Once and for all....PFFffffffft

[Buffalo716]

6 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

The NFL pays PFF for raw data. There has to be some merit to what they do. It is one evaluation system, a piece, not the gospel. 

Teams pay for their data.. they track advanced stats

 

Their grades are highly subjective because they do not know the play call

[BADOLBILZ]

30 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said:

Glad someone of Watt’s stature finally said it. 

 

 

JJ Watt is the consummate Meathead.   His stature is that he's a really big, steroid jacked up dude-schbag who had very few responsibilities in a defense and often eschewed those for free-lancing.

[Warcodered]

45 minutes ago, eball said:

Love this.  Many of us have been "skeptical" (I'm being kind) to the grading system PFF uses to assess NFL players. 

 

 

Were these coaches grades done by the amazing Texans team he played for or the Cardinals team he played on?

Edited January 17 by Warcodered

[MJS]

Wow! I'm a huge fan of JJ Watt now. Absolutely savage. I love it.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

52 minutes ago, eball said:

Love this.  Many of us have been "skeptical" (I'm being kind) to the grading system PFF uses to assess NFL players. 

 

 

Analytics is a tool. Like all tools, it can be useful in some situations and should not be relied upon for all of them. It can inform decisions, it should not be plugged in blindly.

[Scott7975]

26 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

The NFL pays PFF for raw data. There has to be some merit to what they do. It is one evaluation system, a piece, not the gospel. 

 

As I point out every time... teams are paying for far more than just player grades that the public has access to.  They likely don't give two damns about those grades.  They get things like formations, what plays are run out of those formations, tendency type of stats, and a vast array of things like that.  It helps them game plan faster.  In the past, I have put the link to the 100's of things teams get for their money but I don't feel like looking it up again.  Player grades are nothing.

[eball]

36 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Is this really surprising? 

You can have two NFL coaches grade a player completely differently.

Two GM's too.

That's why some will trade down in the draft and others will trade up to get the player that the other left there.

It doesn't mean PFF sucks. It means HIS coach graded it differently.

 

You really think some schmuck sitting at home "grading" a play when he doesn't know the play call or the individual player responsibilities is the same as a coach grading a play?

 

[BADOLBILZ]

26 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Teams pay for their data.. they track advanced stats

 

Their grades are highly subjective because they do not know the play call

 

 

Just like scouts grades.    Totally subjective because they do not know the play call.  

[eball]

9 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Analytics is a tool.

 

And so, according to some, is JJ Watt. 

[Einstein]

Just now, eball said:

 

You really think some schmuck sitting at home "grading" a play when he doesn't know the play call or the individual player responsibilities is the same as a coach grading a play?

 

You really think NFL teams would pay millions of dollars for useless data? The idea that you think it's some schmuck sitting at home is part of the problem.

 

PFF employs former NFL players, especially at Tier 2 and 3 of grading. The reason why PFF grades take a couple day to update after a game is because they are not graded by one player. It gets graded by a Tier 1 analyst, then a Tier 2 analyst, and then sometimes a Tier 3 analyst. 

People will often write "they don't know the play call". These people clearly think that football is rocket science. It's not. We can see on All-22 what the play is. Especially by mid season when teams are running the same plays over and over. And no, we do not accept the idea that maybe this particular team told their left tackle to get pancaked on a counter-run because the coach told him to. No, he just got beat. 

The other excuse is "teams pay for the data, not the grades". How do you think PFF grades the player? On the data!

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

21 minutes ago, Punch said:

Not PFF specific, but it seemed almost the entire analytics crowd hated Josh Allen when he was coming out of college. Now, by large, the analytics community is constantly defending him whereas most of the criticism he receives comes almost exclusively from former players and talking heads--- typically, the least informed sports commentators wrt anything but the most casual biased stereotypes.

