Divisional Round, Chefs v. Bills - PREDICT THE SCORE

[Heavy Kevi]

31-23 Bills

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

I forgot to give my pick 😂. I think y’all are points crazy…I don’t really see either team hitting 30.  I’m goin. 24-21 bills.  Another suspiciously perfect over/under pick by Vegas at 45.5 lol 

 

tough to pick without knowing 100% taron is playing though. Bills could win a comfy low 2 scorer with him in there.  

Edited January 21 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[newcam2012]

I've though long and hard about this. To say I'm nervous about this game is an understatement. I know it's only football but this seems bigger than that. The history between the teams, David chasing Goliath, changing of the guard, coach vs coach, Allen vs Mahomes, and the home crowd Bills Mafia. It doesn't get any better than this. 

 

I can't fathom a Bills loss. I just can't allow my brain to go there. Call me crazy, dumb, a troll, or a homer. 

 

Bills 23

KC 20

[billsfan89]

I am not gonna predict the score but I think this is a one-possession game either way. These teams are so good and both playoff-hardened. It's just gonna come down to if the Bills can keep the turnovers down to 0-1, can Bass and the special teams make the plays they "should" make, and can the defense make a big play or two in a critical moment. If the special teams can be a net neutral (not make any turnovers, not let up any big returns, punt decently and Bass just makes the kicks 40 yards and under at a minimum) and the offense makes 0-1 turnovers while the defense gets a clutch sack or turnover late in the game I think the Bills can pull this off. 

[SydneyBillsFan]

Assuming that Bernard is out, but Douglas and Johnson both play:

 

Bills 27

Chiefs 24

 

If Johnson is out:

 

Bills 27

Chiefs 31

[Zerovoltz]

I've read through all of these.... I'll give a score, but want to give a few observations first -

 

KC hasn't given up more than 27 to a team all year....including to the Bills who got 20 in KC on a day when the Bills were +1 in TO margin.  I see alot of score predictions in the 30's for the Bills.  

 

The Chiefs were 7-1 in games where the TO margin was equal or better.  The only loss was week 1 against Detroit by 1 point.  

In games where KC was Even or better in TO margin, KC had a +91 point differential.

 

In games where the Bills were Even or Better in TO margin, the Bills had a +203 point differential.  That was the case in 9 games.  

 

Of the Bills 5 losses, they were minus in TO ratio in 4 of those.  They were +1 in the OT loss to the Eagles.

 

Of the Chiefs 5 Losses they were minus in TO ratio in 4 of those, and even in the other one (the loss to the Lions)

 

Turnovers are a big factor in this game needless to say.

 

 

In games where KC did not turn the ball over at all on offense they averaged 29 points a game, but this only happened twice all year.  

 

In games where the Bills did not turn the ball over at all on offense, they averaged 39 points a game, but this was only 3 games 

 

Both teams had exactly 28 Turnovers by their offense/Special teams.

 

The Bills were second in the NFL in takeaways with 30.

 

KC was 27th with only 17.

 

The winner will be EVEN OR BETTER in TO margin.  Stats for the season favor the Bills in this regard.

 

 

In 4 out of the 5 Bills losses they were held to under 100 yards rushing as a team.  The other loss The Bills had 4 TO to Denver but rushed for 192 as a team.

 

There is no pattern to KC rushing yards and W/L.  

 

KC has a good overall D, but it's average at best stopping the run.  Some of this is do in part to KC simply committing to stopping the pass but it's not a good run D.

 

To win KC will need to keep the Bills, as a team, under 120 at most.

 

 

Ok, that said, the above items should be playing into the Bills favor, BUT.....The injuries a really rough here for the Bills.

 

The 3 big ones -

 

Benford - KC has suffered badly from poor WR play this year but that SEEMS to have been somewhat fixed by going with an approach where you don't target the bad guys as much and target the good guys more often.  Rice has emerged.  Mising a key CB won't help, and will likely be something KC will try to exploit.

 

Davis - KC has been incredibly successful eliminating teams No.1 WR all year.  Diggs is going to be bottled up.

