Kansas City at Buffalo in the Divisional Round!

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

29 minutes ago, NI Bills Fan said:

 

Is Taron Johnson being limited (rather than DNP) an indication that he has progressed through at least 1 of the protocol stages?

 

Also... I understand this was a walkthrough practice today. If it was an actual practice would he have been more likely to be listed as DNP? 

He would need to be in Stage 3 or 4 to be able to participate in team practices. 
 

For reference, Ty Johnson was limited all of last week and was good to go Monday

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Their offense is worse this season, notably.  They're a lot more reliant upon Pacheco and the running game than they've been in the past.  Their WRs are second-rate except for the developing rookie Rasheed.  

 

Their D is better, but only in pass D.   

 

Our fans are going to be over-the-top up for this game, it reminds me of the home playoff games of the '90s where we went expecting to win, not hoping to win.  

 

I see this as a repeat of the '91 season game where Kelly couldn't hear squat at Arrowhead, asked the officials to calm the noise, they refused.  At our home playoff game vs. the Chiefs it was so quiet when we were on offense that you could hear Kelly's calls clearly.  When the Chiefs had the ball, ... LOL, you couldn't hear yourself.  

 

Just hoping that Houston wins as I think they can.  Gotta love Stroud, and that would be a good home playoff game too, but better than @ the Ravens. 

 

 

So you are calling for a Bills win?  I have it as a toss up. 

 

You better be right!!!

[Straight Hucklebuck]

4 hours ago, SaulGoodman said:

 

And why are Bills fans so confident? Because Toney's foot was a few inches offside? A month ago, many of you expected to miss the playoffs. 

Because it's our team. 

 

We get to decide how confident we are going into a game. 

 

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

26 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

Baldy after the regular season game on part of the Chiefs strategy

 

 

 

What I'll say is different (and what I hope is the difference maker) is that since then we have seen Brady roll out blitz beaters. I am sure there are more than this, but what stands out to me are these:

Cook TD after the Cover 0 blitz

 

I can't find a link, but Kincaid had a great reel in on a 3rd and short vs Miami 

 

A bunch of examples from Baldinger from the Steelers game

 

 

Edited January 17 by WhitewalkerInPhilly

[BillsFan130]

28 minutes ago, Brand J said:

So we can be the first team to beat him twice in his career and the second win sends him home. I love the sound of that. 

Sorry I misunderstood your post. You said has a team "beaten Mahomes" twice in his career.

 

That is actually a good question. Not at the top of my head 

[ToGoGo]

47 minutes ago, Brand J said:

Has a team beaten Patty twice in the same season?

2023/2024 Buffalo Bills. 

[ToGoGo]

28 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

I know I was in a bit of freakout mode yesterday but I am calming down a bit.

 

I noticed through the season some of the things that you pointed out when it came to "struggling Bills" narratives vs the "elite" Chiefs but you are putting them all together.

 

• Like you said, "Mr. Turnover" Josh Allen and "GOAT" Mahomes have very close splits this year in TD/INT: 29/18 for Josh and 27/14 for Mahomes (disregarding Allen's 15 rushing touchdowns)
• The Chief's elite D is 2nd is points allowed...and the Bills are 4th. The Bills allow 10 more yards per game.
• Bills are 6th in Points per game scores while the Chiefs are 15th. 5th in rushing while the Chiefs are 18th, but we should worry about being outmuscled by the Chiefs.
• The Bills struggled against inferior opponents after the Cowboys, barely beating the Chargers and Patriots and Dolphins while the Chiefs...lost to the Packers, lost the Bills and lost to the Raiders while not looking like world beaters vs the eliminated Pats and Bengals.

 

Plus, as people have pointed out: Allen and the Bills went through their gauntlet and gelled. The Chiefs defense, impressive as it is, drops in effectiveness when they don't have the record sound at Arrowhead drowning out play calls.

 

Out of those 3-3 splits (but 0-2 in the playoffs!) media heads have been harping on 5 out of 6 were in Arrowhead. The one game in Buffalo was in October 2020, (someone correct me if I am wrong) a brisk clear day in an empty stadium with no fans. Mahomes has never played at Highmark with Bills fans allowed in.   Mahomes has never played a road AFC playoff game with a hostile crowd. This is a sold out playoff game where Bills Mafia is going to be out of its mind.

 

Now, it's far from a sure thing, but the more I see the more I am settling down.

 

 

 

 

The second you ignore the narratives and look at the situation for yourself, the more it’s feeling like the Chiefs are due for an ass beating. 

