Chiefs D is pretty good but so is the Bills

[DJB]

1 hour ago, jtrip said:

Why be a D#%K ?

Because it’s a joke and you shouldn’t take yourself too seriously all the time. You will live longer 

[BuffaloBill]

11 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

  Chiefs finished 2nd in scoring and 4th against the pass but they are the 17th rated D against the run. 

  For comparison Bills D finished 4th in scoring and 7th against the pass and where a couple spots ahead of the Chiefs at 15th against the run.

 

This game more than likely will come down to Mahomes and Pacheco against Allen and Cook and who controls the clock. As both teams are very good at limiting explosive plays down field. 

 

 

I like the Bills chances to control the clock with the run game.  

[Saxum]

11 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

 

I like the Bills chances to control the clock with the run game.  

 

Bills can only control the clock with the run game if there is danger of Allen throwing a pass.

Bills cannot successfully run against KC Kings like they did Dallass.

[BuffaloBill]

2 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

Bills can only control the clock with the run game if there is danger of Allen throwing a pass.

Bills cannot successfully run against KC Kings like they did Dallass.

 

With JA in the game the Bills are always a threat to pass.  I just think there will be a control the clock mentality and plan given the Bills D is so banged up.  Mahomes and friends can’t score when they doi not have the ball.  

[eball]

Chiefs’ D reminds me of some of the recent Bills’ defenses…really good regular season stats beating up on bad teams, then faltering when facing top level QBs and offenses (especially on the road).  Call me a homer but I expect Josh and the Bills to move the ball and score more easily than I keep hearing from the talking heads and most fans.  Conversely, I think the Bills are finally stout on the D line, which is coincidentally where they are the most healthy, and that combined with an unbelievable home crowd are going to make life miserable for Mahomes and the Chiefs.

 

Go Bills!!!  15 and 6, Babyyyy!!!!

 

[Rockinon]

Now compare the offenses. Advantage - Bills

[longtimebillsfan]

1 hour ago, T master said:

This season has been filled with injury's for the Bills i wish both teams were at full strength so there would be no excuses what so ever . That being said if something doesn't work out well there will be plenty of "FIRE McD" posts out there .

 

Right now they are all on the wagon & not saying very much because to this point McD has for the most part proven he is the man for the job even if they won't admit it .

 

You can bet if the Bills were to win the SB the silence would be defining from the McD haters well at least until next year when he didn't call the perfect game then they would be back in full force .

In your senario, all it would take us the first kiss next year and they would all be out in full force calling for McDermott to be replaced.

[folz]

10 hours ago, Special K said:

Maybe I am mistaken, but I thought I heard one of the talking heads say that the Chiefs D is way better at home than they are on the road.

 

Sort of like the Browns D.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Chiefs played 9 games at home and 8 games on the road this season.

 

At home, they allowed 148 points to teams with a combined record of 82-71 (9 games). An average of 16.44 points per game.

On the road, they have allowed 149 points to teams with a combined record of 57-79 (8 games). An average of 18.63 points per game.

 

So, there is a small difference between home and road for the Chiefs, but considering the teams they played at home were better than the teams they faced on the road, that does increase the gap a bit (as far as them being better at home than on the road).

 

Quaterbacks the Chiefs faced this year (KC's outcome in parens): Jared Goff (loss), Trevor Lawrence (win), Justin Fields (win), Zach Wilson (win), Kirk Cousins (win), Russell Wilson twice (win & loss), Justin Herbert (win), Tua T (win), Jalen Hurts (loss), Aidan O'Connell twice (win & loss), Jordan Love (loss), Josh Allen (loss), Bailey Zappe (win), Jake Browning (win), Blaine Gabbert (win).

 

 

For comparison, the Bills played 8 games at home and 9 games on the road this year.

 

At home, the Bills allowed 118 points to teams with a combined record of 65-71. An average of 14.75 points per game.

On the road, the Bills allowed 193 points to teams with a combined record of 71-82. An average of 21.44 points per game.

 

So, the Bills' defense definitely seems to be better at home, though their home opponents did have 6 less wins than their away opponents.