 

Bernard - I understand he's a gametime decision.  It's hard to cut on sprained ankles even if he goes.  I won't be surprised to see KC roll with a ton of 2 and 3 TE sets trying to get the Bills LB's out on the field.

 

KC isn't missing anyone of consequence.  Big edge to KC on injuries.

 

The injuries pretty well cover what I think KC will do when on offense VS the Bills D....so when the Bills have the ball, KC is going to leverage their fast, athletic LB corps.

 

As in the first matchup, there will be a LB (most likely Willie Gay) being used to spy Allen the whole game.  All rushed 10 times for 32 yards with a long of 8 in the regular season matchup.  With no Gabe Davis, KC might also try and clamp down a bit more on the backs coming out into the pattern more aggressively.  No WR other than Diggs will bother KC and he'll find himself in alot of man coverage while KC works to keep the TE's contained.  If Knox and Kincaid can be held in check, and KC can effectively limit Allen with a LB spy, then the running game of the Bills is the key to cracking the KC D.  KC D isn't that good against the run.  

 

Getting out to a lead will be important for KC to compel the Bills to pass more.

 

Bills conventional run game will be key

 

Ok...that all said... I also think there is a degree of all the pressure being on the Bills....they finally get this matchup in Orchard Park, with an electric loud crowd.  Probalby will help get a false start or 2 but I think the Bills, if they get behind, will have the pressure of knowing that big cap related roster changes are coming this offseason, and like Tiger Woods  on a Sunday in a major, lurking, the idea Mahomes is on the sideline, if the game is close, the idea he's over there might get in their heads.  

 

If there weren't the injuries, I'd be inclined to take the Bills in this game.  KC is a rough matchup for the Bills even when they are healthy.  I think KC has "flipped the switch" now that the post season is here, they are healthy and don't have the pressure of being in some sort of window trying to get 1 Lombardi.  

 

All this factored in -

 

KC 26, Bills 24.

 

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, Zerovoltz said:

I've read through all of these.... I'll give a score, but want to give a few observations first -

 

KC hasn't given up more than 27 to a team all year....including to the Bills who got 20 in KC on a day when the Bills were +1 in TO margin.  I see alot of score predictions in the 30's for the Bills.  

 

The Chiefs were 7-1 in games where the TO margin was equal or better.  The only loss was week 1 against Detroit by 1 point.  

In games where KC was Even or better in TO margin, KC had a +91 point differential.

 

In games where the Bills were Even or Better in TO margin, the Bills had a +203 point differential.  That was the case in 9 games.  

 

Of the Bills 5 losses, they were minus in TO ratio in 4 of those.  They were +1 in the OT loss to the Eagles.

 

Of the Chiefs 5 Losses they were minus in TO ratio in 4 of those, and even in the other one (the loss to the Lions)

 

Turnovers are a big factor in this game needless to say.

 

 

In games where KC did not turn the ball over at all on offense they averaged 29 points a game, but this only happened twice all year.  

 

In games where the Bills did not turn the ball over at all on offense, they averaged 39 points a game, but this was only 3 games 

 

Both teams had exactly 28 Turnovers by their offense/Special teams.

 

The Bills were second in the NFL in takeaways with 30.

 

KC was 27th with only 17.

 

The winner will be EVEN OR BETTER in TO margin.  Stats for the season favor the Bills in this regard.

 

 

In 4 out of the 5 Bills losses they were held to under 100 yards rushing as a team.  The other loss The Bills had 4 TO to Denver but rushed for 192 as a team.

 

There is no pattern to KC rushing yards and W/L.  

 

KC has a good overall D, but it's average at best stopping the run.  Some of this is do in part to KC simply committing to stopping the pass but it's not a good run D.

 

To win KC will need to keep the Bills, as a team, under 120 at most.

 

 

Ok, that said, the above items should be playing into the Bills favor, BUT.....The injuries a really rough here for the Bills.

 

The 3 big ones -

 

Benford - KC has suffered badly from poor WR play this year but that SEEMS to have been somewhat fixed by going with an approach where you don't target the bad guys as much and target the good guys more often.  Rice has emerged.  Mising a key CB won't help, and will likely be something KC will try to exploit.

