Compared to other QBs, JA dominates in December and January

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Again, who in the top 5 in rushing TD's at QB has gone onto to win the Super Bowl? Now look at who the Top 5 in passing TD's has. It's basically every season. Rushing TD's just don't mean as much. 

 

You're misevaluating the data. Passing TDs will always out pace rushing TDs. That is why QBs who rank top 5 in rushing TDs do not necessarily end up winning in the playoffs, while top 5 in passing TDs generally do. That does not mean rushing TDs are less valuable than passing TDs. It means total TDs are what ultimately matter regardless of how you get there.

 

You're trying to argue that two plays which each create 6 points are somehow not equal in value. Occam's razor...

 

Edited January 20, 2024 by HappyDays

[Mikie2times]

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

You're misevaluating the data. Passing TDs will always out pace rushing TDs. That is why QBs who rank top 5 in rushing TDs do not necessarily end up winning in the playoffs, while top 5 in passing TDs generally do. That does not mean rushing TDs are less valuable than passing TDs. It means total TDs are what ultimately matter regardless of how you get there.

 

You're trying to argue that two plays which each create 6 points are somehow not equal in value. Occam's razor...

 

 

So you want to look at the data as a % TD's?

 

Actually, lets say, top 10 total TD's on the year and among that 10, top 3 % of those TD's from rushing TD's. How do you think that will play out? 

 

Edited January 20, 2024 by Mikie2times

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

 

So you want to look at the data as a % TD's?

 

 

No. Because it doesnt matter. Total TDs. That's it.

[Mikie2times]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

No. Because it doesnt matter. Total TDs. That's it.

When was the last time a QB won the Super Bowl with more than 10% of the total TD's coming on the ground regardless of how many TD's? They can have a thousand for all I care. 

[Punch]

6 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

When was the last time a QB won the Super Bowl with more than 10% of the total TD's coming on the ground regardless of how many TD's? They can have a thousand for all I care. 

Allen is 4th in TD passes this season, and 3 away from 2nd most. Why does the fact that he also scored a bunch of rushing TDs negatively impact the odds of winning the Super Bowl? 

[Mikie2times]

Just now, Punch said:

Allen is 4th in TD passes this season, and 3 away from 2nd most. Why does the fact that he also scored a bunch of rushing TDs negatively impact the odds of winning the Super Bowl? 

I think a better question to ask is why do QB's who have above average rushing production not win the Super Bowl? My guess would be it's easier to take away the legs than the arm and if that is a big contributor to what you do it can really hurt productivity. Allen is probably as hybrid as we have seen but my argument was not that Allen can't do it, I hope to hell he can. It's that I don't value his rushing production the same as passing production.  If it was done with his arm he would go into a statistical group that is responsible for every win in modern Super Bowl history.  As it stands he's part of a group that can't win one. Hurts almost changed that.  Allen has as good a chance as any. 

[HappyDays]

18 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

When was the last time a QB won the Super Bowl with more than 10% of the total TD's coming on the ground regardless of how many TD's? They can have a thousand for all I care. 

 

3 TDs now, on behalf of Lamar's legs.

 

The question you're asking is irrelevant.

[Punch]

9 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I think a better question to ask is why do QB's who have above average rushing production not win the Super Bowl? My guess would be it's easier to take away the legs than the arm and if that is a big contributor to what you do it can really hurt productivity. Allen is probably as hybrid as we have seen but my argument was not that Allen can't do it, I hope to hell he can. It's that I don't value his rushing production the same as passing production.  If it was done with his arm he would go into a statistical group that is responsible for every win in modern Super Bowl history.  As it stands he's part of a group that can't win one. Hurts almost changed that.  Allen has as good a chance as any. 

The sample size of NFL QBs who are great runners is small enough that it reduces the already long odds of any niche group winning a Super Bowl. Mobility and escapability, on the other hand, have long been important traits for great QBs, many of whom have won Super Bowls.

 

You're arbitrarily picking a statistic that doesn't necessarily correlate due to the historically small sample, especially in light of how the NFL is changing.

 

[Mikie2times]

3 minutes ago, Punch said:

The sample size of NFL QBs who are great runners is small enough that it reduces the already long odds of any niche group winning a Super Bowl. Mobility and escapability, on the other hand, have long been important traits for great QBs, many of whom have won Super Bowls.

 

You're arbitrarily picking a statistic that doesn't necessarily correlate due to the historically small sample, especially in light of how the NFL is changing.

 

Mobility and escapability when not being converted into rushing output would benefit passing output. I'm just using what history exists in the league. What you say might end up being true eventually but why should you or anybody else be the one that determines it's true before it actually is? 

Edited January 21, 2024 by Mikie2times

[Punch]

Just now, Mikie2times said:

Mobility and escapability when not being converted into rushing output would benefit passing output. I'm just using what history exists in the league. What you say might end up being true eventually but why should you or anybody else be the one that determines it's true before it actually is? 

You're the one making declarations.

 

I'm saying it's arbitrary for you to make those declarations but especially considering the evidence throughout the current NFL. I'm not trying to predict the future, its happening now.

[Mikie2times]

1 hour ago, Punch said:

You're the one making declarations.

 

I'm saying it's arbitrary for you to make those declarations but especially considering the evidence throughout the current NFL. I'm not trying to predict the future, its happening now.

This isn't that complicated

 

Player A : 29 TD and 19 INT with 15 rushing TD 

Player B:  44 TD and 19 INT

 

Player B wins everyday and twice on Sunday. It's not even a conversation.

 

What is happening now? This is the top 10 total touchdown leaders at QB every year since 2019 and I can take this back as long as you want. Show me the Super Bowl winner who has a high % of his TD's from rushing? Every winner is under 10%. So yes, if I have the option of player A's output vs player B's, I'm going with the one that produced the Super Bowl winners every year in modern NFL history. I know, I'm crazy. 

 

 

Edited January 21, 2024 by Mikie2times

[Punch]

7 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

This isn't that complicated

I know. You're picking an arbitrary statistical threshold that you've decided means something it doesn't. It's leading you to waste your Saturday night.

[julian]

I like QBs who score lots of points, they tend to win more often than those who don’t.

[Mikie2times]

44 minutes ago, Punch said:

I know. You're picking an arbitrary statistical threshold that you've decided means something it doesn't. It's leading you to waste your Saturday night.

The conversation is about rushing TD's not being an impactful as passing TD's. I went with Top 5 rushing TD's each year and that was not ok. So what method do you want use to say this QB's production is skewed more towards rushing than passing on average? Whatever arbitrary way you want to do this exercise will produce the exact same result.  

Edited January 21, 2024 by Mikie2times

[Southern_Bills]

On 1/18/2024 at 10:04 PM, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

That seems unreal given how Mahomes has played deeper into the playoffs each year, but there it is! We do indeed have something special cooking at QB…

 

I believe deep down when Mahomes and Allen wrap up their career Allen will come out on top, he's the better QB hands down IMO.

[schoolhouserock]

On 1/19/2024 at 9:15 AM, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Josh Allen doesn’t play defense 

…yet…