 

Quarterbacks the Bills faced this year (Bills outcome in parens): Zach Wilson (loss), Jimmy Garapollo (win), Sam Howell (win), Tua T twice (two wins), Trevor Lawrence (loss), Tyrod Taylor (win), Mac Jones (loss), Baker Mayfield (win), Joe Burrow (loss), Russell Wilson (loss), Zach Wilson/Tim Boyle (win), Jalen Hurts (loss), Patrick Mahomes (win), Dak Prescott (win), Easton Stick (win), Bailey Zappe (win).

 

 

-Only 11 points separate the two defenses (Bills/Chiefs) over 17 games. So, the Chiefs allowed 0.64 points less per game than the Bills.

-As far as opponent win percentage, the Chiefs opponents were a combined 139-150, while the Bills' opponents were a combined 136-153...so only 3 games different.

-The level of QB play that each team faced is about equal (no clear advantage to either team, imo).

-The Bills and Chiefs shared nine common opponents this season, with their records against those teams as follows:

 Chiefs 8-3   Bills 6-6

-Both, overall, ended the season at 11-6

-The Bills did score 80 more points on offense than the Chiefs did this season, leading to a better Net Point differential (Bills 140/Chiefs 77).

 

Everything stacks up pretty evenly. The Chiefs have a bit of an advantage in common opponent record and the Bills have an advantage in net points. 

 

So, yes, it may just come down to home field advantage and Bills Mafia, as the Chiefs are slightly worse on the road and the Bills are a bit better at home.

 

 

 

[Utah John]

It's going to come down to which specific players and positions are affected.  The Chiefs built an O line with a strong G-C-G interior, but their tackles are injured or terrible.  (Their right tackle shouldn't be in the NFL.  He is worse than the lousy tackles the Bills had prior to Spencer Brown becoming good.)  The strength of our D line is the interior, so that's just going to be a battle.  Our edge rushers are just average compared to the rest of the league's, but they're the ones who should be affecting the play the most.  

 

Our O line has been solid all year but even with the new guards it can get out-muscled on the interior.  Dawkins has been very good usually but lately he's been steamrolled too on occasion.  

 

If we had all oiur D players healthy I think McDermott would send pressures a lot, but with the LBs and CBs we have I don't know if he'll take the chance.  The really key players who might or might not play are Taron Johnson and Bernard.  If they both play I think the Bills win and KC doesn't even get 20 points.  

[Utah John]

2 minutes ago, folz said:

 

The Chiefs played 9 games at home and 8 games on the road this season.

 

At home, they allowed 148 points to teams with a combined record of 82-71 (9 games). An average of 16.44 points per game.

On the road, they have allowed 149 points to teams with a combined record of 57-79 (8 games). An average of 18.63 points per game.

 

So, there is a small difference between home and road for the Chiefs, but considering the teams they played at home were better than the teams they faced on the road, that does increase the gap a bit (as far as them being better at home than on the road).

 

Quaterbacks the Chiefs faced this year (KC's outcome in parens): Jared Goff (loss), Trevor Lawrence (win), Justin Fields (win), Zach Wilson (win), Kirk Cousins (win), Russell Wilson twice (win & loss), Justin Herbert (win), Tua T (win), Jalen Hurts (loss), Aidan O'Connell twice (win & loss), Jordan Love (loss), Josh Allen (loss), Bailey Zappe (win), Jake Browning (win), Blaine Gabbert (win).

 

 

For comparison, the Bills played 8 games at home and 9 games on the road this year.

 

At home, the Bills allowed 118 points to teams with a combined record of 65-71. An average of 14.75 points per game.

On the road, the Bills allowed 193 points to teams with a combined record of 71-82. An average of 21.44 points per game.

 

So, the Bills' defense definitely seems to be better at home, though their home opponents did have 6 less wins than their away opponents.