 

Davis - KC has been incredibly successful eliminating teams No.1 WR all year.  Diggs is going to be bottled up.

 

Bernard - I understand he's a gametime decision.  It's hard to cut on sprained ankles even if he goes.  I won't be surprised to see KC roll with a ton of 2 and 3 TE sets trying to get the Bills LB's out on the field.

 

KC isn't missing anyone of consequence.  Big edge to KC on injuries.

 

The injuries pretty well cover what I think KC will do when on offense VS the Bills D....so when the Bills have the ball, KC is going to leverage their fast, athletic LB corps.

 

As in the first matchup, there will be a LB (most likely Willie Gay) being used to spy Allen the whole game.  All rushed 10 times for 32 yards with a long of 8 in the regular season matchup.  With no Gabe Davis, KC might also try and clamp down a bit more on the backs coming out into the pattern more aggressively.  No WR other than Diggs will bother KC and he'll find himself in alot of man coverage while KC works to keep the TE's contained.  If Knox and Kincaid can be held in check, and KC can effectively limit Allen with a LB spy, then the running game of the Bills is the key to cracking the KC D.  KC D isn't that good against the run.  

 

Getting out to a lead will be important for KC to compel the Bills to pass more.

 

Bills conventional run game will be key

 

Ok...that all said... I also think there is a degree of all the pressure being on the Bills....they finally get this matchup in Orchard Park, with an electric loud crowd.  Probalby will help get a false start or 2 but I think the Bills, if they get behind, will have the pressure of knowing that big cap related roster changes are coming this offseason, and like Tiger Woods  on a Sunday in a major, lurking, the idea Mahomes is on the sideline, if the game is close, the idea he's over there might get in their heads.  

 

If there weren't the injuries, I'd be inclined to take the Bills in this game.  KC is a rough matchup for the Bills even when they are healthy.  I think KC has "flipped the switch" now that the post season is here, they are healthy and don't have the pressure of being in some sort of window trying to get 1 Lombardi.  

 

All this factored in -

 

KC 26, Bills 24.

 

You literally blew all your good graces here bro

 

And I'm not judging you... Just letting you know you walked into the heart of one of the most passionate fan bases in all of world sports

 

And they think you hoodwinked them

 

You have zero clout man... You are now a joke

 

You made your bed

 

You honestly gave Chiefs fans a bad name because you came here dishonestly , to stir the pot

 

And when Josh Allen finishes his career as a better football player than Patrick mahomes... When he's hurtling over your Chiefs today

 

Remember when you came here to troll the most passionate fan base in sports

 

More passionate than your trail of tears Chiefs..  this isn't sports

 

The Buffalo Bills are life to Western New York

 

And it's 5am and I'm tagging you @Zerovoltz 

 

I went down to Kansas City for a week of my life and embrace their town and their people and they were amazing... They treated me like I was one of their own

 

But you can come here and discreetly diss us

 

That be like if I went down to Kansas City and told everyone how Patrick mahomes is a bum.. and he's living off the coattails of the referees and Andy Reid

 

Dude has trash mechanics... Is a whiner... Wishes he was as big and strong as fast as Josh Allen

 

And the Kansas City Chiefs are going down today at 630... Going down like a clown James Brown

Edited January 21 by Buffalo716

[Freddie's Dead]

@Zerovoltz is fine, he can post here anytime.

[Nextmanup]

Bills       24

Chiefs   20

 

 

On 1/18/2024 at 10:11 AM, zow2 said:

I've flipped around on this but settling on a game where the Chiefs have no idea what is about to hit them, playing in raucous OP with a super motivated and tenacious Bills team.   

 

Buffalo 34

Chiefs  17

That would be my dream come true; I don't get the feeling that's anything like how it's going to go though.

 

Mahomes has played in many games bigger than this one, not at home.  They're called Super Bowls.  

 

He's also played in plenty of big games on the road with hostile noise; it's not like he's in his second year.

 

He'll be fine.  It's gonna be lower scoring than people think, and it's gonna be a dogfight.

