MPL Posted January 12 Posted January 12 If the forecasts hold, we're looking at wind game 2.0. Based on the previous wind game, a lot of us aren't feeling great about that (myself included). So I went back and watched the 2021 game against New England to see if there was anything I could take away that would leave me feeling encouraged... and there is. GAME RECAP: 1st HALF The Patriots got the ball first and gained -1 yards on 3 plays. Bills run D was on it. Pats punt and Buffalo starts near midfield. Buffalo runs on 1st and 2nd down gaining 3 yards. On 3rd and 7, Dawson Knox drops a pass that would have likely gone for a first down. Bills punt. Pats 2nd drive gains 5 yards. Bills run D looks good. Pats punt and it's a bad one. Bills get the ball at the NE 40. On 1st down, the Bills try a WR screen to Emanuel Sanders (remember him?) that gets blown up for a 3-yard loss. This is followed by a 4-yard run and then a defensive neutral zone infraction on NE. On 3rd and 4, the Bills complete a 5-yard pass to Matt Breida for the first down. Bills have it inside the NE 30. The very next play is a stretch to Breida and Breida just drops the handoff. NE Recovers. Pats have it at their own 31. They run twice and gain a few yards, nothing major. And then on 3rd and 5, Damien Harris goes 67 yards for a TD. NE goes for 2 and gets it. Next Bills drive picks up a first down after an 8-yard pass to Diggs and a Singletary run. the next play, Josh Allen scrambles for 2 yards followed by a 1-yard singletary run. Then we get a holding on Spencer Brown on 3rd down, making it 3rd and 17. Drive killed. Bills punt. BUT, the ball takes a weird bounce and hits the Pats punt returner and the the Bills recover. One play later, Josh Allen throws a slant to Gabe Davis for a TD. Next Patriots drive goes 10 plays with some solid run gains and a bobbling circus catch by Jonnu Smith on Mac's only pass attempt of the 1st half. Pats stall at the Buffalo 25 and kick a field goal. Bills get a solid kickoff return. They pick up 2 first downs and get to the NE 40. Then it's a 1-yard run, delay of game, 5-yard sack, and now it's 3rd and 19. Drive killed. Bills pint. Pats go 3 and out. Run D looks good again. Pats punt. Bills go 3 and out after the 3rd and short pass is batted down at the line. Bills punt. Pats go 3 and out. Punt. End of 1st Half. Score is 11-7 Patriots. 2nd HALF Bills start their first drive with an 11-yard pass to cole beasley. Then they gain 5 on a 1st-down run. That's followed by 2 Josh Allen incompletions to receivers that are pretty well covered. Bills punt. New England picks up a first down running the ball and then get a holding penalty that backs them up. NE Punts. Bills start at their own 37. 1st play is a short pass to Sanders that goes for 19. Then Allen throws a go route to Diggs, who has his man beat, but the ball is moving in the air and Diggs is having trouble tracking it. It bounces off of Diggs extended forearm in the endzone and falls incomplete. On 3rd and 7, Josh scrambles and is pushed OB 1 -yard short but a late hit on NE gives the Bills 15-yards and a first down. Bills have it at the NE 20. Zack Moss 3-yard run. Incomplete pass. Incomplete pass. Tyler Bass field goal is good. NE leads 11-10. Patriots receive the kick to start the 4th quarter and go on a 15-play, 8:34 drive that includes 3 runs of over 10 yards and Mac Jones QB sneak on 3rd and 5 that goes for 4 yards, followed by a Mac Jones QB sneak on 4th and 1 that converts. The Bills stop the drive in the red zone and NE kicks another field goal. NE leads 14-10. Bills start their next drive at their own 36. Allen completes to Knox for 7 yards. Allen completes to Diggs for 11. Allen tries a deep shot to Sanders, incomplete. Allen scrambles and picks up 21. Allen passes to Moss for 7 and 15 yards is tacked on for a horse collar tackle. Bills have it at the NE 6. Then it's a 0-yard rush by Zack Moss. On 2nd down, Josh takes a bad sack and loses 9 yards. Now it's 3rd and goal from the 15. Incomplete pass. Bass misses the field goal wide right. Pats take over and go 3 and out. Bills get it back at their own 20. Josh throws a beautiful back shoulder pass to Diggs who toes the sideline for a 26-yard gain. 5 yard pass to Moss. 7 yard pass to Knox. 17 yard run by Singletary down to the NE 25. 