 

Quarterbacks the Bills faced this year (Bills outcome in parens): Zach Wilson (loss), Jimmy Garapollo (win), Sam Howell (win), Tua T twice (two wins), Trevor Lawrence (loss), Tyrod Taylor (win), Mac Jones (loss), Baker Mayfield (win), Joe Burrow (loss), Russell Wilson (loss), Zach Wilson/Tim Boyle (win), Jalen Hurts (loss), Patrick Mahomes (win), Dak Prescott (win), Easton Stick (win), Bailey Zappe (win).

 

 

-Only 11 points separate the two defenses (Bills/Chiefs) over 17 games. So, the Chiefs allowed 0.64 points less per game than the Bills.

-As far as opponent win percentage, the Chiefs opponents were a combined 139-150, while the Bills' opponents were a combined 136-153...so only 3 games different.

-The level of QB play that each team faced is about equal (no clear advantage to either team, imo).

-The Bills and Chiefs shared nine common opponents this season, with their records against those teams as follows:

 Chiefs 8-3   Bills 6-6

-Both, overall, ended the season at 11-6

-The Bills did score 80 more points on offense than the Chiefs did this season, leading to a better Net Point differential (Bills 140/Chiefs 77).

 

Everything stacks up pretty evenly. The Chiefs have a bit of an advantage in common opponent record and the Bills have an advantage in net points. 

 

So, yes, it may just come down to home field advantage and Bills Mafia, as the Chiefs are slightly worse on the road and the Bills are a bit better at home.

 

 

 

Considering all the injuries, looking at statistics from the regular season is not really definitive.  (You listed the London game against the Jags as an away game but the NFL considered it a home game for the Bills.  Probably the best way to handle that game is to not include it in the stats.)  I think the last month of the regular season is a better indicator than what happened in September and October, but even that is suspect because the teams' makeup is so different now.  What matters is what the players and coaches involved tomorrow bring to the field.

[78thealltimegreat]

2 hours ago, Simon said:

 

Because the original poster has a lengthy history of starting inane threads on subjects already being discussed elsewhere, that seem to exist for no other purpose than to draw attention to himself.

Not really 

[Special K]

17 minutes ago, folz said:

 

The Chiefs played 9 games at home and 8 games on the road this season.

 

At home, they allowed 148 points to teams with a combined record of 82-71 (9 games). An average of 16.44 points per game.

On the road, they have allowed 149 points to teams with a combined record of 57-79 (8 games). An average of 18.63 points per game.

 

So, there is a small difference between home and road for the Chiefs, but considering the teams they played at home were better than the teams they faced on the road, that does increase the gap a bit (as far as them being better at home than on the road).

 

Quaterbacks the Chiefs faced this year (KC's outcome in parens): Jared Goff (loss), Trevor Lawrence (win), Justin Fields (win), Zach Wilson (win), Kirk Cousins (win), Russell Wilson twice (win & loss), Justin Herbert (win), Tua T (win), Jalen Hurts (loss), Aidan O'Connell twice (win & loss), Jordan Love (loss), Josh Allen (loss), Bailey Zappe (win), Jake Browning (win), Blaine Gabbert (win).

 

 

For comparison, the Bills played 8 games at home and 9 games on the road this year.

 

At home, the Bills allowed 118 points to teams with a combined record of 65-71. An average of 14.75 points per game.

On the road, the Bills allowed 193 points to teams with a combined record of 71-82. An average of 21.44 points per game.

 

So, the Bills' defense definitely seems to be better at home, though their home opponents did have 6 less wins than their away opponents.

 

Quarterbacks the Bills faced this year (Bills outcome in parens): Zach Wilson (loss), Jimmy Garapollo (win), Sam Howell (win), Tua T twice (two wins), Trevor Lawrence (loss), Tyrod Taylor (win), Mac Jones (loss), Baker Mayfield (win), Joe Burrow (loss), Russell Wilson (loss), Zach Wilson/Tim Boyle (win), Jalen Hurts (loss), Patrick Mahomes (win), Dak Prescott (win), Easton Stick (win), Bailey Zappe (win).

 

 

-Only 11 points separate the two defenses (Bills/Chiefs) over 17 games. So, the Chiefs allowed 0.64 points less per game than the Bills.