The guys on Cover One had Aaron Schatz (the guy who invented DVOA) on to talk about this. For reference, I believe this was the guy who called Josh Allen "a parody of a QB prospect". His response was that, based on that data and trends, almost no prospect improves on accuracy going from college to the pros. And for the most part, all other physical gifted but inaccurate talents have washed out (Manuel, Bortles, Trey Lance, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins) and Josh is the once in a great while exception (who got time, coaching and a supporting cast) to develop out. And now that he has, the data supports how great he is.

[billsfan89]

Football is so insanely subjective especially when you don’t know the specifics of the plays. I don’t think PFF is worthless as it has some objective data teams do like to use and even their subjective grades are still a data point for fans. 
 

I doubt teams are genuinely using PFF grades to measure player performance as teams know it’s just someone’s opinion.

[Don Otreply]

Lots of us have been saying it for quite some time now, pff is not to be considered a serious source of information, they literally make stuff up,  they do sell “raw data “ to teams, but teams don’t treat them as gospel, nor should we, thanks  for posting this eyeball, 👍

Edited January 17 by Don Otreply

[BADOLBILZ]

 

For all the people who get exercised about the "subjectivity" of player grades..........you really should just be happy that opinions can vary on this stuff rather than worrying about how accurate their grades are.

 

Some analytics is fun.   We are still in that range right now.

 

What you don't want is to become a sport where the analytics make scouting efficient to the point that it renders outcomes too predictable.

 

Like regular season MLB where, for instance and among other things,  teams know exactly where players will hit the ball most times based on analysis of a large sample size game.   Then you gotta' put rules in place to prevent teams from playing smart.   

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, JoPoy88 said:

Glad someone of Watt’s stature finally said it. 

 

I guess he's not of Watt's stature, but I've referenced before Bills former center Eric Wood talking about PFF grading of OL play.  He discussed how coaches grade out players relative to their assignments and it looks nothing like PFF's grading.

 

1 hour ago, JoPoy88 said:

https://x.com/pff_sam/status/1747719174867079220?s=46&t=rG8S37R56ISI2zmCE2WlYQ

 

PFF’s response

 

(edit: I have no idea why X links don’t embed automatically anymore, sorry guys)

 

In a browser, if you click on the tweet so you get a URL that says "twitter" in it and copy that, it will embed.

Edited January 17 by Beck Water

[Royale with Cheese]

16 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

You really think NFL teams would pay millions of dollars for useless data? The idea that you think it's some schmuck sitting at home is part of the problem.

 

PFF employs former NFL players, especially at Tier 2 and 3 of grading. The reason why PFF grades take a couple day to update after a game is because they are not graded by one player. It gets graded by a Tier 1 analyst, then a Tier 2 analyst, and then sometimes a Tier 3 analyst. 

People will often write "they don't know the play call". These people clearly think that football is rocket science. It's not. We can see on All-22 what the play is. Especially by mid season when teams are running the same plays over and over. And no, we do not accept the idea that maybe this particular team told their left tackle to get pancaked on a counter-run because the coach told him to. No, he just got beat. 

The other excuse is "teams pay for the data, not the grades". How do you think PFF grades the player? On the data!

 

The team can just use the data and come up with their own grading system.  They are not paying for player grades.  They have their own scouting department and I think we have the most.

 

Data is objective, player grades are subjective.  Player grades are not just based on data, it's based on film. 

 

The film will show you what the play was developing into but you can't always know the exact assignment everyone is supposed to have, especially on the offensive line.  Former and current NFL players have talked about it.  That's where the issue is.  Just because someone is beat doesn't always mean it was their fault.  I have heard players give specific examples of this.

 

I don't have PFF but you do but when I looked at DT rankings....Ed Oliver is not even ranked in the top 50?  Correct me if I am wrong.

https://www.pff.com/nfl/grades/position/di

 

Edited January 17 by Royale with Cheese

[Punch]

17 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

The guys on Cover One had Aaron Schatz (the guy who invented DVOA) on to talk about this. For reference, I believe this was the guy who called Josh Allen "a parody of a QB prospect". His response was that, based on that data and trends, almost no prospect improves on accuracy going from college to the pros. And for the most part, all other physical gifted but inaccurate talents have washed out (Manuel, Bortles, Trey Lance, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins) and Josh is the once in a great while exception (who got time, coaching and a supporting cast) to develop out. And now that he has, the data supports how great he is.