6-yard pass. 5-yard run. 1st and goal at the NE 14. 1st down is a run that goes for 1 yard. 2nd down is an incomplete pass. On 3rd and 9, Dawson Knox jumps and makes it 3rd and 14. On 3rd and 14, Allen has Diggs wide-open over the middle and it might go for a TD but there's pressure in his face and Josh bails, never seeing Diggs. He tries to force one to Knox in the end zone but it gets broken up. On 4th and 14, Josh is pressured again and has to throw off his back foot, attempting to get it to Davis who is running post in the end zone, but one of the NE cornerbacks comes off the underneath route and knocks the ball down. Game over. THOUGHTS AFTER REWATCHING The Bills had 3 linebackers on the field a lot. Edmunds, Milano, and Dodson played a ton of snaps. All 3 linebackers had a forgettable night but Edmunds was baddddddd. He just didn't fit the run well at all, constantly getting blocked at the 2nd level and taken out of the play. Milano struggled early but made some plays late. Dodson just wasn't very good at this point in time. The narrative is that the Bills waited too long to start throwing the ball, but they did try and throw the ball consistently throughout the game. Josh Allen was 5-7 with a TD at one point in the first half. He was also 7-10 at one point in the 2nd half. There were some drops that hurt the Bills (what's new), and Allen forcing into tight coverage a few times. But they moved the ball okay through the air, and overall, the Bills got into scoring position more than the Patriots did. Penalties, predictable play-calling in the red zone is really what hurt the Bills in this game. They had 3 red zone possessions that resulted in 0 points. Turn 1 of those into a TD or 2 of those into field goals and the Bills win. HOW IT RELATES TO THIS WEEKEND I think the Steelers are similar to the 2021 Patriots. Good defense, good physical running backs, and a weak-armed QB who is playing smart and taking what the defense gives him. I think Mason Rudolph is playing around the same level that Mac Jones was in 2021, when people were calling him the Baby GOAT. The difference is the Steelers have receivers that can turn a quick slant into a long TD. The argument can be made that this game is setting up well for the Steelers, especially given Buffalo's history of wind games. This looks like it could be a very, very similar game. REASONS TO FEEL CONFIDENT The 2023 Bills Defense fits the run much better. 2023 Ed Oliver is much better than 2021 Ed Oliver. Daquan Jones is much better than Harrison Phillips. 2023 Groot is better than 2021 Groot, and Leonard Floyd is better than Jerry Hughes. Tremaine Edmunds has gone and Bernard has shown much better instincts in run defense. I think 2023 defense only struggles against the run when they have to account for the passing game, which is why Miami had success in the 1st half last week. The Bills o-line is much better in 2023 than it was in 2021. Allen was not used much as a runner in the 2021 wind game. At that point in the season, he was really trying to be a pocket guy. If Allen had run a few more times in that game, they likely would have won. This year, Allen is in playoff mode, which means, Allen will run more than he did in the 2021 game. 2 2 Quote
Motorin' Posted January 12 Posted January 12 The main difference will be, they held Josh back from running against NE. If the wind is that serious, Josh may end up being this game's leading rusher. 1 Quote
BuffaloBillyG Posted January 12 Posted January 12 My main takeaway from that game was just how bad AJE was at setting the edge. At least twice he got taken out by a WR (Myers IIRC) coming back to seal him off. He hasn't gotten better with time. Good pass rusher though. 1 Quote