-As far as opponent win percentage, the Chiefs opponents were a combined 139-150, while the Bills' opponents were a combined 136-153...so only 3 games different.

-The level of QB play that each team faced is about equal (no clear advantage to either team, imo).

-The Bills and Chiefs shared nine common opponents this season, with their records against those teams as follows:

 Chiefs 8-3   Bills 6-6

-Both, overall, ended the season at 11-6

-The Bills did score 80 more points on offense than the Chiefs did this season, leading to a better Net Point differential (Bills 140/Chiefs 77).

 

Everything stacks up pretty evenly. The Chiefs have a bit of an advantage in common opponent record and the Bills have an advantage in net points. 

 

So, yes, it may just come down to home field advantage and Bills Mafia, as the Chiefs are slightly worse on the road and the Bills are a bit better at home.

 

 

 

 

Thanks for digging up the stats on this.....let’s hope the home field advantage puts the Bills over the top!

 

Go Bills!!!

[SaulGoodman]

13 hours ago, Special K said:

Maybe I am mistaken, but I thought I heard one of the talking heads say that the Chiefs D is way better at home than they are on the road.

 

Sort of like the Browns D.

 

 

KC's D has allowed a little over 14 ppg at home and 17.6 away from home. 

 

The score in Denver is misleading. KC's offense turned it over 5 times and gave them really short fields all day. Denver finished with 240 yds and 3.7 yds per play. 

 

I'd say the Packers game is the only one in which the opponent moved the ball fairly consistently. KC was down their top two linebackers that day though. 

[dakrider]

Allen and Cook have to play well and Bills have to be able to score.  I think Bills have to score at least 17 points in first half and can't be down more than 7. if Bills punter has a busy day, this is going to be a long game.

[Big Turk]

One is mostly healthy and the other isn't...that's the issue.

[folz]

2 hours ago, Utah John said:

Considering all the injuries, looking at statistics from the regular season is not really definitive.  (You listed the London game against the Jags as an away game but the NFL considered it a home game for the Bills.  Probably the best way to handle that game is to not include it in the stats.)  I think the last month of the regular season is a better indicator than what happened in September and October, but even that is suspect because the teams' makeup is so different now.  What matters is what the players and coaches involved tomorrow bring to the field.

 

I hear you...

 

-though there is no way the Jax game can be called a home game for the Bills (no matter what the NFL called it). The Bills were not at home, they had to travel/deal with time change; while the Jags play in London every year, had already been there for two weeks (no time change issue/no travel, days before the game), and had just played a game in that stadium the week before. Even though the Jags weren't home either, they definitely had a home field advantage, as it were.

 

And ok, down the stretch:

The Bills have played six games since the start of December and are 6-0, with 101 points scored against (16.8/game), and a +53 point differential

KC has played seven games since the start of December and are 4-3, with 120 points scored against (17.1/game), and a +21 point differential

 

The teams had two common opponents over that stretch (The Dolphins and the Pats)

Bills were 2-0 with a +13 point differential

Chiefs were 2-0 with a +29 point differential

 

Current Injuries to starters or role players (and I'm not counting players like Tre and Matt Milano because their injuries were too long ago to be discussed as far as who the teams are now or who they have been down the stretch):

[snap counts in parentheses]

Bills: Benford (76.87%), Davis (82.99%), Rapp (39.27%) [OUT]; Bernard (93.19%), Douglas (46.92%), Johnson (89.29%) [QUESTIONABLE]

Chiefs: Wanya Morris (30.01%), Derrick Nnadi (45.77%), Skyy Moore (43.81%) [OUT]; Justin Ross (12.04%), Kadarius Toney (20.35%) [QUESTIONABLE]

 

No question, we are missing more KEY guys (more snaps) than the Chiefs. But, if Bernard, Douglas, and Johnson can go (and aren't hampered too much), then I think we are in pretty good shape. I think Dane and Kaair can fill in fine for Benford against Kansas City's wide receiver corps (which is also a little banged up), and we can get by without Davis and Rapp, as the team has already proven to be able to do (though it would be nice to have them---Davis in the run game (not just as a receiver), and Rapp to help with Kelce and to lay some lumber). 