 

Schatz, in particular, has staunchly defended Allen, going so far as to publish an article articulating his stance that Josh should be the QB selection for the All-Pro team. It's interesting to watch as it unfolds, and refreshing that so many analysts who held such firm opinions have been willing to reevaluate their stance and pivot to try and understand what makes Allen different (outlier or not). 

[Einstein]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

The team can just use the data and come up with their own grading system.  They are not paying for player grades.  They have their own scouting department and I think we have the most.

 

Data is objective, player grades are subjective.  Player grades are not just based on data, it's based on film. 

 

The film will show you what the play was developing into but you can't always know the exact assignment everyone is supposed to have, especially on the offensive line.  Former and current NFL players have talked about it.  That's where the issue is.  Just because someone is beat doesn't always mean it was their fault.  I have heard players give specific examples of this.

 

I don't have PFF but you do but when I looked at DT rankings....Ed Oliver is not even ranked in the top 50?  Correct me if I am wrong.

https://www.pff.com/nfl/grades/position/di

 

 

to be honest, I disagree with several of PFF grade. Ed is just one of them.

 

but keep in mind that two NFL coaches may disagree with each other on their own grading.

 

so, in my opinion, that’s not that unusual.

[Beck Water]

I'm not a scout, but I'm not sure that's the way "most NFL coaches grade" and would welcome some input on this - any input from guys who've coached at the college or HS level @HoofHearted @Buffalo716?

 

Either way, I think the main point is that the coaches (and scouts) are typically people who have a deep and nuanced knowledge of the game.  They're people who can diagnose the defensive coverage based on subtle cues like footwork and body position.  We saw this kind of thing with Tony Romo when he started his broadcast career, where he could accurately read the defense and predict what the offense was going to do and the network told him to tone it down.  The ability of these people with a lifetime football background, playing and coaching, to deduce the play call, or the coverage, or the protection call, after looking at film, is on a different level.

 

It's my understanding that PFF uses a lot of graders in Ireland and now India whose understanding of the game is taking a few training sessions.  Now they claim that only 10% of their employees finalize grades or something like that, and that everything is reviewed, but 🤷‍♂️?

 

Some critiques of PFF:

https://sportank.com/media/post/is-pff-reliable-are-they-all-that-credible

 

I picked these because neither are out to just dismiss or trash PFF.

[eball]

23 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

You really think NFL teams would pay millions of dollars for useless data? The idea that you think it's some schmuck sitting at home is part of the problem.

 

PFF employs former NFL players, especially at Tier 2 and 3 of grading. The reason why PFF grades take a couple day to update after a game is because they are not graded by one player. It gets graded by a Tier 1 analyst, then a Tier 2 analyst, and then sometimes a Tier 3 analyst. 

People will often write "they don't know the play call". These people clearly think that football is rocket science. It's not. We can see on All-22 what the play is. Especially by mid season when teams are running the same plays over and over. And no, we do not accept the idea that maybe this particular team told their left tackle to get pancaked on a counter-run because the coach told him to. No, he just got beat. 

The other excuse is "teams pay for the data, not the grades". How do you think PFF grades the player? On the data!

 

Dude, just stop.  The issue isn't that PFF's data can't be useful...but it's not as scientific and pristine as some hold it out to be.

 

And yes, there are a lot of schmucks sitting at home in front of their computers submitting PFF grades...just because an "ex-NFL player" gives it the once-over doesn't guarantee it's correctly evaluated.

 

One of the "ex-NFL players" who does (or did) their grading is Bruce Gradkowski...former journeyman QB for a number of teams.  He also used to be a frequent co-host on SiriusXM NFL Radio so I've heard him talk on a lot of NFL topics.  He's a moron.  If he was the one grading other schmucks' grades, that lessens my confidence in that data even more.