WhitewalkerInPhilly Posted January 12 Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, MPL said: If the forecasts hold, we're looking at wind game 2.0. Based on the previous wind game, a lot of us aren't feeling great about that (myself included). So I went back and watched the 2021 game against New England to see if there was anything I could take away that would leave me feeling encouraged... and there is. GAME RECAP: 1st HALF The Patriots got the ball first and gained -1 yards on 3 plays. Bills run D was on it. Pats punt and Buffalo starts near midfield. Buffalo runs on 1st and 2nd down gaining 3 yards. On 3rd and 7, Dawson Knox drops a pass that would have likely gone for a first down. Bills punt. Pats 2nd drive gains 5 yards. Bills run D looks good. Pats punt and it's a bad one. Bills get the ball at the NE 40. On 1st down, the Bills try a WR screen to Emanuel Sanders (remember him?) that gets blown up for a 3-yard loss. This is followed by a 4-yard run and then a defensive neutral zone infraction on NE. On 3rd and 4, the Bills complete a 5-yard pass to Matt Breida for the first down. Bills have it inside the NE 30. The very next play is a stretch to Breida and Breida just drops the handoff. NE Recovers. Pats have it at their own 31. They run twice and gain a few yards, nothing major. And then on 3rd and 5, Damien Harris goes 67 yards for a TD. NE goes for 2 and gets it. Next Bills drive picks up a first down after an 8-yard pass to Diggs and a Singletary run. the next play, Josh Allen scrambles for 2 yards followed by a 1-yard singletary run. Then we get a holding on Spencer Brown on 3rd down, making it 3rd and 17. Drive killed. Bills punt. BUT, the ball takes a weird bounce and hits the Pats punt returner and the the Bills recover. One play later, Josh Allen throws a slant to Gabe Davis for a TD. Next Patriots drive goes 10 plays with some solid run gains and a bobbling circus catch by Jonnu Smith on Mac's only pass attempt of the 1st half. Pats stall at the Buffalo 25 and kick a field goal. Bills get a solid kickoff return. They pick up 2 first downs and get to the NE 40. Then it's a 1-yard run, delay of game, 5-yard sack, and now it's 3rd and 19. Drive killed. Bills pint. Pats go 3 and out. Run D looks good again. Pats punt. Bills go 3 and out after the 3rd and short pass is batted down at the line. Bills punt. Pats go 3 and out. Punt. End of 1st Half. Score is 11-7 Patriots. 2nd HALF Bills start their first drive with an 11-yard pass to cole beasley. Then they gain 5 on a 1st-down run. That's followed by 2 Josh Allen incompletions to receivers that are pretty well covered. Bills punt. New England picks up a first down running the ball and then get a holding penalty that backs them up. NE Punts. Bills start at their own 37. 1st play is a short pass to Sanders that goes for 19. Then Allen throws a go route to Diggs, who has his man beat, but the ball is moving in the air and Diggs is having trouble tracking it. It bounces off of Diggs extended forearm in the endzone and falls incomplete. On 3rd and 7, Josh scrambles and is pushed OB 1 -yard short but a late hit on NE gives the Bills 15-yards and a first down. Bills have it at the NE 20. Zack Moss 3-yard run. Incomplete pass. Incomplete pass. Tyler Bass field goal is good. NE leads 11-10. Patriots receive the kick to start the 4th quarter and go on a 15-play, 8:34 drive that includes 3 runs of over 10 yards and Mac Jones QB sneak on 3rd and 5 that goes for 4 yards, followed by a Mac Jones QB sneak on 4th and 1 that converts. The Bills stop the drive in the red zone and NE kicks another field goal. NE leads 14-10. Bills start their next drive at their own 36. Allen completes to Knox for 7 yards. Allen completes to Diggs for 11. Allen tries a deep shot to Sanders, incomplete. Allen scrambles and picks up 21. Allen passes to Moss for 7 and 15 yards is tacked on for a horse collar tackle. Bills have it at the NE 6. Then it's a 0-yard rush by Zack Moss. On 2nd down, Josh takes a bad sack and loses 9 yards. Now it's 3rd and goal from the 15. Incomplete pass. Bass misses the field goal wide right. Pats take over and go 3 and out. Bills get it back at their own 20. Josh throws a beautiful back shoulder pass to Diggs who toes the sideline for a 26-yard gain. 5 yard pass to Moss. 7 yard pass to Knox. 17 yard run by Singletary down to the NE 25. 6-yard pass. 5-yard run. 1st and goal at the NE 14. 