 

But, if we are also missing any or all of the other three, it will be a tougher go, no doubt. I think we are the better overall team (and have been down the stretch of the season), but we are dealing with more significant injuries than the Chiefs are.

 

Make of that what you will.

 

 

Edited January 20 by folz

[ChrisWatson#21]

Watching that 2021 divisional replay and man what a huge upgrade this defensive line is from that team.  Mahomes clowned that defensive line running around in circles all game.  If the Bills can get pressure with just four like they have been able to this season that should be the difference.

[MiracleAtRich1393]

16 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

  Chiefs finished 2nd in scoring and 4th against the pass but they are the 17th rated D against the run. 

  For comparison Bills D finished 4th in scoring and 7th against the pass and where a couple spots ahead of the Chiefs at 15th against the run.

 

This game more than likely will come down to Mahomes and Pacheco against Allen and Cook and who controls the clock. As both teams are very good at limiting explosive plays down field. 

Good thing that 15th rank against the rush has a lot of data without DaQuan in there. I'm so glad we have him back this year unlike the Cincy disaster against the run last year. He can control the line of scrimmage and we'll need him to. Mafia needs to be going berzerk all night too, Mahomes should not be able to hear himself think, audible communication should be nearly impossible. False starts every other drive putting them in a hole. LFGGGGGG

[Thrivefourfive]

Yes! Perfect game plan these days is to get off to a fast start and hold on with that defense. So I want the Bills to wake up earlier, get to the field of play earlier for warming up, and be absolutely peaking at kickoff. Let some other team figure out how to mount a comeback in the game. <<< this is a winning formula for THIS Bills team. That should be their identity. 

[Utah John]

11 hours ago, folz said:

 

I hear you...

 

-though there is no way the Jax game can be called a home game for the Bills (no matter what the NFL called it). The Bills were not at home, they had to travel/deal with time change; while the Jags play in London every year, had already been there for two weeks (no time change issue/no travel, days before the game), and had just played a game in that stadium the week before. Even though the Jags weren't home either, they definitely had a home field advantage, as it were.

 

And ok, down the stretch:

The Bills have played six games since the start of December and are 6-0, with 101 points scored against (16.8/game), and a +53 point differential

KC has played seven games since the start of December and are 4-3, with 120 points scored against (17.1/game), and a +21 point differential

 

The teams had two common opponents over that stretch (The Dolphins and the Pats)

Bills were 2-0 with a +13 point differential

Chiefs were 2-0 with a +29 point differential

 

Current Injuries to starters or role players (and I'm not counting players like Tre and Matt Milano because their injuries were too long ago to be discussed as far as who the teams are now or who they have been down the stretch):

[snap counts in parentheses]

Bills: Benford (76.87%), Davis (82.99%), Rapp (39.27%) [OUT]; Bernard (93.19%), Douglas (46.92%), Johnson (89.29%) [QUESTIONABLE]

Chiefs: Wanya Morris (30.01%), Derrick Nnadi (45.77%), Skyy Moore (43.81%) [OUT]; Justin Ross (12.04%), Kadarius Toney (20.35%) [QUESTIONABLE]

 

No question, we are missing more KEY guys (more snaps) than the Chiefs. But, if Bernard, Douglas, and Johnson can go (and aren't hampered too much), then I think we are in pretty good shape. I think Dane and Kaair can fill in fine for Benford against Kansas City's wide receiver corps (which is also a little banged up), and we can get by without Davis and Rapp, as the team has already proven to be able to do (though it would be nice to have them---Davis in the run game (not just as a receiver), and Rapp to help with Kelce and to lay some lumber). 

 

But, if we are also missing any or all of the other three, it will be a tougher go, no doubt. I think we are the better overall team (and have been down the stretch of the season), but we are dealing with more significant injuries than the Chiefs are.

 

Make of that what you will.

 

 

Thanks for the updated version.  It will be a great game.