[Gregg]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/patrick-mahomes-isn-t-afraid-of-buffalo-bills-fans-in-orchard-park/ar-AA1n8T4x?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=6bda3ac0dcbe4077a54549bb3518ffc4&ei=14

[ALG1130]

3 minutes ago, Gregg said:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/patrick-mahomes-isn-t-afraid-of-buffalo-bills-fans-in-orchard-park/ar-AA1n8T4x?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=6bda3ac0dcbe4077a54549bb3518ffc4&ei=14

You can't blame him though. He has two rings, and nothing to be "afraid" of. I think some players feed off the crazy environments. Josh has talked at hand how much he loves playing at Arrowhead.

[Beck Water]

3 minutes ago, Aimee75 said:

You can't blame him though. He has two rings, and nothing to be "afraid" of. I think some players feed off the crazy environments. Josh has talked at hand how much he loves playing at Arrowhead.

 

Well, the other thing he knows is that just like other noisy environments, Highmark does calm down a lot if his team were to manage to get out to an early lead.

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Our Achilles heel on D in the playoffs against Mahomes has been in large part a woefully underperforming pass rush—if Rousseau really wants to cement his place as the next iteration of Bruce Smith, now would be a great time for a statement game—also building on what’s already been a great year for him so far. Looking for big things from our D line to help offset the injury holes in the middle and back end of the D. 

[Putin]

Has Patty beat the Bills without Tyreek ? 
if I’m not mistaken he’s 0-2 since Tyreek went to play with the most accurate QB he’s ever see 

[ALG1130]

13 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Well, the other thing he knows is that just like other noisy environments, Highmark does calm down a lot if his team were to manage to get out to an early lead.

This is true. I hope the crowd will stay loud and frenzied, but I don't totally trust it.

[beebe]

8 hours ago, eball said:

Question:  when is the last time KC faced a top tier QB on the road and won?  They haven’t even done well against elite QBs at home.  This season they lost to Love at GB, lost to Allen at home, lost to Hurts at home…they beat Tua in Germany and at home, but we know who Tua is…

 

I just looked at their game splits and this Chiefs team is completely underwhelming.  They finished the regular season on a 5-5 “run” — winning their last two in unimpressive fashion against the Browning Bengals and Hockey Stick Chargers (when everyone was rested).

 

The last time Mahomes threw for 300 yards?  Against the Chargers in W7.

 

I think there is an overwhelming sentiment, because of who Mahomes and the Chiefs have been, that they are still an “elite” team.  Do we really believe that their win in an Ice Bowl against the quitting, stinking Fish means they are “back?”  I’d suggest they haven’t played a complete game since W7, and they really have no impressive victories at all this season.

 

And while we’re at it, let’s talk about turnovers.  The “turnover machine” Josh Allen-led Bills have turned it over 28 times through 18 games…the Chiefs have turned it over 29.

 

I get it, the Bills’ defense is injury ravaged and we’re all anxious because of our BBFS…but on paper this game doesn’t look like a “pick ‘em” at all.

 

I’ll never underestimate Mahomes or Kelce, and the Bills need to focus on continuing to shut down the run…but this is our time to end the Chiefs’ run.

 

Go Bills!!!

 

15 and 6, Babyyyyyy!!!!!

 

 

 

A few thoughts/rebuttals:

 

1. This was the worst year for QBs on record. Basically 75% of the league lost their starting QB for significant time or for the season. In the AFC alone, the Jets, Texans, Colts, Titans, Jaguars, Browns, Bengals, Steelers, Chargers, Raiders and Broncos all turned to backups. There weren't many truly elite teams this year, and as a result, the overall list of "impressive" wins this year isn't very long for many playoff teams. 

 

2. The Chiefs, by their own admission, basically went the entire season and never once 'put it all together' on offense. They thought they had a surplus of young promising receivers when the year began. By midseason, it was clear that this was the worst receiving corps in the league. Not only was it bad, but it was also banged up. Six of the eight receivers on the roster missed time - Hardman (two months), Ross (two months), James (two months), Toney (in and out all year), Moore (one month), Watson (1 game) - and Kelce has had lingering issues all year. McKinnon, their best pass-catching back, also missed time down the stretch and is out for the season. Pacheco also missed time (including the first game vs Bills). It wasn't until before the Bengals game where the Chiefs finally made an adjustment. They simplified the offense and placed hyper emphasis on breaking the huddle early, getting to the LOS, and maximizing their opportunity for presnap reads. Andy commented again today that this has helped them. The offense had their best game of the year vs the Bengals but stalled out in the red zone consistently, ultimately settling for six field goals. In the playoff game against Miami, the Chiefs again broke the huddle quicker than they did all year. They force fed Kelce, Pacheco and Rice - rather than dialing up plays for their army of receivers like they did all season - and were rewarded by Rice's best game as a pro. They settled for too many field goals vs Miami (four FGs inside 32 yards) but the offense turned in a nice game in brutal conditions. 

