What is your gut telling you right now?

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

I was jittery and nervous at the start, but I am settling in. I feel good. I will probably lay some money down.

 

The talking heads are talking about the past. But this is brand new. The Chiefs offense hasn't been magic BS as in years past. Their D is good (not underestimating them) but the data shows that they do so well when they use the crowd noise in Arrowhead combined with aggressive blitzes from Spags. Now, the crowd noise is on the other side with Mahomes using lesser receivers and Brady has dusted off a bunch of blitz beaters to counter what everyone started throwing after the Chiefs game. 

 

It's not easy. My heart will be hammering all game. But this time, the Bills are the more talented team playing in their house. And Mahommes has never tasted Bills Mafia on the road in his career. 

 

I think this is the year we do it.

[Bob Jones]

Could be a statement win, or Bills could revert to "bad Bills" and get embarrassed. No way to tell, really, until Sunday night. Too much inconsistency this year.

[FilthyBeast]

Gut feeling has told me for sometime this would be a loss if they should meet again in the playoffs.

 

Unfortunately though I've been trying to fend off the same crippling anxiety I had prior to the 2020 AFCCG, 2021/2022 divisional (nausea, borderline panic attacks, digestive issues, dread, heart palpipations, etc).

 

I would love to be wrong because I do believe this Bills team will go the distance if they solve the Chiefs puzzle, but Mahomes is who he is....a Jason Voorhees/Michael Myers type creature and there's a reason he's only even lost 3 playoff games (Brady x2, Burrow) and 2 of those ended in overtime.

 

One last point, I think for all the Allen/Mahomes story lines...some folks don't realize how historically good this Chiefs defense is this year....a true elite unit across the board, and for me this is the real reason why I feel the Chiefs win (possibly big) because elite defense like this always travel well and this unit is so much better than what we've seen in years past which they seem to be average in the regular season but take it to another level in the postseason like the Patriots/Brady teams of years past.

[juno999]

I feel good about the game.  The Bills are beat up on D but the Chiefs are too.  Their run stopping DT Derrick Nnadi has a triceps injury and may miss the game.  Also CB L'Jarius Sneed is dealing with a calf injury.  He usually covers Diggs.

[CookieG]

I don't trust my gut.  My gut can tell me, "that fried chicken smells really good."  The next day my gut tells me "why the hell did you eat that fried chicken?!"

 

On paper, this is a really, really, close match up.  The Chiefs have 57 sacks, the Bills lead the league in fewest sacks allowed.  I have some confidence the Bills coaching staff figures out how to protect better than the regular season game and/or gives Josh more quick outlet passes. And Josh is going to run more when  protection breaks down.  

 

Getting a few people back on D is going to be vital, Dodson and Douglas coming back, if they play,  will be huge. I'm not as worried about Kelsey getting some passes, he's going to get his catches,   its the others, esp. Pacheco and RIce who worry me more.

 

Bad Josh needs to stay home...last week's Josh needs to continue.   Find his play makers, let them do their thing.  Lock him in the film room the rest of the week and force him to watch Chiefs games.  Let him figure out where the blitzes are coming from.  He'll find a ***** in their D. Don't force a bad decision. 

 

 

 

[PayDaBill$]

Injuries are a colossal concern, & as is playing mistake free football. Patty and Mr Swift are always dangerous and will definitely take advantage of any mistakes we make.

 

We always seem to play the Chefs close and we’re home. So I expect a good game but tightly contested.

 

 

[PBF81]

My gut's telling me that this is an incredibly winable game against a team that's incredibly overrated.  

 

To start, the Chiefs have been playing .500 ball since the last weekend in October.  

Their offense has averaged 20 PPG over that stretch.  

They've beaten only one playoff team, Miami, despite having beaten them twice, which probably says more about Miami than it does about KC.  

Of their 6 losses, three were against playoff teams (GB, Detroit, Buffalo) and the other three were against bubble playoff teams.  

 

If our offense is schemed properly and we take advantage of matchups and adjust accordingly, not merely at the half, but in-game, there's no reason why we cannot hit the 30 mark.  The Packers hung 27 on them and we're better offensively, when we choose to be, than they are.  

 

Bothering me is that in the Pitt game it seemed as is up by 11 in a game very much still in play, it seemed as if we went into run-the-clock-out mode in the middle of the 3rd.  

 

Our team is solid.  We've won one Divisional Round game in 7 seasons under McD.  If anything prevents us from winning this one it'll be coaching as McD is going up against one of the best coaches in the game today.  

 

Offense is our strength, particularly now with some injuries on D.  The DL is fine and our secondary's been banged up to one extent or another for two seasons now.  It's the LBs and they're questionable, but either way, Klein comes in as well.  Not a great matchup for Kelce, but as I've pointed out all season, Kelce at 34 would begin to diminish and the WRs that KC has are JAGs other than for Rice who's come on, but is still a rookie.  He's good, but far from great.  KC depends wildly upon Pacheco playing well to win.  

 

Furthermore, KC is 3-5 when they allow 118+ rushing.  1-3 when they allow more than 123.  

 

If we can't get 150 yards rushing with Cook having come off a decent game vs. Pitt and Allen, it would be stunning.  

 

With our fans being rabid, I see a repeat of the '91 season playoff game where DeBerg couldn't hear himself think.  

 

... again, assuming that Brady/McD don't shell-up once we get a marginal lead.  

 

 

 

 

[FireChans]

16 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Can you just tell me yes so I can feel even more better about this game?