 

 

[Baba Booey]

We finally beat the Chiefs, in the playoffs. 24-20

Edited January 21 by Baba Booey

[WyoAZBillfan]

Buffalo-52

 Chiefs-10

Mahomes leaves the game early, Kelce weakened from last nights Swifty extravaganza is unable to help the flailing O. This makes today one of the finest Buffalo Bills football moments (until February when they bring home the SB victory) ever.

Edited January 21 by WyoAZBillfan

[cantankerous]

Bills 27

Chiefs 23

[Buffalo716]

6 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

@Zerovoltz is fine, he can post here anytime.

Sure anybody can post anytime they want

 

That doesn't mean he didn't get into bad graces of tons of people on this site... Look at his last thread and look at everybody who told him they no longer consider him anything other than a troll now

Edited January 21 by Buffalo716

[Mister Defense]

Bills 30, chefs 20

 

The offense continues to improve and become even more consistent.  A big game from Knox? He has played well with more limited targets this season, but is due for a big game now.  And that opens it up even more for Kincaid and Shakir.  If true, then Diggs may light them up, against expectations, in the second half.

 

And an unexpected player, such as Harty, makes some big plays in the passing game, something the Bills have not explored very much this year at all.  Now  is the time. The Bills need to do the unexpected this week (and the next two games after this) to keep developing their passing game.

 

Would love to see Johnson and Murray get more carries on this cold day, making Cook even more effective for his touches, as they can better physically wear down the defense.

 

I Know Bernard is out, but the D line makes up for it and has their best game of the year, which is saying a lot.

 

And the 12th man have maybe their finest moment, by never letting up, and losing their voices for days, making up for the missing players.

 

Every time the other team's defense has been glorified this year the Bills' defense has been the one that makes the most noise.  Will be tougher today without  Benford, Bernard, Dotson-? but it's called home sweet home for a reason.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

Edited January 21 by Mister Defense

[Airseven]

Chiefs 27

Bills 31

[starrymessenger]

Bills 31

Chefs 20

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 1/17/2024 at 11:32 PM, Freddie's Dead said:

Congratulations again to the Wild Card Round winner @stuvian! 

 

This is the week we've wanted for years.  FInally, Pat the Rat and the Chefs will be in OUR house, instead of the Bills going to the Arrowhead Invitational.  The national media is talking about how Pat the Rat can cement his legacy by going on the road and winning a playoff game, which he's never done outside the Super Bowl.  The Bills, however, are going to use the insane atmosphere with Bills Mafia at Highmark to try to make Pat the Rat's day as miserable as possible.

 

With the defense down to the last man on the depth chart at LB and CB, Josh and the offense will have to run KC out the building.  If not, Pat the Rat will slice and dice the depleted D.  By necessity, this is going to be a track meet, and I see a big score.  Bet the ovaries.

 

Chefs - 32

Beews - 41

 

 

Past Winners

Week 1 - @JaCrispy

Week 2 - @Gary Marangi

Week 3 - @Nelius

Week 4 - @SoonerBillsFan

Week 5 - @BeavercreekBillsFan

Week 6 - @BuffaloBillies

Week 7 - @mead107

Week 8 - @Gregg and @kkim0904

Week 9 - @BuffaloBillyG

Week 10 - @Governor

Week 11 - @Over 29 years of fanhood

Week 12 - @frostbitmic

Week 14 - @Gregg (two-time winner!)

Week 15 - @Drew21PA

Week 16 - @Pine Barrens Mafia

Week 17 - @Realist and @entropyrules

Week 18 - @BuffaloBillies (two-time winner!)

Wild Card Round - @stuvian

Bills 34 - Chiefs 31

[Peace Frog]

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

  23

 

  13

[Freddie's Dead]

2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Sure anybody can post anytime they want

 

That doesn't mean he didn't get into bad graces of tons of people on this site... Look at his last thread and look at everybody who told him they no longer consider him anything other than a troll now

 

The fake slide thread was not his best moment.  But to throw away years of @Zerovoltz being a good poster over that post is an overreaction.  You may not have agreed with the content of his post above, but there was nothing trolling about it.  Some people just post the score, others will give their reasons.