him. But arguing he's the MVP is greatly stretching it. 

 

 

 

I don't care about how many Int's. How many touchdowns?  Allen clearly leads the NFL by a sizeable margin in total TD's.  If not for Allen this team is drafting top 5 at best. Its not supposed to be the top players on the team with the best record BS.  Allen is the MVP hands down, but the Media continues its pure hate of the fact the kid is the best QB in the NFL because they got it wrong leading up to the draft.

[cisco2403]

21 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

You’re nitpicking. Ignoring the macro for the micro. 
 

Allen was unanimous MVP this year in a rational world. All the arguments against are BS. 

Allen will never win MVP. You have Bills fans on here who go out of their way to refute why he shouldn’t win it or isn’t better than other QBs. How is he ever going to convince an objective observer if some of the fans from his own team would rather put him down in the face of good reason why he should be MVP over others.

 

 

[Cray51]

5 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Agree with you on what the MVP is about. 100%.

 

But you're saying that Allen "lost" one game this year? 

 

Josh's three turnovers had a massive effect on the Broncos game. And he didn't play all that well in several of our losses.

 

QBs don't lose games anymore than they win them, it's a team stat. But Josh was one of the main reasons for probably three to four of our losses and had bad games in a couple of wins besides. I'm sure he'd agree.

 

He also had some terrific games, and he's played a lot better down the stretch, which is really encouraging.

Being bad and causing losses are two different things.

 

Brocos game was LOST due to special teams having 12 men.  Allen played poorly, but gave his team the lead

 

jets game Allen LOST because he played poorly AND caused a 3 and out AND caused a direct turnover with his inability to handle a snap which allowed the Jets to take the lead

 

mahomes caused a loss because he threw a very poor pick six and handoff fumble and couldn’t manage his team down the field in any capacity.

 

Broncos game was more of a team loss with a special teams disaster.  To me that’s not a loss ON Allen

[Thurman#1]

5 minutes ago, Punch said:

He said Mahomes had the 4th most interceptions in 2022 and Brady the 6th most in 2021, which is objectively true:

 

 

 

You say "he said Mahomes had the 4th most interceptions in 2022 and Brady the 6th most in 2021," did he?

 

I only watched the first three minutes or so because he was so off so many times, but I sure didn't hear him say that. Where does he say that? Can you give me the time where he says that? 

 

What I saw, at is that he said that "the last three Super Bowl-winning QBs have been in the top five in INTs," and he shows a graphic where he says that Mahomes was tied for 4th last year. 

 

Both objectively wrong.

 

 

 

 

[ToGoGo]

8 minutes ago, cisco2403 said:

Allen will never win MVP. You have Bills fans on here who go out of their way to refute why he shouldn’t win it or isn’t better than other QBs. How is he ever going to convince an objective observer if some of the fans from his own team would rather put him down in the face of good reason why he should be MVP over others.

 

 

We win a Super Bowl this year and the nation will see his positives and award him an MVP next year. 
 

Rules of haters: they ignore macro success and pull down on micro failures. 
 

Nobody in the history of Earth didn’t have micro failures. The point is they overcome them. 
 

When people, and people who should be on our side, refuse to recognize that, there’s a serious problem and they should be ignored. 

[Punch]

5 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You say "he said Mahomes had the 4th most interceptions in 2022 and Brady the 6th most in 2021," did he?

 

I only watched the first three minutes or so because he was so off so many times, but I sure didn't hear him say that. Where does he say that? Can you give me the time where he says that? 

 

What I saw, at is that he said that "the last three Super Bowl-winning QBs have been in the top five in INTs," and he shows a graphic where he says that Mahomes was tied for 4th last year. 

 

Both objectively wrong.

 

 

 

 

The graphic says 'T-4th' for Mahomes, you can choose to not interpret that as the 4th most interceptions and die on this hill I guess. There is a mistake with Brady, it says 'T-3rd' onscreen but he specifically says top 5.

 

I hope you enjoy your Sunday yelling at the internet about technicalities while we watch Bills-Chiefs.

[Brand J]

I’d say that Allen looked far too pedestrian against middling teams to warrant MVP consideration. To his credit, he’s raised his level of play when going against the good teams, but to call him the league’s “most valuable player” when the Bills have won multiple games in which he was off for a large portion of the contest, I don’t know.  

[DCOrange]

31 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Lamar is proven to be a far better QB than I ever expected. Kudos to him.  However, in terms of importance to his team, Tyler Huntley demonstrated last year, that the Ravens can win even without Lamar.  The even were competetive in the playoff game against the Bengals last year. 

 

The Bills hopefully will never be tested in this regard, but I think we all know the offense stalls completely without Josh.   I think Josh is more valuable. If you just go by stats, than you have to think Brock Purdy is more valuable to his team, than 30 other QBS in the NFL.  Brock is an excellent QB with a great future.  But he is not more important to the 49ers, than quite a few other QBs are to their teams.  

Baltimore's offense averages roughly 15 fewer points per game with Huntley at the helm vs. Lamar and Baltimore's record with Huntley as the main guy is 4-8 (including the playoff loss) vs. their record with Lamar being 59-24. They are a ton worse with Huntley as the QB. Stumbling into the playoffs with him playing the last couple games does not mean it's not a huge downgrade.

[DrBob806]

10 hours ago, Billl said:

You think Herbert is better than Lamar?  🤣

Right!!!

 

If Herbert was so good, the LAC would be a contender every season. He's way over-hyped.

[DCOrange]

32 minutes ago, Punch said:

He said Mahomes had the 4th most interceptions in 2022 and Brady the 6th most in 2021, which is objectively true:

 

How does he have the 4th most INTs if there are 6 QBs that had more INTs? That's not how math works.