1st down is a run that goes for 1 yard. 2nd down is an incomplete pass. On 3rd and 9, Dawson Knox jumps and makes it 3rd and 14. On 3rd and 14, Allen has Diggs wide-open over the middle and it might go for a TD but there's pressure in his face and Josh bails, never seeing Diggs. He tries to force one to Knox in the end zone but it gets broken up. On 4th and 14, Josh is pressured again and has to throw off his back foot, attempting to get it to Davis who is running post in the end zone, but one of the NE cornerbacks comes off the underneath route and knocks the ball down. Game over. THOUGHTS AFTER REWATCHING The Bills had 3 linebackers on the field a lot. Edmunds, Milano, and Dodson played a ton of snaps. All 3 linebackers had a forgettable night but Edmunds was baddddddd. He just didn't fit the run well at all, constantly getting blocked at the 2nd level and taken out of the play. Milano struggled early but made some plays late. Dodson just wasn't very good at this point in time. The narrative is that the Bills waited too long to start throwing the ball, but they did try and throw the ball consistently throughout the game. Josh Allen was 5-7 with a TD at one point in the first half. He was also 7-10 at one point in the 2nd half. There were some drops that hurt the Bills (what's new), and Allen forcing into tight coverage a few times. But they moved the ball okay through the air, and overall, the Bills got into scoring position more than the Patriots did. Penalties, predictable play-calling in the red zone is really what hurt the Bills in this game. They had 3 red zone possessions that resulted in 0 points. Turn 1 of those into a TD or 2 of those into field goals and the Bills win. HOW IT RELATES TO THIS WEEKEND I think the Steelers are similar to the 2021 Patriots. Good defense, good physical running backs, and a weak-armed QB who is playing smart and taking what the defense gives him. I think Mason Rudolph is playing around the same level that Mac Jones was in 2021, when people were calling him the Baby GOAT. The difference is the Steelers have receivers that can turn a quick slant into a long TD. The argument can be made that this game is setting up well for the Steelers, especially given Buffalo's history of wind games. This looks like it could be a very, very similar game. REASONS TO FEEL CONFIDENT The 2023 Bills Defense fits the run much better. 2023 Ed Oliver is much better than 2021 Ed Oliver. Daquan Jones is much better than Harrison Phillips. 2023 Groot is better than 2021 Groot, and Leonard Floyd is better than Jerry Hughes. Tremaine Edmunds has gone and Bernard has shown much better instincts in run defense. I think 2023 defense only struggles against the run when they have to account for the passing game, which is why Miami had success in the 1st half last week. The Bills o-line is much better in 2023 than it was in 2021. Allen was not used much as a runner in the 2021 wind game. At that point in the season, he was really trying to be a pocket guy. If Allen had run a few more times in that game, they likely would have won. This year, Allen is in playoff mode, which means, Allen will run more than he did in the 2021 game. I've been thinking about it too. The 2023 Bills are more physical and more battle tested tested than the 2021 Bills full stop. I loved the 2021 Bills, but they got bullied and were more of a finesse team. I trust our RB group, O-line and rushing D more. Thanks for the breakdown! 1 Quote
SCBills Posted January 12 Posted January 12 (edited) I do think McDermott has shown that if you’re one-dimensional, he will shut you down. If we activate Joseph, we have a strong run stuffing DL with Joseph, Ford, Jones, Oliver and three guys who are very strong at setting the edge in Rousseau, Floyd and Lawson. We have Josh Allen, who can play in any weather, but when he’s able to throw through snow and wind.. can our receivers catch it? … that was the issue in the wind game when we finally let Allen throw. If Allen is able to, even somewhat, sustain a passing attack, we should run away with this game. Biggest worries, aside from turnovers, are a missed run fit … even in games where we dominate, we’re susceptible to one explosive run here and there. That can’t happen in a game like this. We also can’t let a screen pass or quick slant to Johnson/Pickens go to the house. See, wind game, with the one explosive run. On Offense, I don’t know how to feel about Cook in this game. Ever since the Dallas game, he’s been underwhelming. He’s a big play threat whenever he touches the ball, but in a game where 3 yard runs need to be “fall forward” for 4-5 yards and open field juke moves might not be ideal… im not sure what to expect from him. Edited January 12 by SCBills 2 Quote