 

3. The Chiefs defense, even when adjusting for strength of opponent, still rates out very strong. It is clearly the best Chiefs defense of the Mahomes era by pretty much every measure. They have rushed the passer well, and their DBs Sneed and McDuffie are clearly one of the best duos in the league. Sneed has taken out basically every elite receiver he has faced, including Diggs in the first matchup. Their LBs are very deep with Bolton, Gay and Tranquill. Chris Jones is Chris Jones, and Omenihu (missed first six games of the year) and Karlaftis are both playing extremely well down the stretch. I'm near certain this is a top-5 level defense, and Spags is well known for saving his best stuff for playoff time. (Even in the years KC's defense was below average, they surpassed expectations in the playoffs). 

 

4. You are correct in pointing out that the Chiefs turned it over a bunch this year. They finished the year -11 in net turnovers, 4th worst in the league, and also the worst they've fared in the Andy Reid era. They were also third worst in net penalties. They were the only team in the league who finished among the bottom 10 in both net turnovers and net penalties and still made the playoffs. The fact that they went 11-6 despite this probably speaks more to their upside than them being overrated. Cleaning up turnovers and penalties are controllable. 

 

5. The Chiefs were bad down the stretch. However, it's worth noting that they had a historic rest disadvantage from Weeks 12-thru-17. Every single opponent, including the Bills who came off a bye, held a rest advantage over the Chiefs. It amounted to -20 days of rest/prep in six weeks for the Chiefs, the most in 35 years of data per Warren Sharp. 

 

The Chiefs obviously aren't a perfect team. And due to the offense's struggles this year, they rate out as a worse team this year than last year by advanced metrics. But if they clean up their mistakes, their true upside seems higher. This year's defense is definitely better than last year's. And this year's offense is essentially the same as last year's personnel wise - outside of swapping Rice for JuJu, and Kelce being a step slower. The Chiefs beat the Bengals last year in the AFC title game even after losing JuJu and Hardman to injury, and with Mahomes playing on a high ankle sprain throwing to guys like Marcus Kemp and MVS (star of the game!) Then the Chiefs beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl despite Mahomes reaggravating his high ankle sprain and again while throwing to a collection of bottom feeder receivers. 

 

When you shake everything up in the snow globe, the Bills (even despite their 6-6 start) graded out as a better team than the Chiefs. The Bills are favored by 2.5 points and would also be favored slightly on a neutral field. They're the better overall team through 18 games of results. But I wouldn't dismiss the Chiefs based on the regular season results. I think they're much scarier than these results suggest - and like many teams, they were a few dropped passes (Toney vs Lions, MVS vs Eagles), a blown call (Packers) and self destruction (Toney vs Bills) away from being something closer to a 13-4 team than 11-6. 

Edited January 17 by beebe

[Process]

Are they ever not the healthiest team in the entire league? It's ridiculous. 

 

 

[balln]

13 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Our Achilles heel on D in the playoffs against Mahomes has been in large part a woefully underperforming pass rush—if Rousseau really wants to cement his place as the next iteration of Bruce Smith, now would be a great time for a statement game—also building on what’s already been a great year for him so far. Looking for big things from our D line to help offset the injury holes in the middle and back end of the D. 

Lol. Rousseau was never gonna be Bruce smith. He’s more shaq lawson 

[finn]

7 minutes ago, Putin said:

Has Patty beat the Bills without Tyreek ? 
if I’m not mistaken he’s 0-2 since Tyreek went to play with the most accurate QB he’s ever see 

I haven't heard a single commentator point out that maybe, just maybe, Mahomes did as well as he did in his career because he was throwing to two future HOF receivers. TWO! And his down year (relatively speaking) may be how he performs when he has the same quality receivers most of his peers have.

 

He's terrific, but hardly the Messiah Who Must Not Be Criticized. 

[PBF81]

48 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

So you are calling for a Bills win?  I have it as a toss up. 

 

You better be right!!!

 

LOL 

 

Yeah, I do.  

 

We're the better team.  Of course that's also assuming we don't outcoach ourselves.  

 

 

[balln]

4 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

LOL 

 

Yeah, I do.  

 

We're the better team.  Of course that's also assuming we don't outcoach ourselves.  

 

 

We’re better when healthy. We’re woefully unhealthy 

[Success]

8 minutes ago, balln said:

We’re better when healthy. We’re woefully unhealthy 

 

I wouldn't say woefully. We're about as banged up as many teams are at this stage of the season. The Chiefs just happen to be healthy by comparison.

 

I anticipate most of the guys on our injury report will play on Sunday. That's just how it goes in January.