My gut told me to put a considerable amount of money on the Bills winning the AFCE and the AFC, along with the Texans to win the AFCS, when the Bills were 6-6.

 

I did just that. 
 

so the answer is yes.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I was much more pessimistic about the Bengals last year. 
 

I felt sick to my stomach all week last year, I knew we were going to get rocked.

 

This game, right now, just laser focused on the practice report and who is going to tape it up and try to play in this game. 
 

The Bills know what’s on the line and how big this game is. I think guys are going to do everything they can to get back.

 

And last week McDermott was willing to let things go into the weekend on Douglas and Dodson so that tells me they understand the urgency and are willing to take it to the 12th hour.

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, FireChans said:

My gut told me to put a considerable amount of money on the Bills winning the AFCE and the AFC, along with the Texans to win the AFCS, when the Bills were 6-6.

 

I did just that. 
 

so the answer is yes.

 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

My gut's telling me that this is an incredibly winable game against a team that's incredibly overrated.  

 

To start, the Chiefs have been playing .500 ball since the last weekend in October.  

Their offense has averaged 20 PPG over that stretch.  

They've beaten only one playoff team, Miami, despite having beaten them twice, which probably says more about Miami than it does about KC.  

Of their 6 losses, three were against playoff teams (GB, Detroit, Buffalo) and the other three were against bubble playoff teams.  

 

If our offense is schemed properly and we take advantage of matchups and adjust accordingly, not merely at the half, but in-game, there's no reason why we cannot hit the 30 mark.  The Packers hung 27 on them and we're better offensively, when we choose to be, than they are.  

 

Bothering me is that in the Pitt game it seemed as is up by 11 in a game very much still in play, it seemed as if we went into run-the-clock-out mode in the middle of the 3rd.  

 

Our team is solid.  We've won one Divisional Round game in 7 seasons under McD.  If anything prevents us from winning this one it'll be coaching as McD is going up against one of the best coaches in the game today.  

 

Offense is our strength, particularly now with some injuries on D.  The DL is fine and our secondary's been banged up to one extent or another for two seasons now.  It's the LBs and they're questionable, but either way, Klein comes in as well.  Not a great matchup for Kelce, but as I've pointed out all season, Kelce at 34 would begin to diminish and the WRs that KC has are JAGs other than for Rice who's come on, but is still a rookie.  He's good, but far from great.  KC depends wildly upon Pacheco playing well to win.  

 

Furthermore, KC is 3-5 when they allow 118+ rushing.  1-3 when they allow more than 123.  

 

If we can't get 150 yards rushing with Cook having come off a decent game vs. Pitt and Allen, it would be stunning.  

 

With our fans being rabid, I see a repeat of the '91 season playoff game where DeBerg couldn't hear himself think.  

 

... again, assuming that Brady/McD don't shell-up once we get a marginal lead.  

 

 

 

 

The Bills and Chiefs are kind of Jekyll and Hyde imo when it comes to their warts.

 

My prediction is whatever team starts the hottest will win. 
 

Similar to Steelers, the Chiefs don’t really have the horses to comeback down double digits. But honestly, not sure the Bills do either unless Josh plays out of his mind.

 

If the Chiefs get up 10-0 early or even 7-0 on their second possession after we go three and out, I will feel extremely nervous. Conversely, if we get a 10 point lead early, I think we win the game going away. 

[stlbills13]

17 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Klein and D. Williams have to come to play, they are key to stopping Kelce, the running game, and the underhand passes.

 

I am concerned that we probably have to waste 1 of our 2 callups on a punter. 

 

And if Davis is out, our 2 callups could be Isabella and Hauck. You have to consider IR for Martin or Davis IMO

[BigDingus]

My gut feeling is pure anxiety.

 

I want us to win, I think we SHOULD win, I think we have the better team, but the thought of a 3rd playoff loss to the Chiefs makes me physically uncomfortable. 

 

And it's not the normal anxiety of a potential loss, it's an added, empathetic, more acute stress for Josh & his reputation.

 

We all love him, we'll defend him, but get used to hearing everyone else label him a choke artist. The "turnover machine" moniker is bad enough, but he will no longer get the benefit of the doubt from other fan bases or the media.

 

Nothing he accomplishes will ever be enough, will always be fighting a losing battle in public perception, be ranked a tier lower than other elite QBs, etc... which will affect his chances of ever winning MVP or other accolades that impact his legacy. 😢

[McMuffin]

We have three opponents on this Sunday.

1. Ourselves

2. The Chiefs

3. The refs

My gut says we win but it’s going to go the full distance.

[Ralonzo]

33 minutes ago, Sundo91 said:

The passing of the torch. Just like Hogan to The Rock at Wrestlemania.

 

Go Bills!

 

Did anyone catch Brandt on GMFB drawing the Mahomes v Allen analogy to Brady v Manning? The reputation was sealed when Brady beat Manning the playoffs the first 2 times he faced him - with the caveat that both were at home. The next 3 times they faced off in the playoffs, it was Manning at home and he went 3-0 vs Brady. Still the reputation persists falsely to this day that Brady owned Manning.

[CSBill]

My Gut? I feel good about this one. Won't be easy, but I think the crowd and home field will make the difference.

[Bills!Win!]

The chiefs lost at home to the raiders. I shouldn’t be worried, right? 

[section122]

It just feels like a bills win.

 

This is their time!

[Craig Oi]

I'm feeling good about this one...It's our time...Bills win.

 

[Captain Hindsight]

This is the week Mahomes gets the label he can't win on the road in the playoffs