strive_for_five_guy Posted January 12 Posted January 12 Add in snow, visibility and traction will be limited too. Quote
MPL Posted January 12 Author Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, SCBills said: I do think McDermott has shown that if you’re one-dimensional, he will shut you down. If we activate Joseph, we have a strong run stuffing DL with Joseph, Ford, Jones, Oliver and three guys who are very strong at setting the edge in Rousseau, Floyd and Lawson. We have Josh Allen, who can play in any weather, but when he’s able to throw through snow and wind.. can our receivers catch it? … that was the issue in the wind game when we finally let Allen throw. If Allen is able to, even somewhat, sustain a passing attack, we should run away with this game. Biggest worries, aside from turnovers, are a missed run fit … even in games where we dominate, we’re susceptible to one explosive run here and there. That can’t happen in a game like this. We also can’t let a screen pass or quick slant to Johnson/Pickens go to the house. On Offense, I don’t know how to feel about Cook in this game. Ever since the Dallas game, he’s been underwhelming. He’s a big play threat whenever he touches the ball, but in a game where 3 yard runs need to be “fall forward” for 4-5 yards and open field juke moves might not be ideal… im not sure what to expect from him. Dropped passes are definitely a cause for concern. In rewatching the 2021 game, I think they actually did let Allen throw right from the start. At times, they got away from the run sooner than they should have. They would get a solid gain on a first down run and then follow it up with 2 incompletions or a holding penalty on a pass attempt. Allen tried to fit some tight passes in and defenders made plays on the ball. But yeah, drops hurt them, and that's also been an issue for this team in non-weather games. I'm hoping what we saw out of Kincaid, Knox, and Shakir in the 2nd half of the Miami game translates to this game. Gotta have those quick hot routes ready to go because trying to force the ball downfield is going to be challenging. If Josh can threaten the defense enough with the run, the lanes for shorter passes and easier completions should open up. 6 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said: Add in snow, visibility and traction will be limited too. One thing at a time! 😖 1 Quote
SectionC3 Posted January 12 Posted January 12 I was a the wind game (longtime STH). We didn’t throw the ball enough. End of story. The short/short intermediate stuff was there, particularly on play action. And there were chances for big plays. Diggs dropped a beautiful ball (it would have been a tough catch) on the tunnel end/visitors side that would have given us the win. The problem for Sunday is the combination of the wind and the snow. Lifelong Southtowner, longtime STH, and I’m telling everyone that this is not a good forecast. I’m on the “move the game to Monday” team for public safety reasons. Quote
MPL Posted January 12 Author Posted January 12 Just now, SectionC3 said: I was a the wind game (longtime STH). We didn’t throw the ball enough. End of story. The short/short intermediate stuff was there, particularly on play action. And there were chances for big plays. Diggs dropped a beautiful ball (it would have been a tough catch) on the tunnel end/visitors side that would have given us the win. The problem for Sunday is the combination of the wind and the snow. Lifelong Southtowner, longtime STH, and I’m telling everyone that this is not a good forecast. I’m on the “move the game to Monday” team for public safety reasons. I'm in favor of this move the game to Monday. Is there a petition I can sign? Quote
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.